Expert picks are back for the Australian Open quarterfinals on Tuesday, when Rafael Nadal faces Denis Shapovalov and Matteo Berrettini meets Gael Monfils. A three-team panel previews the action and makes its predictions.
Denis Shapovalov vs. (6) Rafael Nadal
Ricky: Nadal played Yannick Hanfmann instead of Thanasi Kokkinakis in the second round, Adrian Mannarino instead of Hubert Hurkacz or Aslan Karatsev in the fourth round, and now Shapovalov instead of Alexander Zverev in the quarterfinals. If he wins this one, the Spaniard will run into either Matteo Berrettini or Gael Monfils instead of Novak Djokovic in the semis. Are the stars aligning for a 21st major title and a double career Grand Slam? It’s starting to feel that way. Nadal has been very good in his own right in addition to the good fortune. He is now 7-0 this season with a title at the Melbourne 250 and four convincing wins at this Aussie Open. Shapovalov is dangerous, but he probably doesn’t have the consistency to topple Nadal in a best-of-five situation. Make it four in a row for the Spaniard in this head-to-head series. Nadal in 4: 4-6, 6-3, 7-6(4), 6-3.
Cheryl: Honestly, I had fairly low expectations for Nadal at this Australian Open. The 2009 champion had been sidelined with his chronic foot injury for more than six months. He also had a nasty bout of Covid-19 in December, from which he only just recovered right before landing in Melbourne a few weeks ago. Nadal was handed a tough draw and I figured he’d just be too rusty. But here he is, in the quarters — and more importantly he is playing well. His serve looks better than it has in some time, and he’s getting plenty of pop on his forehand. Shapovalov has had a fantastic tournament so far. The Canadian shellacked Zverev and he helped lead his country to the ATP Cup crown. Shapovalov defeated Nadal in their first-ever meeting back in 2017, and he came within a few points of knocking the Spaniard out of the Rome Masters last year. His big-hitting game is the sort that can give Nadal difficulty, and he’s playing especially well in 2022 so far. Nadal should come through, but Shapovalov is going to make him work for it. Nadal in 5: 6-4, 5-7, 6-3, 2-6, 7-5.
Pete: Ironically, it is Nadal now that has commanded front and center attention at the Australian Open as a few key obstacles (Djokovic and Zverev) to his path to a potential 21st major title have been eliminated in the last week.Instead of Zverev as his opponent in the quarterfinals it is Shapovalov, who brushed away the Olympic and 2021 Nitto ATP Finals champion in straight sets. The Canadian will be grateful to have been able to conserve energy in the last round, as he was tested earlier in the tournament — even rallying from a two sets to one deficit in the second round. Nadal has taken a more direct route to the quarters, dropping just one set thus far. The 2009 AO champion has exited Melbourne at the quarterfinal stage seven times, including in three of the last four years. He has his eyes squarely on the prize that has eluded him for more than a decade and will likely power into the semis. Facing Shapovalov rather than Zverev at this stage of the tournament is certainly a break in getting closer to history. Nadal in 3: 7-5, 6-4, 6-3.
(17) Gael Monfils vs. (7) Matteo Berrettini
Ricky: I had Monfils in the semifinals before the tournament started and I’m not about to waffle — not when he has reeled off four consecutive straight-set victories. The Frenchman has always been one of the most talented players in the world. When he is healthy and motivated, he is also one of the best. Monfils is both of those things right now. Berrettin has been tested in all four of his matches, even though he didn’t lose a set to Pablo Carreno Busta on Sunday. The Italian has been good this fortnight, but not great. Their only previous Grand Slam encounter (2019 U.S. Open quarterfinals) went to a fifth-set tiebreaker. I expect something similar…but this time with Monfils winning. Monfils in 5: 6-4, 4-6, 7-6(5), 2-6, 6-3.
