Expert picks are back for the Australian Open quarterfinals on Tuesday, when Rafael Nadal faces Denis Shapovalov and Matteo Berrettini meets Gael Monfils. A three-team panel previews the action and makes its predictions.
Denis Shapovalov vs. (6) Rafael Nadal
Ricky: Nadal played Yannick Hanfmann instead of Thanasi Kokkinakis in the second round, Adrian Mannarino instead of Hubert Hurkacz or Aslan Karatsev in the fourth round, and now Shapovalov instead of Alexander Zverev in the quarterfinals. If he wins this one, the Spaniard will run into either Matteo Berrettini or Gael Monfils instead of Novak Djokovic in the semis. Are the stars aligning for a 21st major title and a double career Grand Slam? It’s starting to feel that way. Nadal has been very good in his own right in addition to the good fortune. He is now 7-0 this season with a title at the Melbourne 250 and four convincing wins at this Aussie Open. Shapovalov is dangerous, but he probably doesn’t have the consistency to topple Nadal in a best-of-five situation. Make it four in a row for the Spaniard in this head-to-head series. Nadal in 4: 4-6, 6-3, 7-6(4), 6-3.
Cheryl: Honestly, I had fairly low expectations for Nadal at this Australian Open. The 2009 champion had been sidelined with his chronic foot injury for more than six months. He also had a nasty bout of Covid-19 in December, from which he only just recovered right before landing in Melbourne a few weeks ago. Nadal was handed a tough draw and I figured he’d just be too rusty. But here he is, in the quarters — and more importantly he is playing well. His serve looks better than it has in some time, and he’s getting plenty of pop on his forehand. Shapovalov has had a fantastic tournament so far. The Canadian shellacked Zverev and he helped lead his country to the ATP Cup crown. Shapovalov defeated Nadal in their first-ever meeting back in 2017, and he came within a few points of knocking the Spaniard out of the Rome Masters last year. His big-hitting game is the sort that can give Nadal difficulty, and he’s playing especially well in 2022 so far. Nadal should come through, but Shapovalov is going to make him work for it. Nadal in 5: 6-4, 5-7, 6-3, 2-6, 7-5.
Pete: Ironically, it is Nadal now that has commanded front and center attention at the Australian Open as a few key obstacles (Djokovic and Zverev) to his path to a potential 21st major title have been eliminated in the last week.Instead of Zverev as his opponent in the quarterfinals it is Shapovalov, who brushed away the Olympic and 2021 Nitto ATP Finals champion in straight sets. The Canadian will be grateful to have been able to conserve energy in the last round, as he was tested earlier in the tournament — even rallying from a two sets to one deficit in the second round. Nadal has taken a more direct route to the quarters, dropping just one set thus far. The 2009 AO champion has exited Melbourne at the quarterfinal stage seven times, including in three of the last four years. He has his eyes squarely on the prize that has eluded him for more than a decade and will likely power into the semis. Facing Shapovalov rather than Zverev at this stage of the tournament is certainly a break in getting closer to history. Nadal in 3: 7-5, 6-4, 6-3.
(17) Gael Monfils vs. (7) Matteo Berrettini
Ricky: I had Monfils in the semifinals before the tournament started and I’m not about to waffle — not when he has reeled off four consecutive straight-set victories. The Frenchman has always been one of the most talented players in the world. When he is healthy and motivated, he is also one of the best. Monfils is both of those things right now. Berrettin has been tested in all four of his matches, even though he didn’t lose a set to Pablo Carreno Busta on Sunday. The Italian has been good this fortnight, but not great. Their only previous Grand Slam encounter (2019 U.S. Open quarterfinals) went to a fifth-set tiebreaker. I expect something similar…but this time with Monfils winning. Monfils in 5: 6-4, 4-6, 7-6(5), 2-6, 6-3.
Cheryl: This is one of the more surprising quarterfinals. While Berrettini has been impressively consistent in majors for the past year or so, Monfils has been the exact opposite. The Frenchman could barely manage to win a single match a year ago. In the past week, he has dispatched all four of his opponents in straight sets. With Berrettini’s monster game, I expect that Monfils’ straight-set wins are going to come to an abrupt end. The Italian’s serve hasn’t been quite as effective on these slower hard courts as it is on grass, but it’s still a fierce weapon and will do some damage. The crowd will almost certainly be behind Monfils, who is one of the more popular veteran players on tour. But in the end I expect Berrettini to earn a spot in his first Australian Open semifinal. Berrettini in 4: 7-5, 4-6, 6-2, 6-4.
