In a rematch of the 2018 French Open title tilt, Rafael Nadal and Dominic Thiem will battle for a place in the Barcelona final on Saturday. The other semifinal in the bottom half of the bracket pits Kei Nishikori against Daniil Medvedev.
(1) Rafael Nadal vs. (3) Dominic Thiem
Novak Djokovic may have something to say about it over the next six weeks, but Nadal vs. Thiem could once again be the best “rivalry” of the clay-court swing. They will face each other for the 12th time in their careers and for the first time this season when they square off in the semis of the Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell on Saturday afternoon. Nadal and Thiem collided three times during last year’s dirt season, with the Spaniard prevailing in Monte-Carlo (6-0, 6-2) and at Roland Garros (6-4, 6-3, 6-2) while the Australian pulled off an upset in Madrid (7-5, 6-3). Their most memorable encounter came a few months later at the U.S. Open, where Nadal survived a 0-6, 6-4, 7-5, 6-7(4), 7-6(5) thriller to improve to 8-3 in the head-to-head series.
The world No. 2 failed to capture a 12th title in Monte-Carlo, but he also has a chance to accomplish that feat in Barcelona. Nadal has improved to a ridiculous 61-3 lifetime at this tournament with victories over Leonardo Mayer, David Ferrer, and Jan-Lennard Struff. Thiem, who also underwhelmed last week, is through to the final four following defeats of Diego Schwartzman, Jaume Munar, and Guido Pella. The third seed has a real chance in this one if he plays like he did in the second set against Pella, but Nadal’s record in Barcelona (the 61-3 overall mark plus 36-1 in his last 37 sets) cannot be overlooked.
Pick: Nadal in 3
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(4) Kei Nishikori vs. (7) Daniil Medvedev
Nishikori and Medvedev will be meeting for the fourth time in their careers and for the fourth time in the past 13 months. The head-to-head series stands at 2-1 in favor of Nishikori, who prevailed 7-5, 6-2 last spring in Monte-Carlo and 6-4, 3-6, 6-2 earlier this season in the Brisbane final. Medvedev scored a 6-2, 6-4 victory for the Tokyo title last fall.
Although Nishikori has cooled off of late, his 2019 campaign includes his Brisbane title and a quarterfinal performance at the Australian Open. The world No. 7 from Japan has advanced this week by beating Taylor Fritz, Felix Auger-Aliassime, and Roberto Carballes Baena. Medvedev represents a steep step up in competition, as the 23-year-old Russian registers at 14th in the rankings thanks in part to a 24-7 match record this season. Medvedev has the edge in current form and he also has to be feeling confident based on his recent efforts against Nishikori.
Pick: Medvedev in 3
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Thank you everyone for the greetings.Good to read your comments 🙂
In my opinion, Rafa is not going anywhere and will to win is still very strong. If his body keeps deserting him as frequently as it has in the last 12 months then nobody can predict what will happen as only he knows how that feels mentally.
If you look at the 5-4 30-0 point that Rafa won for 40-0, and note Rafa’s reaction, it is more than enough to tell you how much he still loves this game. It is the sheer love for the game that has kept Fedal on the field for so long at the top of the game.
Till the Mayer match in Barcelona, I was thinking that this year would be like 2015 as Rafa seems to have lost trust in his body and there is a large confidence deficit. However, the last three matches saw his level get better and better. He upped his level in the second set today and if Thiem had flinched even a little, Rafa would have won.
I am confident Rafa’s tennis will be right up there at RG but of course that is assuming his body is healthy.
Hi everyone and thanks for the greetings 🙂
It is good to read your comments!
Sorry if I haven’t replied to anyone’s emails. More than happy to talk and my email is the same : hasan_murad1990@hotmail.com
Just read the comments so far. I think those who reflexively pick Nadal in any clay court match are showing a bit of gamblers’ fallacy. Just because he’s won so much in the past doesn’t mean he can do so in 2019. His past record in Monte Carlo and Barcelona has been every bit as good as his record at RG; indeed, you may say that he has more of an advantage in Barcelona since it is virtually a home court for him. Yet he lost.
