Good things tend to happen when Daniil Medvedev and Rafael Nadal take the court on opposite sides of the net.
And that is exactly what can be expected when they do so once again on Sunday night amidst the highest-possible stakes in the final of the Australian Open.
Quite memorably, they have been on a similar stage once before. The 2019 U.S. Open final between Nadal and Medvedev is without question one of the best matches of the last decade, with the Spaniard triumphing 7-5, 6-3, 5-7, 4-6, 6-4 after four hours and 51 minutes. Two encounters since have also been high-quality thrillers. Nadal prevailed 6-7(3), 6-3, 7-6(4) at the 2019 Nitto ATP Finals despite trailing 5-1 in the third set, while Medvedev got the best of this matchup for the first time in his career by winning 3-6, 7-6(4), 6-3 in the semis of the 2020 Nitto ATP Finals. Overall, Nadal leads the head-to-head series 3-1–including 2-0 on outdoor hard courts.
That certainly doesn’t make Medvedev the underdog in this particular match. In fact, he has been the overall tournament favorite ever since Novak Djokovic was deported out of Australia. Although the world No. 2 unsurprisingly made his way through to the final, it wasn’t easy. He battled through four tight sets against Maxime Cressy in the fourth round, saved a match point in an incredible 6-7(4), 3-6, 7-6(2), 7-5, 6-4 quarterfinal win over Felix Auger-Aliassime, and then pulled away from Stefanos Tsitsipas 7-6(5), 4-6, 6-4, 6-1 following three wildly entertaining sets on Friday night.
Nadal’s most significant scare also came in the quarters, when he was less than 100 percent physically but managed to hold off Denis Shapovalov 6-3, 6-4, 4-6, 3-6, 6-3 after four hours and eight minutes. Another mid-match hiccup against Matteo Berrettini was more brief, as Nadal advanced to the final via a 6-3, 6-2, 3-6, 6-3 decision on Friday afternoon.
“For me it’s something completely unexpected,” the 35-year-old said of being back in an Australian Open final for the sixth time, which has come on the heels of a foot injury and also a case of Covid-19. “So I am super happy. Everybody knows me; [I’m] always gonna try my best. Of course my goal now is to win.”
Winning won’t be easy against an opponent who is currently the toughest test other than Djokovic for pretty much every player on tour–at least on hard courts. Medvedev is the reigning U.S. Open champion, the 2021 Aussie Open runner-up (to Djokovic), and he will become No. 1 in the world in February when Djokovic’s 2021 title points come off the board if he triumphs on Sunday.
“It’s really tough to get into [a slam] final, and I always have [the Big 3] there waiting for me,” Medvedev noted. “But it’s fun, you know. When I was like eight, 10 years old I was playing against the wall and I was imagining that it’s Rafa on the other side, or Roger.
“Now I have the chance to play (a) second time (against Nadal in a major final). First one was a close one; epic one. I’m gonna try to prepare well and need to show my best, because that’s what I took from the three finals that I had before: that you have to do better than 100 percent in order to win. That’s what I managed to do in (the 2021) U.S. Open; that’s what I’m gonna try to do on Sunday.”
The Russian should be able to do it. At this point in their careers, with Medvedev at 25 years old and Nadal at 35, it’s a favorable matchup for the younger guy. His world-class two-handed backhand can withstand the left-hander’s heavy topspin, his serve can overpower Nadal’s return, and he can better handle the rigors of a five-setter.
Nadal would probably have to win this one in relatively swift fashion if he wants to make history with a double-career Grand Slam and major title No. 21. Given Medvedev’s form at the moment, that isn’t likely to happen.
Pick: Medvedev in 5
WHO YA GOT?
Medvadev in 4
Looking at the h2h, and the only Medvedev’s win was a 3 setter in an indoor hard court I believe Nadal has the edge here and if you believe Medvedev is going to win please prepare yourself for a big surprise. Nadal in 4.
I have neutral expectations on the outcome, similiar to 2019.. In 2012, I was very confident that Nadal would win after watching his Qtr/Semi matches.. In 2014, he was outright favourite. In 2017, he was better bet than Fed.. All were heartbreaking results. In 2019, I didn’t expect him to win. This time he has 40% chance, lets see how it unfolds.
Medvedev is all over the place and doesn’t give any easy points. Even 2 set lead and up a break in 3rd would not be safer.
First of all, Medvedev has a long way to match Novax’ level of tennis. He has most of the ingredients but he’s just not there and probably he never will be. He’s never going to match Djoker’s flexibility nor his mental toughness. Sure, he did beat Novax at USO but let’s not forget that the Serbian was under immense pressure and also running on fumes. Not to mention that for some reason USO seems Daniil’s best GS and Novax’ one of the weakest.
