Australian Open final preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Murray

It will be the fourth Australian Open final between Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray when the top two players in the world battle for the title on Sunday. Murray is coming off a five-setter against Milos Raonic and will have enjoyed one fewer day of rest when they take the court.

Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray will be squaring off for the 31st time in their careers when they contest a rematch of the 2015 Australian Open final on Sunday night. Djokovic is dominating the head-to-head series 21-9 after taking 10 of their last 11 encounters. They most recently faced each other in the Paris Masters title match last fall, when the Serb cruised 6-2, 6-4.

Djokovic is 4-0 lifetime against Murray in Melbourne. The world No. 1 triumphed 7-6(5), 6-7(4), 6-3, 6-0 last year on the heels of victories in 2011 (straight sets in the final), 2012 (five sets in the semis), and 2013 (four sets in the final).
Djoker 1
Murray will get another shot at his heavily-favored opponent, but not before a five-set scare during semifinal action on Friday. The world No. 2 trailed Milos Raonic two sets to one before recovering to beat a hobbled Canadian 4-6, 7-5, 6-7(4), 6-4, 6-2 in four hours and three minutes. Murray preceded that triumph with defeats of Alexander Zverev, Sam Groth, Joao Sousa, Bernard Tomic, and David Ferrer, while dropping second sets to Sousa and Ferrer along the way.

Djokovic also endured one five-setter en route to championship Sunday, and he did so in far more shocking fashion than Murray. The top seed sprayed a ridiculous 100 unforced errors but managed to survive a third-round test against Gilles Simon 6-3, 6-7(1), 6-4, 4-6, 6-3. Djokovic also boasts wins over Hyeon Chung, Quentin Halys, Andreas Seppi, Kei Nishikori, and Roger Federer. The 10-time major champion was especially ruthless in sets one and two of his 6-1, 6-2, 3-6, 6-3 decision against Federer on Thursday night.

“Against Roger, these first two sets have been probably the best two sets I’ve played against him overall I think throughout my career,” Djokovic assessed. “I’ve had some moments against him in sets where I’ve played on a high level, but this was…yeah…I think a different level than from before.”

A different level is exactly what Djokovic has been on from everyone else on tour over the last year and a half. He went 82-6 last season, reached the final of all but one tournament, and captured 11 titles–three of the slam variety. So far this year Djokovic is 11-0 with a winner’s trophy in Doha to his credit.

Still, Murray insists he has a chance in this one.

“The most important thing for me is to sustain my level for long enough, not just for one set here or there, a few games here or there,” the underdog explained. “I need to do it for a very long period if I want to get the win. That’s my challenge. I’ve obviously played very good tennis here. I’ve given myself many opportunities, [reaching] the finals (four times); seven straight quarterfinals, as well. I have a very good shot on Sunday if I play my best tennis.”
Murray
But can he play his best tennis for what will likely be–if he is going to prevail–five sets? In Djokovic’s two major victories over the Scot in 2015, he won the deciding sets 6-0 (Australian Open final) and 6-1 (French Open semis). Djokovic also swept Murray 6-0 in the third set of their Miami title match.

Perhaps one thing the second seed has going for him is that he is essentially a rich man’s Simon, and it is Simon who has given Djokovic by far his toughest match of the tournament. Most of Djokovic’s wounds were recorded as self-inflicted ones, but the Frenchman played his part by forcing his opponent to hit an incredible amount of balls. Murray will do the same–at least until he runs out of gas. Look for Murray to once again stay competitive early before Djokovic powers his way to a sixth Aussie Open title.

Pick: Djokovic in 4

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115 Comments on Australian Open final preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Murray

    • He will equal Fed if he wins the USO this year, but I think of greater concern is the FO right now. In my mind, if Novak focuses on the process like last year instead of like all the preceding years (he talked way too much about his goals), then he puts himself in the best possible position to win it, barring someone playing amazing tennis in a big match like Stan in ’15, or Nadal in ’13.

