For the second time in the span of three Grand Slams, Roger Federer and Marin Cilic will be squaring off in a final when they take the court one more time at the 2018 Australian Open on Sunday night.
Federer and Cilic faced each other in last summer’s Wimbledon title match, in which the Swiss sailed to a 6-3, 6-1, 6-4 victory to complete a perfect run at the All-England Club during which he did not drop a single set. Cilic managed to take a set at the Nitto ATP Finals a few months later, but Federer still recovered for a 6-7(5), 6-4, 6-1 win and improved to 8-1 lifetime in the head-to-head series (5-1 on hard courts). Cilic famously earned his lone upset in this matchup with a 6-3, 6-4, 6-4 romp in the 2014 U.S. Open semifinals on the way to his first and so far only major winner’s trophy.
The similarities are striking between this Australian Open and the 2017 Wimbledon event, and not just because it is all coming down to Federer vs. Cilic. Once again, Federer has coasted into a slam final without the loss of even one set. Cilic, on the other hand, has again battled through several three-hour affairs to keep his hopes alive for a second Grand Slam triumph. Injuries plagued the All-England Club festivities, with Novak Djokovic retiring in the quarterfinals, Andy Murray barely managing to complete his quarterfinal loss, Stan Wawrinka not playing again the rest of the season following his departure from London, and even Cilic bogged down by blisters in the final. In Melbourne, Rafael Nadal retired from his quarterfinal clash against Cilic and both semifinals were marred by physical problems.
This fortnight should end in far more entertaining fashion than Wimbledon last summer, when the title match was a snooze-fest.
After all, Cilic is showcasing something similar to the form that took the rest of the field by storm four years ago in New York. The sixth-ranked Croat, who will climb to a career-high No. 3 on Monday, has advanced with victories over Vasek Pospisil, Joao Sousa, Ryan Harrison, Pablo Carreno Busta, Nadal (via fifth-set retirement), and Kyle Edmund.
“I’m feeling really, really good physically, even though I had few matches that went more than three hours,” Cilic commented. “I think I played great tournament so far with my level of tennis. I think I improved it [compared] to end of the last year. I’m playing much, much more aggressive. I’m feeling that I am, for most of the shots, hitting them really, really good. From the return, moving, forehand, backhand, serving, I think everything is in (a) good, solid spot. (I’m) feeling really excited about the final.”
Nobody has been as good or as dominant as Federer. The 36-year-old has basically waltzed past Aljaz Bedene, Jan-Lennard Struff, Richard Gasquet, Marton Fucsovics, Tomas Berdych, and Hyeon Chung (via second-set retirement). Struff, Fucsovics, and Berdych pushed him to one tiebreaker apiece, with Berdych even leading 5-2 in the first set before Federer quickly restored order.
“I think I’ve done everything pretty well,” the second seed assessed. “I’m just pleased that actually my game has been good from the very beginning of the tournament. I mean, I’ve won all my matches without dropping a set. Clearly I was a bit lucky against Berdych in that first set, but things must be all right if I’m in this stage right now not having dropped a set and in the finals.”
But Federer is well aware that things are going swimmingly for Cilic, too.
“I definitely think him winning the U.S. Open gave [him] great belief,” Federer said. “If the big moments come about, that [players like Cilic and Stan Wawrinka] can attain this level–not easily, but they can get there from time to time. I think he played great against Rafa. I think the belief and the way he played very positive made him win that match because he didn’t look good there for a while when he was down a set and a break and everything.
“So I like his attitude; he’s very professional. He’s always very much the same regardless of whether he wins or loses. I like that attitude. On the court, he’s a winner. You can see it on the way he behaves on the court. He’s there to win and not just to be there. Sometimes you see other players you feel like they’re happy to have made the quarters so far. I think he strives for more.”
Cilic should be able to do more on Sunday than he did at Wimbledon, and not just because he appears to be 100 percent from a health standpoint. He is playing better than he did during his run in SW19 and a medium-paced hard court is arguably more conducive to his game than grass, as the ball bounces higher into his strike zone and he has more time to set up his huge groundstrokes.
