In a rematch of the 2018 French Open title tilt, Rafael Nadal and Dominic Thiem will battle for a place in the Barcelona final on Saturday. The other semifinal in the bottom half of the bracket pits Kei Nishikori against Daniil Medvedev.
(1) Rafael Nadal vs. (3) Dominic Thiem
Novak Djokovic may have something to say about it over the next six weeks, but Nadal vs. Thiem could once again be the best “rivalry” of the clay-court swing. They will face each other for the 12th time in their careers and for the first time this season when they square off in the semis of the Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell on Saturday afternoon. Nadal and Thiem collided three times during last year’s dirt season, with the Spaniard prevailing in Monte-Carlo (6-0, 6-2) and at Roland Garros (6-4, 6-3, 6-2) while the Australian pulled off an upset in Madrid (7-5, 6-3). Their most memorable encounter came a few months later at the U.S. Open, where Nadal survived a 0-6, 6-4, 7-5, 6-7(4), 7-6(5) thriller to improve to 8-3 in the head-to-head series.
The world No. 2 failed to capture a 12th title in Monte-Carlo, but he also has a chance to accomplish that feat in Barcelona. Nadal has improved to a ridiculous 61-3 lifetime at this tournament with victories over Leonardo Mayer, David Ferrer, and Jan-Lennard Struff. Thiem, who also underwhelmed last week, is through to the final four following defeats of Diego Schwartzman, Jaume Munar, and Guido Pella. The third seed has a real chance in this one if he plays like he did in the second set against Pella, but Nadal’s record in Barcelona (the 61-3 overall mark plus 36-1 in his last 37 sets) cannot be overlooked.
Pick: Nadal in 3
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(4) Kei Nishikori vs. (7) Daniil Medvedev
Nishikori and Medvedev will be meeting for the fourth time in their careers and for the fourth time in the past 13 months. The head-to-head series stands at 2-1 in favor of Nishikori, who prevailed 7-5, 6-2 last spring in Monte-Carlo and 6-4, 3-6, 6-2 earlier this season in the Brisbane final. Medvedev scored a 6-2, 6-4 victory for the Tokyo title last fall.
Although Nishikori has cooled off of late, his 2019 campaign includes his Brisbane title and a quarterfinal performance at the Australian Open. The world No. 7 from Japan has advanced this week by beating Taylor Fritz, Felix Auger-Aliassime, and Roberto Carballes Baena. Medvedev represents a steep step up in competition, as the 23-year-old Russian registers at 14th in the rankings thanks in part to a 24-7 match record this season. Medvedev has the edge in current form and he also has to be feeling confident based on his recent efforts against Nishikori.
Pick: Medvedev in 3
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WWW?
I honestly can’t bring myself to pick against Rafa Nadal in a match played on “Pista Rafa Nadal”… I’m not being naive- I know that Thiem has a very good shot at winning. However, I predicted on here before clay started that Rafa would only lose 1 match on clay, just like last year. He’s already lost that 1 match, so I gotta roll with Rafa! 🤷♂️ Also, I just feel like Barcelona is truly Rafa’s tournament- even more so than Monte Carlo. I just have the feeling that Rafa will come out and make a statement win. The last two clay seasons, Rafa has easily dispatched of Thiem in their first meeting on this surface. If Thiem is going to beat Rafa this year, I think it will more likely be in Madrid or Rome. I will admit that this is the weakest Rafa has looked going into a match against Thiem on clay since they played at Monte Carlo 2016. Every time since then, Rafa has been the supreme ruler of clay going into their matches. Tomorrow is a little different for Thiem. If he is smart, he will use it to his advantage tomorrow and come out playing with pirposenand poise. Afterall, though, I still gotta roll with the King- in straight sets.
If Rafa doesn’t stay at the baseline but tries to lure Thiem to the net, he’ll have better chances of beating Thiem. It’s not a winning strategy staying at the baseline to rally with Thiem as we could see howThiem weathered the storm against Pella’s hard hitting from the baseline.
Thiem is also very fit so he could rally the whole day without getting tired. Rafa has to use all his court craft, his counterpunching abilities to beat Thiem.