Cheryl: This is one of the more surprising quarterfinals. While Berrettini has been impressively consistent in majors for the past year or so, Monfils has been the exact opposite. The Frenchman could barely manage to win a single match a year ago. In the past week, he has dispatched all four of his opponents in straight sets. With Berrettini’s monster game, I expect that Monfils’ straight-set wins are going to come to an abrupt end. The Italian’s serve hasn’t been quite as effective on these slower hard courts as it is on grass, but it’s still a fierce weapon and will do some damage. The crowd will almost certainly be behind Monfils, who is one of the more popular veteran players on tour. But in the end I expect Berrettini to earn a spot in his first Australian Open semifinal. Berrettini in 4: 7-5, 4-6, 6-2, 6-4.
Pete: Let us not forget the torrid start to 2020 that Monfils exhibited, going 16-3 with two titles and losses only to Novak Djokovic twice and to Dominic Thiem. The pandemic seemed to impact Monfils to a greater extent than anyone else on the ATP Tour. The Frenchman lost the only four matches he played when he returned in September, then lost his initial three matches in 2021 before finally winning a match in May — a stretch of nearly 15 full months without a victory. As a result, he is absolutely relishing his success to begin 2022 — already winning a title in Adelaide and recording four straight-set wins in Melbourne. In fact, Monfils dropped just five games in each of his first two matches. This is only the second quarterfinal appearance for Monfils in his 17th visit to the AO. Berrettini has now earned quarterfinal berths at each of the last four majors. The Italian is 4-0 in tiebreakers in the tournament and certainly received his wakeup call in his third-round encounter with Alcaraz that went the distance. For Monfils, this is a significant increase in talent level across the net compared to his first four matches. Berrettini in 4: 7-6(4), 6-3, 4-6, 6-3.
And this is exactly why we love our Rafa! Fight and never give up! Aggressive serve saved him!
Vamoossss!
and with just a little bit of help from Shapo, as well.
Eventually he will run into a player that wont be so generous.
Yes, but Rafa was super generous in the 3rd set when he donated his service game! Clearly there was an issue. The match really should have been done in 3!!!
So happy for Rafa, into the SF again! I hope he has by now overcome that AO QF demon! It’s so nerve wrecking watching Rafa struggling on court, but thank God Rafa wins this in the end!
I like what he said, a present of life! Yeah, we have to enjoy and treasure every moment we see him on court, like what he said, he didn’t know two months ago how things would be going forward!
Vamos Rafa, keeps marching on!
YESSSSSSSSSS!!! What a mental giant! Didn’t just accept the physical hardships and stayed in there. MENTAL GIANT this guy is.
And kudos to Rafa’s brilliant serving. Didn’t allow any opportunities to Shapo. He didn’t even bother chasing some balls and kept pts short.
Rafa has broken the QF jinx and now has two days to recover. Advantage of being in the first half of the draw. Let’s hope this is going to be enough for him recover. SF is not going to be easy. I’d definitely prefer Monfils but again the Frenchman can make things really physical.
Berretini maybe better VR ..Rafa can pepper that bh n berretini does not move well
Yes, but he has a big serve and probably the biggest forehand out there. But true his backhand and movement are clear liabilities.
This one could be a long battle.
Hope not..one more long battle n if rafa wins .he will be seriously disadvantaged going into the final and here no 2 days recovery too after sf
no no, I meant Monfils vs Berettini
The next one I think rafa wins within 3 hours, as long as he keeps serving well.
Just listening to the commentators now swalling their words.
I love what Keoning had to say in his analysis about the match. Notably about the fifth set he said that this is y he is of the belief that Rafa is one of the best problem solvers in the history of the sport!! He kept things simple in the fifth and held his serve and won!!
Henman called it a Shapo win after he won the 4th set. He couldn’t see a way of Rafa winning from that point which explains why Henman didn’t win a slam. If you give up when you are 2 sets all you are not going to win; you might as well shake hands at that point.
