Australian Open SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Tsitsipas

For the most part, Rafael Nadal has set the NextGen charge back 100 years.

Well, maybe not that long; but the Spaniard has certainly played his part among the old guard in putting a real dent in the youngsters’ metal. Nadal will look to inflict more damage when he goes up against Stefanos Tsitsipas in the semifinals of the Australian Open on Thursday night.

Putting any concerns about injuries or rust to rest, Nadal has run roughshod through the draw so far this fortnight–including at the expense of up-and-comers Alex de Minaur and Frances Tiafoe. The 2009 champion also made straight-set mincemeat out of veterans James Duckworth, Matthew Ebden, and Tomas Berdych. Nadal, who is quite obviously more well-rested than rusty on the heels of his most recent layoff, has been pushed to only one tiebreaker by Berdych. And it should be noted that the first two sets of that contest were 6-0 and 6-1. The world No. 2 surrendered only 16 total games in his two matches against de Minaur (seven) and Tiafoe (nine).

Tsitsipas knows the feeling. He is 0-2 lifetime against Nadal with two straight-set losses, and three of their four sets have been 6-2 or worse.

“(It) is not like don’t give them confidence or not,” Nadal responded when asked about his dominance of the NextGen. “I know they are good. I know they will be fighting for the most important things during the next couple of years…. I just take it like a difficult match against players that they have a lot of energy. That’s all. (It) is another match…. When you face these young players, they are in permanent improvement. [Tsitsipas is] with confidence; he won a lot of good matches. Will be a tough one.”

Tsitsipas has been the sensation of this tournament, surviving tough four-setters against Matteo Berrettini, Viktor Troicki, and Nikoloz Basilashvili before doing the same–in much grander fashion–against Roger Federer with a 6-7(11), 7-6(3), 7-5, 7-6(5) upset on Saturday night. The 20-year-old Greek followed up the biggest win of his career by beating Roberto Bautista Agut, who was also running low on emotional and physical energy, via a 7-5, 4-6, 6-4, 7-6(2) quarterfinal scoreline.

“It almost feels like a fairytale,” Tsitsipas said. “I’m living a dream–living what I worked so hard for. I told people before that reaching Grand Slam semis was my goal. When I was answering that question I thought I was crazy. But no, it’s real. It happened.”

The world No. 15 will have to rearrange his goals in a hurry, because Nadal will pounce on any sort of satisfaction or complacency. Happy to be in the quarters, Tiafoe came out flat against Nadal, dropped serve right away, and never got into the match en route to a 6-3, 6-4, 6-2 destruction. Tsitsipas cannot afford a similarly slow start.

Given the enormity of the stage and their respective paths through the event, this should once again be one-way traffic for the 17-time major winner.

Pick: Nadal in 3

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36 Comments on Australian Open SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Tsitsipas

  1. This why I like Rafa, he takes his matches seriously some might say too serious.

    Well done Rafa but Djokovic might win the trophy 🏆.

  2. Yay so happy for Rafa, went to water aerobics class for an hour, then came back but didnt expect Rafa to be two sets up, and leading two love in the third, so happy to see him been aggressive, and playing so well whatever happens in the final ….

  3. One thing Ive to say, ie, whether it is a tough match or an easy match, Rafa can simply make it looks so interesting by hitting those amazing shots time and again.

  4. I’m now waiting to see how Pouille plays against Djoko. They’ve never met before, so the first set should be interesting.

    If Pouille plays like the way he played against Raonic, then maybe he could make a match of it. Djoko will just get every ball back and frustrates his opponent, so Pouille has to be aggressive and be patient at the same time.

    • Amélie Mauresmo seems to be pointing Pouille in the right direction. He played a very intelligent, patient match against Raonic not his usual ball bashing game. They should come up with a plan to counter Djokovic’s style.

      • Most important thing for Pouille – don’t fall into the same old trap that many of Djoko’s opponents fall into, ie being dragged into endless baseline war with Djoko, no one can beat Djoko from the baseline, not even Rafa, perhaps only a Stan at his best.

        Pouille can play with varieties, Fed is his idol so he tries to play like him. I feel he really needs to play like Fed or Tsitsipas to have a chance to beat Djoko. An old Fed in 2014/2015 could push Djoko to the limit and beat him a few times, I don’t think the Djoko now is better than his 2014/2015 self.