In my view, if Rafa and Thiem meet at RG this year, Thiem should be favored. Maybe that view will change over the next few weeks, but I doubt it. My guess is that Thiem will have even more confidence the next time they meet. We’ll see what happens in Madrid and Rome, but I don’t see how anyone could objectively think that Nadal’s chances of winning RG are better today than they were before the start of MC.
And it can be argued right back that those who think Thiem will be favored henceforth are suffering from a recency bias. Throwing terms around to provide an illusion of being logical is an old trick.
Recency bias is not bias in this context. It’s called current form.
Just like experience of previous years amounts to something esp since the game is played between the years at that level
I don’t deny that it amounts to something. But Nadal is nearly 33, and imo his clay level has declined since 2017. Some commentators here say things like: “I just can’t bring myself to pick against the king of clay on a clay court, esp. at RG.” To me that’s disregarding the evidence that Nadal is not the same player he was, and that others (notably, Thiem) are better and perhaps coming into their prime.
And you answered your question yourself! Why despite the loss it is difficult picking against him on a clay court. It is the same reason why it is difficult to pick against roger on a grass court no matter what his form and age is going into wimbledon. And his record is not even as impressive as rafas at rg. I never heard you saying that dominic will be the favorite against roger going forward after the indian wells loss. This cherry picking of “logic” is laughable really😁
No one is assuming Federer will win the USO, which is the relevant slam comparison. In contrast, every Rafa fan on this site seems to think Nadal will win RG, despite his start to the clay court season. There’s your difference.
I would pick Fed over Thiem on grass (although I believe Thiem has beaten him on that surface). I’m not sure about HC; it would depend on their form. If they played tomorrow, I think it would be close.
I understand what you’re saying, Joe. You seem to be taking people’s picks/predictions of Rafa winning RG as them saying that nobody can beat him. That’s just not the case. There’s no question that, as of now, Nadal will be going into RG much more vulnerable than he did the last two years. But I think part of the reason for still picking Rafa is because nobody has even come remotely close to getting a sniff at beating him there recently. I mean, if he was declining last year, then what does it say about Thiem that he was made to look like the 200th ranked player in the world by Nadal in the Final? In his last 14 matches at RG, the field was only able to take one single set off of him. One! If Thiem had at least made it even slightly competitive the last couple years, people might not be so bullish (no pun attended) about picking Nadal again. But he couldn’t even make it competitive, let alone take a set.
But the important part here is that nobody thinks that Nadal CAN’T be beaten at RG. It is a fact that with age comes the inevitability that Nadal will have to lose at RG again eventually. And it could very well be this year! I know that there are still two of the biggest clay events left to play, but there has been good enough evidence to support picking against Nadal at RG if that’s what you believe. But to suggest that there isn’t also sufficient evidence that the old “I still just can’t pick against Nadal at RG” is still a sound argument, I think you’re overlooking some pretty important factors there, Joe. But it’s not black and white. There is good reason to still doubt the field against Nadal, while still acknowledging that a couple of them are absolutely capable of knocking him off. Hell, one of them HAS knocked him off at RG, albeit Djokovic was a proven all-time great and at his peak, while Nadal was in his biggest slump ever.
Now, because we still have Madrid and Rome, any of us who are currently still picking Rafa to win RG reserve the right to change our minds in another month. Who knows? Nadal could snap out of it and win both Madrid and Rome convincingly. Or he could flame out at both of them, and we could conclude that it’s 2015 all over again + age. If the latter does happen, and Thiem wins one or both of them, then I will re-evaluate accordingly. But at this very moment, I just don’t see how you could claim that, while there is evidence he is not currently the same player, there is ALSO evidence that he can still be favored. You’re claiming that I’m downplaying certain factors, which is fine. I’m claiming that you are downplaying certain factors.