I think this is Thiem’s time. He has really raised his level in the last few matches, and he has the shots to control the baseline rallies. His FH has been devastating and his kick serve to the ad court has been very effective.
Rafa has played much better the last two matches, but his forehand has not been the dominating shot it was on clay for the last two years. Basically, right now he doesn’t have the weapons that Thiem does. Nadal has to serve like he did against Struff and be more aggressive with his groundies. But it will be very hard if Thiem is on his game, since he may hit the heaviest shots on the tour. Thiem in 3.
Thiem and Medvedev
Looking forward to these 2 matches.
Nishikori has played a lot better but sense Medvedev’s superior form will prevail. You just can’t click your fingers and beat everyone at this level.
However, Nishikori class and historically good form at Barcelona should make this a tight contest.
Medevedev in 3
Similarly, Theim has improved significantly but I think it will be one tournament too early to take down the king of clay even though Nadal’s form heading into Barcelona wasnt great either.
Nadal in 3.
I wana watch a thiem , nishikori final!!! lets go!
Medvedev was a beast serving for that set.
Medvedev has a high tennis IQ
20 years ago,another Medvedev reached the RG final ,could it happen again?
Lol
not out of the question
But maybe this Medvedev wouldn’t lose the RG final form 2 sets to love and a break up? Although, similar to how 1999 Medvedev was facing one of the greatest players of all-time in that final, it wouldn’t be a shock for current Medvedev to lose the RG final from 2-0 up if he were facing Rafa or Novak! However, I could be totally wrong about this, but I really believe that the next Roland Garros champion not named Nadal or Djokovic will be Dominic Thiem. Medvedev could prove me wrong eventually, but there’s just no denying that Thiem is the best clay courter we’ve seen in some time, outside of Rafa/Novak/Stan.
Yes, Thiem is .What a performance this week.
Just thinking it would be a coincidence if we had another Medvedev in the RG final exactly 20 years later .
But losing from such a winning position in major finals does happen to great champions ,as well as one-off finalists.
Sorry I didnt see “another’. Thought you were joking.
Clutch tennis
Rafa’s problem: court position, and his serve. He’s hitting his balls so short because he’s staying so far away from the baseline! Thiem could just step inside the court so often to take advantage of that.
Every service game of Rafa is a torture for him and his fans! Come on Rafa, why are you going FHCC all the time when you’re standing so far back allowing Thiem to step in to hit all those angles with his CCBH? It’s like Rafa vs Fed 2017 all over again; just go DTL with the FH for once please!
Why do you think he doesnt go down the line more with his forehand, Lucky? I’ve wondered the same thing myself for a while now. When he is using that forehand down the line, he is so much tougher to handle.
You saw the last point in his service game? When his back was against the wall then he finally hit one and it’s a winner! See how poor Rafa’s strangely is today?
The way Thiem is hitting that BH, and the way Rafa stands way behind the baseline, hitting short CCFH, you know it won’t work for Rafa.
*strategy.
Hitting angled shots is one essential ingredient of the recipe to beat Nadal on clay. It counters Rafa’s tactic of standing so far back, but you need a baseline game like Thiem’s even to try it, and even then, did you see how many lines he hit today? He played at an extremely high level.
If Rafa steps forward, he gets out hit by Thiem’s more powerful shots. It’s fine to advise him to hit down the line, but trying to hit winners down the line from anywhere is not easy. From 2 meters back of the baseline, it’s a very high-risk shot, not one that will pay off in the long run.
Nobody says Rafa has to hit DTL shots from so far back! I’m saying he should step inside the court more often, and then hit some DTL shots. It’s obvious he’s hitting very short because he’s standing so far back!
It not like he hadn’t the time or opportunities to move inside the court, but he chose to stay back to hit his shorter shots, sticking to a strategy that clearly didn’t work today.
He’s no longer young and so he couldn’t hit with depth standing so far back especially during long rallies. Against Struff, points were short so he need not hit consecutive penetrating shots all the time during the short rallies. Against Thiem, he’s simply being overpowered.
Heavy sweating when pressure is on and just 17 degrees. So many short balls.
Similar to Monte Carlo.
Anxiety is back.
Sadly you’re right Hawks. As I was saying yesterday, I am convinced Rafa will quit tennis in the near future but nobody else agrees with me,
Hi ed! Missing all of our chats with you, VR, rc, RITB and so many more.
