Australian Open QF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Thiem

For just the second time in their careers, Rafael Nadal and Dominic Thiem will be squaring off on a surface other than clay.

Tennis fans can only hope it’s as good as their first hard-court encounter.

In the quarterfinals of the 2018 U.S. Open, Nadal outlasted Thiem 0-6, 6-4, 7-5, 6-7(4), 7-6(5). Now they will collide in the same stage of the 2020 Australian Open on Wednesday. Although it marks a rare hard-court contest, to say Nadal and Thiem are no strangers would be a gross understatement. This is their 14th meeting overall, with the Spaniard leading the head-to-head series 9-4. Nadal is 5-0 at the Austrian’s expense in Grand Slam situations, including 4-0 at the French Open following a 6-3, 5-7, 6-1, 6-1 triumph in last year’s final.

Like Nadal, Thiem is definitely at his best on clay–but he is showing signs of possibly becoming a future slam champion not only at Roland Garros but also at the others. From a surface standpoint, the Aussie should be the world No. 5’s second-best slam and he is finally putting together an appropriate run Down Under. Thiem is through to the quarterfinals in Melbourne for the first time with victories over Adrian Mannarino, Alex Bolt, Taylor Fritz, and Gael Monfils.

“He’s playing well,” Nadal assured following Thiem’s 6-2, 6-4, 6-4 fourth-round rout of Monfils. “I saw him play against Gael. He was playing a very high level the tennis. We know each other well. He’s a player that I like a lot–the way that he work, the way that he plays, and the way that he tries his best always.”

Nadal does the same, of course, and he had to be at his best in order to advance on Monday. Nick Kyrgios as usual came to play in that particular matchup and tested the world No. 1 throughout a 6-3, 3-6, 7-6(6), 7-6(4) nail-biter that lasted three hours and 38 minutes. Nadal preceded that result with much more routine defeats of Hugo Dellien, Federico Delbonis, and Pablo Carreno Busta.

Over the past five years, both Kyrgios and Thiem have learned the hard way that beating Nadal in a best-of-five scenario is a whole different beast than best-of-three. All four of Thiem’s wins have come in the latter form, with only one of the four going the three-set distance. In just about every extended battle, Nadal has enjoyed the upper hand–and it is not hard to figure out why. Although Thiem’s peak is world No. 1 kind of stuff (see the 2019 Nitto ATP Finals against Novak Djokovic as one example), his high-risk, high-reward style does not always withstand the demands of best-of-five tennis. Mentally, physically, and stylistically, Nadal is a five-set force.

The top seed’s greater margin for error on his shots and his superior experience toward the business end of majors should be the difference in what is likely to be an entertaining, high-quality affair.

Pick: Nadal in 5

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35 Comments on Australian Open QF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Thiem

  1. Yes,but since noone expects him to beat Djoko the pressure will be off. It doesn’t look likely but possible. Of course,they still have to get to the final.

  2. Rafa is playing way below his level. He deserves to lose the first set as Thiem plays gutsy tennis snd is more aggressive. So disappointed at Rafa…well, if he doesn’t raise his level he will lose this match easily…Thiem is playing well, but it’s Rafa who is helping him a lit with his lousy tennis and short balls…Rafa needs to up his level!!!

    Vamos Champ!

  3. Me? Ive stopped watching after be got broken serving for it. Im just truly fed up with Rafa when he plays so tentatively, losing set serving for it at this stage!! Unforgivable!!

  4. Yeah, it hurts to see him losing sets from the wining position…his nerves are his worst enemy…but it has to do with Dominik being aggressive when matters and Rafa turns into a defensive clay court mode…his serve then immediately lets him down as his major weakness in crucial moments…he isn’t beating an in form young talent with attitude like that.., hope Rafa improves from here and starts playing his best tennis..
    Vamos Champ!

    • I agree. Nadal isn’t playing badly so much as Thiem is playing great and forcing Rafa into shots he isn’t comfortable playing. Thiem now in the driver’s seat with a 2-0 lead.

      • Nah, Rafa is playing badly by his standard and Thiem is playing well throughout. Rafa was even serving for the first set but as usual turned tentative and started missing his first serves and then got broken. This was not an isolated case, Rafa these days used to lose serves while serving for sets or matches.

        Thiem of course is playing well, runs for all the shots putting pressure on Rafa; Thiem plays like a Djoko, getting every shot back with interest!

        Rafa’s head was shot when he played that dumb drop shot in the second set TB at 4-5 and so lost the point and then the set! Rafa will most probably loses in straight sets now, as he runs out of ideas on how to play against this Thiem.

        • If Rafa wasn’t playing well, he wouldn’t have forced an extremely good Thiem to two tie-breaks. Nadal is playing fine; Thiem is just a little bit better so far. It’s not over yet.

  5. Rafa can only hit CC BH so everyone playing against him is expecting the ball to come CC right back from him. It’s getting very predictable, no wonder Djoko could beat him all the time on the HCs since USO2013.

    • Exactly! Better let Thiem or Sasha deal with Djoko in the final. I believe they have better chances than Rafa, against Djoko.

      Rafa should take a break and works on his BH DTL, his serves and his ROS. He’s playing like crap in all these areas, hitting so many BH into the net!

  6. Honestly, being up a break in both sets and losing it is quite pathetic…Rafa must be angry at himself! I don’t see him wining any set today with this kind of performance but I also don’t see this Thiem beating Novak playing like this: Novak will not squander two breaks, he will easily serve the sets out…

      • I did not see Sasha playing here. Maybe he does, because Novak will eat this Thiem for dinner! Novak’s serve is huge to bail him out of trouble and his ROS will definitely put a pressure on Thiem who will not be able to stand so close to the baseline and dictate points like Rafa allowed him to do…also, Rafa never seem to capitalize on opponent’s second serve and we all know what Novak does with those always grateful for those opportunities…

    • You know, sometimes i forget y I fell in love with Rafa……..his fighting spirit!! Never lets off!! As much as he is so damn irritating at times its just remarkable that the higher the odds are against him the MORE he fights!!! But my heart just cyah take it!!!!

      cyah = colloquial for ‘can’t’ in St.Lucia, lol!

      • Exactly, Rafa is sometimes very irritating! This is a winnable match, when he was already serving for the first set, then lost it. He’s up a break in the second set then he had to lose it! If he’s just a bit more steady, he would have already won n straight sets, yet we are seeing that he’s about to lose the match!

        Oh, and that’s why I hate to see Rafa playing against Djoko in the final here, and in most HC finals.

  7. Been saying from the beginning that this match will be very tough for Rafa. He has missed too many chances to win and finds himself 1 game away from losing now.

    Not too sure I want to see him play 5 hours + here and get injured but I know he’ll give anything to get back into this match here.

    Thiem may get tight in the final game and Rafa WILL be aggressive. I give Rafa a 50-50 chance of breaking serve. Different story if Thiem can hit huge first serves..

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