Expert picks are back for the Australian Open semifinals on Tuesday, when Rafael Nadal battles Matteo Berrettini and Daniil Medvedev goes up against Stefanos Tsitsipas. A three-team panel previews the action and makes its predictions.
(7) Matteo Berrettini vs. (6) Rafael Nadal
Ricky: The simple question is which Nadal is going to be on display. Will it be the one who was dealing with physical problems during his five-set struggle against Denis Shapovalov on Tuesday? Or is it going to be the one who is 8-0 this season and had been pretty much dominating all of his opponents prior to the quarterfinals? If it’s the latter, I can’t see Berrettini winning this matchup–not on anything other than grass or a lightning fast indoor hard court. There will be too many long rallies in which his vulnerable backhand gets exposed by the Spaniard’s heavy topspin forehand. To be clear, I wouldn’t bet with confidence on either side because of Nadal’s somewhat questionable status. But all things being equal the 20-time major champion should win this one. Nadal in 4: 6-3, 5-7, 6-4, 6-3.
Cheryl: The outcome of this match will depend heavily on whether Nadal has recovered from his five-set victory over Shapovalov. The Spaniard reported suffering heat stroke during the match and described himself as “physically destroyed” in his post-match presser. If the two days’ rest is sufficient, Nadal has to be considered the favorite in this match for several reasons. First, despite earning a spot in his first Australian Open semifinal Berrettini has been a bit vulnerable this fortnight. Only one of his matches was a routine straight-set win. Next, the slower surface (blue GreenSet) neutralizes some of the free points he usually gets on his first serve. Lastly, except for the issue with heat Nadal has been in impressive form. He has some extra pop on his serve and he has taken a more aggressive position on the baseline than usual. Nadal in 4: 6-4, 7-5, 3-6, 6-2.
Pete (Tennis Acumen): Despite five appearances in the final, the AO is Nadal’s “least” successful major. Currently he has a prime opportunity to accomplish the double-career Grand Slam with a win this year in Melbourne. After surviving a tougher than expected quarterfinal against Shapovalov, Nadal will not want to put himself in such dangerous scenarios in this match against even better competition. Similarly, Berrettini also blew a two sets to love lead in his quarter against a spirited and loose Gael Monfils before recovering in the fifth. The Italian now must face a man who has won 20 majors rather than someone with two major semifinal appearances to his name. At this stage of a slam, Nadal carries the banner for the Big 3 and will likely display the brand of tennis that the Big 3 absolutely deliver time and time again on the grandest of stages. Nadal gets to the doorstep of 21 as experience–especially at key junctures–wins this match. Nadal in 4: 6-3, 6-7(6), 7-5, 6-4.
(4) Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. (2) Daniil Medvedev
Ricky: My popcorn is popped for this one. They don’t necessarily hate each other at this point, but they definitely don’t like each other. Last year’s Grand Slam matchups were never going to be good. Tsitsipas was sapped of energy after beating Nadal in five sets in the Aussie Open quarterfinals, after which he got smoked by the Russian in the semis. Medvedev is probably never going to compete with the Greek on clay, and he didn’t in the French Open quarters. This one features a more level playing field. It is true Medvedev is coming off a four-hour and 42-minute thriller against Felix Auger-Aliassime, but the world No. 2 is one of the fittest guys in the business and he has never had any stamina-related issues. He should be fine. Tsitsipas played his best match in ages against Jannik Sinner, but asking for two in a row when he had previously been in a significant slump may be too much–especially against a backboard of an opponent who is going to make him hit tons and tons of tennis balls. Medvedev in 4: 4-6, 6-3, 7-6(6), 6-2.
Cheryl: Of the two semifinals, this is perhaps the more intriguing. Medvedev and Tsitsipas are not…friends. The two men had a highly publicized on-court argument at the Miami Masters in 2018, in which Medvedev accused Tsitsipas of calling him “a bullshit Russian” following a controversy over a strategically timed bathroom break by Tsitsipas. Since then their meetings have ranged from displays of simmering dislike and frosty indifference. The matchup heavily favors Medvedev, who holds a 6-2 record over Tsitsipas, but the Greek got a big win at the French Open last year. Honestly (and surprisingly), it’s Tsitsipas who has been the better player during week two. He dispatched Sinner in easy straight sets in the quarters, while Medvedev had to claw his way back from a two sets to love deficit against Auger-Aliassime. I still like the Russian in Melbourne, but this is not likely to be a straight set repeat of Medvedev’s SF win a year ago. Tsitsipas is going to make him work for it. Medvedev in 5: 5-7, 7-6, 6-3, 4-6, 7-5.