Federer will likely be tested for the first time this fortnight, but experience, freshness, and just about every other factor favor the 19-time major champion.
Pick: Federer in 4
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Borg should never have retired at 26.
Borg didn’t really have a choice. He’d had no life outside tennis and he wanted one. He really went off the rails for awhile but he straightened out and he’s got a good life now. I think. Would it be better if he’d won a career slam, as many titles as Jimmy Connors and a dozen RG’s? Doubt it.
Ramara,
You are correct. If anyone watched the documentary – “McEnroe/Borg: Fire and Ice” then you would understand why Borg left. He started at 15, both he and Rafa were teenage phenomenons. But he started to hate the grind and lost the passion and will to compete. He basically burned out. He was like a machine with his mental and physical strength. He engaged in 30+ rallies at RG and could outlast anyone.
Borg had these rituals when he was playing. He would always take the same route to the tournament. He slept naked in bed at the same temperature every night. He used the same towel in court.
Rafa has his own rituals when he is playing. Both Borg and Rafa have been compared because they are similar in playing style and mental and physical strength. I worried that Rafa might go the way of Borg and burnout. Borg never had to battle injuries like Rafa.
Borg just lost it and left at the peak of his career. I was a huge fan and it devastated me. But I understand how a person can break down and just lose the desire or will and not be able to do it anymore. Borg made it look easy but in that documentary you realize that it was anything but.
Borg did what he needed to do at the time. He accomplished so much at such a tough g age. Eleven slams, six RG’s, 5 Wimbledon’s. Winning the channel slam three consecutive years. Rafa has done it twice but not in consecutive years.
Borg gave all he could and finally had to walk away. He struggled but did get himself together. He seems content with what he did in tennis. If he had stayed on the game he would surely have broken Roy Emerson’s record at the time of 12 slams.
Perhaps the best grass court player of all time along with Sampras and Laver. Even MacEnroe, Nole, Federer and Rafa’s best on grass would challenge that elite group.
I think what really finished him was not winning the US after coming close , and all the hard work.
Then , he was asked to qualify for Slams the following year.Insult to injury.
I still think he could have taken a break, and kept playing with less intensity/a reduced schedule, but maybe that was the problem, it was all or nothing with him and his style.
And I know he’s compared to Nadal (and Federer) but he didn’t have the benefit of modern racquet technology to generate his topspin.
And that wasn’t an anti-Nadal comment, at all.
None taken.
Nor did he have the uniform grass surface as it is today that allows players the ability to take the ball on the rise.
Al,
You make some good points. I think not winning the USO did take its toll. Connors and McEnroe got the best of him. In that last USO final, Borg just went away. He stopped competing. I remember when I was watching it and I knew something was terribly wrong. Then after the match ended, he just walked off the court without staying for the trophy ceremony. He said that later he apologized to McEnroe for doing that.
I never understood why Borg couldn’t just take a break and then come back. I do think with him it was all or nothing.
I know that when he walked away, it broke my heart.
Borg said (sorry don’t remember when) that he’d been wanting to retire for at least a year before he did, and had spoken to his parents about it. Possibly he hung in to try to win a hard court slam and was disappointed because he couldn’t make it happen and knew it was his last chance.
Borg and Nadal had similar games . Nadal had the benefit of modern technology , but I never realised how bad Borgs OCD was .Nadal just had his bottle lining up routine as far as I know…;)
Goes waaaaay beyond just the bottles and I’m guessing your wink acknowledges that.
Much better than it used to be however. He’s kept the rituals that don’t cost him time and energy.
I was a big fan of Borg, too. I believe it was a few years before he briefly attempted a comeback and motivated more by needing money than tennis. And yes, he did not want to play qualies as he was nearly 30 then.
I don’t know if Rafa could have played pro tennis back then. It was such a lonely sport. Nowadays having a team around is more or less standard and Rafa needs team and family around. Not to mention constant communication by cell phone and computer. Rafa’s also been able to maintain his Manacor life and friends, which is very, very important to him.
