Basel and Valencia previews and predictions

It’s not like a 17-time Grand Slam champion is going to lose much sleep over World Tour Finals qualification in the 16th year of his illustrious career, but it would offer the chance for a decent ending to what has been an otherwise disappointing season. Roger Federer can make progress toward a London berth when he takes the court for just the second time since the U.S. Open this week at the Swiss Indoors Basel.

Federer headlines a strong field that is now missing Rafael Nadal following the world No. 1’s withdrawal, but along with Federer it still boasts Juan Martin Del Potro, Tomas Berdych, Stanislas Wawrinka, and Richard Gasquet. Meanwhile, an arguably even more intriguing draw from top to bottom at the Valencia Open includes David Ferrer and Tommy Haas.

Swiss Indoors Basel

Where: Basel, Switzerland
Surface: Indoor hard
Points: 500
Prize money: 1,988,835 Euros

Top seed: Juan Martin Del Potro
Defending champion: Juan Martin Del Potro

Draw analysis: Federer’s chances for a sixth Basel title improved tenfold when Nadal pulled out earlier this week, and the draw certainly did nothing to diminish those chances. The No. 3 seed’s fellow seeds in the bottom half of the bracket are Berdych, Kei Nishikori, and Grigor Dimitrov. Berdych has been dealing with a minor back problem, Nishikori is far from his best at the moment, and Dimitrov has to make a quick turnaround in the aftermath of Sunday’s Stockholm title match. Federer will first open with Adrian Mannarino, whom he destroyed 6-3, 6-0, 6-2 at this summer’s U.S. Open. Berdych, on the other hand, faces a potentially brutal road with Ivo Karlovic in the first round and either Vasek Pospisil or Vienna runner-up Robin Haase in the last 16.

Switzerland’s No. 2  player, Wawrinka, also has favorable draw. He is in by far the weakest section of the bracket; one that also is home to Andreas Seppi (arguably the weakest of the eight seeds), Daniel Brands, and Edouard Roger-Vasselin—who will face Wawrinka in round one and is coming off a retirement in a Moscow quarterfinal match against Seppi. Del Potro, the 2012 champ, will have a good chance to make another run with his nearest seed—Gasquet—making a quick trip to Basel right after winning the Moscow title. The Argentine could meet a still-slumping Marcos Baghdatis in the second round.

First-round upset alert: Radek Stepanek over (8) Grigor Dimitrov. Dimitrov’s career is still young, but he has never fared well in the department of sustained success. He can get hot one week then lose to anyone on tour the next. The Bulgarian will be trying to post back-to-back awesome weeks after upsetting Ferrer on Sunday. Dimitrov will have to get right back in gear against Stepanek, whose aggressive style often works well on indoor hard courts. The Czech advanced two rounds in Valencia before losing to Haas–the eventual champion–in a competitive quarterfinal.

Hot: Juan Martin Del Potro, Stanislas Wawrinka, Richard Gasquet, Kenny De Schepper, Denis Istomin, Vasek Pospisil

Cold: Roger Federer, Marcos Baghdatis, Horacio Zeballos

Quarterfinal predictions: Juan Martin Del Potro over Richard Gasquet, Stanislas Wawrinka over Andreas Seppi, Roger Federer over Alexandr Dolgopolov, and Ivan Dodig over Vasek Pospisil

Semifinals: Del Potro over Wawrinka and Federer over Dodig

Final: Del Potro over Federer

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Valencia Open 500

Where: Valencia, Spain
Surface: Indoor hard
Points: 500
Prize money: 2,171,095 Euros

Top seed: David Ferrer
Defending champion: David Ferrer

Draw analysis: The intrigue in Basel comes with a handful of World Tour Finals contenders and some potential blockbuster matchups during the final weekend. Valencia’s story is a much different one. The field is not as top-heavy as that in Basel, but it makes for intriguing matchups right from the start. Among the first-round showdowns are Ferrer vs. Gael Monfils, John Isner vs. Ernests Gulbis, Mikhail Youzhny vs. Bernard Tomic, and Haas vs. Philipp Kohlschreiber.

To say Ferrer drew the shortest end of the stick would be an understatement. Not only does he have to play Monfils immediately after a title-winning run in Stockholm, but he could also face either Feliciano Lopez or Julien Benneteau in the second round and Jerzy Janowicz in the quarterfinals. If there is a weak spot in the draw, it is the second section—and to a lesser extent the third. A semifinal spot is wide open for either Nicolas Almagro or Fernando Verdasco and the Isner-Gulbis winner will also have a great chance to reach the last four.

First-round upset alert: Gael Monfils over (1) David Ferrer. Monfils has a lot going for him heading into this one, although one of those factors certainly isn’t a recent first-round Vienna loss to Jaroslav Pospisil. But that appears to be more of an aberration than the rule for the Frenchman, who is healthy and heating up this fall. Ferrer, meanwhile, is coming off a long week in Stockholm after losing the title match there to Dimitrov. Monfils is already 3-1 lifetime against Ferrer, so he has to feel good about his chances of making it four out of five.

Hot: Tommy Haas, Fabio Fognini, Ernests Gulbis, Mikhail Youzhny

Cold: Jerzy Janowicz, Kevin Anderson, Janko Tipsarevic, Martin Klizan, Bernard Tomic

Quarterfinal predictions: Jerzy Janowicz over Julien Benneteau, Nicolas Almagro over Marcel Granollers, Ernests Gulbis over Dmitry Tursunov, and Mikhail Youhny over Benoit Paire

Semifinals: Almagro over Janowicz over Youzhny over Gulbis

Final: Almagro over Youzhny

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Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!