Pete: This will be the third time Medvedev and Tsitsipas will meet in the last five majors. The last four overall meetings have been split, with the victor winning in straight sets each time. Medvedev once again exhibited how difficult it is to oust him at a major in his resilient win over Auger-Aliassime in the quarters. In each of the five previous rounds he has faced a completely different opponent. Now he is standing two wins from consecutive major titles. Credit Tsitsipas for showing heart and determination in his round of 16 comeback win against Fritz. Despite being outplayed, he found a way to advance. After being able to exhale, he then mowed down Sinner in routine fashion in the quarters with a clean 4-for-4 in break points won. Although this match features world No. 2 and world No. 4, the rank order scale does not do justice to the vast gap in current form between these two. Medvedev, following a long exhale of his own after going the distance and saving a match point, should win this one in an easier manner. Medvedev in 4: 6-3, 6-7(4), 6-3, 7-5.
WWW?
All depends on rafas fitness..he did practice today and seemed fine is what I read on twitter ..it’s just the excess dehydration in flat 1.5 he of play that concerns me ..may God give Rafa all the strength
I got Tsitsipas vs Berrettini in the final.
I already said Nadal in 4 and I see that most agree. I hope that he won’t have physical issues.
For the other semifinal I have Tsitsipas in 4 or 5. I see that most picked Medvedev, but I think that this is a bad match-up for the Russian. Sure, he beat Novax in a GS, but Stefanos can just overpower him on this court, something that Djoker simply can’t.
When has he overpowered dannil anywer except RG last year ..i don’t think tsitsi can overpower Medvedev
Agreed! He isn’t Stan!
He’s not a power player!
that wasn’t even overpowering. He just won because he moves way better on clay.
I still don’t understand why is tsitsis game called as overpowering. He is a fluid shotmaker but he can’t outhit anyone. He does not have the game to just take the racquet out of your hands say like a Stan or thiem can do
Sorry sanju, didn’t see this. I just said above that he’s not like Stan. As you say, he’s a shotmaker.
The issue for Tsitsi is his ROS. I posted stats yesterday which show a big disparity in ROS rankings between him and Med. Tsitsi is #24 while Med is #4. How is Tsitsi going to break serve?
The disparity in ROS is even larger between Rafa and Berrettini. Rafa is #1 and Berrettini is around #70(quoting from memory). Those numbers suggest Rafa wins!
Amy..let’s just pray for rafa ..as usual I am nervous what is new about that 🙂
I am nervous too sanju!
What will be will be and we will support him in exactly the same way win or lose..
Berrettini is more of a throwback with his SHBH but maybe that’s the way we are going? I hope so
I think that the one concern with Rafa is his he will recover from the heat stroke. He has been playing well, the decision to go for more on his second serve even with the DF’s, has been a good one. That serve helped him win the fifth set.
I like the match up with Berrettini. He is a better player than the one time he played Rafa in 2019. But he has weaknesses that can be exploited. I know that Rafa senses the opportunity here. He has the high tennis i.q. He has the experience and the ability to adjust mid match. He has made adjustments to be able to keep playing. He has improved his serve and is playing more aggressive.
It could have been Novak in the semis. Rafa will want to take advantage of the fact that he’s not there.
Oh and I will be a nervous wreck. From the quarterfinals on I always get nervous. But this time there is some h on the line. It is something I did not allow myself to think about. But he is in the semifinals.
I do hope that physically he will be okay. He has had so much bad luck and heartache at the AO.
If the match was compatible with my time zone I would definitely watch it nny but it will be in the middle of the night. I am not someone who can function without sleep.
Just praying Rafa gets it done fast!
amy,
My days of staying up all night are over. It’s too hard to stay up for the night matches. The time difference meshes this the worst slam.
But I will be able to see it since it’s a day match. The question is whether I can survive it!
I really hope Rafa can do it quickly.
It is 3.30 or 4 am in the UK for us! haha. I will try to watch most of it.
Good luck nny and vr! I will be thinking of you and Rafa in my dreams!
I have been unwell recently so I simply can’t get up in the middle of the night!
Go Rafa!!💙💙💙💙💚💚💚💚💛💛💛💛
PS am really hoping for your sake Rafa does it in straights!
Many pundits are predicting Medvedev in 5 but I’m struggling to reconcile his sliding form with back-to-back 5 set victories, especially after having played already the equivalent of two 5 set matches.
I suspect a few are not giving Tsitsipas the respect he deserves.
It’s nothing to do with respect. The stats and h2h favour Med. That’s what most people go on unless there are compelling reasons to do with recent form. Tsitsi was very very good against Sinner but Sinner put him under zero pressure. Med isn’t going to let him play virtually the entire match on his fh which Sinner did.
And you were the one who had Sinner or Zverev winning the title…!
Of course Tsitsi can win. Tignor picked him to do so but there are solid reasons to pick Med.
amy,
Great reply! You saved me the trouble! It has zero to do with respect. Tsitsipas came in having recently undergone elbow surgery. I think people were not sure how he would do here. But he has made a very quick recovery.