Only physical or mental demons can stop Rafa but he has been affected by both so far this year.
Cheers!
Same here! I usually keep a low profile at this time of the year because I spend much of the winter with my sister in Spain – Normandy in the winter lacks charm! Sis comes here in the summer to escape the influx of summer tourists and the intense heatwave. A good arrangement n’est pas?
Hello ED. How’s the North of Spain for a balanced living climate wise? I think it may be good, because winters are not as cold as other parts of Europe and summers not as hot as Madrid, Sevilla, Malaga etc. Thinking to visit San Sebastian and Bilbao and choose a place to buy a house maybe at some point…
Very nice sounding arrangement indeed ed!
Never been to Madrid but I love Barcelona and the coast the few times I’ve been fortunate to visit.
Cheers Hawkie! nice to see you posting 😀
Tsame rc! 🙂
Hope you are well, darling 🙂
Get in my Jalep bracket – there’s just a few of us not – I need you 😀 Mira Andy is gone.
What happened to MA?
All well with me. Hope the tsame for you. Too busy with IRL stuffs to post much these days.
I’ll look at your pool for Rome and RG if I can find some time. 🙂
#ImpeachRussianAgentOrange
Simply too good from Dominic Thiem today. Rafa played well overall, he served very well, and in fact the match was very high quality. But he got outgunned from the baseline. Nadal was basically playing a younger, stronger, right handed version of himself. Well done, Dominic!
Hello, Rafa didn’t serve well! Five DFs and only one ace; compared to Thiem’s five aces and one DF. His second serve is also horrible and he only managed to win 40+% of those.
In fact Rafa’s serve is his main problem, followed by his poor court position. He’s hitting all the short balls allowing Thiem to step in to hit winners all over the place.
Thiem serves big and hits hard and time and again painting the lines. Thiem played very well, not missing much, just like Foggy in MC.
So we will have a new champion after all these years. Congrats to Thiem for this win, but Medvedev may be tougher to beat than Rafa, because he has a big solid serve, and he’s a hard hitter too.
I’m afraid Thiem has already played his best match here, and may have a let down in the final, like Madrid 2018 when he beat Rafa in the QF and then lost it in the final to Sasha, or Rome 2017 when he beat Rafa and lost meekly to Djoko. I really don’t think he can replicate this performance again on the next day.
I disagree. It was a hard match, but he won in straights. And he has been playing great tennis this whole tournament. Medvedev is a solid player, but he doesn’t have the best court coverage at his height, and I think Thiem will take advantage. Maybe he will have a let down, but I think he’s reached the point (4 wins on clay vs. Rafa) that he knows he has a good chance to beat him and won’t let it overwhelm him. He knows his goal is to win the tournament. I say Thiem in 2 in the final.
Deserved win for Thiem! He played excellent match!
Rafa lost to one who outplayed him in every corner!
Well, Rafa is progressing slowly but he is progressing! His game was better than MC, although those DFs were quite depressing, but overall considering how strong Thiem was, Rafa was not that bad! His FH is not there yet which is his main issue, but he will get there!
I repeat, coming back from multiple injuries and aging is not simple and each time it requires more efforts from Rafa! I hope he will be ready for RG! The rest does not matter! Call me crazy, but I tend to find something positive in this loss: Rafa will have one grueling final less! With this pace Rafa should be competitive enough to win the title in Rome!
Vamos Champ! Just keep building up your game and the rest will follow!
I like your positivity, Nats.
I think if it’s so bad, at least I hope that it’s a repeat of 2014, and not 2015! In 2014, he lost in consecutive tournaments – MC and Barcelona – and then barely won Madrid and lost the Rome final to Djoko, but he won the FO.
He needs to find that aggressive game of 2017; I don’t remember Rafa playing from so far back behind the baseline throughout his matches in 2017. He would step inside the court, moved to the net whenever possible, unlike this present Rafa. I think Rafa has to play like 2017, now that he’s two years older! Don’t go back to old way of playing, ie covering so much court playing from so far back!
