Expert picks are back for the Australian Open quarterfinals on Tuesday, when Rafael Nadal faces Denis Shapovalov and Matteo Berrettini meets Gael Monfils. A three-team panel previews the action and makes its predictions.
Denis Shapovalov vs. (6) Rafael Nadal
Ricky: Nadal played Yannick Hanfmann instead of Thanasi Kokkinakis in the second round, Adrian Mannarino instead of Hubert Hurkacz or Aslan Karatsev in the fourth round, and now Shapovalov instead of Alexander Zverev in the quarterfinals. If he wins this one, the Spaniard will run into either Matteo Berrettini or Gael Monfils instead of Novak Djokovic in the semis. Are the stars aligning for a 21st major title and a double career Grand Slam? It’s starting to feel that way. Nadal has been very good in his own right in addition to the good fortune. He is now 7-0 this season with a title at the Melbourne 250 and four convincing wins at this Aussie Open. Shapovalov is dangerous, but he probably doesn’t have the consistency to topple Nadal in a best-of-five situation. Make it four in a row for the Spaniard in this head-to-head series. Nadal in 4: 4-6, 6-3, 7-6(4), 6-3.
Cheryl: Honestly, I had fairly low expectations for Nadal at this Australian Open. The 2009 champion had been sidelined with his chronic foot injury for more than six months. He also had a nasty bout of Covid-19 in December, from which he only just recovered right before landing in Melbourne a few weeks ago. Nadal was handed a tough draw and I figured he’d just be too rusty. But here he is, in the quarters — and more importantly he is playing well. His serve looks better than it has in some time, and he’s getting plenty of pop on his forehand. Shapovalov has had a fantastic tournament so far. The Canadian shellacked Zverev and he helped lead his country to the ATP Cup crown. Shapovalov defeated Nadal in their first-ever meeting back in 2017, and he came within a few points of knocking the Spaniard out of the Rome Masters last year. His big-hitting game is the sort that can give Nadal difficulty, and he’s playing especially well in 2022 so far. Nadal should come through, but Shapovalov is going to make him work for it. Nadal in 5: 6-4, 5-7, 6-3, 2-6, 7-5.
Pete: Ironically, it is Nadal now that has commanded front and center attention at the Australian Open as a few key obstacles (Djokovic and Zverev) to his path to a potential 21st major title have been eliminated in the last week.Instead of Zverev as his opponent in the quarterfinals it is Shapovalov, who brushed away the Olympic and 2021 Nitto ATP Finals champion in straight sets. The Canadian will be grateful to have been able to conserve energy in the last round, as he was tested earlier in the tournament — even rallying from a two sets to one deficit in the second round. Nadal has taken a more direct route to the quarters, dropping just one set thus far. The 2009 AO champion has exited Melbourne at the quarterfinal stage seven times, including in three of the last four years. He has his eyes squarely on the prize that has eluded him for more than a decade and will likely power into the semis. Facing Shapovalov rather than Zverev at this stage of the tournament is certainly a break in getting closer to history. Nadal in 3: 7-5, 6-4, 6-3.
(17) Gael Monfils vs. (7) Matteo Berrettini
Ricky: I had Monfils in the semifinals before the tournament started and I’m not about to waffle — not when he has reeled off four consecutive straight-set victories. The Frenchman has always been one of the most talented players in the world. When he is healthy and motivated, he is also one of the best. Monfils is both of those things right now. Berrettin has been tested in all four of his matches, even though he didn’t lose a set to Pablo Carreno Busta on Sunday. The Italian has been good this fortnight, but not great. Their only previous Grand Slam encounter (2019 U.S. Open quarterfinals) went to a fifth-set tiebreaker. I expect something similar…but this time with Monfils winning. Monfils in 5: 6-4, 4-6, 7-6(5), 2-6, 6-3.
Cheryl: This is one of the more surprising quarterfinals. While Berrettini has been impressively consistent in majors for the past year or so, Monfils has been the exact opposite. The Frenchman could barely manage to win a single match a year ago. In the past week, he has dispatched all four of his opponents in straight sets. With Berrettini’s monster game, I expect that Monfils’ straight-set wins are going to come to an abrupt end. The Italian’s serve hasn’t been quite as effective on these slower hard courts as it is on grass, but it’s still a fierce weapon and will do some damage. The crowd will almost certainly be behind Monfils, who is one of the more popular veteran players on tour. But in the end I expect Berrettini to earn a spot in his first Australian Open semifinal. Berrettini in 4: 7-5, 4-6, 6-2, 6-4.
Pete: Let us not forget the torrid start to 2020 that Monfils exhibited, going 16-3 with two titles and losses only to Novak Djokovic twice and to Dominic Thiem. The pandemic seemed to impact Monfils to a greater extent than anyone else on the ATP Tour. The Frenchman lost the only four matches he played when he returned in September, then lost his initial three matches in 2021 before finally winning a match in May — a stretch of nearly 15 full months without a victory. As a result, he is absolutely relishing his success to begin 2022 — already winning a title in Adelaide and recording four straight-set wins in Melbourne. In fact, Monfils dropped just five games in each of his first two matches. This is only the second quarterfinal appearance for Monfils in his 17th visit to the AO. Berrettini has now earned quarterfinal berths at each of the last four majors. The Italian is 4-0 in tiebreakers in the tournament and certainly received his wakeup call in his third-round encounter with Alcaraz that went the distance. For Monfils, this is a significant increase in talent level across the net compared to his first four matches. Berrettini in 4: 7-6(4), 6-3, 4-6, 6-3.