Pete: Let us not forget the torrid start to 2020 that Monfils exhibited, going 16-3 with two titles and losses only to Novak Djokovic twice and to Dominic Thiem. The pandemic seemed to impact Monfils to a greater extent than anyone else on the ATP Tour. The Frenchman lost the only four matches he played when he returned in September, then lost his initial three matches in 2021 before finally winning a match in May — a stretch of nearly 15 full months without a victory. As a result, he is absolutely relishing his success to begin 2022 — already winning a title in Adelaide and recording four straight-set wins in Melbourne. In fact, Monfils dropped just five games in each of his first two matches. This is only the second quarterfinal appearance for Monfils in his 17th visit to the AO. Berrettini has now earned quarterfinal berths at each of the last four majors. The Italian is 4-0 in tiebreakers in the tournament and certainly received his wakeup call in his third-round encounter with Alcaraz that went the distance. For Monfils, this is a significant increase in talent level across the net compared to his first four matches. Berrettini in 4: 7-6(4), 6-3, 4-6, 6-3.
Why is rafa getting only day matches..I fail to understand again day match tomorrow in this brutal heat
probably requested it
Yes, Rafa may have requested it for some reason, since Rafa vs. Shapo should have been a very attractive night session. I fail to understand, however, why Rafa might prefer to play during the brutal heat…
I did some background reading – and I became very pessimistic about Rafa’s title chances. Unlike Novak whose alleged corona infection was conveniently totally asymptomatic (cough, cough…), Rafa was really sick for a week. And his foot prevented him from practicing as hard as he normally does. He even said that it is still bothering him. It is a miracle that he plays as well as he has done so far. Experience, intelligence and willpower made it possible. But so far he hasn’t been physically tested and I have a hard time to believe that Rafa is already fit enough for going the distance against the top players who are a lot younger than Rafa. He might be able to survive one five setter. But can he really recuperate fast enough and play again on a high level two days later? It just isn’t realistic IMO.
Maybe rafafans should just enjoy the fact that he reached the second week, defended his points from last year and seems to enjoy himself. Everything else is icing on the cake.
did he really say the foot is still bothering him?
No he said so far so good ..why so pessimistic littlefoot, reading that post made me more nervous
VR, thoughts about tomm ?
The left foot always bothers Rafa. The only question is how much? That is, whether he can tolerate the pain as he has done for almost all of his career. If the pain isn’t too bad he can reach a state of deep concentration, something he normally does when playing, along with high adrenaline, which will block the pain, if it’s not too severe. I’m arthritic; I can do it myself so I know how it works. But pain can reach a point where it screams at you and overwhelms everything. Or maybe the foot simply refuses to move properly as happened in DC. No way of predicting, we just have to see what happens.
Why does it matter if he practised or not in December . He is now playing and practising since Jan 1 and has 7 matches under the belt …
Yep, I’ve not read/heard anything from Rafa indicating he still has trouble with his foot. I totally understand the concern regarding physical conditioning and we will only find out in the next matches. Let’s hope he can finish Shapo off within 4 sets.
In my view, it is certainly going to be his biggest challenge so far. Shapo appears to be calmer now and doing a better job with his mentality (he mentioned earlier that he was trying to achieve ‘Rafa mentality’!), which is helping him with consistency.
I never like Rafa playing lefties with big forehands, since it’s difficult for him to control the rallies. We’ve seen Rafa alter his return position very smartly so far and I think this is key. He dropped too further in set 3 against Karen but moved up in set 4 and that is where he’d want to be. Helps him keep rallies shorter and get inside the baseline but Shapo has a huge good kick serve and it is going to JUMP in the heat so let’s see how Rafa chooses to deal with second serve returns. This is key and he needs to make Shapo suffer there given how big the latter’s first serve is.
This CAN definitely go the distance but I see Rafa winning in 4 sets. His court awareness has been great and I am loving the use of backhand slices (dare I say that shot looks slightly improved but will wait to see more of it).
Keep going for that serve, Rafa. Don’t worry too much about DF’s. The guy is now 35 and he needs to take more chances with his serve and I am glad he is doing that!
I found an interview on youtube where Rafa said that the foot is still bothering him a bit, but apparently right now it is not interfering with his level of play – so far!