@NNY,
Thanks for sharing. Always a pleasure to read thoughts of an experienced, knowledgable tennis viewer/observer. I wasn’t even born in the borg era so wonder how it might have been like.
The guy was unique and history will ALWAYS remember him.
Yeah!…Agree with VR!..Always loved to read younger version of Nny talking about tennis..u know since i still p@#’d in my pants at that time..so i didn’t know a thing about Borg & clans tennis..
VR,
Thanks for that! I am always happy to talk about the first tennis love of my life. I do grateful that Rafa has stayed in the game , despite the injuries and tough times. He is very resilient.
I just wanted to say that it’s been great to have you back here talking tennis. I took a while off and then came back right before the AO started.
It would not be the same if you were not here to do your analysis and in depth discussion of Rafa’s game!
😀
Sorry, I meant to say I AM grateful that Rafa is still playing tennis. *
@MA, LOL!
NNY,
Thanks for your kind words. Hope everything is well at your end!
Yeah it’s good to be discussing tennis again. I think the tennis community here has grown and is richer now.
I almost didn’t come back to post here but I guess I am back for now…
Thanks NNY for your comment about Borg. Wow, I think Borg at that time was a fitter player than what Rafa is now in the modern era. I mean he playing 30+ shots rallies and yet not getting injured. He winning the channel slams thrice was mighty impressive because of the slow clay/quick grass back then.
I agree, that had he not lost his desire and passion for the sport, he might win some more slams and who knows may be the so called ‘Goat’.
Personally, I don’t think Borg could handle the fact that by 1981 McEnroe was better than he was. If Mac had a fraction of the focus and commitment that Federer has, he would have dominated the entire 80s (in 1981 he was only 22).
Imo, he was the greatest tennis talent ever seen before Federer came along.
Shame he’s such a prick.
Yeah, its quite incredible how a clay court topspin player was able to adapt to that at short notice.
Murray is also a pretty great GC player ….
Is strange how Murray hardly gets a mention on this site .Apart from his two Wimbledon titles, his performances at Queens club were some of the best ever seen.
I love Murray but I wouldn’t put him in the same grass elite as mentioned above. Becker is not quite in that strata either imo as great as he was.
True. Murray was beaten by Rafa thrice at Wimbledon – 2008, 2010 and 2011 and beaten by Fed in 2012 and 2015.
Murray had beaten Djoko at Wimbledon once, in 2013 final, but unlike Djoko, he couldn’t beat Fed or Rafa at Wimbledon.
I would think that Fedal and Djoko > Murray on grass when they’re all playing their best tennis.
But ls, he lost to Fed in 2012 after the roof was closed.Then went on to beat Nole and Fed to win his gold medal.
Best of three match vs Djoko; final vs Fed no doubt was Bo5 but Fed looked spent after his long match vs Delpo in the SF.
Problem with Murray in BO5 is that he couldnt sustain a high level long enough to beat the other three guys who are all more offensive than him.
Exactly lucky.
Still, I believe that had the roof remained opened (as it should have), Murray would have righted the ship and beaten Federer on that day. He had the belief and epic matches like Wimby finals can have more than one turning point – but the roof prevented that. Federer – on grass – indoors no less, is a very difficult challenge for Muzza over five.
True ….
Rafa said he will play Acapulco in February. Good news if he wants to keep top spot
Also I know Rafa is much better of a clay court and even on a hard court but I think Rafa’s grass court form is pretty good from 2006-2010 and in 2017 (lost to a grass court specialist). He had a good chance to make the final last year
I’d say he was excellent on grass in 2011 also where he only lost in the final (in his fifth consecutive Wimbledon event) only losing to Novak in a form that nobody could touch at the time.
He’s good on grass,but his knee problem prevents him bending low enough and is used to explain his defeats over the past six years. How would he have done on the traditional low bouncing courts of I wouldn’t like to guess.
