Australian Open SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Tsitsipas

For the most part, Rafael Nadal has set the NextGen charge back 100 years.

Well, maybe not that long; but the Spaniard has certainly played his part among the old guard in putting a real dent in the youngsters’ metal. Nadal will look to inflict more damage when he goes up against Stefanos Tsitsipas in the semifinals of the Australian Open on Thursday night.

Putting any concerns about injuries or rust to rest, Nadal has run roughshod through the draw so far this fortnight–including at the expense of up-and-comers Alex de Minaur and Frances Tiafoe. The 2009 champion also made straight-set mincemeat out of veterans James Duckworth, Matthew Ebden, and Tomas Berdych. Nadal, who is quite obviously more well-rested than rusty on the heels of his most recent layoff, has been pushed to only one tiebreaker by Berdych. And it should be noted that the first two sets of that contest were 6-0 and 6-1. The world No. 2 surrendered only 16 total games in his two matches against de Minaur (seven) and Tiafoe (nine).

Tsitsipas knows the feeling. He is 0-2 lifetime against Nadal with two straight-set losses, and three of their four sets have been 6-2 or worse.

“(It) is not like don’t give them confidence or not,” Nadal responded when asked about his dominance of the NextGen. “I know they are good. I know they will be fighting for the most important things during the next couple of years…. I just take it like a difficult match against players that they have a lot of energy. That’s all. (It) is another match…. When you face these young players, they are in permanent improvement. [Tsitsipas is] with confidence; he won a lot of good matches. Will be a tough one.”

Tsitsipas has been the sensation of this tournament, surviving tough four-setters against Matteo Berrettini, Viktor Troicki, and Nikoloz Basilashvili before doing the same–in much grander fashion–against Roger Federer with a 6-7(11), 7-6(3), 7-5, 7-6(5) upset on Saturday night. The 20-year-old Greek followed up the biggest win of his career by beating Roberto Bautista Agut, who was also running low on emotional and physical energy, via a 7-5, 4-6, 6-4, 7-6(2) quarterfinal scoreline.

“It almost feels like a fairytale,” Tsitsipas said. “I’m living a dream–living what I worked so hard for. I told people before that reaching Grand Slam semis was my goal. When I was answering that question I thought I was crazy. But no, it’s real. It happened.”

The world No. 15 will have to rearrange his goals in a hurry, because Nadal will pounce on any sort of satisfaction or complacency. Happy to be in the quarters, Tiafoe came out flat against Nadal, dropped serve right away, and never got into the match en route to a 6-3, 6-4, 6-2 destruction. Tsitsipas cannot afford a similarly slow start.

Given the enormity of the stage and their respective paths through the event, this should once again be one-way traffic for the 17-time major winner.

Pick: Nadal in 3

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26 Comments on Australian Open SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Tsitsipas

  1. The roof is open. It’s strange that my commentator here said that if roof is open, advantage Rafa. I mean, isn’t this supposed to be an outdoor event, so what advantage he’s talking about? Everyone has to play outdoors, so what kind of advantage Rafa has? It’s only when the roof is closed then we can talk about who’s at a disadvantage!

  2. Rafa squandered all the BPs. I know Tsitsipas is bold when saving BPs, S&V and big serving but I sense that Rafa is too cautious, if he just goes for his shots he may land one in.

  3. But truth be told….Tipsi is not playing as well as he was in the last rounds to me….esp his serves, however, the commies just explained y. Its Rafa’s weight of shot, Tipsi cant handle it, unlike Roger’s!

    VAMOS Rafa!!

    • Monalisa, Tsitsi wasn’t playing Rafa in the previous rounds. Fedr should have beaten him if he’d thought outside the box and stopped trading OHBH with him. RBA, had the advantage in every set and somehow flunked it in the end.

  4. I am sad Fed didn’t make it to the semis. It would have bene revenge time for Rafa BIG TIME.

    Like I said, I expect this Rafa to win this in 3 sets and also win the title assuming no injuries rock his boat.

  5. So many varieties in Rafa’s game! He is such a complete player! I am so proud of his constant improvements and added value to his game! 💪💪

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