Personally I am more worried about the potential impact of his corona infection. He said, that he had high feaver for a few days, and then he could not do much for a week because he felt totally wiped out and tired. These corona infections are tricky, and it worries me that Rafa did experience significant symptoms despite being vaxxed. So far I had assumed that he had only a mild case. But that is apparently not the case. I saw a few cases in my immediate surrounding, and even those who did not develop long covid, took a while before they were fully fit again.
I do not want to be pessimistic at all, but right now I feel that Rafa has already more than exceeded realistic expectations, and everything else is cake icing…and it is of course possible that there will be lots and lots of icing 😉 I would not complain!
Maybe Rafa didn’t request the day match! Maybe no one wanted it because of the brutal heat!
I do worry about the physical fitness part of this. If it goes 5 then that has to favour the much younger guy.
Also there is this time limit now on bathroom breaks making it more difficult for Rafa to change his kit. We know how much he sweats!
Anyway, maximum love and respect for Rafa for what he has achieved already.
Go get the win champ!
I’m not looking ahead and thinking about title chances. All I am thinking is tomorrow. There are 2 matches still to play to get to title match. And if the stars are aligning ,so be it ..and frankly if he has to get to 21, it cannot come easy at 35 years…it will be tough at this age .all i hope is he stays healthy and fights for it and is able to give it his best
100%, he has two tough matches before he even gets a shot at the title. It is natural to get excited, especially knowing there is certainly no Djokovic on the other side. He has a shot and it would probably be his greatest slam victory but yeah, there’s much tennis to be played.
Rafa will have to work hard to take this matc he also needs to serve very well to win easy points.
Vamos Rafa!
Ricky, trying to get my head round why you think Rafa had a lucky escape from Kokkinakis, Hurkacz and Karatsev. Forgive me, but I think the 20 time GS Champion deserves more respect.
I am super nervous about this match!
But all 3 of the expert picks have picked Rafa..that does mean something..
Come on Rafa!!💙💙💚💚💛💛💛💛💜💜💜💜
Me too very nervous mainly as it’s qf n rafas Waterloo at AO is the qf
Well qfs have been a problem also at RG!! He has got nervous and tight numerous times in qfs in the last few years.
Pray he is calm for this match. His tennis iq is way higher than Shaps’.
I have difficulty imagining Rafa pushing for the day match! He is very accommodating in terms of going with what the schedulers want for crowds and tv and has often played night matches..
Seeing the pics of the players collapsing in the heat over 3 sets! I am quite worried..
Maybe tiley is ensuring Rafa does not win this to protect his friend Novak to get to 21 first haha
It’s a thought!😀😀
Tiley seems to spend half his life talking to Novax! Only yesterday he was saying that he had just been talking with Novax about next year’s AO!!😀
Maybe Novax is giving Tiley useful tips about the scheduling this year!
I wonder if Novax has some incriminating photos of Tiley ?because he seems to be in Novax’s pocket..
Rafa will need to serve and return better than he did against Mannarino. More like how he played KK.
Yes agreed! How he played in the fourth set against Karen should be what he is aiming for.
He has to play aggressive. I read reports of how Zverev played and they all said he was very passive and served terribly.
Unless things change radically Rafa will be the fave at RG, whether ND is there or not.
Monfils and Nadal should both win but there’s a strong chance it could go the other way in both of these matches. Shapo in 5 is a real possibility.
If it goes to 5 sets, Nadal is on trouble. Same with Monfils.
I looked at Shaps’s results for the last year. He has had a lot of losses to unseeded and significantly lower ranked players. He seems to love the big stage and really turn in on against the top players. Ie how he played Rafa in Rome, the match with Djokovic at wimby and how he played against Murray ( although Andy played poorly).
I expect him to come out firing like he did against Djokovic at wimby.
But his results last year in general were pretty poor.
How Rafa serves will be very important. If Rafa serves well it will be hard for him to win.
Shapo is playing better than he’s ever played right now due to the intangibles. Ads mentiond earlier, these young players go through a significant growth phase each year and it’s clearly evident with some of their results in this AO.
Nadal should win in 4 but if there is any lapses and it goes to 5; he is in trouble.
That straight sets demolition of Zverev spells big time danger for Nadal.
Brad Gilbert says the other night on ESPN that the serve will be the deciding factor. He said if Shapo can serve well then he can win. But if he does not serve well and Rafa is able to serve well then he will win.
