For just the second time in their careers, Rafael Nadal and Dominic Thiem will be squaring off on a surface other than clay.
Tennis fans can only hope it’s as good as their first hard-court encounter.
In the quarterfinals of the 2018 U.S. Open, Nadal outlasted Thiem 0-6, 6-4, 7-5, 6-7(4), 7-6(5). Now they will collide in the same stage of the 2020 Australian Open on Wednesday. Although it marks a rare hard-court contest, to say Nadal and Thiem are no strangers would be a gross understatement. This is their 14th meeting overall, with the Spaniard leading the head-to-head series 9-4. Nadal is 5-0 at the Austrian’s expense in Grand Slam situations, including 4-0 at the French Open following a 6-3, 5-7, 6-1, 6-1 triumph in last year’s final.
Like Nadal, Thiem is definitely at his best on clay–but he is showing signs of possibly becoming a future slam champion not only at Roland Garros but also at the others. From a surface standpoint, the Aussie should be the world No. 5’s second-best slam and he is finally putting together an appropriate run Down Under. Thiem is through to the quarterfinals in Melbourne for the first time with victories over Adrian Mannarino, Alex Bolt, Taylor Fritz, and Gael Monfils.
“He’s playing well,” Nadal assured following Thiem’s 6-2, 6-4, 6-4 fourth-round rout of Monfils. “I saw him play against Gael. He was playing a very high level the tennis. We know each other well. He’s a player that I like a lot–the way that he work, the way that he plays, and the way that he tries his best always.”
Nadal does the same, of course, and he had to be at his best in order to advance on Monday. Nick Kyrgios as usual came to play in that particular matchup and tested the world No. 1 throughout a 6-3, 3-6, 7-6(6), 7-6(4) nail-biter that lasted three hours and 38 minutes. Nadal preceded that result with much more routine defeats of Hugo Dellien, Federico Delbonis, and Pablo Carreno Busta.
Over the past five years, both Kyrgios and Thiem have learned the hard way that beating Nadal in a best-of-five scenario is a whole different beast than best-of-three. All four of Thiem’s wins have come in the latter form, with only one of the four going the three-set distance. In just about every extended battle, Nadal has enjoyed the upper hand–and it is not hard to figure out why. Although Thiem’s peak is world No. 1 kind of stuff (see the 2019 Nitto ATP Finals against Novak Djokovic as one example), his high-risk, high-reward style does not always withstand the demands of best-of-five tennis. Mentally, physically, and stylistically, Nadal is a five-set force.
The top seed’s greater margin for error on his shots and his superior experience toward the business end of majors should be the difference in what is likely to be an entertaining, high-quality affair.
Pick: Nadal in 5
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WWW?
Thiem playing well….but not well enough….rafa in 4.
Too tough to call. I hope rafa wins ..but a 5 setter with thiem can be brutal for rafa
Cheryl..your pick ?
Rafa in tight 4 sets.
Cheryl…your pick please ?
Rafa, u GOT this!!!!
Vamos!!!!!
Insyaallah Rafa in 4!…Vamos Rafa!…Love u!!….Woohoo!!
It seems quite unlikely that Nadal starts playing tomorrow as bad as he started at USO 2018 against Thiem. Quite interestingly, that was their first and only encounter outside clay so perhaps Rafa did not know what to expect back then.
I am not convinced of Thiem’s form, he seemed to struggle in the first week and an emphatic victory against Monfils is hardly a reliable indicator. Rafa should win without being pushed to the limit if he plays at least as good as he did against Kyrgios.
Many people said, and I agree, that not playing on RLA at night so far will prove to be a disadvantage for Dominic. Rafa should capitalize on that and grab the first set. From there on it will probably be an uphill battle for Thiem. It’s also likely that the Austrian will take a set where he finds the lines with every shot.
Rafa’s knee was shot at the USO 2018 to the extent that he retired during the SF against Delpo.
For once I don’t mind Rafa losing this one, as the thought of Rafa having to face Djoko in the final and most likely gets hammered by Djoko there, makes me not wishing for Rafa to get there. Rafa’s draw is beyond horrible – Kyrgios, Thiem, Sasha/Stan and then with one less day of rest than Djoko, and meeting Djoko in the final. Moreover, I expect an easy win by Djoko in the SF over Fed, a beat down likely, so Djoko will be well rested and ready for the final.