  1. @ hawkeye 2:25 PM,
    No! If Murray loses on one of his favorite indoor events to an out of form Rafa than it means only one thing: inconsistency!
    Hope this helps!

    • No Rafa was near his best in that one match and Muzz wasn’t.

      One match. Inconsistent.

      Muzz playing poorly and Rafa playing near his best are the exceptions today.

      • Hahaha…what a strange way to define consistency: murray is consistent but suddenly inconsistent then consistent again…funny you are!

        • No. Check their respective rankings and results over last year compared to their respective best particularly not including vs Nole and get back to me.

          • No! Check how much Rafa achieved being sidelined with injuries whole his life and still ensuring consistency and check Murray’s! Unless your point is that Murray’s best is still being mediocre player way out of Rafa’s league! That much I can agree but then stop comparing him with Rafa because it really makes no sense..,

    • hahhaahhaaaahahahaha.. “Disclaimer: IMO”

      omg, hawk. I’m having one of those coughing attacks from laughing. that’s one of the best one’s yet, imo. disclaimer, imo.

      • It should be implied for all posts. At least that’s how any sane person should read them.

        Common sense is an oxymoron.

        In my opinion.

        • The problem is that, more often than not, people will post things that are subjective or speculation, or unsupportable, or only supportable by rigging, padding and contriving stats to prove a favored outcome – however – will state their favorite hypothetical conclusively, as fact, as if already proven. It can’t be helped, it’s human nature. To err is human, to forgive, divine.

          Please, too happy to go there in a serious way – enjoying the moment. It won’t last long.

          ps, I was wrong and you were right about the winning by one measly point! 😀

          • Ricky’s winning margin in our pool. You kept saying one point. I thought he’d win by way more than one point.

            hadn’t done the math. forgive me.

          • Ah, yes one point. But we have no idea who that is to be honest.

            As I said, what’s one point amongst excellent prognosticators.

            Besides, I picked a significant number of matches correctly. Tourneytopia points system is just skewed heavily towards the later rounds to keep everyone in the pool with a chance to come back.

          • And I agree about human nature.

            Every one does it to some degree.

            Except about rigging that is. I mean 13 non-clay slam draws in a row. Just. Please. Stop it. 🙂

          • rc,

            I really appreciated what you said in your post @3:50 pm. I see it quite a bit on these tennis forums, where some do use speculation and subjectivity and also selectively pick data to then support their point of view. Then there is the hypothetical argument, which is stated as fact all too often.

            I am not sure in what sense you meant it, but I feel that it happens all too frequently in discussions here and elsewhere.

            How did the bracket play out?

          • Thanks, Nny. Left you a message on the WTA thread.

            Yes, I meant little bit here and a lot elsewhere. But here is a happier place than elsewhere. Elsewhere has is more over-the-top. But there’s always hope. 😉

            The brackets are not updated, so entire standings aren’t available, but here’s the final pool standings for the top five:
            http://www.tourneytopia.com/RacquetBracketAussieOpenATP/TheGrandstand2016/pool/whatif.aspx

            Hopefully everyone enjoyed the pool. Thanks for joining. And thanks to Ricky setting it up!

  2. I checked online to see the score and it’s the same old, same old with Murray. I woke up at one point in the wee hours and turned on the tv. The score was 6-1 Novak in the first set and the second set was tight at that point, 5-4 or something. Then I went back to sleep with the feeling that Novak might well do it in 3 sets.

    I am disappointed that Murray could not make a real match of it. Yet again. So Fed tried and Murray tried. The #2 and #3 players. Stan didn’t make it through because he lost to Raonic. I have been reading the comments and catching up.

    As for Raonic making a better match of it, I don’t think so. He doesn’t have the physical strength to hang with Novak in a best of five set match. Novak would have had the answers, his ROS would have thrown off Raonic and his strength off both wings would have made a difference. I don’t think Raonic is quite there yet. So if anyone is relying on him to stop Novak, then I think they will be disappointed.