That being said, obviously Med can beat Rafa on Sunday, but this just might be easier said than done.
It’s world class serve, FH and BH plus youth versus one of the best tennis minds of all times, all possible and impossible shots, experience and true grit.
Rafa was at his best just twice in an AO final. He won the first one and he almost beat a prime Djokovic in the second one. If it wasn’t for Nadal’s age and physical issues, Daniil would be no match for an in-form Rafa, even on HC.
The truth is that nobody can predict the level of tennis that Nadal can produce on Sunday. Also this time Medvedev is under pressure as well (considered the favourite, playing for no.1) so let’s see how he copes with that.
So, Rafa in 4. He just needs to avoid bad luck and bring his best tennis.
Agreed, well said! Rafa wins in four sets!
Also feel that prime Rafa > prime Meddy on any surface, when he is able to beat a prime Fed or a prime Djoko on the HCs, their best surface.
But Nadal isnt prime – he’s not going to win like in 2009 when he outlasted Fed.
Meddy is only reaching his prime .
True, but Rafa didn’t really have a HC game back then, he was just fast enough to play a claycourt game on any surface. His game is no longer based on outlasting the opponent, he got much more effective on HC. He outplayed Med in their USO final and I think that he can do that once again. I don’t think that Daniil really plays better now than back then, he just has more experience – but also much more pressure.
There’s no pressure because he expects to be in many more finals and has his whole career ahead of him. He knows that getting the #1 ranking is a formality and just a matter of time, as well.
All the pressure is on Nadal because he knows these opportunities are few and far between at this stage of his career and Djokovic has the advantage in that department.
I disagree, there’s been no signs of nerves from Medvedev. He’s probably the most relaxed player on the tour.
I disgree that Medvedev is not on Djokovic’s level also. They have been on the same level on hard courts for the past 20 odd matches.
So, this will be a similar scenario to playing Novak for Nadal except that Nadal will probably like his chances a bit more, due to the H2H which is significant because Nadal has lost many matches against Djokovic before he walks on the court.
All of that translates into a competitive final but with Medvedev having a clear edge.
Christian, I tend to concur with you.I have been betting against Rafa for years now even at FO!! I don’t like to make predictions but this time I am not betting against him. Rafa more often than not comes out strong in a final. Barring injury or bad luck I can’t see y he can’t pull of the win. He knows how to beat Medvedev and just like Barrty, he has perfected his strategy playing his opponents in this AO and came out on top. Rafa has nothing to lose in this final, this is his 6th trip there and I believe he will do everything in his power to win this one especially when he considers all the heartbreaks he has endured on this court.I think his will to win gives him the edge here, and sometimes in tennis that is all it takes! I wanted Barty to win the AO this year and she did, in style, and likewise I want Rafa to win this trophy, no matter how ugly!!!! Considering the circumstances, Rafa did well to get to the final as no one expected him to, so if he wins it truly would be one of the best wins of his career, no asterisk!!!
Vamos Rafa!! Go make more history!!!
PS: Novak should be glad if Rafa wins, at least he gets to keep his #1 ranking 😜
Should be a thriller, but I’ll take Med in 4.
Good luck Rafa! Go for history. Utilise those drop shots and those volleys and you can do it!
Margot, I can’t wait to see what strategy Rafa employs!! Considering how FAA took the wheels from under Medvedev in the first two sets and a half, it will be very interesting!!
Is Rafa thinking for retiring? In his pressor he sounds like he’s saying goodbye 🙃
No he said he thought about it last year as foot was not recovering I don’t think right now it’s in his mind he says he feels alive again
doubt it
Medvedev in 4 is my selection.
Yeah, u and just about anybody and their cat is predicting that!! Sigh!
Me? Just hoping for a great match and may the beat man win!! Vamos!!
That’s a first!
The key is Rafa”s new big serve! Remember Rafa beating Novak in USO final 2013? Rafa served amazingly and even the GOAT of return game Novak was not able to neutralize it! If Rafa can reproduce the same serve he displayed in this AO in many occasions and if he does it with continuity he will sure capitalize on it!
I hope Rafa and his team make a wise tactical approach in this match! My thinking is: avoid long rallies with Medvedev! This guy can chase every ball and in fact he fancies such game! So Rafa should not indulge him with long energy consuming points! Rafa has some technical advantages over Med and he is an experienced beast! I ecpect Med to have his temper outbursts and put the pressure on the umpire, hope he burns mentally because the way he behaved towards umpire in the SF he deserved to be sanctioned and not get away with it!
Vamos Rafa!