Maybe this could be a similar situation:
Would it have been a lazy pick to have picked Fed to win the 2008 Wimbledon Final because you just felt like Wimbledon was still Fed’s kingdom, even though Fed has been struggling that year, both tennis-wise and health-wise, and Rafa had been gaining on him? I don’t think so. I think a lot of people stuck with Fed for that one, even though nearly all signs pointed to Rafa taking it. Even though Rafa did end up winning it, a lot of people still picked Fed because he was still the king of Wimbledon at that point, and it clearly wasn’t a horrible pick because he barely lost!
While Nadal came exponentially closer previously to beating Fed at Wimbledon(2007) than Thiem has previously ever come to beating Nadal at RG, I see this Rafa/Thiem/RG debate as similar to the Fedal 2008 Wimbledon match in a way. While there are many signs pointing to Thiem being ready to overtake Rafa at RG, there are still very legitimate reasons to believe that Thiem is not ready yet. I know it gets tiring hearing it worded as, “I just don’t see anyone knocking off Nadal at RG yet”, but I gave what I think are very legitimate reasons why that is a sound argument. And I think your arguments are totally sound, too- I just still mean more toward Nadal, at least until Madrid and Rome are over.
Very different situation for Fed in 2008. Although Rafa had just drubbed him in Paris and Fed was recovering from mono, Nadal had never beaten him on grass and he was the 5 time defending champ at Wimby. He was also still 26 years old. In contrast, at present the relevant factors are Nadal’s age, recent declining form, and the fact that Thiem has beaten him several times on clay already.
To be clear, I don’t object to anyone picking Nadal on clay (how could I?). It’s the way some (perhaps including you) have done it, which makes it seem an obvious, reflexive pick. I don’t think it is, which is why I picked Thiem.
It does seem to be all or nothing for Nadal mentally even on clay .Why does he keep playing poor tactics ?
I don’t understand why a player with such a record on clay could ever lack confidence , even if injured.
But at RG, he’ll have the advantage of a bigger court ,five sets and days off.
I agree though, its not looking good for him right now to retain his title .
He’s not a confident person to start with. Toni made him feel that he’s not the most talented player out there so made him believed that he had to work extra hard to be successful. I feel that had gone to Rafa’s head and so if he couldn’t practice or train (due to injuries), he would have doubts in his head and would think that he’s not good enough to go out there to compete.
I honestly feel that it’s all in the mind! Rafa’s game is good enough to compete on most days, as he’s already been playing for so long now and his default game is good enough whether he practises or not! He’s trained to think a lot on court, even when serving, and that’s why he’s taking so long before each serve. Sometimes, I feel that he’s overthinking out there, when simply going for his shots based on instincts would be good enough.
Poor Rafa maybe ,But its still hats off to Thiem, take nothing away from his amazing performance
Nadal played well, and he didn’t lack confidence. He said so himself on both counts, post-match. He hit more DFs than he might have, but that’s because Thiem was teeing off on his serve, which (2nd serve) isn’t that great. And that forced him to go for better 2nd serves.
All in all, any problems Rafa was having today were mostly caused by his opponent.
Ha, the same could be said of Struff, when he couldn’t get many first serves in because of Rafa’s returns!
Had Rafa served better, he would turn things around against Thiem, see, it works both ways! Rafa served poorly because of his nerve, and its not only against Thiem, but against everyone else – Foggy, Mayer, Pella…
Thiem is not known to have a great ROS, I bet against Fed for example, he won’t have that kind of luxury.
Why do you think it’s because of Rafa’s nerve? He said otherwise in his presser; do you think you know better than him? (Ramara says Nadal is one of the most honest players out there when it comes to this sort of self-assessment).
Thiem’s ROS today was great, including against some very good Nadal 1st serves in the first set. He played top shelf in all aspects of the game.
Joe, Rafa is always nervous out there, he himself admitted it all along. Against an opponent like Thiem, I could imagine he’s even more nervous. But, the way Thiem played had put lots of pressure on him, and that’s why he DF’d so often. I would say he DF’d due to the pressure, and so he’s not calm (feeling anxious or nervous) when he served. Of course he didn’t lose the match because of his nerve, but because of how his opponent played. I hope I’ve made myself clear.