Same for Federer. No guarantee that he’d be the same on the faster, less consistent grass where the ball wasn’t so predictable preventing him from taking the ball so early.
I think as long as his knees were good like they were from 2006-2011 with five straight final appearances, Rafa would do fine.
👍Hawkeye, you’re right. When Rafa’s knees were healthy, he’s perfectly fine playing on grass – watch him at Wimbledon from 2006-2008, no issues bending his knees when taking on Fed’s slices and returning them with interest with his DTL FH that had Fed scrambling to reach them, when most of Fed’s opponents would at best sliced the ball CC right back at Fed and many netted the ball while doing so.
Luckystar, you might wanna check my response to your post on the Rafael Nadal page 🙂
VR, I’ve posted a comment and a question to you at the Nadal page too.
Rafa is vulnerable on grass more now . Not like he was not earlier. He had a couple of five-setters in 2010 and was little lucky to scrape through. He always has little trouble against big servers on grass.
I dont think its the case with knees only.
On grass, not only Rafa was vulnerable to big server/big hitter. Fed had his problems against Cilic at Wimbledon too in 2015; even against Roddick, a player he owned, he was pushed to the limit at the Wimbledon 2009 final; Djoko too was pushed to the limit many times – by Delpo at Wimbledon 2013, by Cilic in 2014.
What player wasn’t vulnerable to big servers/hitters on grass?Something wrong with the grass,otherwise.
Exactly lucky. How many players in the modern era made it to five straight Wimbledon finals of events entered. Only Borg, McEnroe, Fed and Rafa.
Doesn’t matter about five sets. It matters who wins.
How many five setters Rafa has played with non Top 10 big servers in grass. How many for Fed and Djoker. You will get an answer.
I am not including post 2011 or pre 2006 losses.
How many did each of them face?
That will give you the answer to a more telling question.
Roger just posted a pic on Instagram thanking the fans in Melbourne for their support during the tournament. And he also says “Can’t wait until next year” at the end. #phew 😅
He was asked the same by Wilander and his team.
He said he totally forgot to say that in the moment as he was overwhelmed. It doesn’t mean anything at all. People just read too much into everthing lol
#Phew 😂👍.
I wish Roger would play doubles.
Me too but age is not on his side.
If he plays a doubles match it would affect his game in a singles match so no no 4 me.
I want him to play the French Open, if he plays their is a good chance that other players will go slamless 🤣😋✌ especially.. 😂
there.
Novak beat Federer twice at W, although i dont believe the Federer of old in his prime would lose to Novak twice at W, and not making excuses Novak came from nowhere to have this amazing year in 2011, and beat Rafa in the W final after Rafa went off the boil, Rafa came close in 2007, before cracking the case in 2008, his record is better now at the USO winning 3 of the 4 finals hes made, so his best chance of GS away from clay is the USO going forward ….
Since we’re on this topic, I wonder the grass of the 1980s, how quick/slow was that compared to the 1990s and to post 2002.
People are complaining that the grass is slow now, enabling the retrievers to win on them, but if they revert the surface to 1990s quickness, it’ll skew towards favoring the big servers esp with modern string technology.
How about reverting to 1980s pace?
PS. I dont see why Rafa, Djoko and Murray winning at Wimbledon was because of grass slowing down, as if theyre not good enough skill wise to win on grass.
They beat Delpo or Cilic or Raonic on grass just like what Fed could do; I dont see why it favored them but not Fed (who won more Wimbledon titles than any one of them and all of them combined).
Luckystar who do you support in WTA?
Who’s your favourite?
Lucky, it is only fedfans who say this so bias is the reason why.
Yeah Hawkeye; but Im keen to know how the 1980s grass played like – super quick, normal quickness or medium quick ie slower than 1990s but quicker than post 2002?
Tough to compare given the other variables like wooden racquets.
That’s right, to be scientific about the comparison, you should only change one variable at a time .
Fedfans are honest, fair, passionate etc about tennis and tennis players.
