Barcelona QF previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Chung, Thiem vs. Sugita

April 27, 2017 Ricky Match previews 141

Rafael Nadal had been on a quarterfinal collision course with Alexander Zverev, but the Spaniard will instead go up against Hyeon Chung on Friday in Barcelona. Dominic Thiem and Yuichi Sugita are also aiming for a place in the last four.

(Q) Hyeon Chung vs. (3) Rafael Nadal

Nadal and Chung will be going head-to-head for the first time in their careers when they battle for a spot in the semifinals of the Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell on Friday. It has already been an incredible week for Chung–in fact, it has to be considered his best-ever performance at the ATP level. The 20-year-old South Korean, ranked No. 96 in the world, qualified for the main draw with victories over Ernests Gulbis and Guido Pella before taking out Denis Istomin, Philipp Kohlschreiber, and Alexander Zverev. Chung has not dropped a single set in five matches and only Gulbis has even managed to force a tiebreaker.

It is safe to say, however, that the competition level now ratchets up to a dramatic extent. Nadal is 50-3 lifetime in Barcelona with nine titles and he is 26-5 this season, including 7-0 on clay. The fifth-ranked Spaniard has maintained his fine form from Monte-Carlo–where he captured his 10th title at the tournament last week–with routine wins at the expense of Rogerio Dutra Silva and Kevin Anderson. Chung is playing arguably the best tennis of his career, but it is never easy to face Nadal–especially not for the first time and on clay.

Pick: Nadal in 2 losing 5-7 games

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(4) Dominic Thiem vs. (LL) Yuichi Sugita

Chung is not the most surprising quarterfinalist of the week. That distinction belongs to Sugita, who fell to Steven Diez in the final round of qualifying but got a lucky-loser spot in the main draw when fellow Japanese star Kei Nishikori withdrew because of a wrist injury. The rest is history; Sugita has made the most of his opportunity with defeats of Tommy Robredo, Richard Gasquet (in a third-set tiebreaker), and Pablo Carreno Busta on his way to the last eight. The world No. 91 had not played a main-draw match at the ATP level in 2017 prior to this week and he had never won a main-draw match at ATP-level on clay in his entire career.

Up next for Sugita on Friday is a first-ever meeting with Thiem. The ninth-ranked Austrian would actually qualify for London with room to spare if the season ended now, even though he has been in relatively unspectacular form. Such is the extent to which Nadal and Roger Federer have been hogging all of the available points. Thiem, a champion in Rio de Janeiro and a quarterfinalist in Indian Wells, has advanced in Barcelona with straight-set wins over Kyle Edmund and Dan Evans. Another relative clay-court novice awaits, so Thiem should once again have no significant trouble on his favorite surface.

Pick: Thiem in 2

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31 Comments on Barcelona QF previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Chung, Thiem vs. Sugita

  5. Rafa to beat whichever chumps are left in his half of the draw. Then to win the final in straights only dropping 5 games, unless he faces Thiem or Murray, in which case he could maybe, possibly, potentially, drop a set if he decides to take a lil’ walkabout. Rafa for 10th Barcelona.

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  11. I guess ARV got a boost of confidence from his runner up result at MC. He’s giving RBA a battle.

    With Goffin out, Rafa won’t face any challenge to the final. Now it remains to be seen if Murray gets through to the final. I think only Thiem can possibly stand in his way in his part of the draw.

    I think Rafa is going to have an easy time if it with Chung. He’s done well to get this far and beat Zverev in the bargain. I can’t see this being competitive. I am cautious in predicting how many games Rafa will lose in matches, but I would be surprised if Chung does any better than Dutra Silva.

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  14. Honestly, I’ve never heard of either Chung or Sugita and my friends always teasing me how I know all the top 100 players first and last names by heart. I guess not any more ?

    Good for both of them to get this far! Chung should be honored to have a chance to play for the first time the King of Clay and on the court named Rafael Nadal! That’s something to live for!

    Rafa in 2 and logically Thiem in 2…

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    • Both Chung and Sugita are hard hitters playing primarily at or behind the baseline. Sugita reminds me of Nishioka, he can run. Chung too, but Rafa has more than enough tricks to handle Chung; it’s a matter of Rafa taking a few games to familiarize himself with Chung’s game.

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  15. Been out of town for several days and away from internet, which I highly recommend. Unfortunately missed the MC final, but obviously Rafa is playing at quite a high level. I said at the start of MC that I would be surprised to see him win it, so was obviously wrong about that. Well done to those who called it correctly.

    I saw a bit of Chung at the AO where he took the first set from Dimitrov pretty handily. He’s obviously on form here, but hard to see him making much headway against Rafa on clay. In the other match, I’ve never seen or even heard of Sugita, so can’t make an informed call beyond the obvious.

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