Shapo is going to come out blasting. Rafa has to be ready. I don’t know if his results for the last year will indicate what might happen here. He is coming off a big win against Zverev. Everyone and his brother was saying Zverev was the co-favorite along with Med. That’s all I heard. How tough it would be for Rafa in the QF’s. Well it never happened. You actually have to show up and play well enough to win. Zverev did not do it.
Nny, I expect Shaps to come out firing.
I also think the serve will be key.
Vamos Rafa!
PS I really am worried about the brutal heat. I don’t see Rafa winning a five set match given he has played and trained so little this last year..not in the brutal day time heat..
amy,
I am concerned about the heat. But when it’s a night match then we find other things to worry about.
Rafa sweats profusely. In the match with Mannarino he had to change his clothes after that marathon TB.
It’s not going to be easy. Rafa has a few more gears, but I don’t know if he can get there in this tournament.
I’ve just watched Zverev vs Shapo. Zverev was very passive almost as if he’d just woken up and didn’t realise it was a real match.
I seem to remember reading Zverev had 3 aces and 8 dfs which is absolutely terrible for a player whose serve can be such a weapon..
That is exactly how Zverev played in that match.
Rafa plays against an opponent which is lefty and has a single-handled backhand. Two factors which usually work in his favour. He just played a crafty lefty so he has proper training.
Sure, Shapo is younger, but he played significantly more than Nadal lately. Both had Covid-19 recently, they got it together in Abu Dhabi.
I don’t think that the heat of the day will be a bigger problem for Rafa; after all he lives on a sunny island. He does sweat a lot but he has problems only in very humid conditions, not dry heat.
Most importantly, the conditions will help the ball bounce, which will cause all sorts of trouble to Denis’ BH. I doubt that the Canadian can consistently deal with Nadal’s arsenal for 3 sets out of 5.
So probably Rafa in 4 although I agree that any outcome is possible.
Berettini vs Monfils is almost too tough to call, but I feel that Gael won’t be able to produce the required consistency and he’ll lose a tough battle.
It’s true that the humidity is worse at night.
Seem to remember Shaps didn’t really have any symptoms with covid whereas we know rafa was really ill for several days.
I really really hope he doesn’t get a bout of qf nerves. If he is ok mentally he will probably get things done without it going 5. I certainly have a lot of difficulties imagining Cheryl’s pick coming true where he wins 7-5 in the fifth. I just don’t think he’s fit enough having been out so long.
amy,
I don’t think Rafa can go five sets. If he does it to get the win, that could compromise his chances going forward.
On ESPN PMac has predicted a Shapo win.
As far as PMac is concerned, it’s always been anyone but Rafa.
Yes, that is true. No surprise there.
Actually, that is incorrect. The data says Monfils is a decent level above Berrettini and has been delivering the required consistency. If Monfils loses this match, it wont be because he lacks consistency.
The trouble i, Monfils doesn’t always get it together despite his great serve and ground strokes and he is so unfit. He starts wilting after 2 hours on court.
Nobody here is God. We are just giving opinions. Everyone is on an equal footing.
For myself, I enjoy reading the different opinions here. I like Cristian’s posts. I think he makes some very good points.
I don’t mind disagreements unless it gets personal. Christian was attacked in a vicious way the other day. Anyone here who gives themselves airs or tries to attack or demean anyone, is doing a real disservice to this forum.
He’s a relentless troll and insinuates things indirectly and feeds off other people’s quality input and presents it as his own.
As you can see, I’m more than capable of forming my own judgement.
FYI,
On ESPN Brad Gilbert just said that Rafa asked for this to be a day match.
Rafa told Wilander on Eurosport that he prefers daytime.
Rafa breaks 3-1.
He has come out sharp. Serving very well.
I’d assume Rafa wants the AO day matches because of the spin, the ball really rips off the court more during the day. It’s interesting though, since you’d think he’d want to avoid the heat in general.
Right now it’s smooth sailing, Shapo just leaks too many errors and doesn’t apply pressure. Zverev would’ve been a much worse match-up here, but he got tight yet again because it was a GS.
I absolutely agree about Zverev getting tight again because it’s a slam. I think that’s his problem. He was winning until he got into a slam again. Then he played like crap.
DTL forehand return winner from Rafa.
The forehand is on fire. It’s a good thing!
Vamos Rafa!
Rafa wins the first set 6-3!
Shapo complaining about Rafa taking too much time to get out of his chair! Really Shapo? Is he going to go there? Just because he lost the first set.
Shapo is rattled.