I hope Stan beats Sasha in the other quarter and Stan to meet and beat Djoko in the final! It’s only Stan now who has the best chance against Djoko, no one else left in the draw could do it; I give Thiem a slim chance, Sasha maybe. Rafa, because of his brutal draw and his mental demon seeing Djoko across the net, will have little chances of beating Djoko.
C’mon lucky .you want Rafa to drop 840 points by losing this? Why ? It’s ok if he loses to djoko in final but not ok to lose 840 pts to avoid djoko ..he may then drop to 3 n may have hard draws in having to beat both back to back..atleast if he n djoko are 1 n 2..they face only in final
Sanju, dropping 840 points, Rafa still will be in top two. There’s no way Fed or whoever is going to catch Rafa.
Fed has many points to defend from Dubai to Miami and I doubt he can defend all those, so Rafa is safe at no. 2 at least.
Djoko is the hot favorite to win this AO and retains his points, and may gain points at IW and Miami, but come the clay season and Wimbledon, he’ll have many points to defend.
Rafa OTOH, can gain points at the clay events if he does better than his 2019. Rafa will most likely regain the no. 1 ranking during the year.
I doubt anyone else could challenge the top two positions.
Fed has predicted there will be three no 1s this season .who is he tipping to be third
Thiem?
I think Rafa will win one slam this year (FO), Djoko two (AO and Wimbledon). As the big three are involved in Olympics this year, the USO may be won by a non big three and I think Thiem has the best chance of winning it.
If Thiem gathers many points at AO, IW or Miami (slow HCs) and continues to do well on clay plus winning the USO, he may have a chance to become world no. 1 at some point during the year.
Even if Djoko wins, he can’t destroy Fed as many would enjoy.
Fed’s value is simply too high to get hammered by Dj.
Assuming he’s not referring to himself lol. I think Thiem makes the most logical sense although I don’t see it happening.
Unbelievable, Lucky. You’ve been downgraded Rafas chances completely against Djoko that Im starting to believe Rafa will win this whole thing . Its called reverse jinxing , it does work!
What reverse jinxing? I don’t believe in jinxing! This is call being realistic! If it’s at the FO, even with a draw like this, I’ll say Rafa will be the winner, but not here at the AO, Rafa’s worst slam!
Rafa has been feeling nervous even when he’s in a winning position against Kyrgios, hence he messed it up when serving for the match at 5-4 in the fourth set and then has to spend more time and energy to win the match. Just imagine he has to do it against Thiem, then Stan or Sasha and finally against Djoko, how energy draining that will be, physically and mentally! He’ll be even more nervous in each round.
Whilst Djoko looked so calm and relaxed playing each round, and a tired Fed in the SF won’t pose much challenge to Djoko; and, Djoko has two days of rest before the final!
All these work against Rafa should he get to the final, would I be confident that Rafa would win? Nope, from me. I just hope Rafa doesn’t get injured along the way, and gets out of AO in one piece, whether he loses or incredibly wins the title here.
I completely agree with Lucky!
Even if Rafa beats whoever to reach the final to meet Djoko, chances are he’ll be physically at a disadvantage and would either:
1) plays defensively from the get go (his default game when he’s tired or feeling less confident) and then loses the first set at least, then fights hard to win the second, and then runs out of steam (as the second set takes a lot out of him) and then loses the third and the fourth set (something similar to USO2011); or
2) he plays aggressively for two sets maximum, then Djoko fights back to push it to five sets and Rafa losing steam to lose in five sets.
Oh that’s my take if Rafa reaches the final vs Djoko.
Yes,but since noone expects him to beat Djoko the pressure will be off. It doesn’t look likely but possible. Of course,they still have to get to the final.
I don’t know why you think Stan would have any chance against Novak. Yeah, he’s done it before. Why not Thiem? He’s done it recently.
Thiem has only done it on clay at the slams.
C’mon Thiem, TIRE those knees properly. 5 sets sounds fun.
Oh for gl’s sake, come on Djoko, hammer Fed in the SF!
And Rafa, win or loss, come out of AO in one piece and no injury please, so as to disappoint gl!
Nadal is vulnerable and Theim has has shown marginal improvement over time on hardcourts with his win at IW last year and now a semi-final of a major. Any gap on hardcourts that existed prior to this match has now greatly diminished. Sometimes circumstance and a draw that builds steady confidence can be all the difference between a forgettable and memorable experience.
Theim in 4 and a chance to win the title.