Isn’t it the same as that Struff match, when Struff had poorer 1st serve % than in his previous match, all because of what Rafa could do with the returns? So, taking your logic of ‘if Struff could serve better, he might….’, if Rafa could serve better, he might hang in there to force a TB or two, even though he might still not win.
Anyway, Rafa’s serve is giving him lots of problems, as he practically had to throw in a bad service game at least, in every match he played, wind or no wind. And because of that, he couldn’t play his more aggressive serve plus FH game and had reverted to a more grinding clay court game that he used to play in the past. And, because his serve is so returnable, that put more pressure on his service games and he’s always being pushed back behind the baseline when Thiem could step in to return his serve with interest; almost all his service games had gone to deuce!
It’s a ‘muracle’ that despite all the deuces, Rafa could still hang in there and only lost his serve once in each set.
While Thiem might be playing his best tennis, Rafa wasn’t, though he didn’t play badly, just being overpowered and outplayed, not unlike his match vs Foggy.
I don’t know whether Thiem could play even better than this going forward, or whether he could sustain this level of play during the FO (or the rest of the clay season). For Rafa, there’s room for improvement, whether he could raise his level going forward (Will it be a repeat of 2014 or 2015?), we have to wait and see.
Now I know why you made the Struff comparison. It’s true that I said that if he had been able to hit more 1st serves he might have won. However, Struff’s serve is a much bigger weapon than Rafa’s, and the former hit (if I recall) a much lower pct. of 1st serves in.
In the Nadal-Thiem match, I’m not sure what Nadal could have done differently. You say step into the court. But Thiem was hitting very hard and deep; he would have hit a lot more balls by Nadal had Rafa been right at the baseline. Could Rafa have changed the whole baseline dynamic by being more aggressive? Maybe; it’s possible. But it sure didn’t look like it was a winning strategy to me, given the way Thiem was hitting. That’s why I think that Rafa employed a reasonable strategy given his opponent’s style and level of play.
I’m not saying Rafa would win if he stepped inside the court. As I’ve mentioned, the problem with Rafa was still his serve; I mean if he could serve and hit his FH the way he did at the AO, I don’t think Thiem could impose his game on Rafa. It’s because Rafa’s FH was less venomous now (the commentators thought so too), that he no longer could hit it with depth and topspin to give Thiem the problem at the BH corner. Like I mentioned during the match, that it’s like Fed vs Rafa in 2017, Thiem was able to step in to take the ball early on his BH side because Rafa’s FH wasn’t good enough.
Rafa hits his FH from way behind the baseline and so his shots landed more in Thiem’s service box than at the baseline. When he was hitting it hard, it went beyond the baseline. Imo, Rafa wasn’t able to hit his FH with power and enough topspin to make it land deeper in the court or on the baseline, that’s something he needs to work on.
Rafa wasn’t hitting his DTL FH shots even when there’s the open court there when Thiem was camping at his BH corner; a change in direction now and then could have given Thiem a bit more problem than the predictability of hitting CC to Thiem’s BH all the time. It’s only when Rafa was about to lose the match serving at 3-5 in the second set that he hit a beautiful FHDTL winner and managed to hold his serve for the last time. To me (and to the Rafa fans), Rafa hitting or not hitting his FHDTL shots is an indication of his confidence level; when he isn’t confident enough, he tends to play the default pattern of hitting his FHCC to his opponent’s BH.
Couldn’t agree more Lucky. His DTL shot is a thing of beauty but not using it is always a sign he is lacking confidence.
Its another excuse to say Rafa isn’t confident, that’s something all sportspeople have to deal with , not just those atr the very top of their game!
Big Al,
Baloney! Rafa lacking confidence is NOT an excuse! I am so sick of this nonsense! Rafa has always needed a lot of match play to get his rhythm and timing going. He thrived on it. Winning matches breeds confidence. But Rafa’s recent knee injury really seems to have set him back mentally. I know that those who are not fans of Rafa love to make up their own garbage about him. But it has nothing to do with the truth. The knee acted up last year at the USO and Rafa took the rest of the year off. Then it acted up at I/W. If Rafa cannot trust has body, it will affect his game.