Med is certainly a solid pick. He is tougher mentally than Tsitsipas. As you said, Sinner did not make any adjustments when what he did was not working. All Tsitsipas had to go is keep hitting forehand winners. Med is crafty and able to make adjustments. I don’t think his tough matches are a sign of weakness. I think his opponents played well. But he gutted it out, especially with Felix. He does not have up.
I expect a tough match. I am not saying that Tsitsipas can’t win. But I do think that Med at this time would be the favorite.
Med does not GIVE up!
I disagree. There are circumstances surrounding the H2H and it’s a weighing exercise with the current circumstances going into this match.
IMO, the circumstances going into this match probably shift the balance in favour of Tsistipas.
Stop preaching to me like I’m an idiot; I’m far more capable than all of you put together.
And I’m doing you a favour by posting here. Don’t lose sight of a good thing before it disappears.
You said either Zverev or Sinner would win the tournament!
How’s that going?!
That was before the tournament. They were the 2 form players at the time.
How’s your H2H theory at 2021 RG, USO, ATP Finals going?
Actually, it was before the 2022 season even started.
Amy have you scouted for info on Twitter if rafa was all good in practice?
Will match tomm be played under roof ?
Yes I looked and people think he is ok sanju!
He was practising a lot on serve which you would expect.
We just won’t know for sure until he plays.
I looked at a lot of forecasts. They all predict it being very hot in the morning with storms breaking out in the afternoon. The temperature is set to drop during the afternoon which is good but it will be humid.
It’s very likely they will play at least part of the match under the roof but honestly that’s better than him getting boiled in the sun.
Do you or anyone know how the roof works? Does it let the breeze in? Am hoping it does…
Even at nights it’s very humid. Today Ash said it was terrible humidity during the match ..yest dannil said the same that his DFS were due to the sweat on his palms
I think once roof comes on, it will be better..AC right
https://mobile.twitter.com/planettrish/status/1486615333993472006
They had to close the roof in the Tsitsipas/Sinner match. They said that initially it will feel hotter until the AC kicks in.
Rafa has not shown any nerves this tourney.
he had a couple ill-timed doubles vs. Mannarino
and the FH pass against Shapo
They all do that its called being human – strange how you can be nervous when you are the better player by a long way
5th set against Shapo was clutch. he would have easily lost something like that last year.
Yes, it’s very clutch when your opponent chokes and plays the complete opposite to how he played to get into that position.Very clutch.
It’s very clutch when your opponent has a huge physical edge but cant keep the ball in play because he’s so scared of losing as soon as he gets into a winning position.
Anon, It’s very clutch to win the first 2 sets losing just 7 games and to come back from suffering a heat stroke to taking the 5th set losing just 3 games.
Yes! Well said!
😀
The last post was meant for atul.
And nice to see you here!
Although it fits perfectly with the post above.
Oh cut the crap with your whining!
Shapo didn’t choke in the third and fourth sets when Rafa couldn’t do anything because of heat stroke. Shapo had break points in the first game of the fifth set. So what happened? Shapo was outplayed in the first two sets until he was hit with heat stroke. Otherwise he would have won it in three sets!
Rafa served great in the fifth set. This is a 35 year old player who we now know lost 10 pounds in that match! He deserves credit for somehow getting it done. Shapo’s inexperience did him in. He’s only 22 and I believe thus was his first quarterfinal in a slam.
Thats wrong though .Semis at Wimby and QF US Open . But yes still too inexperienced compared to Nadal in Slams but how is he supposed to get that unless he has matches like this?
Thanks for the corrections. I don’t disagree with you. He needs matches like this to mature and get experience so he can handle them better. Losing his cool and screaming at the chair umpire with offensive insults like him being corrupt, is not going to do it.
This was a good thing for Shapo. Unfortunately, he continued his tirade in his presser. That was a crappy thing to do. He lost the match and it is disappointing, but he will have a lot more chances.
That was to do with Rafa not getting warned for taking too long to serve which has been well noted over the years.
There is a shot clock now! Even the chair umpire blew Shapo off. That was just Shapo try8mg to throw off Rafa because he was out playing him.
Don’t you people ever give up on this? The shot clock is there for everyone to see it.
Oh and please spare me about this well noted crap! Novak has been one to take too long to serve for years!
Shapo was taking too long too
Until Rafa was hit with heat stroke.
My popcorn is popped as well….Rafa in 3; Med in 3.
Med has beef with Stefanos l, dislikes his mannerisms and called him a stupid Russian. Stefanos will pay
I am hoping for a 3 set match bcoz my heart honestly cannot take the anxiety with a prolonged match!! I can already feel my heart jumping out of my chest!! Sigh! Anyway, Vamos Rafa!!!