Expert picks are back for the Australian Open semifinals on Tuesday, when Rafael Nadal battles Matteo Berrettini and Daniil Medvedev goes up against Stefanos Tsitsipas. A three-team panel previews the action and makes its predictions.
(7) Matteo Berrettini vs. (6) Rafael Nadal
Ricky: The simple question is which Nadal is going to be on display. Will it be the one who was dealing with physical problems during his five-set struggle against Denis Shapovalov on Tuesday? Or is it going to be the one who is 8-0 this season and had been pretty much dominating all of his opponents prior to the quarterfinals? If it’s the latter, I can’t see Berrettini winning this matchup–not on anything other than grass or a lightning fast indoor hard court. There will be too many long rallies in which his vulnerable backhand gets exposed by the Spaniard’s heavy topspin forehand. To be clear, I wouldn’t bet with confidence on either side because of Nadal’s somewhat questionable status. But all things being equal the 20-time major champion should win this one. Nadal in 4: 6-3, 5-7, 6-4, 6-3.
Cheryl: The outcome of this match will depend heavily on whether Nadal has recovered from his five-set victory over Shapovalov. The Spaniard reported suffering heat stroke during the match and described himself as “physically destroyed” in his post-match presser. If the two days’ rest is sufficient, Nadal has to be considered the favorite in this match for several reasons. First, despite earning a spot in his first Australian Open semifinal Berrettini has been a bit vulnerable this fortnight. Only one of his matches was a routine straight-set win. Next, the slower surface (blue GreenSet) neutralizes some of the free points he usually gets on his first serve. Lastly, except for the issue with heat Nadal has been in impressive form. He has some extra pop on his serve and he has taken a more aggressive position on the baseline than usual. Nadal in 4: 6-4, 7-5, 3-6, 6-2.
Pete (Tennis Acumen): Despite five appearances in the final, the AO is Nadal’s “least” successful major. Currently he has a prime opportunity to accomplish the double-career Grand Slam with a win this year in Melbourne. After surviving a tougher than expected quarterfinal against Shapovalov, Nadal will not want to put himself in such dangerous scenarios in this match against even better competition. Similarly, Berrettini also blew a two sets to love lead in his quarter against a spirited and loose Gael Monfils before recovering in the fifth. The Italian now must face a man who has won 20 majors rather than someone with two major semifinal appearances to his name. At this stage of a slam, Nadal carries the banner for the Big 3 and will likely display the brand of tennis that the Big 3 absolutely deliver time and time again on the grandest of stages. Nadal gets to the doorstep of 21 as experience–especially at key junctures–wins this match. Nadal in 4: 6-3, 6-7(6), 7-5, 6-4.
(4) Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. (2) Daniil Medvedev
Ricky: My popcorn is popped for this one. They don’t necessarily hate each other at this point, but they definitely don’t like each other. Last year’s Grand Slam matchups were never going to be good. Tsitsipas was sapped of energy after beating Nadal in five sets in the Aussie Open quarterfinals, after which he got smoked by the Russian in the semis. Medvedev is probably never going to compete with the Greek on clay, and he didn’t in the French Open quarters. This one features a more level playing field. It is true Medvedev is coming off a four-hour and 42-minute thriller against Felix Auger-Aliassime, but the world No. 2 is one of the fittest guys in the business and he has never had any stamina-related issues. He should be fine. Tsitsipas played his best match in ages against Jannik Sinner, but asking for two in a row when he had previously been in a significant slump may be too much–especially against a backboard of an opponent who is going to make him hit tons and tons of tennis balls. Medvedev in 4: 4-6, 6-3, 7-6(6), 6-2.