    I am happy for the Novak fans here. They should be happy for their guy. Many here wondered if Novak could possibly keep it up in the new year. Well, I would say this win and him beating both Fed and Murray along the way, indicates that he is more than prepared to keep it up.

    Amy, ratcliffe and all other Novak fans, congratulations to all of you!

    • nny, thanks for that. wish others were as generous and fair as you are….!
      i don’t think milos would have beaten nole..but it could have been a more entertaining match….

      • amy,

        I know that you are a Rafa fan and want him to come back and play the way we all know he can. I want the same thing, more than words can say. But for now, this is the reality. I have to accept it and say well done to Novak! He wants to win and always seems to work harder to come back stronger each year.

        There is no weak era, but some will try to make that argument. It’s one way that they will try to deal with how Novak is dominating right now. It’s just that for now Novak has distanced himself from his rivals.

        Novak would have beaten Raonic in fairly straightforward fashion. We saw how Raonic got injured in that long five setter with Andy. He tends to be injury prone, like Nishi. That could hurt his chances of trying to win a slam. But I appreciate the effort and hard work he’s put in to try to have a shot at winning a slam.

        I am really disappointed with Andy. Maybe I am being kind of unfair. But I keep hoping that he can at least get a set off Novak. I guess it’s not happening these days.

      • ^^exactly! That was meant by saying Milis would have done better, but to beat Nole, no way! Milos also did not stand a chance!

      • yup, Milos could only have challenged him but beating him is something else.

        Right now, can only just congratulate Novak and his fans, and wait for Buenos Aires to begin .

        Rafa’s hardwork in the off season and the improvement in his feeling on court in terms of not feeling nerves like he did in most of 2015, will pay off. He will be fighting for the slams soon

  3. I don’t know what to make of this match. Judging purely at the result, Novak looks unbeatable, and better than ever. Winning in straights while not playing his best.

    On the other hand, I thought Murray executed his game plan pretty well, and outplayed Novak for a good portion of the match (starting from 2nd set). Don’t know about you guys… I was still pretty tense even after Novak took a 2 set lead. Andy dictated points, made Novak play on his heels. What killed him were the very untimely UEs. He just doesn’t seem to be clutch at the most crucial points.

    Anyways, big congrats to Nole and all his fans. It’s crazy he’s made every finals for a full calendar year (’15 AO). One step closer to #18!

    • Yes, I hadn’t thought about that. Novak has made every slam final for a full calendar year! Wow! I guess that’s consistency! 🙂

        • Murray has made quarterfinals or better in ww of his last 24 slams and made semis or better in 7 of eight masters played last year, by far his best yearly result in Masters. That’s called consistency! 🙂

          • Murray has by far the most rankings points he ever did. About 1500 more than either of the two years he won slams.

            Now that’s consistency.

          • In 2012 when Murray won US Open he ended the year with 8000 points.

            In 2013 when Murray won Wimbledon he ended the year with 5790 points.

            Today, Andy has 8945 rankings points, the most he’s ever had.

          • One thing about Murray, he has never had > or = 10,000 in ranking points at any one time even when he was ranked as high as no.2

            Rafa, Fed and Novak when ranked as no.2 could still have 10,000 or more ranking points during the season or at end of season. Rafa in 2007 had finished the season with 10,000 points or more if we adjust the points using current ranking points system. Fed too in 2012 and Novak in 2013.

            Murray still has some way to go to get to 10,000 points.

          • Yes, it’s called consistency for the mediocre player who does not aim at winning more slams! Ask Stan how it’s done! They have equal number of slams and Stan is definitely not consistent player!
            #doublestandards

          • Let’s compare and review…

            Murray has made quarterfinals or better in 19 of his last 20 slams and made semis or better in 7 of eight masters played last year, by far his best yearly result in Masters. That’s called consistency

            Stan is 9 of 20 QF or better in slams and 2 of 9 semis or better in Masters.

