Expert picks are back for the Australian Open semifinals on Tuesday, when Rafael Nadal battles Matteo Berrettini and Daniil Medvedev goes up against Stefanos Tsitsipas. A three-team panel previews the action and makes its predictions.
(7) Matteo Berrettini vs. (6) Rafael Nadal
Ricky: The simple question is which Nadal is going to be on display. Will it be the one who was dealing with physical problems during his five-set struggle against Denis Shapovalov on Tuesday? Or is it going to be the one who is 8-0 this season and had been pretty much dominating all of his opponents prior to the quarterfinals? If it’s the latter, I can’t see Berrettini winning this matchup–not on anything other than grass or a lightning fast indoor hard court. There will be too many long rallies in which his vulnerable backhand gets exposed by the Spaniard’s heavy topspin forehand. To be clear, I wouldn’t bet with confidence on either side because of Nadal’s somewhat questionable status. But all things being equal the 20-time major champion should win this one. Nadal in 4: 6-3, 5-7, 6-4, 6-3.
Cheryl: The outcome of this match will depend heavily on whether Nadal has recovered from his five-set victory over Shapovalov. The Spaniard reported suffering heat stroke during the match and described himself as “physically destroyed” in his post-match presser. If the two days’ rest is sufficient, Nadal has to be considered the favorite in this match for several reasons. First, despite earning a spot in his first Australian Open semifinal Berrettini has been a bit vulnerable this fortnight. Only one of his matches was a routine straight-set win. Next, the slower surface (blue GreenSet) neutralizes some of the free points he usually gets on his first serve. Lastly, except for the issue with heat Nadal has been in impressive form. He has some extra pop on his serve and he has taken a more aggressive position on the baseline than usual. Nadal in 4: 6-4, 7-5, 3-6, 6-2.
Pete (Tennis Acumen): Despite five appearances in the final, the AO is Nadal’s “least” successful major. Currently he has a prime opportunity to accomplish the double-career Grand Slam with a win this year in Melbourne. After surviving a tougher than expected quarterfinal against Shapovalov, Nadal will not want to put himself in such dangerous scenarios in this match against even better competition. Similarly, Berrettini also blew a two sets to love lead in his quarter against a spirited and loose Gael Monfils before recovering in the fifth. The Italian now must face a man who has won 20 majors rather than someone with two major semifinal appearances to his name. At this stage of a slam, Nadal carries the banner for the Big 3 and will likely display the brand of tennis that the Big 3 absolutely deliver time and time again on the grandest of stages. Nadal gets to the doorstep of 21 as experience–especially at key junctures–wins this match. Nadal in 4: 6-3, 6-7(6), 7-5, 6-4.
(4) Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. (2) Daniil Medvedev
Ricky: My popcorn is popped for this one. They don’t necessarily hate each other at this point, but they definitely don’t like each other. Last year’s Grand Slam matchups were never going to be good. Tsitsipas was sapped of energy after beating Nadal in five sets in the Aussie Open quarterfinals, after which he got smoked by the Russian in the semis. Medvedev is probably never going to compete with the Greek on clay, and he didn’t in the French Open quarters. This one features a more level playing field. It is true Medvedev is coming off a four-hour and 42-minute thriller against Felix Auger-Aliassime, but the world No. 2 is one of the fittest guys in the business and he has never had any stamina-related issues. He should be fine. Tsitsipas played his best match in ages against Jannik Sinner, but asking for two in a row when he had previously been in a significant slump may be too much–especially against a backboard of an opponent who is going to make him hit tons and tons of tennis balls. Medvedev in 4: 4-6, 6-3, 7-6(6), 6-2.
Cheryl: Of the two semifinals, this is perhaps the more intriguing. Medvedev and Tsitsipas are not…friends. The two men had a highly publicized on-court argument at the Miami Masters in 2018, in which Medvedev accused Tsitsipas of calling him “a bullshit Russian” following a controversy over a strategically timed bathroom break by Tsitsipas. Since then their meetings have ranged from displays of simmering dislike and frosty indifference. The matchup heavily favors Medvedev, who holds a 6-2 record over Tsitsipas, but the Greek got a big win at the French Open last year. Honestly (and surprisingly), it’s Tsitsipas who has been the better player during week two. He dispatched Sinner in easy straight sets in the quarters, while Medvedev had to claw his way back from a two sets to love deficit against Auger-Aliassime. I still like the Russian in Melbourne, but this is not likely to be a straight set repeat of Medvedev’s SF win a year ago. Tsitsipas is going to make him work for it. Medvedev in 5: 5-7, 7-6, 6-3, 4-6, 7-5.