Lack of confidence is the only issue. He was gradually bridging that the confidence deficit in this match and ALMOST did it in that last service game. His level was better in the second set and apart from some unusual mistakes, he was good. Dominic is a monster on clay. His game is perfect for this surface and it is a matter of time that he wins RG.
I still think Rafa will be too much for him at RG based on what I saw today. As long as Rafa stays healthy, he can build soem confidence in Rome hopefully and peak in RG.
I prefer these straight set losses rather than those gruelling 3-set marathon losses for the sake of Rafa’s body. However, it is also true that these losses dent his confidence. I do feel, however, that today’s win will give him real hope that his tennis is right up there and he needs to have more faith.
This wasn’t a bad loss in my opinion seeing how the second set unfolded .
I agree with you, VR, that I would still pick Rafa if they met at RG, without hesitation. I still just don’t have belief in Thiem that he can handle the pressure well enough in the absolute biggest moments. He obviously made a huge step in beating Fed in a close final at IW, but that isn’t even close to the pressure he feels at RG. And every time he scores one of these great wins over Rafa on clay, the more pressure it will put on him to do it at RG. I was impressed by how composed Thiem stayed in that final service game. It’s actually been a pattern when Thiem faces Rafa- he very often fails to serve out sets/matches. It shows that he clearly gets a bit rattled when he knows he is just 4 points away from beating the unstoppable clay force. Unlike the other times, though, Thiem did well to gather himself and fight to serve it out. Previously he would have meekly been broken back. However, doing that at RG is WHOOOOLOOLE other animal. By the time RG comes around, if he faces Rafa, the pressure will be higher than it has ever been for him. Rafa, on the other hand, knows he comparatively has nothing to lose because he’s won it 11 freakin’ times! Obviously there is no longer any question that Thiem is absolutely good enough to topple Rafa at RG, in terms of tennis. But the mental factor is just so massive at the majors, and Thiem will always know in the back of his mind that ever time he has faced Rafa at RG, Rafa always made him look like a Challenger-level player. And I just can’t assume that Thiem will overcome that massive mental elephant in his head until I actually see him do it.
In 2017, we saw Thiem absolutely destroy Novak in the QF, and many of us thought that this would help Thiem have belief that he could bring it on the next round against Rafa. But while I am certain that Rafa would have beaten Thiem that day no matter how well Thiem played, there is no denying that Thiem absolutely wet the bed if we compare it to the supreme confidence he displayed the round before against the defending champ. And that is because simply stepping onto Stade Roland Garros with Rafa put the absolute “ fear of god” in him. Well, until further notice, that god is still Rafa Nadal, and he will still put that fear into Thiem, which I don’t believe his is ready to overcome.
There’s also still the fact that Thiem is just a very inconsistent player. In fact, I wouldn’t be at all shocked if he meekly lost to Medvedev in the Final tomorrow! Imo, Thiem should have won the title at Madrid last year. I know that Zverev had already proven he was big-time in Masters events, but there’s just no denying that Thiem is a superior clay court player to Zverev. It would have been a massive stamp of (temporary) authority for him to win a clay Masters having beaten Rafa en route. But no- he just didn’t really show up for the final. And that is still a concern for Thiem. Again, he has taken a huge step in capturing that elusive first Masters title. But he and all of us know who Thiem is, and that is a potentially all-time great clay courter. In my opinion, particularly since winning IW, there is no excuse for him to not win a clay Masters this year, especially with question marks surrounding Rafa and Novak. It’s time for Thiem to confirm what we know he is.
Yeah, I think Medvedev may beat Thiem in the final. Thiem hits hard and takes advantage of Rafa’s deep position behind the baseline. In the past, Rafa had no issue playing from so far back because 1) he’s powerful enough to hit with depth even from so far back; 2) he’s so quick around the court that he had no issue when defending or when running to get to drop shots.
Medvedev could hit with more depth and could change direction and pace readily, so it’s not the CC lefty FH to Thiem’s SHBH all the time strategy that Thiem was prepared to play when he faced Rafa.
Kevin, Thiem won a masters title a couple of months ago in Indian Wells. Beat a guy named Roger. Not bad being 2-0 against Fedal in your last two matches.
