Australian Open SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Tsitsipas

For the most part, Rafael Nadal has set the NextGen charge back 100 years.

Well, maybe not that long; but the Spaniard has certainly played his part among the old guard in putting a real dent in the youngsters’ metal. Nadal will look to inflict more damage when he goes up against Stefanos Tsitsipas in the semifinals of the Australian Open on Thursday night.

Putting any concerns about injuries or rust to rest, Nadal has run roughshod through the draw so far this fortnight–including at the expense of up-and-comers Alex de Minaur and Frances Tiafoe. The 2009 champion also made straight-set mincemeat out of veterans James Duckworth, Matthew Ebden, and Tomas Berdych. Nadal, who is quite obviously more well-rested than rusty on the heels of his most recent layoff, has been pushed to only one tiebreaker by Berdych. And it should be noted that the first two sets of that contest were 6-0 and 6-1. The world No. 2 surrendered only 16 total games in his two matches against de Minaur (seven) and Tiafoe (nine).

Tsitsipas knows the feeling. He is 0-2 lifetime against Nadal with two straight-set losses, and three of their four sets have been 6-2 or worse.

“(It) is not like don’t give them confidence or not,” Nadal responded when asked about his dominance of the NextGen. “I know they are good. I know they will be fighting for the most important things during the next couple of years…. I just take it like a difficult match against players that they have a lot of energy. That’s all. (It) is another match…. When you face these young players, they are in permanent improvement. [Tsitsipas is] with confidence; he won a lot of good matches. Will be a tough one.”

Tsitsipas has been the sensation of this tournament, surviving tough four-setters against Matteo Berrettini, Viktor Troicki, and Nikoloz Basilashvili before doing the same–in much grander fashion–against Roger Federer with a 6-7(11), 7-6(3), 7-5, 7-6(5) upset on Saturday night. The 20-year-old Greek followed up the biggest win of his career by beating Roberto Bautista Agut, who was also running low on emotional and physical energy, via a 7-5, 4-6, 6-4, 7-6(2) quarterfinal scoreline.

“It almost feels like a fairytale,” Tsitsipas said. “I’m living a dream–living what I worked so hard for. I told people before that reaching Grand Slam semis was my goal. When I was answering that question I thought I was crazy. But no, it’s real. It happened.”

The world No. 15 will have to rearrange his goals in a hurry, because Nadal will pounce on any sort of satisfaction or complacency. Happy to be in the quarters, Tiafoe came out flat against Nadal, dropped serve right away, and never got into the match en route to a 6-3, 6-4, 6-2 destruction. Tsitsipas cannot afford a similarly slow start.

Given the enormity of the stage and their respective paths through the event, this should once again be one-way traffic for the 17-time major winner.

Pick: Nadal in 3

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5 Comments on Australian Open SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Tsitsipas

  1. By the way, I was very sorry that Tsitsi was one of Rafa’s victims. I really like the guy and only wish bin the very best. He may not be quite as talented as Zverev, but I like his personality very much. Although I’m German I never liked Zverev a lot. He is still young and might mature into a more rounded personality, but so far he still comes across as an entitled and somewhat spoiled brat. I’m sure, though, that Lendl won’t encourage these tendenciesand will try to develop his fighting spirit. I really wonder when Zverev will be finally able to make his mark at the slams. He’s too talented for not winning a slam eventually. Heck, he could’ve won the AO this year – or could’ve at least reached the final, where he probably would’ve lost against Rafa! Zverev reminds me a bit of a certain player long ago called Roger Federer, who also took his sweet time until he became successful at the slams☺
    Anyway, Tsitsi became very quickly one of my favorite young guns. And he seems to be a quick learner and an already very mature personality. Maybe, he profitted from not having been exposed to all the early premature hype – unlike Zverev who has been declared the future no. 1 player like forever. Until he broke onto the scene last year Tsitsi flew a bit unser the radar and that may have been a good thing!

    • Nah, Tsitsipas is many times more talented than Zverev! Zverev’s game is more one dimensional; it’s surprising to me that he used to play doubles with his Brother Mischa and yet he doesn’t have good hands at the net.

      Zverev just serves big and hit hard from the baseline, doesn’t have Tsitsipas’ deft touches or volleying skills, doesn’t move as well as Tsitsipas, and doesn’t have Tsitisipas good instinct on how and when to approach the net.

      Tsitsipas plays like Fed, his game is varied enough that allows him many options he could employ, it’s just that he’s lacking in experience, big match experience but he’s learning fast. He just ran into a Rafa who happened to be on a Mission and could do nothing wrong; it’s a learning experience for him.

      • Agree lucky about him having a good game similar to Fed, but less experienced, which is normal. I think Roger would have lost to Nadal, but made it more difficult than Stefanos. And that is due to experience. I would also add tiredness, Tsitsi played so many more sets than Rafa. Let’s not forget.

        • Eugene, I agree. Rafa would probably have won against Roger, too, today. But it would have been more difficult.
          As a rafafan I regret a bit that Rafa didn’t have the opportunity to prove himself against Roger. It would have been nice, if he could’ve broken the recent string of consecutive losses against Fed. But this is a minor detail in their respective careers and won’t change the overall picture. And Rafa may get a shot at Fed later this season – if both of them stay healthy.

      • Interesting assessment, Lucky. I’m not saying you are wrong, but I guess most experts would disagree. Unlike Zverev, who has been declared the future no.1 for the last few years, nobody has engaged in such hyperbole in connection with Tsitsipas – yet. It will be very interesting to see how both players will fare this season. Zverev is of course already extremely successful in best-of-three format. If I remember the statistics correctly, he may have even been slightly more successful in 2018 than Novak, Rafa and Roger – if we substract the slams.
        Whatever – Titsi is definitely stronger than Zverev in the mental department. And he seems to have a high tennis IQ, as his steep learning curve demonstrates. This didn’t help him a lot against Rafa today. But Tsitsipas is here to stay. He’s very good already, and he will get better. As to Zverev – Lendl will try to improve his oncourt mentality. We will see how success he will be. As I said before, Fed only started to be really successful when he had turned 22. We have said this for a few years now after every early slam Exit, but it is still true that Zverev is young and that the slam success may come eventually.

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