We don’t need to make excuses for Rafa! He has records that will never be equaled! So please stop telling us what we are doing! It’s condescending and patronizing!
It was Lucky who said he wasn’t a confident person to start with ,
but it never stopped him becoming the clay GOAT ,did it? That’s why I say it’s an excuse to bring it up now,all sportsmen have to deal with it. Federer doesn’t sleep the night before a big match,it’s normal.
How much match practise did Rafa ever need on clay?It’s hardly been a problem before!
I’m not attacking anyone,it’s just that you can be overprotective of Rafa and less objective at times.
Similar comment about lacking match practise at the AO,yet he played some of his best HC matches ever and reached the final! Doesn’t strike me as lack of confidence.
Basically,he’ 33 and has lost the edge physically so that affects his game which affects him mentally as well.
This is meant to be an objective discussion,sorry if it appears otherwise.
He wasn’t a confident person to start with, any Rafa fan would know that. People thought Rafa is god on clay, so he doesn’t need any match practice and can go out there to beat anyone whether Rafa is fit or not! That’s just nonsense! Why do you think he practices and trains so hard then? Though his basic game is already so good and can beat most guys, he’s not mentally wired to think that way; if not he won’t even need to train so hard, esp after his injuries.
If you’ve followed his interviews and pressers, you would realise that he always emphasises on practice and training. If he plays badly, he would immediately take to the practice court and practices and trains hard.
Rafa was training hard before the AO (if not how did he acquire that serve?)but he lacked actual matches, so you’re wrong, he didn’t lack practices and training, he lacked actual match play. Like I said, it’s almost a miracle that he managed to reach the AO final (I did predict at that time that he at best could only reach the QF). He had his serve plus FH tactic at that time to help him.
As Joe had mentioned, he only had a short injury recovery period this time (4 weeks), hence he didn’t have enough time to train hard before the clay season. It’s not difficult to see that he’s playing relatively badly at MC and had improved in Barcelona. Unlike the AO, he now has time for actual match plays, he had already played 8 matches, so he should be getting more and more confident going forward (and better and better imo).
Rafa may not be as good as in 2017 on clay, but that doesn’t mean that he’s not going to win. If it takes the best of Foggy and Thiem to beat a not so good Rafa, then how much more is required of them when facing a Rafa who’s playing at a higher level than now?
It’s no wonder Rafa felt confident after the Thiem match, because he knew he could play better but Thiem had probably played his best match on clay (at least currently, not talking about the future years when Thiem may get better, not only in skills but tactics and court craft).
Ok then,it’s a reason not an excuse.Semantics
To those non Rafa fans, in particular the Fed fans, it’s excuses.
Big Al, you seem to know nothing about Rafa yet you’re always here telling the Rafa fans off, you’re pathetic. Just go and concentrate on your idol Fed, stop talking nonsense about Rafa, even your idol Fed has shown so much respect for Rafa. It’s his condescending fans who are bitter and still couldn’t get over the fact that Rafa has Fed’s numbers for so long esp at the slams.
You Rafa fans are the ones who are obsessed with your idol,judging by how often you are on here talking about him but that’s your privilege how you spend your time.
I do prefer Federer but am realistic when making predictions.I don’t always back him or go into long discussions about why he lost.
Nadal isn’t as confident as he used to be ,due to age related decline,that’s a good reason for it.But to suggest he was always lacking confidence does sound like an excuse.Really?One of the greatest competitors of all time?
Anyway,I hope he does get over this lapse and get back to his best,TBH I don’t care if he wins RG or not but want to see him tested more this year.Who ever wins will deserve it!
Big Al, go visit the Fed fan websites and you’ll see how they drool over him.