Pete: This will be the third time Medvedev and Tsitsipas will meet in the last five majors. The last four overall meetings have been split, with the victor winning in straight sets each time. Medvedev once again exhibited how difficult it is to oust him at a major in his resilient win over Auger-Aliassime in the quarters. In each of the five previous rounds he has faced a completely different opponent. Now he is standing two wins from consecutive major titles. Credit Tsitsipas for showing heart and determination in his round of 16 comeback win against Fritz. Despite being outplayed, he found a way to advance. After being able to exhale, he then mowed down Sinner in routine fashion in the quarters with a clean 4-for-4 in break points won. Although this match features world No. 2 and world No. 4, the rank order scale does not do justice to the vast gap in current form between these two. Medvedev, following a long exhale of his own after going the distance and saving a match point, should win this one in an easier manner. Medvedev in 4: 6-3, 6-7(4), 6-3, 7-5.
VAMOS! Really needed that hold to stop the bleeding. Drew a couple of fist pumps too!
Agreed. This was probably the key point in this match..Hope Rafa improves his serve to win more free points on serve…
Yes, needs the serve back. It was better in the last game.
174 kmh second serve to seal the game to love. Gradually getting back on track. Keep it up, champ.
Matteo, be easy on that serve and forehand, boy.
What is 174 kmh in miles per hour?
108 mph
Thanks!
Berrettini is staying with Nadal. This is dangerous for him. Rafa would much prefer to see berrettini choke like everyone else.
he did
Wow, some serious serving rhythm. 22 points in a row on serve? AGAINST RAFA? has to be a record
Berrettini is getting better. He’s playing the big points better against the top guys.
Berrettini played to about 70% of hs potential, overall.
There’s some positives there; he is playing the big points better, but he needs to sustain throughout the match.
Rafa – please serve this out else i will break my television
vmk1,
You and me both!
aggressive
COME ON! One more hold please. Some good serving please and a couple of forehands DTL!
F.I.N.A.L
Vamossssssssssssssssssss!
That’s a champion. Opportunistic, off court in under 3 hours. Weathered bad play in the third set. You have to tip your hat.
well summarised. another mental battle won and he has all the confidence now to go all the way. It will be a very complicated final but we know he’ll give it his all. And now just saying he recovered quite well from that marathon against Shapo. Good to hear, champ.
YESSSSSSSS! did it under 3 hours so alll good! Wasn’t at his best in that set but really turned it around. Changed his return position so well and just tightened the screws. Needs more aggression on the forehand and change direction more. He’ll know what to do.
#21, we are coming!!
Whom would I prefer? Surely Tsitsipas.
avoiding a fifth set was essential for his chances in the final
whatever the outcome Nadal just wants it to be 5 hours. I’m not sure he’s the favorite against either one if they are fresh.
Ricky, five hours or no, neither of them will be fresh, they both have played 5 setters! Their match will not be 3 sets for sure!!! Canāt c there being much of an advantage there!, except that theyāre both at least ten years younger!!
That final set was nerve wracking. I couldn’t watch during Rafa’s serve because I was too worried that he would get broken and be taken to a 5th set.
Vamosssssssssssssssssssss!
Me too! I switched off tv! I am really getting too old for this, lol!!!
Anonymous January 28, 2022 at 12:38 AM
“Youāre giving too much credit to Nadal; his opponentās do half the work for him.”
Game, set and match Rafa
63 62 36 63
Vamossssssssssssss!
VR,
Why do you prefer Tsitsipas? I want to know.
I am exhausted but relieved. I could not watch that last game. At least it did not go five sets.
I love your optimism. I am just so gun shy with this tournament.
weaker backhand
Ricky,
Thanks for that!
+Med’s superior ROS and defensive skills. I just hate to think how many returns Med is going to make. We have seen Rafa’s intensity wavering in matches and making him hit so many balls is going to be troublesome. I’ll save the rest of my thoughts until we know whom he is gonna play.
It is sinking in now.
Rafa is in the final!
ššš
Oh gosh!! My heart couldnāt take it midway in the fourth but I couldnāt believe it when Rafa broke and served it out!! Congratulations Rafa and all his fans!! Weāre in the finals!!! Vamos!!
People, especially commentators have simply not grasped the fact that Rafa is not bothered by big hitters.
I had to mute the sound because I could not listen to JMac anymore!
After the match McEnroe was full of admiration for Rafa. All the commentators and writers tend to undervalue Rafa’s qualities until they see the print of the nail.
I hate to say this because JMac was my idol back in the day, but he is a troll. No other way to describe him. š
He was certain,y not my idol back in the day. That was Borg. But I have to agree with you about him being a troll. I always had great admiration for his talent as a player, but he has become a caricature of himself as a tennis analyst. Itās a shame but I simply cannot listen to his drivel when he spouts off garbage about Rafa.
Congrats Rafa, into the final again! He got me worried about the fourth set after losing the third; so happy he finally came through!
Vamos Rafa, please win the final on Sunday!
Vamooosss! Great to get it done in 4! After all this is a semi final match and one should expect tight sets and going distance! I think the way this match webt was totally in Rafaās favor even though he lost the third set! Rafaās first serve is so significant and I hope it works best in the finals!
I would also prefer Tsitsipas as this surface is really Medās forte, he can chase every ball..I do not want Rafa engaging in endless rallies. Letās see what happens..
Vamos Rafa!
It is going to be Medvedev. Tsitsi will find a way to choke š