Cheryl: Of the two semifinals, this is perhaps the more intriguing. Medvedev and Tsitsipas are not…friends. The two men had a highly publicized on-court argument at the Miami Masters in 2018, in which Medvedev accused Tsitsipas of calling him “a bullshit Russian” following a controversy over a strategically timed bathroom break by Tsitsipas. Since then their meetings have ranged from displays of simmering dislike and frosty indifference. The matchup heavily favors Medvedev, who holds a 6-2 record over Tsitsipas, but the Greek got a big win at the French Open last year. Honestly (and surprisingly), it’s Tsitsipas who has been the better player during week two. He dispatched Sinner in easy straight sets in the quarters, while Medvedev had to claw his way back from a two sets to love deficit against Auger-Aliassime. I still like the Russian in Melbourne, but this is not likely to be a straight set repeat of Medvedev’s SF win a year ago. Tsitsipas is going to make him work for it. Medvedev in 5: 5-7, 7-6, 6-3, 4-6, 7-5.
Pete: This will be the third time Medvedev and Tsitsipas will meet in the last five majors. The last four overall meetings have been split, with the victor winning in straight sets each time. Medvedev once again exhibited how difficult it is to oust him at a major in his resilient win over Auger-Aliassime in the quarters. In each of the five previous rounds he has faced a completely different opponent. Now he is standing two wins from consecutive major titles. Credit Tsitsipas for showing heart and determination in his round of 16 comeback win against Fritz. Despite being outplayed, he found a way to advance. After being able to exhale, he then mowed down Sinner in routine fashion in the quarters with a clean 4-for-4 in break points won. Although this match features world No. 2 and world No. 4, the rank order scale does not do justice to the vast gap in current form between these two. Medvedev, following a long exhale of his own after going the distance and saving a match point, should win this one in an easier manner. Medvedev in 4: 6-3, 6-7(4), 6-3, 7-5.
Vamos Rafa, for the final! Just woke up, watched the last couple of games and the interview. Rafa looked GREAT after the match! Unbelievable!
Australian Open. The (Not So) Happy Slam for Rafans. I read a couple of days ago that it was Roger who first called it “Happy Slam”. It certainly did make him happy back in the day. I will try to be cautiously optimistic about Rafa’s chances in the final. His joy in tennis has peaked beautifully and at this stage of his career that just may be the best weapon he has.
Just saw the highlights. Rafa was excellent first 2 sets…but rafas level clearly dropped in third. His intensity dropped ..i don’t know if it’s age related ..even in fourth he focussed on his serve n just attempted to get into berretinis serve first 2 points n if he won there went to break him else did not try .he was clearly managing energy which maybe wise thing to do..maybe moyas input …no fighting for every point. How will he then endure a Medvedev tsitsipas who will surely make it very physical n can Rafa survive them..or was Rafa trying to save all energy for the final
Yes, although not always the best measure of the situation, but the UE’s tell a good story too. His total 7 unforced errors in set 3 equal the combined set 1 and 2 UE’s total.
He’ll give it his 120% in the final.
Medvedev thinks he’s going to lose.
Medvedev said “listen to me when I’m talking to you” to the umpire. He’s got a wicked temper.
But dad was coaching. Proved later, and Danii’s interviews were so good and insightful. Becoming a firm favourite of mine.
He knows he’s out of gas Lol
who
In the back of his mind, Medvedev knows he can’t win the title if this match goes 5 sets.
Meddy looking very fit out there, not affected by the long QF match. What’s he complaining about? About Stef’s father coaching court side? Meddy does behave like a bad ass sometimes!
No clear sign who will win this match so he should stay positive. I think Tsitsipas looks the easier opponent for Rafa in the final, Tsitsipas tends to make more errors and ROS not as good as Meddy’s.
“Meddy looking very fit out there, not affected by the long QF match”
I disagree; there’s been obvious signs of fatigue with some uncharacteristic mistakes at critical moments. However, it’s probably not that obvious to the untrained eye.
Medvedev tends to hide things quite well with his defiant attitude.
Ppl saying Rafa may have a fed 17 ao moment coming back from injury after 6 months but they forget Yes but there Rafa his opponent himself was coming back from injury too n is 4-5 years younger .here these 2 are not coming back from injury n are 10 years younger
Those are 2 very big differences
Oh man. Brutal night with just a few hours of sleep. Rafa played well. But, the quality of this semi makes be feel like Rafa has little chance in the finals. These guys are young and fit.
agreed. He needs this to be a 5 hour war.