Berrettini seems like a nice guy, I like his on court interview, jovial and he gives sensible answers.
I hope Rafa wins his SF, in three or four sets, and not a long match as he needs time to recover now that he’s 35.
As for Shapo, he sounded like a sore loser; I mean, he should concentrate on how he’s going to play the match to win, regardless of favourable or unfavourable conditions.
Because he beat Rafa in Abu Dhabi he thought the match was on his racquet but Rafa was so rusty then and even then they were one set all with Denis winning the 3rd set TB to 10.
Shapo also had no trouble beating Zverev in the 4th round. for some reason, Zverev might as well not have turned up because he didn’t compete at all and Shapo didn’t really have to do much.
lucky,
Yes! I agree! It was disgraceful when Shapo complained to the chair umpire that Rafa.was taking too long to get out of his chair after losing the second set. Hey everyone guess what! There is a shot clock now, do no more of this crap about going after Rafa. Focus on your game and not whining like a baby.
approved
I just looked up 3 weather forecasts for Friday.
All 3 forecast rain and storms so most likely they will play with the roof. Roof alert!!😱😱
I don’t think Berrettini plays well indoors does he? Obviously it will help him serve even more aces…
I think that would be fine for Rafa because he won’t have to play in the heat and he says he doesn’t mind when the roof is closed. That’s quite different from an indoor court.
Yes good point!
Rafa’s notorious misfortune in Australia strikes again. This should have been over in 3, instead Nadal almost lost. I don’t think that the heat was the main factor here, most likely he just caught a stomach bug. In the third set he thought that the heat is getting to him, but I think it was the bug all along. He played day matches last week and didn’t have any problems.
Since he is not injured and he can rest for two days, his chances going forward are intact. Right now it looks like if someone wants to take Rafa out of the tournament he’ll just have to kill him.
Shapovalov says he was the better player in the 3rd and 4th set but Rafa was the better player in the 1st and second set and in a best of 5 sets match, the winner is the better player in the 5th set and that was Rafa.
The NextGen are getting impatient that the old guard refuse to go away.
Press conference (translation from Spanish)
“I had a bona fide heat stroke. I felt my stomach close up, was actually feeling slightly dizzy, my body and breathing felt all wrong.”
“I was worried because I was feeling pretty bad. After the 4th set, the doctor came and I left with him to get checked – blood pressure, etc. Everything was sort of OK which helped me calm down and focus on being competitive”
That’s good news. I was worried that he couldn’t last a 5 setter because he is unfit.
Good thing is no direct heat match going forth..not sure timing of first semi. It surely will start much later than today’s time of 2 pm
I think it was amy who brought up concerns about heat. Given that Rafa had Covid in December and apparently had a high fever, that could also play into him having trouble with the heat. Not to mention that he has been off for six months and not played much.
I am grateful it was not the foot of any physical issue. I don’t know how he managed to go out in that fifth set and get the win.
They are repeating the fifth set on the tennis channel now.
And of course, the most important thing for Rafa is that someone took out Djokovic for him.
Otherwise, it would be all for nothing…
Yes it was me nny! I thought it was a big mistake for him to ask for a day match given the issues he has had.
Anyone remember RG 2014 final when both Rafa and Djokovic were all over the place and exhausted in the heat in the 4th set?! And it was nowhere near as hot. That image from the past was really playing on my mind.
Post viral fatigue can get triggered by heat as well! Ie you can go from small amounts of fatigue to feeling like you are going to fall over very fast…!
Amy the sf is at 230 pm on Friday ..Rafa said he will be first as his side played first ..so another day session with no practice for final in night conditions
Rafa played at night against Karen sanju! Also he played at night on Laver when he won the warm up tournament. I don’t think that will be an issue.
But the weather is not going to be as hot. So he should be okay.
amy,
I remember that 2014 match at RG very well. I think Novak threw up on court at one point. Rafa was looking done in, but fortunately he was able to close it out. I think Novak DF’d to give him the win.
I think it would have been a good call if Rafa had not had Covid so recently. He was playing lights out for two sets.
But he said he had heat stroke and was very dizzy. That can be serious.
Rafa said in his presser that who plays when is the tournament’s call and that he has no input. He assumed he’d play in the first semi because he played the first quarter.
not true
I don’t know why Rafa doesn’t wear a white cap in high heat/sun/humidity. He’s got virtually no hair left on top! Is it in his Nike contract that he has to wear that band? Or is it just that he’s a creature of habit?
Rafa thinks he has a love affair with the sun and I can’t remember ever seeing him wear one.
He wouldn’t be able to absorb all that attention he gets and seeks if he was wearing a hat, also.
If he was wearing a hat, he would just be playing the tennis for the tennis, and that’s not Rafa.
Someone has their nose out of joint!
That’s why they are ‘Anonymous’. 😉
Well said!
😉
I see that you’re all so brave now that Novak is not in the tournament.
Otherwise, there would be an excuse after excuse for Rafa…