Barcelona QF previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Chung, Thiem vs. Sugita

Rafael Nadal had been on a quarterfinal collision course with Alexander Zverev, but the Spaniard will instead go up against Hyeon Chung on Friday in Barcelona. Dominic Thiem and Yuichi Sugita are also aiming for a place in the last four.

(Q) Hyeon Chung vs. (3) Rafael Nadal

Nadal and Chung will be going head-to-head for the first time in their careers when they battle for a spot in the semifinals of the Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell on Friday. It has already been an incredible week for Chung–in fact, it has to be considered his best-ever performance at the ATP level. The 20-year-old South Korean, ranked No. 96 in the world, qualified for the main draw with victories over Ernests Gulbis and Guido Pella before taking out Denis Istomin, Philipp Kohlschreiber, and Alexander Zverev. Chung has not dropped a single set in five matches and only Gulbis has even managed to force a tiebreaker.

It is safe to say, however, that the competition level now ratchets up to a dramatic extent. Nadal is 50-3 lifetime in Barcelona with nine titles and he is 26-5 this season, including 7-0 on clay. The fifth-ranked Spaniard has maintained his fine form from Monte-Carlo–where he captured his 10th title at the tournament last week–with routine wins at the expense of Rogerio Dutra Silva and Kevin Anderson. Chung is playing arguably the best tennis of his career, but it is never easy to face Nadal–especially not for the first time and on clay.

Pick: Nadal in 2 losing 5-7 games

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(4) Dominic Thiem vs. (LL) Yuichi Sugita

Chung is not the most surprising quarterfinalist of the week. That distinction belongs to Sugita, who fell to Steven Diez in the final round of qualifying but got a lucky-loser spot in the main draw when fellow Japanese star Kei Nishikori withdrew because of a wrist injury. The rest is history; Sugita has made the most of his opportunity with defeats of Tommy Robredo, Richard Gasquet (in a third-set tiebreaker), and Pablo Carreno Busta on his way to the last eight. The world No. 91 had not played a main-draw match at the ATP level in 2017 prior to this week and he had never won a main-draw match at ATP-level on clay in his entire career.

Up next for Sugita on Friday is a first-ever meeting with Thiem. The ninth-ranked Austrian would actually qualify for London with room to spare if the season ended now, even though he has been in relatively unspectacular form. Such is the extent to which Nadal and Roger Federer have been hogging all of the available points. Thiem, a champion in Rio de Janeiro and a quarterfinalist in Indian Wells, has advanced in Barcelona with straight-set wins over Kyle Edmund and Dan Evans. Another relative clay-court novice awaits, so Thiem should once again have no significant trouble on his favorite surface.

Pick: Thiem in 2

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62 Comments on Barcelona QF previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Chung, Thiem vs. Sugita

    • Although this match only strengthened my belief that only Thiem can potentially give Rafa trouble in the final… Murray just not convincing to me yet.

      • Matches like this will help Murray. Coming back from a set down and hanging in there when he was on the verge is losing again, can only help at this point. One can say that Andy should not have had to struggle that much, but staying tough and pulling out a win to stay alive in the tournament, is a good thing.

        Andy’s not there yet, but this is progress. Andy and Thiem should be a good one.

        • He could be! Although I will remain skeptical for now. He’s got a chance tomorrow to get a good win over a top player on clay. That would surely help his confidence. Whatever happens for him in Barcelona, I would think that by the time Madrid rolls around he will at least be playing better. He’s done really well at Madrid the last two years, so I look forward to seeing him there. I also look forward to seeing Novak back in action as the defending champ. I thought he actually played pretty well in the Goffin match in MC, just not good enough. So I’m curious to see where he’s at in Madrid. I’m also psyched to see Kyrgios back in action, particularly since the conditions at Madrid seem to fit him pretty well. I just wonder if he will be too rusty and not ready for clay? We shall see! The bottom line for me is that, outside of maybe Madrid, I don’t see anyone at a level yet where they can challenge current Rafa this clay season.

    • Even when Chung is nerous…he’s not too bad. I have yet to check Chung’s current ranking but nice to see him get this good result in an ATP main draw and out of the challenges.

      • I am impressed, because I had not heard of him until now. He came out with the right attitude, but taking on Rafa is a formidable task.

        He’s done well. On serve.

  1. Really happy with Rafa’s backhand. What a tie break! His forehand has been pretty strong too. Yes, he can do more damage with the forehand but it is getting better and better. This set could be lop-sided if he changes the patterns a bit.