This website is full of Rafa fans, so too bad if you choose to post here. Why can’t we post what we think about Rafa, and defends him if he’s being wrongly accused of this or that? Why do we need people to tell us off, when they don’t even read about Rafa, or follow his tennis closely?
Rafa is not a confident person, but that doesn’t mean he can’t gain in confidence as he progresses through the draw, or when he’s in the winning momentum. Nobody says he’s lacking in confidence all the time; it’s when he’s injured, coming back from injury, or was playing badly for a reason, that he’s more lacking in confidence and it would take him a while to regain some confidence.
If you choose to misread or misunderstand what we have to say, then too bad!
PS. You talk as if you represented ALL Fed fans! Some Fed fans were already giving excuses that Fed was old when he lost, even during 2008/2009 when Fed was only 27/28 years old.
Isn’t the rg phillipe chartier court being razed down n modified .what advantage will Rafa have if court is no longer the same..
Lucky,the reason I post here is because it’s a tennis discussion forum, I don’t need to ‘know much about Nadal’ or be his fan to do that.Ive been watching him long enough,so I’ve got my own opinions.
It’s a tennis forum so please leave us the Rafa fans to comment on his tennis, we don’t you to be here criticising us!
Sorry if you can’t cope with any other opinion .
Not when you’re criticising us the Rafa fans!
Where? I disagreed,that’s all
Why would I criticise Nadal fans , and you in particular??
Well, I wasn’t trying to , but now you mention it ,you’re arrogant about your ‘superior’ knowledge, dismissive of other opinions ,eg starting every other post with a dismissive ‘Nah, that’s not right’ .
So, you’re guilty of the same thing , critcising who you think are fanatical fans of Federer.Just because Rafa fans might be in the majority, doesn’t give you the excuse to gang up on other tennis fans.Its bullying, in other words , and I did describe Nadal as a bully previously, because that’s his basic game in a nutshell,physically strong but mentally weak when the physicality doesn’t work. Why doesn’t he stand closer to the baseline ,or hit the FHDTL when everyone now knows he has to do that ?? Its pathetic .We’re talking about a GOAT contender, so sorry, I have to comment on it .
Enjoy the rest of the clay season .
Nadal has always struck me as a classic bully on the tennis court. Just my purely subjective opinion.
In fairness, off the court he seems to be a genuinely nice and humble guy.
Yeah yeah, so I’m arrogant and you’re not! Come on, you call my comment (about how Rafa played vs Foggy) pathetic. You call the Rafa fans here obsessive over Rafa. And who are the non Rafa fans who are obsessive over Rafa, posting so often about Rafa once he lost a match?
I don’t wish to ‘quarrel’ with you here, I thought you had let the matter rested (your post at May 1st, 1.12pm), but your comment of May 2, 10.40pm seemed to me that you always wanted to win an argument and had the last say.
One more thing about Rafa – why he didn’t choose to move closer to the baseline or step inside the court to hit his FH when it’s obvious he’s hitting it short from so far back? Precisely, that’s something we were discussing here among the fans and non fans.
As mentioned, when he’s not confident, he tends to hit his FH short, or mis-hit it; and the more he mis-hit it, the less confident he becomes. He did try to hit it hard at times, but tend to over hit when doing so, until the last few games when he finally found his range but too late.
My guess as to why he’s not moving forward towards the baseline: it’s clay, and he knew once he’s able to hit hard plus impart enough topspin, he hitting from way behind the baseline won’t be an issue. It’s not HC, where he knew he needs to play closer to the baseline, so after returning serves, he would try moving forward when playing on the HCs.
He said after the Thiem match, that he’s confident he could play better, so who are we to doubt him; after all, don’t we all agree or at least recognise that he’s honest with his assessment – of himself and his opponents?.
I’ve joined in many discussions about Rafa ,it’s coincidence that you his fans have most of them when he loses.Im not rubbing that in .
I think I’ve said my main point about Nadal in my last post,though . However nice or honest a guy he is off court,
he closely resembles a bully on it,thanks for agreeing Joe.
That’s why I find it hard to sympathise with some of the ‘reasons’ his fans give about why he lost,esp the mental weakness one.
