Barcelona QF previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Chung, Thiem vs. Sugita

Rafael Nadal had been on a quarterfinal collision course with Alexander Zverev, but the Spaniard will instead go up against Hyeon Chung on Friday in Barcelona. Dominic Thiem and Yuichi Sugita are also aiming for a place in the last four.

(Q) Hyeon Chung vs. (3) Rafael Nadal

Nadal and Chung will be going head-to-head for the first time in their careers when they battle for a spot in the semifinals of the Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell on Friday. It has already been an incredible week for Chung–in fact, it has to be considered his best-ever performance at the ATP level. The 20-year-old South Korean, ranked No. 96 in the world, qualified for the main draw with victories over Ernests Gulbis and Guido Pella before taking out Denis Istomin, Philipp Kohlschreiber, and Alexander Zverev. Chung has not dropped a single set in five matches and only Gulbis has even managed to force a tiebreaker.

It is safe to say, however, that the competition level now ratchets up to a dramatic extent. Nadal is 50-3 lifetime in Barcelona with nine titles and he is 26-5 this season, including 7-0 on clay. The fifth-ranked Spaniard has maintained his fine form from Monte-Carlo–where he captured his 10th title at the tournament last week–with routine wins at the expense of Rogerio Dutra Silva and Kevin Anderson. Chung is playing arguably the best tennis of his career, but it is never easy to face Nadal–especially not for the first time and on clay.

Pick: Nadal in 2 losing 5-7 games

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(4) Dominic Thiem vs. (LL) Yuichi Sugita

Chung is not the most surprising quarterfinalist of the week. That distinction belongs to Sugita, who fell to Steven Diez in the final round of qualifying but got a lucky-loser spot in the main draw when fellow Japanese star Kei Nishikori withdrew because of a wrist injury. The rest is history; Sugita has made the most of his opportunity with defeats of Tommy Robredo, Richard Gasquet (in a third-set tiebreaker), and Pablo Carreno Busta on his way to the last eight. The world No. 91 had not played a main-draw match at the ATP level in 2017 prior to this week and he had never won a main-draw match at ATP-level on clay in his entire career.

Up next for Sugita on Friday is a first-ever meeting with Thiem. The ninth-ranked Austrian would actually qualify for London with room to spare if the season ended now, even though he has been in relatively unspectacular form. Such is the extent to which Nadal and Roger Federer have been hogging all of the available points. Thiem, a champion in Rio de Janeiro and a quarterfinalist in Indian Wells, has advanced in Barcelona with straight-set wins over Kyle Edmund and Dan Evans. Another relative clay-court novice awaits, so Thiem should once again have no significant trouble on his favorite surface.

Pick: Thiem in 2

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37 Comments on Barcelona QF previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Chung, Thiem vs. Sugita

    • I really hope we get a Rafa-Thiem final! I want to see a competitive final, and I think Thiem is the only one who is playing well enough to make it competitive. I just don’t see Murray being able to challenge any top player at the moment, let alone Rafa on clay…

      • we won’t get past Thiem though. It’s been strange with Andy. Finishing the year the way he did in 2016, and then struggling like this has been weird to say the least.The injury has played its part of course.

        • Yes, tough way to start the year for Andy. I hope he can get his mojo back. And ARV has been having his best season hasn’t he?

          • True. It’d want to see Andy playing well very soon.

            ARV is doing a great job. He is no.9 in the race ATM.

          • Yeah, ARV has worked pretty hard getting himself up there – he started looking good on the South America clay. But PCB was better at that point – now ARV is the man.

            Can’t imagine Andy being happy with himself if he loses again to ARV! I’ve never seen or remember ARV playing as well as he has. Thiem vs ARV will be good — or Andy v Thiem. I picked Thiem to the final.

    • Nny,

      Yeah, I noticed that you picked RBA over ARV. I wasn’t sure about RBA and stuck with ARV but I’m surprised he lasted this long too. RBA showed signs yesterday of starting to put it together. RBA has a deadly FLAT forehand and anticipates so well. But ARV is simply still in better shape and has a great lefty spin FH and I think a better serve than RBA. Maybe RBA is timing his peak for targeting RG. (Not that he’ll win, but… make a deep run)

      • rc,

        I actually forgot who I picked! I guess that I didn’t think ARV wound be able to duplicate what he did in MC.

    • There are still lots of talented tennis players from Spain! Not sure about next gen age group tho.

      I’t took ARV a long time to pull it all together and have enough confidence. I remember liking him when he was younger back in 2010 or 11 …but his progress sort of stopped. Not sure what the issue was.

    • No. Not terribly convincing at all from Andy

      Rushed home to watch Chung v Rafa.

      Andy brilliant just there at the very end. Out-foxed him with an off paced mixture of balls.

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