Australian Open QF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Thiem

For just the second time in their careers, Rafael Nadal and Dominic Thiem will be squaring off on a surface other than clay.

Tennis fans can only hope it’s as good as their first hard-court encounter.

In the quarterfinals of the 2018 U.S. Open, Nadal outlasted Thiem 0-6, 6-4, 7-5, 6-7(4), 7-6(5). Now they will collide in the same stage of the 2020 Australian Open on Wednesday. Although it marks a rare hard-court contest, to say Nadal and Thiem are no strangers would be a gross understatement. This is their 14th meeting overall, with the Spaniard leading the head-to-head series 9-4. Nadal is 5-0 at the Austrian’s expense in Grand Slam situations, including 4-0 at the French Open following a 6-3, 5-7, 6-1, 6-1 triumph in last year’s final.

Like Nadal, Thiem is definitely at his best on clay–but he is showing signs of possibly becoming a future slam champion not only at Roland Garros but also at the others. From a surface standpoint, the Aussie should be the world No. 5’s second-best slam and he is finally putting together an appropriate run Down Under. Thiem is through to the quarterfinals in Melbourne for the first time with victories over Adrian Mannarino, Alex Bolt, Taylor Fritz, and Gael Monfils.

“He’s playing well,” Nadal assured following Thiem’s 6-2, 6-4, 6-4 fourth-round rout of Monfils. “I saw him play against Gael. He was playing a very high level the tennis. We know each other well. He’s a player that I like a lot–the way that he work, the way that he plays, and the way that he tries his best always.”

Nadal does the same, of course, and he had to be at his best in order to advance on Monday. Nick Kyrgios as usual came to play in that particular matchup and tested the world No. 1 throughout a 6-3, 3-6, 7-6(6), 7-6(4) nail-biter that lasted three hours and 38 minutes. Nadal preceded that result with much more routine defeats of Hugo Dellien, Federico Delbonis, and Pablo Carreno Busta.

Over the past five years, both Kyrgios and Thiem have learned the hard way that beating Nadal in a best-of-five scenario is a whole different beast than best-of-three. All four of Thiem’s wins have come in the latter form, with only one of the four going the three-set distance. In just about every extended battle, Nadal has enjoyed the upper hand–and it is not hard to figure out why. Although Thiem’s peak is world No. 1 kind of stuff (see the 2019 Nitto ATP Finals against Novak Djokovic as one example), his high-risk, high-reward style does not always withstand the demands of best-of-five tennis. Mentally, physically, and stylistically, Nadal is a five-set force.

The top seed’s greater margin for error on his shots and his superior experience toward the business end of majors should be the difference in what is likely to be an entertaining, high-quality affair.

Pick: Nadal in 5

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23 Comments on Australian Open QF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Thiem

  1. Congrats to Them for a job well done. Rafa, it was not your day today!! But you have nothing else to prove.

    I wish Theim good luck for the rest of the tourney. Rafa i know u will be back strong……take care and looking forward to seeing you at the French!! Vamos!!!

    • Well said Monalisa πŸ‘.

      My condolences to rafans πŸ˜‰πŸ™ƒ don’t worry Rafa will be back stronger and better πŸ™„πŸ€—πŸ˜‹

    • I agree with what others have said regarding Rafa playing DC and the stupid ATP cup. I have been very nervous about his playing so much and worried it would trigger the knee problems.
      Unfortunately Rafa is very patriotic so he will undoubtedly carry on playing these matches if he is able to. At close to 34 he needs to cut down his schedule and I thought it a very bad omen that he was so tired at the Atp cup that they decided not to play him for doubles. That was only a week before the AO!
      Rafa plays with more intensity and emotion than any other player and I don’t think he can afford to expend so much energy.The drift into passivity on court seems sometimes part of a sudden inability on his part to play with the intensity he needs. It’s not just the physical stuff which is more of a challenge as you get older but also the mental ie lapses in concentration and so on.

      • amy,

        I think you just said it perfectly! Brilliant analysis! I forgot how Rafa was so tired that he couldn’t play doubles at the ATP tournament. The decision to play DC bothered me a lot. At this point in his career being ready for the 2020 AO to win his 20th slam and get the double career slam, was infinitely more important.

        I also think that you made a great point about the tendency toward passivity coming from a lack of intensity because of overplaying. Rafa is intense in his matches and that is one of his great intangible qualities. If he does not have it, then he loses his aggressive play and the big advantage he has.

        Well said!
        πŸ˜πŸ‘

        • Thanks nny!
          I was actually partly remembering what my beloved chloro wrote in 2015: that Rafa relied a great deal on playing with maximum intensity and that part of his problem then was maybe that he simply couldn’t keep sustaining that emotional input.
          I wish chloro was still here with us…

      • I guess the mental and physical fatigue are related. Rafa seemed to make some wrong shot selections during the match as if running out of ideas. We rarely see him behaving like that – agitated, angry with himself, missing shots or hitting into the net so often etc and etc.