Joe, definitely not bad at all! Like I said, IW was a big step forward for him. That’s not Roland Garros, though. While Thiem showed improvement in showing poise in a big moment with his win over Fed in the IW final, that completely pales in comparison to the pressure he feels facing Nadal in the SF or Final of Roland Garros. For Thiem, winning Roland Garros is what he has wanted most his whole career. Clay is his bread and butter, but unfortunately for him the most challenging task in tennis history has been beating Nadal at RG. Again, he has shown he is a great enough tennis player to beat Rafa at RG, so I’m not saying that he isn’t capable of doing it. But beating those top guys at the majors is about much more than just tennis, especially for Thiem at RG. This is in part due to it being best-of-five, but mostly because it takes a level of mental toughness and poise that is in another stratosphere than beating Nadal and Federer at any non-Major tournament.
I should also mention that I thought Thiem also showed a big step-up in mental toughness in his epic match with Rafa at the US Open last year. But I can all but guarantee you that Dominic didn’t feel nearly the pressure facing Rafa at the US Open than he does at RG. Not to discount how mentally challenging it is to face Rafa at the other 3 majors, but facing him at RG is just a whole other other animal. It would be like facing prime Michael Jordan in the NBA Finals, except for you have to face him all by yourself with no help! And given that Thiem has now defeated Rafa on clay in each of the last four seasons, I really just feel like the pressure he will feel to pull it off at RG is something we can’t even fathom. And I guess I just don’t trust that Thiem is mentally tough enough yet to really, TRULY believe his can knock off Rafa at RG. He can say he believes til he’s blue in the face, but I believe that that all goes out the window facing him at RG. Maybe he’ll get lucky and somehow get through the draw without even having to play Rafa? Doubtful, but possible.
Honestly, if Thiem had at least had even just ONE single competitive set with Rafa in the previous 3 times they’ve played there, I might feel differently. But every time, especially the last two years, he was so utterly destroyed by Rafa, it was almost like he walked onto Stade RG defeated. The only way to explain him losing so meekly after having recently shown he can at least win sets off him is that facing Rafa at RG is practically a different sport than facing him at, say, Rome or Madrid. It’s not like he suddenly has to play with his legs chained together and win 10 straight sets. He only needs to win 1 more set than he does when he faces him at the smaller tournaments. But Thiem walked on the court at RG as if he DID have to play with his legs tied together! In fairness to Thiem, you might as well be playing with your legs bound together when you play Nadal at RG haha.
Kevin, you forget that Rafa playing at RG is different from Rafa playing at the warm up events. With the exceptions of 2015,
and 2009, Rafa always brought his best game to the FO.
I don’t know whether Rafa will bring his best to the FO this time, but I do think he’s not feeling worse than in 2015, so he’ll try to bring his best there.
Hello VR, how are you? Nice having you back here commenting.
Imo, once Rafa sees a familiar opponent who has/had beaten him a few times on clay, he tends to get more nervous and makes unusual errors.
I do agree that Rafa lacks confidence, and that’s why he’s sticking to a game plan that couldn’t work, instead of stepping up and changing his tactics. It’s frustrating to see him going FHCC to Thiem’s BH all the time, when clearly 1) he’s hitting his FH short, and 2) Thiem’s BH was solid today and he’s stepping inside the court to take on Rafa’s short balls; it’s like watching Fed vs Rafa of 2017.
Rafa’s serve was also vulnerable; even though he’s still getting in 64% of his first serve, they’re not as lethal as Thiem’s, or his own serves of AO2019; hence Thiem could return them quite readily and Rafa was made to work hard to win the points; his service games had practically gone to deuce all the time, that’s how vulnerable his serve was.
After his knee injury, it seems that his serve plus FH strategy at his AO has gone missing; what’s left is a vulnerable serve and a weaker FH which couldn’t sustain the pace and power (that he used to have all along).
I’m not expecting much from this clay season, after seeing how erratic his level of play is. He going back to grinding from so far back instead of playing a more aggressive shorter point tennis doesn’t bode well for him. The more grinding, the more harm done to the body, how’s he going to last playing like that in his 30s?
To me, the most frustrating thing I see this start of the clay season is how poorly Rafa serves. In MC that might be due to the windy conditions but it’s not that windy here at Barcelona yet Rafa threw in so many DFs and lost his serves in every match due to serving poorly, throwing in DFs during BPs!