        Pouille is of course no Fed, but he’s young and as long as he can hang in there with Djoko, comes forward to attack and plays with varieties to keep Djoko guessing, he may have his chances to beat Djoko. If he plays a baseline game, then sayonara good bye to him.

  5. VAMOS RAFAAAAAA!!!!! Very well done, champ! Now, I gotta go watch it. 🙂 Match time of 2:30 am is about as bad as it gets for me but time was I would have gotten up for it.

  6. Even tho Rafa still not playing in the final yet…but i think this is the most perfect,almost flawless,amazing tennis i’ve ever seen Rafa play on HC in my whole life!…Oh God!….i really love what i saw!….This new Rafa will rock the RLA this sunday!…Wooohoòoo!!

    Donno bout u guys…but i have a good feelings about this!…Let’s hope Rafa will be blessed with a good health for the final…Vamos Rafa!!

  7. I think Rafa is ready for Djoker. He is fresh and going for his shots. Today he volleyed well as well. He gets two days off. So, he is prepared for a grind against Djoker as he is very fresh.

    I think Djoker will win his match easily as well as he would like to finish the match quick as well. Its going to be a cracker of a final , Djoker can lift his game significantly, interesting to see how Djoker returns Rafa’s changed serve. Very interesting match if it happens as it might decide wo goes on to become the GOAT.

    AndyRoddick said Rafa versus Fed in AO 2017 could end up a very important match in the history, I believe this final could well be a more significant encounter.

    • I think Tsitsi is in a different place from the others. In a way this was a bigger shock because he’d gotten a couple of previous beatdowns from Rafa and really thought he’d improved and figured Rafa out, at least on hardcourt. Instead he got cold water in his face and a glimpse of how far he has yet to go. And a good look at how far Rafa, at 32, has come! What Tsitsi should take from this match is: you’re never done, you never stop learning, you never stop competing and you never, ever give up.

      • Exactly, that’s what Rafa said when told about Tsitsipas was feeling very down after the beat down. Rafa said he himself had faced many losses and feeling upset too but he knew that’s sport – every week there’s only one winner and so the rest all lost their matches.

        Tsitsipas has to get used to losing and sometimes suffering beatdowns along the way. After all he suffered at the hands of an ATG, not any Tom Dick or Harry! ATGs do suffer beatdowns too during their careers.

  8. Hello everybody!
    I haven’t commented for a long time for various reasons, but Rafa’s absolutely incredible and totally unexpected run into another AO final merits that I come out of retirement for a bit. Congrats to all rafafans☺
    I was extremely busy with various projects, which is always a good thing. But I was also more than a bit bummed out by the state of affairs in mens’ tennis. For rafafans in particular there wasn’t much to be cheerful about ever since he had to retire in the US Open semis against Delpo. Also, why this might seem very unfair and subjective, it is what it is: I’m not at all a Djoker fan, and while I objectively totally admire his incredible resurgence, I am less than happy about it. I had really hoped that his incredible dominance around 2016 was a thing of the past. It remains to be seen if he can fully re-establish his suffocating dominance. Maybe not, since he also aged a bit since then and seems to be slightly more vulnerable. But considering that the young and not so young guns – although they are knocking successfully at the doors more frequently – still are not able to fully and consistently develop into top dogs, a new Djoker dominance is a real possibility – and personally I’m not looking forward to it. Especially since the dominance of the Big Four is now definitely a thing of the past. Murray, has retired, and I really believe that age has finally caught up with Roger. He may be able to do a thing or two on grass, but I would be very surprised if he wins many more big trophies. A graceful retirement it probably not too far away. This development was of course to be expected, and at his age this is hardly surprising. What was surprising, is, that he was able at all to be so wildly successful in the past two years. He has probably had the best ever late-age career. Only Rafa and the Djoker may be in a position to come near a somewhat similar late-age success.
    Anyway, this means that a resurgent Djoker has very little stable competition right now. It remains to be seen if Rafa can provide the much needed challenge, although so far he has been hands down the best player at the AO. And while his draw wasn’t extremely tricky (the Djoker’s draw turned out to be fairly easy,too, since all serious challengers on his side, like Zverev and Raonic, faltered), I supect that Rafa would’ve beaten anyone across the other side of the net. He was that strong. But the Djoker is a different animal altogether. I suspect that to a certain degree he is still a little bit in Rafa’s head, and the latest heart breaking loss at least year’s Wimby has certainly not helped. It may Well have ruined Rafa’s last great chance to win a third Wimby trophy. I really think, he would’ve handled Anderson.
    I fully expect Rafole to meet on Sunday, and that will be another very crucial encounter. Many things seem to be on Rafa’s side this time around. He is most certainly not overplayed and in an incredible form, he hardly spent any time oncourt. His service and his overall hardcourt game seems to be much improved, and from what we have seen, the Djoker doesn’t seem to be in a totally stellar form atm. And yet – I’m extremely wary. The Djoker has given Rafa so many losses in matches which Rafa probably could’ve won – it will hurt Rafa incredibly, if the Djoker will again ruin one of Rafa’s long held ambitions: to win a double career slam. IMO Rafa has more to lose than the Djoker should they really meet in the final. And so far Rafa hasn’t been tested at all during this year’s AO. This might not be an altogether good thing, and he might be slightly undercooked. Against all other players that might not be a problem since he’s so experienced and a great fighter and tactician. But as I said – the Djoker is different than all other opponents when he plays Rafa.
    But whoever will lift the trophy on Sunday – Rafa has exceeded all expectations already and has mounted the umpteen’s successful comeback in his unique career. I’m in total awe that he is able to do it again and again! Let’s hope that his body, which has been his worst opponent during his career, will hold together for a while!
    And congrats of course to all Djoker fans here. My personal attitude towards the Djoker is totally subjective. We are all tennis fans after all.