Medvedev 3-0, maybe 3-1 in the final. Seeing it like a beach ball.
Medvedev will be 1.45
Nadal will win in 4 sets in d final against medvedev.
interesting
N basis for this ? Wishlist ? Or actual reasoning ? Please help with rationale
Ugh. Medvedev won easily. Sorry folks, but don’t see Rafa winning this. Maybe gets a set. Anyhow Rafa is healthy and the good news is that the next slam will be the French
Rafa 10-90…it’s a hc n dannil is best on hc..even better than novak now on hc .u saw how he tore him apart at uso final.Rafa will be all nerves n i think his fitness is not there. It will be 3 or max 4.Ofcourse after injury n Covid Rafa reaching final itself is huge.But it ends here .I was hoping this match goes 5 but this joker tsitsi naa..
Hope the universe and tennis God’s give Rafa all the courage n strength n acumen to pull this through
Sanju, let’s not get it twisted. Medvedev is not Djokovic and he will never be as good as djokovic at the Australian open. Let’s get real here. Medvedev is playing better than Djokovic? In what universe? He almost lost the quarterfinal against Felix who is not a top player and he did not win this semifinal easily. Can we be honest here? He won in 4 sets. How’s that easy?
Medvedev beat Djoko at the US open bc Djokovic choked and was a bundle of nerves trying to win the calendar grand slam. Djokovic didn’t even put up a fight. If Djokovic played his best, medvedev would have never won that match atleast not so easily. To prove my point, the next time Djokovic met him after the US open, Djokovic beat him in 3 sets bc Djokovic brought his A game.
I think it’s time some Rafans start believing in their player. Djokovic fans have so much faith in Djokovic that they are even predicting him to win the French open this year. can you imagine? Last year, the whole universe were predicting that medvedev will beat Djokovic in the final of 2021 Australian open bc up till the final, medvedev was in impressive form and yet in the final he was blown away by Djokovic. This year medvedev is not unbeatable and he’s no where near Djokovic’s best at the Australian open. To suggest he’s better than Djoko now on hardcourts is ludicrous. If Djokovic played this Australian open he would have beaten medvedev in the final bc Djoko is as good in Australia as Nadal is as good in the French.
I believe Nadal will win in 4 sets if he’s healthy and does not go walkabouts after winning a set or two sets and he has to win in 4 bc if it goes to 5, it’s advantage med. I believe Nadal can and will beat him based on how both of them have played so far and that is not wishful thinking.
Happy!! I agree with you damn it!!! We need to have more faith in Rafa!!! I think it’s just bcoz we have been so disappointed at the AO since after 2009 we use this as our basis !! But I agree with ure analysis, Rafa can take down Medvedev if he plays smart and tenacious tennis, and if his fitness keeps up! So I look forward to the final and hope for a great match, and also hope that Rafa raises that cup on Sunday!! Vamos!!
Already started using nice tactics to put down Djokovic greatness in Aus open and boasting Medvedev. So in case if Nadal wins then you can say Nadal defeated a guy who is better than Djokovic and the way Nadal played if Djokovic was there then he would have lost badly. So it was good for Djokovic that he saved himself.
The fact is anyone other than Djokovic in a grand slam final Nadal should be favourite considering the experience he has and he can handle the young guys better than anyone.
You mentioned US open and not the last AO, and if you want to consider their latest encounter then why not Paris open. Now you are saying Medvedev is better than Djokovic but I am sure if the final was between them then you would have commented this young guys are bunch of jokers and they will lose badly to him.
I agree with both happy and best player. Please go and look at nadal and medvedev h2h it’s nadal 3 – 1. Nadal lost the one match in 3 sets. Yes Nadal is 35 but i think the nature’s god is finally lift the AO curse on him and…..
Rafa cried after the match
https://twitter.com/TennisHd24/status/1486955619999432706?s=20&t=ScKrOHYF03_Q_7x4oPZ35w
Oh my God! I did not see that!