        It’s only when he played against Djoko that I got to see him behaving like that at times (when he’s clearly outplayed and running out of ideas). I guess he knew he was being outplayed and couldn’t think his way out, it’s just that he fought hard and not giving up that kept him in the match for so long.

        Thiem clearly played as well as he could whilst Rafa wasn’t playing badly but obviously he didn’t hit his best level during the match. To me, it’s more to do with Rafa himself – physically obviously as he has been playing too much tennis without proper off season. He couldn’t bring his DC level to ATP Cup and to the AO, and imo, his DC level of tennis > his 2020 tennis so far.

        It may be a blessing in disguise with him losing in the QF; at least he isn’t injured and can have some rest till late February (exhos during Feb and March aren’t that exhausting). For him, the important period within the season is the clay season, he has to be in tip top condition so that he could play his best tennis on clay and wins at the FO, esp with Thiem getting better and better on clay now.

        • Well I keep saying that Rafa is getting older and that this has to be factored into any analysis we make. I remember when Fed started to lose matches from winning positions, that commentators who were ex players said that concentration became more difficult as you got older. And we have seen with Fed over a long time his inexplicably playing bad having been great the match before. Fed often gets nervous playing younger players; youth is the predator and the hunted big 3 are going to find it more difficult because of age with the young hunters. It’s just a fact of evolution.
          Moya needs to work with Rafa getting back to what he wants Rafa to do ie increasingly play first strike tennis.
          One reason I said I thought Zverev might beat Dom is because of the hunter/ hunted paradigm. Dom is much more susceptible imo when he is the supposed fave against the hungry young player. We saw that at the wtf against Tsitsi when he kept shouting at himself.

      • Maybe it’s “unfortunate” that Rafa is a patriot and a born team player who will always put others ahead of himself, but that’s one of the things I like best about him. When one of the media asked Rafa if he’d trade one of his 12 RG trophies for one of the other slams, he said no. Why? Because, he said, his record of 12 Roland Garros championships would not be broken in his lifetime.

        GOAThood is a temporary thing as is a record of 20 slams, viewed as untouchable a few years back. Now there’s every likelihood that both Rafa and Novak will reach that. But Rafa’s clay records ARE untouchable – add to that his many hard court achievements, not to mention all his Davis Cups and Olympic medals – and he is, of course, one of the great legends of sport, now and forever.

  2. Sorry but I do not agree. Nobody is criticizing Rafa for being a patriot and loving hus country, I love my country and that is why it is so upsetting to see a criminal monster like Trump destroying it. Please do not imply that either I or anyone else here disrespects Rafa’s love for his country.

    The simple reality is that Rafa cannot do it all at this point in his career. He has given so much of himself to DC. There comes a time when he can’t do it all. Or do we want to see him inured again due to overplaying.

    I think winning slams is the most important thing now for Rafa. He has a finite amount of time to play. It won’t go on forever. For myself I would have preferred that he take time off after the WTF. I wanted to see fresh and ready to try and win the AO.

    GOATHood is not temporary! Just look at Rod Laver! He has records that still stand. Greatness in a sport lasts forever. There may be other greats who come along, but that cannot take away the greatness that came before.

    Rafa has his place in the history of this sport. But I want to see him achieve as much as he can before he decides to hang up his racket.

    • Rafa needs to carefully pick the tournaments he wants to play and not try to play all tournaments as he gets older he needs some break between tournaments.

      On a different topic It’s disgusting humans like you and the Demonrat party that is destroying America, brainless retard.

    • Quote of the day “I always do” πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚ Liar liar pants on fire πŸ”₯πŸ”₯πŸ”₯.

      Mrs Pinocchio I wish you ignored me but sadly you can’t, the Truth hurts but there is nothing i can do about it, the Truth also delivers and sets Fools free from deception I sincerely hope you see it.

    • amy,

      Thanks, I got this. He said some truly horrible things to me not too long ago and I ignored it.

      Anyone who could support the Orange Menace, is not someone I would want to have anything to do with at all.

      I just hope we can survive until this pseudo-fascist creep is sent packing. Once Trump loses, then they can go after him and maybe finally put him in jail where he belongs with the rest of his buddies.

      I will reserve any more discussion of this in the non-tennis thread.

      You give me strength and renew my faith in humanity!
      😘

      • amy,

        It really doesn’t go away. You think that you’re okay and then you are not. In your case you got to know him. We usually don’t get to meet each other. So he was a real friend.

        He went back to the old forum. He was one of the regulars. He always posted thoughtful, analytical, well reasoned comments. He was very intelligent and a student of the sport.

        I still think about him when we are having some great discussions. You hang in there and try to remember the good times. I am always here for you. 😍πŸ˜₯

        • Thanks for your generous support nny! It is characteristic of you and I love you for it. I hope I can be there for you if you need me.
          😘

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