    • littlefoot,

      Great post! You have been missed! You said so much of what I am thinking and feeling. Like you read my mind! I also am not happy about Novak’s resurgence. I do think Rafa would have won his third Wimbledon if not for that tough loss to Novak on the semis. I respect what he has done, but am not a fan. I do. It want to see him dominating again and with Andy Murrau retiring and Fed looking like he is near the end of the road, Rafa is the only other top player remaining. I am always very nervous about Rafa playing Novak. He may be a little on Rafa’s head. I do not want him to suffer another tough loss at his hands.

      Watching the match now, Rafa is playing some of the best tennis I have seen from him. So I do like his chances this time.

      My personal attitude toward Novak is not meant to disrespect him or his fans.

  9. It took me literally hours to pluck up the courage to come here and find out the score! I was practically sick with nerves. But it’s testimony to how much I love and respect you guys that I came here first!!
    Vamos Rafa and Tenngrand!!👑👑💪💪🐂🐂💜💜

    • amy,

      Hugs to you, too! Also to Mira! My recording screwed up and when I woke up at 6:30 am o realized that most of it did not record. But I saw that he won. Losing only six games! Now they are replaying it on the tennis channel. Rafa looks like a man on a mission!

      I am over the moon! Rafa gets to play for the double career slam again! I was SO nervous for this match!

      😍😀🥳

      • Me too nny!! I was literally sick with nerves.
        Major congrats should go to Carlos and how he has got Rafa playing! And of course Vamos to our darling amazing Rafa!!☺

        • amy,

          I was afraid to turn on the tv and check the score! I tried to stay up, but I am too old to do it anymore at these god awful hours.

          Then I saw that my recording messed up. But I did see that he won and when I heard he only lost six games, I became very emotional.

          I went back to sleep knowing that Rafa will get another chance at history. I am glad that the tennis channel is replaying the match now. Rafa is playing like a God!

          It’s so great to be here with you and other long suffering Rafa fans to celebrate!

          Tsitsipas got a reality check and now knows that he has more work to do.
          🤗💪🤙💝

          • Yeah nny! I was so nervous I could scarcely bear to see the score! Great to share these wonderful moments with you!💖💖💖

          • Hugs group to amy & Nny!!….Wooohooo!!…

            God!…yesterday was sooooòooo AWESOME!!…Like u guys,i’m so very very very happy to watch Rafa sailed magnificently to the final….without dropping a set!!…Can u believe it guys????At AO??Where everythings always turned painful….for him & for us!…Oh my God!…Tho..be still my heart!….Keep colm!…Don’t be 2 xcited!..It’s not over yet!…

            But,gotta admit..this is the 1st time when i don’t feel so scared when Rafa were to face Novak…And i think Rafa too will be very confident going on court this time knowing he has something different to challenge Novak…bsides he defeated Nole on HC b4 at USO10,USO13,Montreal13…so,can’t wait for their clash….Insyaallah the result will be different this time around….Vamos Rafa!!

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