Rafa, you are my hero!
😍
Well played Rafa. Made Handsome look ordinary.
Go win 21 now.
I really like Danii but, “the hand of history” is on Rafa.
Sorry for quoting Blair, Amy. I promise never to do that again….;)
Tsk tsk Margot!!😀
I only just found out Rafa won!
PS Go Ash!💙💙💚💚💛💛 I so much want her to win..
Oh me too!! Badly lol Go Ash!!
Ash is so lovable Mona! And she has a fantastic game…full of craft, intelligence and variety..
Another big fan here. Beautiful person. Beautiful game.
Rafa is no Tsitsipas nor FAA, so Meddy won’t have it easy in the final. While Rafa’s physical conditions may not be ideal, Meddy doesn’t look great physically too after the SF.
Meddy could save MP vs FAA, I doubt Rafa would allow that to happen if Rafa is about to win. Rafa simply has more varieties in his game to make things difficult for Meddy. Meddy looks like a younger version of Djoko with his incredible gets and CC/DTL flat shots from both wings, plus his great serving. But, physically I doubt he’s in tip top conditions, so he may come out firing on all cylinders so Rafa has to be on the alert at the get go.
Vamos Rafa, please play your best tennis to win come Sunday!
I will try, no?
The important thing is that Novak is not on the other side of net.
Thank you luckystar. You articulated my thoughts better than I could have.
Luckystar, I totally agree with you. I’m not technically savvy like you about tennis but even I can see that Medvedev doesn’t have any strategy or variety in his game. He basically defends the baseline just like Djokovic does and Rafa is a tactical player.
Vamos Rafa!
And Djokovic is not?
Hahaha…
Rafa is not playing Djokovic tomorrow but as a matter of interest, Djokovic himself says his game is to defend the baseline.
Lucky,
Thanks for your analysis! Always great to read your thoughts.
My wifi was on the blink so I only just found out Rafa won!
I was filled with euphoria but reading the thread of the match a lot of people are downbeat..
Don’t know what to think!😕😕
It’s surely incredible Rafa is in the final given that 2 months ago he said he thought his career might be over!
I mean mad respect to him for his incredible guts and warrior spirit..!
Amy, there is nothing to be downbeat about regarding Rafa’s match. Rafa was untouchable in the first 2 sets. Berry went for broke in the 3rd set and credit to him he played better in that set but Rafa was on it in the 4th set which he won without any resistance from Berrettini.
Ok thanks nadline!
I skim read the match thread and some people seemed downbeat..😕😕
A win is a win…!
Yet another investigative report is out saying Novax’s positive covid test result for the 16 Dec is a fake.
Rafael Nadal brushes aside Matteo Berrettini to reach Australian Open final and close on 21st Grand Slam title
Rafael Nadal, who is eyeing a historic major title in improbable fashion, brushed the big-hitting Matteo Berrettini aside in four sets on Rod Laver Arena in what ended up being an inspired semi-final win. Nadal can move beyond rivals Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic with a 21st singles Slam in Melbourne on Sunday and will now await the winner of Daniil Medvedev’s clash with Stefanos Tsitsipas.
https://www.eurosport.co.uk/tennis/australian-open/2022/rafael-nadal-v-matteo-berrettini-follow-live-australian-open-semi-finals-in-melbourne_sto8741383/story.shtml
Berrettini threw everything he possibly could at his opponent, but in reality, Nadal never looked overly troubled, with the third set merely a minor blip as he surged on in front of the jubilant fans willing him on at a tournament where he is immensely popular.
Despite all his major titles, the sixth seed has just the solitary title at the first Grand Slam of the season, back in 2009. He will now have every chance of claiming his second in Sunday’s showpiece.
“The first two sets were some of the best I’ve played for a long time,” Nadal said in his on-court interview.
https://www.eurosport.co.uk/tennis/australian-open/2022/rafael-nadal-v-matteo-berrettini-follow-live-australian-open-semi-finals-in-melbourne_sto8741383/story.shtml