For all his heart-breaks he also has his fair of five set epics where he came out on the right side at melbourne – shapo, dimitrov, that guy from the us in 2015, zverev, federer, also murray in 2007
U forgot verdasco ..that key match
Not such key, it my favorite Rafa match after Wimby 2008!!
Precisely Nadline!! At two sets each u must look at match as ure equal and ure starting as if is new match with just one set to play!! U can’t be like oh well I’m done!! It’s clearly not the mindset of a champion!!! Unless ure hampered, I can’t c the merit on thinking otherwise!!
Shapo has made really salty comments after the match. That too for a very long time going on and on. Rafa should stop practising with him.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.foxsports.com.au/tennis/australian-open/australian-open-2022-rafael-nadal-vs-denis-shapovalov-umpire-carlos-bernardes-corrupt-argument-video-reaction-press-conference/news-story/b4629967780576c3b634aefa74d2faee
Nadal and Djokovic have been slowing down the game since they picked up a tennis racquet. Everyone knows that gives you a huge, unfair advantage.
Bullshit! Stop being a sore loser!
It is true, especially for Nadal.
I cannot recall any other player that stops the server as much, showing he’s not ready.
How confident is Berrettini right now. Let’s hope he doesn’t put on his skirt the next time he sees Djokovic or Nadal at the other end of the court.
He screamed out ‘C’mon’ like a lion after he won the first set. Let’s see that against the top guys.
I like Shapo – but he is way out of line here. No one can accuse Carlos Bernardes of all people of giving Rafa unfair advantages, and since the introduction of the shot clock Rafa had his fair share of warnings and even some penalties. But umpires have a certain amount of wiggle room in order to be able to do the right thing in specific circumstances – like brutal temperatures! And Shapo himself could have been penalized for grossly insulting the chair umpire! It may be forgivable if this happens in the heat of the moment, but it is poor sportsmanship to repeat these insults in the presser. And Shapo most certainly did not lose this match because of Carlos Bernardes.
facts
I mean I really do not understand why Rafa does not get more night matches???
Because he asks for day ones, to allow more bite on his spin.
Simple as that.
What happened to Monfils? I thought he’s playing well, not losing a set, to reach the QF? Why so many errors in this match now? Berrettini is just playing solid tennis, not exceptional tennis and it looks like he will be winning in straight sets!
I think the heat and cumulative effect of time on court is finally taking its toll on the 35 yr old. You can’t be anything but your best against Berrettini because he gives absolutely nothing away. And Berrettini is on the improve, so they are are heading in the opposite direction.
Wow, Berrettini gave 5 cents away.
Berrettini values every shot like its gold, literally.
Thank God! I was wrong he did win in the fifth!
But it should have been in straights.
I knew that this match would be difficult just because it’s a qf!
I was unwell so couldn’t watch..
What a win for Rafa though! To win in the fifth against a guy so much younger after being out so long. The guy is unbelievable. That’s why he is so great…
💙💙💙💙💚💚💚💚💛💛💛💛💜💜💜💜💓💓💓💓
Well played Rafa! What a fight, what a fighter! Hope he’s fully recovered by the next match.
As for Shap how bleak the land of missed opportunity must be,
Meanwhile C’mon Monfils! The gorgeous Matteo has plenty more time for slams, Gael doesn’t.
Monfils up a break in the fourth Margot!
Could be going 5…
Allez Gael!
Looks like Monfils has finally come alive! Come on, make a fight out of it, just like Rafa did in his QF match Vs Shapo!
They’re going 5!
Double break for Matteo. This match is done I guess.
Rafa vs Berettini it is then? I am so glad Rafa has two days to recuperate. Another good news is that the weather on Friday and Sunday doesn’t look that bad. Today maximum was 34 degrees Celsius and Friday max is 28 degrees. I feel a difference of 4-5 degrees makes a LOT of difference.
Rafa to win in 3 tight sets.