Id like to see a repeat of the Zverev-Nadal match of 2017. Another five set classic, different winner though. I cant see Stan beating Rafa .
Actually to see Zverev winning his first Slam would be great .
Should he get through Zverev, I would ultimately pick Rafa or Novak to beat him. However, people should certainly not sleep on Stan. I know he’s lost some of his luster the last few years, but this is the PERFECT hard court conditions for Stan, imo. Stan is an amazing slower court guy, and an average quicker court guy. Stan is a guy where if he has that little bit of extra time to really square up and bludgeon his shots, he can be so dangerous. If it turns out that heavy topspin is not as rewarded on this new court, that could certainly help him if facing Rafa. Again, I would still pick Rafa to take that match if they play, but there’s no question that Stan would have waaay more of a chance than he did at RG. And as for a potential Stan-Novak matchup? I think the only real argument for why Novak should be the clear favorite there is because Stan isn’t quite as good as he was a few years ago. Novak’s level is not as relevant to me when it comes to facing Stan, as we saw Stan beat a fully prime Novak more than once at the majors. In 2015, Novak was as unbeatable as he ever has been, yet Stan still beat him soundly. Not to mention we saw Stan beat Novak, at this very tournament, in very similar conditions, when Novak was the 3-time defending champ. Ultimately, I just don’t really believe that Stan is still quite capable enough of being the old world-beater Stan, but it would be absolutely foolish to write him off. Let’s be real- all 3 of the major titles he won, he wasn’t remotely on anyone’s radar. Has he been on anyone’s radar recently? Nope.
I think I know why Stan poses such a problem for Djoko – he’s the only one who can hit with depth and precision both CC and DTL from both wings, and he’s also able to change direction quite easily. Also, he’s fit enough and consistent enough to go toe to toe with Djoko in all directions and even overpowers Djoko! Delpo and Sasha, both have solid FH and BH too but they’re not able to change direction the way Stan could, at least not that easily.
Rafa’s problem is that his FH topspin sometimes can land short, giving Djoko the chance to move forward to take the ball early. His BHDTL isn’t that good hence he’s not able to change direction of his shots the way Stan or Djoko could.
Fed during his heydays I feel could match this Djoko but now that he’s so ‘old’ he tends to be late when running to cover his FH, so he couldn’t match Djoko shot for shot, at least not that consistently or when the point goes longer and longer.
Fed and Stan could handle Stan at the slams because both use their varieties against Stan, and Rafa with his topspin lefty FH, could still trouble Stan’s SHBH; whilst Fed rushes Stan and takes time away from Stan by moving to the net so often.
Correction:’ Fed and Rafa’ could handle Stan….
I would pick Rafa to beat Stan if they meet. He’s got the game to trouble Stan, even when Stan is playing very well. I give Stan a great chance against Novak, better than I give Rafa. I’m less sure about Rafa v Thiem – I think this one’s a toss up, maybe a slight edge to Rafa for his experience and will.
Stan in God-mode demolishes Zverev in the first set, 6-1. If he plays like this, I don’t think anyone can beat him here. Alex is going to have to up his game considerably, or Stan come down (quite likely), otherwise this will be over very quickly.
They showed highlights of Stan’s 2015 RG win against Djoko and he was crushing winners all over the place.Djoko simply had no answer .I honestly believe if he plays like that,noone will handle it.
Unfortunately I have to watch all AO matches on catch-up so avoid all results.Really enjoyed Feds win.
Like everyone else, I think Rafa-Thiem will be close. Every year, I think: this is the year Thiem finally overtakes Nadal at slams. Obviously, that will be easier to do on HC than clay. But I’ve reached the point where I just am not going to believe it until it actually happens. Until then, Nadal in 5.
What a start to the match. Thiem putting a bit of pressure on Rafa’s serve but can’t convert a BP. Rafa yet to win a point on Thiem’s serve.
Ah, as long as Rafa holds his serve its good. Theim will soon come down to earth!!!
Wow. Rafa breaks but Thiem breaks right back with some unbelievable shots. Rafa leads 5-4, on serve. At this rate, the match is going to go over 4 hours.
This guy is tougher than Kyrgios. A more organized and efficient version I would say.
Rafa and his nerves!! Unbelievable!!
As usual, and as expected, Rafa loses his serve while serving for the set. He will have himself to blame for keep making this type of silly mistakes, and then loses the set!
I sensed that this matches could easily go to 3 hrs & half @ 4 hrs….and to think it’s only quarter!….😭