I hope he does get back to something near his best for RG .
Hopefully that explains it better,I’ve nothing more to add really .
I come to think that Rafa really has nothing to prove on clay! He has records that no one will be able to match probably ever, and he has had achieved it with all the times off and injuries he had to cope with! Why on earth would either Rafa or Novak risk any injury just to win another 250 event? Rafa knows his body may desert him any time and he should be wise enough to treat these tourneys before RG only as warm up events! He needs match play and he needs to build his form, the confidence will not be an issue when he steps on the RG court! If healthy and back to his fitness and form Rafa has only one person to fear which is Novak and nobody else! This Thiem stands no chance against Rafa in RG because Rafa in Paris will not serve dfs, will be in more attacking mode and will be moving way better, trust me!
Vamos Rafa!
Maybe you’re right, Nats. You’re a die-hard fan. But to me, the recent AO final may be a better guide. To my eye, Nadal before the final looked to be playing as well as he had ever played on a HC. I expected either a Nadal win or at the very least a marathon match like he and Novak have played before. As it turns out, it wasn’t even competitive. For whatever reason -and I don’t think it was injury- he wasn’t able to get close to Djokovic, something I don’t think anyone expected.
Now, I’m not saying that if Nadal should make the RG final that he has a chance of getting blown off the court. I don’t think that. But a lot of people seem to think that Thiem (or anyone else) won’t stand a chance against 2019 Nadal’s best at RG. Based on what I’ve seen so far, I just don’t think that’s true.
If Rafa stays healthy he wins RG. If not, not. Rafa’s quite aware that he still has work to do to bring his game up to his usual very high clay court standard. His head relishes the prospect. I just hope his body still does.
Btw Rafa’s take on the AO final loss was that while he’d developed a very good aggressive game, he hadn’t been able to bring his defense up to its usual standard, and he NEEDS his defense vs Djokovic.
You seem to think Rafa is currently healthy. Yet he lost twice recently. Why couldn’t a healthy Nadal lose at RG? In fact, he could. If he doesn’t win Madrid or Rome, it will become more likely that will lose at RG. That’s my point.
Not really. RG has always been the most favorable place for Rafa. He does very well at Madrid and Rome but “only” wins them maybe 50 to 70% if the time. He doesn’t “need” to win them but he will want to play well at them and certainly will try to win. Winning the “clay slam” is a fantastically difficult achievement. Only Rafa has done it and only once (2010) and he skipped Barcelona that year.
I suppose a healthy Rafa could have a really bad day and an opponent have a really great day but 5 sets makes that unlikely. Maybe Djokovic will get his game together and play lights out – he wants that 2nd RG and might be able to take Rafa out if Rafa’s a bit off. Maybe Thiem will manage to play lights out over 5 sets. I really don’t see anyone else stepping up to do it this year.
No reason to think that it’s only Rafa who may be a bit off, when Djoko is playing worse tennis on clay so far. If Djoko could suddenly play light out tennis, why then Rafa couldn’t if he’s fit and healthy? Djoko may want to get his four in a row but Rafa may also want his no.12!
As for Thiem, I do think that he had to work very hard through the draw at the FO, being BO5 and Thiem played plenty of five sets matches and losing some epic ones. I do think it’s unlikely that Thiem is going to play this way in BO5 match after match, unless the draw opens up nicely for him, or he’s on fire and plays like Stan in 2015 FO. We’ll see.
A healthy Rafa but just back from injury. Certainly you’re not expecting him to play lights out tennis once he steps on clay, do you? That’s being unrealistic!
Rafa is happy with his progress, he knows himself better than any of us, and I’m sure he’s working to be ready for the FO. Rafa needs match plays, regardless of winning or not winning titles. I read it in the past, that Rafa usually needs about 15 matches on clay to feel that he’s ready for RG.