    • I actually doesn’t like seeing Rafa engaging too much in long rallies. I noticed that he’s losing the longer rallies but once he went up to the net or moved up to the fore court, he won the point. I don’t understand why Rafa still insists on staying back to rally so often when he can win points playing inside the court. He’s making his life much harder if he insists on grinding it out.

      • I agree with you but I also think the king of Roland garros must be the best in long rallies as well by the time RG starts. The confidence Rafa gets after winning those long rallies is incomparable I think. And, when he goes up against Djokovic, he will be forced to play long rallies a lot of the times because of the Serb’s defence. So, it is vital that he starts winning more long rallies. It also used to create fear in the minds of his opponents so there was always pressure on them.

        I do like it when he keeps the points short though. It helps him in many ways . Right now, I am very satisfied with his game. Even the serve is getting better and better. It was encouraging to read the other day that Toni was not too satisfied with Rafa’s forehand and thought he can do more damage. Team Nadal is really in the right direction.

        • Yep, the FH is leaking more errors. It’s Ike Rafa just can’t have a complete set of tools all functioning well at the same time. When the FH is great, the BH isn’t; when the BH is great, the FH gets more error prone.

          I like Rafa to have his BHDTL functioning well by the FO, in addition to his FH, like FO2013.

        • VR, I don’t agree about playing long rallies against Djoko at RG. One has to realize and come to terms with one’s own shortcomings. Rafa can no longer has an advantage over many of is strong opponents when it comes to winning the long rallies. Whether it’s against Djoko or Murray or Stan for examples, Rafa has to learn to shorten points and beat them with his guile, his tennis acumen and court craft more than grinding them down.

          Fed has been doing that all along on the other surfaces at least, so it’s time Rafa does the same and on any surface, including clay. It will be better for his 30 or 31 year old body now and going forward, should he decide to play for a few more years.

      • This is what I’ve been saying, Lucky. Even though I think Rafa is playing at a higher level than a month ago, it’s hard to count on your legs at his age, especially against a 20 year old with legs like Chung. Plus, look at some of the volleys Nadal hit in this match. I honestly think Nadal is one of the best volleyers on tour, and I’m sure he could win many points this way if he built it into his game more.

    • Chung did well…a lot better than I thought. Rafa just played a perfect tie break.

      Chung had to get through qualifying in Barcelona.
      Amazing run for Chung.

  2. Chung is very talented and athletic. But like a lot of these young up-and-coming players, he doesn’t yet have that really competitive killer instinct that it takes to run with the big boys.

    • Killer instinct amongst the next generation is lacking. Kyrgios has some, Sascha is coming along. I’ve seen it in Pouille — a good finisher, indeed. I’m still happy Goffin got a win over Novak 😉

    • More like Chung doesn’t have the varieties like most youngsters these days. They basically hit hard, serve big and run fast. Once Rafa moves up to the net, Chung would lose the point.

  3. It’s amazing how much improved his backhand counterpunching is as compared to MC (esp the earlier rounds). For me the most important measure is how effective is ‘average groundstroke’. This means a lot more to me than him seeing a few flashy forehands DTL. His backhand average grounstroke is close to the level I would want it to be and forehand, althrough much better now, still needs improvement. The progress is quite good though 🙂

  4. Rafa’s been attempting some big CC forehands with the traditional (across the body) follow through. He missed them but I liked that he went for them, just like in practice! He surely hits them more aggressive when hit that way.

  5. I am now wishing Fed was playing this clay season! haha. Rafa would have had a great chance to stop his losing streak.

    • I was following the score online since I am not at home. I recorded the match and will watch when I get home. I was nervous as I checked on the tb score. But when I saw that Rafa won, I breathed easier. Chung did well to take it to a tb in that first set. But I had a feeling that Rafa would take control in the second set.

      From reading the comments I got a good sense of how Rafa played. Good to know he stepped it up in the to.

      Rafa could benefit from a bit of a challenge. He’s had an easy time of it, but tougher matches bring out the best in Rafa!

      He’s in the semifinals!

      • You don’t Thiem at least would have a slight chance at beating Rafa again, Ricky? What if Rafa’s level just happened to drop for whatever reason? Don’t get me wrong, I would bet on Rafa to win if they play in the final, no doubt. But “how would he not win this title” is a pretty bold question. 🙂

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