            Here to help.

          • @ 5:42 PM,

            No! I guess we observe it differently… IMO a player who has won GSs is consistent if he continues wining one or even losing in the finals. Murray hardly did anything after wining Wimby 2013 and his time is running up…

            The reason Andy is able to do well, i.e., reach semis or quarters (now that’s called lowering standards!) is WEAK ERA(and again we go back to what I was saying at the beginning of this whole argument) and you then stating that this Murray can beat anyone…Obviously NOT because both Rafa and Stan (who is inconsistent player BTW) beat him at his bellowed WTF!

            So, if by consistency you mean reaching semis and quarters in the tournaments that is your opinion! I think not! Murray may also disagree with you. I think his goal is at wining more not only playing quarters and semis…in that regard, I recall Andy has been picked more than once to win GS and failed so many times… I think that’s pretty disappointing for a “consistent” player…

            I rest my case here!

          • Nah you tried to lump Murray and Fed in with Rafa saying earlier that all three were far from their best.

            Murray’s best is far from Rafa’s best or Nole’s best.

            So yes we do disagree because Murray’s game simply has not regressed IMO and Fed is almost as good, if not as good as always. He is in no way far from his best.

            And I rest my case here! (assuming you stick to your word.)

            #AgreeToDisagree

  4. One by one Novak is going to match if not break Fed’s records.

    He has matched Fed’s 17 consecutive finals and if he makes the Dubai final, he will surpass Fed’s and matches Lendl’s 18 in a row.

    He has 5 WTF titles, only one short of Fed’s. He’s now at 27 slam QF in a row, 9 more to go and 10 to surpass Fed. He’s some 180+ weeks at no.1, if he holds on to the no.1 ranking till end of the year, he will be 230 weeks at no.1 so another one and a half years or so from there he’ll catch up with Fed.

    He still has 6 slams to go to match Fed’s 17. He already has more Masters titles; has the DC and has a good chance of winning the Olympics this year. He still has chances to win a FO to complete his career slam. Even better, he has chance of winning four slams in a row.

    He will match Fed’s 9 HC slams if he wins the USO this year, if not then the AO next year; should he win the AO next year, he’ll be holding 7 AO titles just like Fed holding 7 Wimbledon titles, incredible!

    There are still so many things Novak could look to accomplish, its no wonder he’s still so motivated.

    Rafa please come back and sets more records of your own that may never he broken, at least for a long long time! Vamos Rafa!

      • VR, Rafa has his 10 years in a row of winning both a Slam and a Masters that may never be matched for a long long time.

        He has his 9 FOs, dominance on clay for almost a decade, 81 match winning streak on clay; one more clay title and he will have the most clay titles in the open era or even in history so far.

        His 8 in a row at MC, a Masters, is something hard to match; Novak may do his at Beijing (currently at 6 in a row) but that’s not a Masters.

        If Rafa wins the FO again, he will be the first in the Open era to win a tournament, or a slam to be exact, 10 times!

        I think if Rafa carries on winning the clay events, his records on clay may stand for a long long time!

  5. Genuine Rafa fans are hurting; fake Rafa fans are jumping on the Nole bandwagon.

    #camp followers
    #defecting to rival camp
    #treason

    • whenever rafa loses and Djokovic wins, Nadline10 deals with that by trashing other rafa fans. It is a pity this has become a hobby. LOL

      You will get over it…try to keep it to yourself. Rafa will soon be out playing well on clay.

      #SelfrighteousFansAreEverywhere

      • vr, she’s not a rafa fan. she’s a fan of using rafa as a pretext to trash other players and other people.
        no-one who really cared about him would exploit his name and reputation in that way which is purely for their own self-interest.