Lucky, I think this “just back from injury” line is more than a little misleading. Nadal’s injuries are chronic, particularly his knee. For a long time, he has effectively managed his schedule by sacrificing the non-clay season to be available and maximally healthy for the clay. He does this not only because the clay is easier on his body, but because his chances to win are obviously best there.
As I’ve said previously, Nadal was only out for 2 weeks after the scheduled Federer match in Indian Wells before returning to the practice courts. That is not a serious injury and nothing compared to his absences in 2016 (3+ months) and 2012-13 (6 months). Yet, in both those earlier cases, his subsequent performance was much better, not just on clay, where he nearly swept the clay court season in 2013 and 2017, but also on HC. The difference, I think, is that he was younger then. Age and injury seem to have caught up with him, which is why even though his layoff this time around is much shorter, his results are not nearly as good.
I never heard of a player who needed that much match practise,in addition to his other extensive training.No wonder he gets injured .
It’s not as if his form was poor at MC over the years,usually his first tournament on clay.
The year he was really tested before RG,2009, he overplayed got injured and lost early at RG.
I wonder will we see that again?
Mt Joe, 2012 was seven years ago; 2016 was three years ago. Rafa is now 33, not that young anymore. Why do you think his injuries are happening more frequently and at shorter intervals nowadays? In 2018 itself, he was injured twice, both times at the HC slams; and that’s only seven months apart, and Rafa needed three months off to recover before playing the AO. And, he got injured again after only two months from the AO; you think Rafa’s body will get better and better as he gets older?
He’s suffering from knee tendinitis and he needs rest to let it heal to a reasonable level; he started practicing two weeks after IW but that’s light practice, not intensive practice. Why do you think he did so poorly at MC? Do you think his clay court prowess has gone down so much, when he could reach the final of a HC slam, and SF of a HC masters not long ago?
Rafa said it himself, he needs to find himself; he may be not trusting his body yet after the injury; it’s obvious he’s not pushing his body too much, esp when serving and hitting his FH. His serve wasn’t at the AO level, and he has lost some venom on his FH, and that’s why he couldn’t hit it with both depth and topspin for his usual high bounce and depth on clay. And yet, he could reach the SF at B2B clay events and it took his opponents playing light out tennis to beat him.
No wonder Rafa is positive and happy with his progress, and said that when he’s able to play his best tennis, he could beat Foggy and Thiem (on clay). The question of course is whether he could find his best tennis; if Rafa is fit and healthy, I don’t see why he couldn’t.
Well, you’re just making my point for me. Because Nadal is older, he can’t recover as quickly and quite possibly can’t find the level he was able to attain when he was younger. That’s not injury: that’s age-related decline.
We both know that if he had suffered the knee problem at, say the US open, he would have taken much more time off. He came back right away (just skipping Miami) because this is the clay season, his bread and butter. Again, in the past when he was younger, he was able to overcome much longer lay-offs (with presumably much more rust) and still dominate the clay court season. He doesn’t seem to be able to do that anymore, and the reason is probably age-related decline. That’s why I say that even on clay, his healthy best won’t necessarily beat everyone anymore.
Joe, there’s no point arguing until we turn blue; we are not Rafa, and it’s not like who wins the argument here determines how he will perform!
Just wait and see how the rest of the clay season unfolds. It’s just like I won’t trust that Thiem could play this way week after week on clay, because he hasn’t proven he can do that yet. It’s no point arguing, you’re not going to convince me or the other Rafa fans, neither will we convince you otherwise.
Joe, you forget that Rafa didn’t play for months before the AO, to get to the final the way he did was indeed unbelievable, and here you asked why he played so poorly in the final? I mean we are talking about Djoko his opponent, who had the winning momentum with him, winning at Wimbledon, USO before coming to the AO! Djoko’s serve was also unbelievable in that final.
Now, he’s coming back from injury so why would he start to beat everyone on clay so soon? Give him time, he knows what he needs to improve on in the coming weeks. He’s already playing better tennis than when he’s at MC.
PS. He also said that he didn’t serve well yesterday, esp the second serve (hence his five DFs) and that put pressure on his first serve, he netted so many first serves.