Rafa has said though he lost his confidence is back, he played better this week than last and that he will build momentum..
My worry is will Rafa lose no 2 ranking before rg ?if he does it’s guaranteed he n Novak will be in same half to keep them away from fed ..
That’s not likely with Sascha playing so badly, Roger playing only Madrid before RG and no one else close enough to take over #2.
Don’t have to worry about Djoko; Djoko may not get that far to meet Rafa, seeing the way Djoko played since the AO. Djoko has his own problems too (and I’m not sure Djoko could beat this Thiem either).
To me, as long as Rafa plays more aggressive tennis like in 2017 clay season, he’ll beat most guys. I’m not sure Thiem is able to sustain this level of play over BO5; Rafa was playing better in the second set, and if they have to play a third set, chances are Rafa may win the third and then who knows how things turn out in the fourth set (or even the fifth). My guess is Thiem won’t be able to hit the lines without missing over three, four or five sets, so Rafa will slowly gain some ground and adapt, or change his tactics during the match.
In BO3 matches, it’s more difficult to turn things around. Even in 2013 when Rafa was playing well at MC that year, he ran into an on fire Djoko in the final, who was aggressive from start to finish, giving Rafa no time to turn things around; but at the FO, Rafa managed to turn things around to win in five sets.
As long as Rafa’s competitive spirit is there, he’ll try his best to win the matches (like in 2014); it’s when he doesn’t have the drive and the belief, then he may start losing everywhere (like in 2015).
And, we can’t expect Rafa to play without losing on clay, now that he’s in his 30s. In 2017, one of his best years on clay, he still lost a match, and to Thiem, what more he’s not playing that well now.
The younger Rafa during his heydays could beat almost everyone on clay, and managed to have a clean record in 2006 and 2010, without losing a match on clay. In other years, he had lost at least a match on clay each season, even in his best years of 2008, 2017 and 2018.
As long as Rafa still has the desire to win, he’ll continue to work hard to get better, both physically and mentally. I’m not saying he’ll sure to win at the FO, but, he’ll improve tournament after tournament, I believe.
I cane on here to see what other Rafa fans are saying after this loss. I confess to feeling very negative after watching it, I don’t know what on earth happened to Rafa’s serve. Just awful. He was under pressure in so many of his service games.
I don’t know where his DTL forehand is either. It’s obvious that his latest knee injury has taken a toll mentally, I stayed away from commenting her after reading that utter nonsense about Rafa bringing injured! From a Fed fan no less.
I was grateful to see VR here with his analysis. It is definitely lack of confidence. I agree about that. When Rafa had three break points in that last service game I thought he might actually come back to at least take the second set. He looked more like himself. But when he did not get it done I was really upset. I am closer to where Ed is at right now. Until this match, I thought Rafa would not retire soon at all. But after this match I started thinking that maybe Ed is right.
Now I am more on middle ground after reading everyone’s comments. I am concerned about Rafa losing points in each tournament. I also think that winning a title solves the confidence issue. Without winning any titles, his does Rafa get into a good rhythm with confidence? Then I read lucky’s post recalling 2014. I had actually forgotten that Rafa lost both MC and Barcelona. Rafa only won Madrid. But he still won RG. That does provide perspective. But he was five years younger. Age and injury are taking their toll.
I really appreciate the comments here. It helps to hear other Rafa fans. I don’t know what to expect for the rest of the clay season. I still think Rafa needs to win a title before RG. I am still in the middle between the competing arguments with Ed on the side of imminent retirement and others like VR thinking there is real progress and reason to feel positive about Rafa’s prospects in this clay season.
We will just have to watch and see what happens.
Rafa was quite pleased with today’s match, very happy with the progress he’s made since playing so badly at Monte Carlo, optimistic, eager to get back to work and full of praise for Thiem.
Yeah it’s an improvement over that Foggy match at MC. I mean the way Thiem played, Rafa only lost two service games despite going to deuces in almost all his own service games, at least he should be happy with the way he competed.
He needs to work on and improve his serve and FH, for only when they’re working well then he will have chances of moving inside the court to impose his game. He staying at the baseline to rally with his younger and stronger opponents won’t be a winning formula as he’s not getting any younger.