        • lol…I know amy 🙂 Rafa himself is singing praises for Novak.What he said about his level after Doha was really something. Nadline10 defended that by saying rafa was just being honest. Now may I ask, what are we doing here? LOL LOL… just being honest and accepting Novak’s too damn good and rafa has loadss of work to do (which he is doing). Same as rafa

          #DoubleStandardsAreEverywhere

          But, some thins don’t change. But What can we do? The least we can do is use the hashtag #SelfrighteousFansAreEverywhere. hahah

          • AT 5:21 PM,
            — Rafa himself is singing praises for Novak.—
            ===
            .
            The ATP players are obliged to be polite towards each other.
            The ATP Rulebook, page 178:
            ¤¤ …it is an obligation for ATP players and Related Persons, to refrain from engaging in conduct contrary to the integrity of the game of tennis.
            a) Conduct contrary to the integrity of the game shall include, but not be limited to, publicized comments that unreasonably attack or disparage any person or group of people, a tournament, sponsor, player, official or the ATP. …. ¤¤
            .
            Fans are under no obligation to praise anyone.

        • amy,

          Thank you for saying this! I never thought that I would see the day where someone would actually come on a tennis site and call other posters “traitors”!

          It’s pathetic for anyone to equate tennis matches with somehow being disloyal. The word “traitor” should be reserved for those who betray their country!

          If a person cannot deal with another player other than their favorite winning, except by throwing around cheap shots and insults and hyperbole, then someone needs a reality check!

  6. On another note, congrats to Ricky for getting so many new posters here! It is great to see fans of other players share their views here.

    The Grandstand is a big hit now, well done 😉 Keep it up!

  7. Yes, it’s great to see fans of other players here joining in the discussion. I sincerely hope that they will stay and continue to post their thoughts and support their favorites!

    It’s been great to share some quality tennis discussions with all of them!

  8. 🙁 SO Rafa did finally get the wooden spoon Nadal lost to Verdasco lost to Sela lost to Kuznetsov lost to Monfils lost to Raonic lost to Murray lost to Djokovic

  9. dedicated to nadline.

    do you know why novak is so successful and nadal is not? novak is not afraid to show his biological passport.

  10. This oxygen therapy is not illegal according to Wada.
    It can’t be too wonderful if Mike Bryan and bethany sands are using it and not winning anything

  11. I would hope that we can finally clear up any insinuations about hyperbaric oxygen therapy. I mentioned previously that I went to a physical therapy facility that has it and was told that professional athletes use it frequently.

    It’s been clarified here already that it’s legal. I am not sure why it should be brought up in connection with Novak again.

    • It’s legal in the USA and Australia. Not in Europe. And yes, athletes do use it because it hasn’t been banned yet. But there is a cloud over whether it should be used in sports. This is because it supplements high altitude physical training and speeds or rather facilitates natural recovery in a somewhat simulated manner. If it is indeed not a problem I see no harm in the ATP making this facility available to players ranked lower. Then it is their call if the treatment suits them. But it’ll level the playing field.

  12. it’s banned in Europe…I wonder if that’s the reason why Novak can’t win RG where the matches are most demanding physically…it seems he obviously got used to it too much and runs into problems if it’s not available…interesting…

  13. @ augusta 6:40 PM,

    Stan Wawrinka beat “unbeatable” Nole in the RG? How was that possible when the guy was able to win all other GSs? Mainly because the RG matches are taxing on Novak’s body and unfortunately the famous egg is forbidden in Europe…

    When Nole was on the run in 2011 beating Rafa and doing huge damage to Rafa’s confidence he still lost in the semis to whom???- Maestro himself not Rafa…When Rafa beat Nole in the RG 2014 Nole’s fans were saying that it was due to Nole’s health issues (throwing up, feeling dizzy, being weak, etc.)…blablabla..

    So I am more inclined to think that Novak may never be able to win it because he is so dependent on his precious egg for recovery that he obviously runs into problems when it’s not at his disposal…

    Hope Rafa takes a note…it’s enough for Rafa to take him to five sets…

    • My intention in the above post was to refer back to augusta saying:

      “I will answer the question myself since nobody dares saying it…” 🙂

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