He really needs the 2 days vr!
It’s going to be Berrettini.
I think Berrettini will be tough because he served lights out over PCB with 77% first serve and 28 aces over 3 sets and he survived Alcaraz.
I see that Rafa had 11 dfs for the last match so the dfs of last year are back. This isn’t good! What’s the issue?
Rafa’s going for much more on his serve, both first and second. Gonna be more df’s.
Ramara,
Yes, I agree. I am okay with the DF’s because Rada is winning. He had to do something about his serve. The price is more DF’s. Brad Gilbert was praising Rafa’s serve during the match. He thinks it’s a good thing that he has gotten more aggressive. Also more speed, especially with the second serve. He has to make adjustments. Rafa also had 8 aces.
These DF’s are certainly not terrible news. Sure, he’d like to reduce them but this is the biggest I’ve ever seen him go for second serves. Can’t recall the exact game but but he even won a free point BP down by kicking second serve a serve at 166 KMH to Shapo’s forehand in the corner. This is pretty gutsy for someone who’s always kept a very high margin on second serves for most of his career. It is the need of the hour and he is responding.
Berettini likes to slice a lot and Rafa is going to run-around those quite often. I just watched sets 1 and 2 highlights since I had missed them and honestly Rafa was playing AMAZING. I think he’s passed his toughest test before the final. I am confident he’ll win this in 3 or may be 4.
2 days will help him to recover and this win’s GOT to give him so much confidence and belief. He knows he can win this title and that it is a great opportunity. I can’t help but feel confident about his chances of winning here (yes I know Berettini is tough and we’ll prob get to play a wall i.e. Medvedev in the final).
Let Medvedev reach first .he was all up n down vs cressy ..it’s not a given that meddy will reach though he is firm fav ..tsitsi can catch fire n stun med too
Med looking quite vulnerable. Wouldn’t be surprised If he doesn’t reach the final. I think Sinner will beat Tsitsi although I don’t have a huge amount of confidence in him…
Med looking vulnerable???
VR,
I posted my comment befire I read yours. But I now understand the strategy with the serve.,Go for more and take the DF’s. It’s part of being more aggressive.,
I absolutely agree that this was Rafa’s biggest test. In fact, I says that I thought Berrettini would benefit from the five setter with Alcaraz. When you can survive going up two sets and then having your opponent win the next two to force a fifth set and win, that’s la big deal. It was hell to live through it.
I am grateful they Rafa has two days off. He needs it. I was so focused on one match at a time that I didn’t even know who Rafa would play in the semis. Then I checked the other day and saw Berrettini and Monfils. But now that Rafa is in the semis, I really don’t care! Either one would have been fine with me. After hearing on and on how Rafa wouldn’t get past the quarterfinal becee as use of Zverev, I am just done with that.
I am still exhausted from last night and early morning, but thrilled with Rafa’s win. I found myself thinking last night that he is playing with a condition that is incurable. Yet here he is!
Rafa, you are one in a million!
As for Shaps’s whinging. He is a young fit guy who is playing greats who are 12/ 13 years older than him. I refer to both Djokovic and Rafa as Shaps was whinging a lot after the wimby match as well as today.
If he loses he loses! It’s on him. Rafa should really have won the match in straights so I don’t think he has much to complain about.
ATP calls time on toilet breaks in new guidelines for men’s tennis
Players limited to one three-minute bathroom break per match
Additional two minutes to be allowed to change clothes
rict new guidelines on toilet breaks during matches have been sent to players by the ATP after growing calls to make lengthy visits to the bathroom a thing of the past. The guidelines for the men’s game will limit bathroom breaks to one per match, lasting no longer than three minutes from the time the player enters the facility.
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2…ilet-breaks-in-new-guidelines-for-mens-tennis
Shapovalov doesn’t seem to realise that the rules have changed. Players are allowed time during the toilet break to change their clothes.