He got sanctioned 12000 aud
Yeah, I know, still not sufficient IMO! One just shall not be allowed to use such disrespectful language with an umpire! Vulgar and barbaric behavior should be sanctioned in a way that they never ever wish to repeat it! Djokovic was sent hom for hitting the line judge unintentionally (the decision of USO which I fully supported and was right to do) but this guy who actually threatened the umpire and yelled at him like he was going to hit him just got 12,000 fine! No way! He should have been sanctioned with higher fine or something more to learn to control his bad temper and to know once for all how to behave on court! Tennis is noble sport and the incidents like this are bad for its reputation!
Also double standards because the incident would have been viewed very differently if a woman did it. Imagine how this would have been reported in the press if any player in the WTA had shouted at an umpire in the way Med did. Also, there is a very good chance that the umpire would have responded very differently if a woman said the same things!
Certainly! Good point, amy! We all promote gender equality but the treatment and the expectations still vastly differ! Men are allowed barbaric behavior and we all know how youngsters look up to these players! Such a shame..
Many of us here admired Nick K. tennis talent but his on court behavior put a shade on it..
Did you see the terrible reports last Autumn of NK’s social media convo with his girlfriend Natashao? He boasts about sleeping with strippers, calls her toxic, and suggests she commits suicide.
Now what would be said if a woman said this to a man?!
Honestly after reading this I can’t stand the sight of NK but he is a huge celebrity and star in Oz.
The double standards are appalling..!
Yes!! They need to learn how the sport is played!! It’s not solely about skill but also about sportsmanship and misbehaving like that should be sanctioned with zero tolerance like having them forfeit the game!!
As for my thoughts on the final, I reckon that Rafa will be tactically prepared and execute to the best that he is capable. If it’s still not enough then I’ll still be proud that he got to this point and I shall concede that a second AO is not lined up in the cards for him, but it was not thorough a lack of trying. Good luck Rafa, and Vamos!!! #21 is beckoning!!
Well said Mona!😀
I am incredibly proud of what he has done in getting to the final! If he wins it’s jam but it’s not the be all and end all for Rafa and nor is it for me..
He will have other chances this year..😀😀
I did not know about Med going aggressively the chair umpire. Another reason gif me to dislike him. Someone on VB was talking about Med and his attitude and behavior on the court. She said she thinks he is a psychopath! I don’t know about that, but people have taken note of his disgusting behavior.
Serena Williams was taken to task when she went after a linesperson and chair umpires. There was no sympathy for her. Double standard is right! There is no excuse for Med behaving that way, I detest it.
Another reason FOR me to dislike Med.
Yes but everyone knows Serena is a lot more selfish than most else so it was viewed differently.
Medvedev wasn’t doing it because he’s a selfish little brat.
Put simply, the context of her outburst was different.
Yes, his big new serve at 35! Makes a lot of sense.
If you are able to read you would notice that I said this big serve originated from 2013, but Rafa experienced some back issues as a consequence and did not use it as much! I saw some of it this year and I hope he uses it more…anyway, just hope Rafa can find his best serve..
On a different note, I enjoyed watching the women finals and the men”s doubles match! Great win for Barty she really dominated at this AO!
Also, great to see Kyrgios and Kokk wining the title! So fun to watch!
Oh great for Kyrios and Barty!! The AO was great for Aussies this year!! Yeah, I really wanted Barty to win and she gave such a great performance this year. I wish her the best for the rest of the season!!
It’s great for the Aussies every year. Life is great in this part of the world.
Rafa not timing his backhand well at the moment. I can sew he is trying to vary the pace but needs to go for more on the forehand and FIND FIRST SERVES
Rafa’s level not up to how he’s played in the previous rounds.
Vamos!
Rafa’s serve is not on today, giving Med too much look on his serve.
Rafa hitting with more authority in this first game. Gosh Med’s counterpunching/defense is insane.
Come on! It’s definitely not an unsolvable problem. I hope he is able to find better serves.
Rafa being out-rallied and out-served.. only thing to hope for is to medvedev to go walk-about
Wow, Medvedev came to play!! Rafa can’t do baseline with Medvedev!! Disaster!! Even S&V would reap more rewards!
I expected Rafa to go for shorter points but he doesn’t seem to have his mojo today.
I guess he hasn’t found a way to do so yet but at least Rafa has not given up on himself! He IS trying and is staying in the points!
Medvedev is clearly a baseline player. Fed or Murray would punish him with their guile!
Rafa needs to serve well and use drop shots more. He just needs to relax and play the game he knows he should! Yes!!!S&V, right there!!
I think Rafa’s got great variation in his play today. Mixing up the pace and trajectory extremely well. Hasn’t had his way often enough with the big finish shots but that’s also due to Med’s defense.
The problem that remains is: FIRST SERVE
Hope Medvedev’s level drops.