It’s debatable since they never played each other on fast grass.
But if you look at the evidence on fast hard court,Fed does have the edge over his main rivals.
Now,I’m not saying that edge would transfer to grass,but it’s an indicator.
Not only the speed but the consistency and evenness of the grass.
It was a different game than it is today.
Hawkeye 😂, who is currently the best player in men’s tennis?
Yes, there were a lot more bad bounces on the grass back in the day.Great leveller.
OTOH, todays grass, if it were faster, would still suit Federer better than his main rivals.
So , IMO,its not a very good revision to put Fed v Nole/Rafa on Eighties grass compared to a faster version of todays grass.
Not at all an “equalizer”.
Sampras would beat Federer more often than not on fast grass. He owned it. Virtually unbeatable. That’s a fact lol.
#EndOf
Big Al,
You’re assuming they couldn’t do it against Fed based on their game now; but, if all along the grass was quick, you think they would grow up playing this way on grass?
As far as I know, they’re way more aggressive than they’re now when they were younger; so I won’t be surprised they would rush the net more often playing on quick grass.
Rafa as a 17 yo in 2003 even tried some S&V on grass. Had the grass remained quick, one thing I know Rafa’s coach Toni would do was to get Rafa to improve his serve during his early days, bringing forward the improved serve (of 2010) to as early as 2005/2006 perhaps?
Maybe LS,but what about their development and later success on clay?Would that be affected by this more aggressive game that you think Toni should have developed? Then there’s the adjustment from clay to fast grass,very few players could ever do that successfully as you well know.
Being aggressive doesnt mean you cant win on clay – watch how Rafa played at FO2017!
In fact Rafa could be better off playing aggressive tennis on clay, grinding less and saving his body!
Rafa would still be his physically strong and powerful self whether the surfaces are quick or slow; and it’ll bode well for him to play aggressive tennis on both clay and grass as that makes the transition from one surface to the next easier thus winning the channel slam on slow clay fast grass plausible.
I really dont see any detrimental effect on Rafa or his clay court legacy had he played a more aggressive style of tennis from day one.
And, if you’ve watched Rafa played on clay in 2003, you would notice that he was very aggressive even on clay and he beat Albert Costa (ranked 7)the 2002 FO champion at MC Masters and Moya (ranked 4) the 1998 FO champion at Hamburg Masters (though he lost in the next round both times to Coria and Gaudio respectively).
He became more defensive later on as he started reaching his prime I suspect that’s because 1) the courts were slowing down and 2) he had physically reached his prime and so played the defence/offence game which was very effective on the slowed down surfaces (Djoko played a similar style too once he reached his physical peak in 2011).
But… I’ve to add, I love Rafa for using his tactical brain to solve problems out there; I certainly don’t want to see a Rafa who just plays short point tennis all the time and lost the point construction ability and not making full use of his tactical brain. To me, tennis is not only played with racket skills, but also played using the brain ( and of course good or even great footwork as well).
I would like a more offensive version of Rafa who plays a great defence/offence game but shorten points on grass and quicker surfaces.
Lucky, I agree with you about Rafa’s aggressiveness at RG2017- personally, I actually think that may have been the most truly aggressive I’ve seen him play, on any surface! It looked to me like he was stepping into the court, and going for his shots sooner, more consistently and effectively than I recall ever seeing him.
I am curious to hear your opinion, Lucky, on why you think Rafa has played the way he played on clay in 2017 with as much consistency on other court conditions. Sure, he showed some great agressiveness in Beijing and Shanghai, but it’s been quite inconsistent compared to how well he did it on clay last year.
Do you think it could be because on clay he has a little more time to wind up for his big shots, as well as a little more time to move into position for said shots, due to the relatively slower court speed? Or could it maybe be that the slightly higher bounce of the clay court makes it a little more comfortable for him to go for his shots sooner and with more authority? Or do you think that there’s no physical reason for it, and that he’s just mentally so comfortable being on a clay court? What do you think? You’ve pointed out many times how relentlessly aggressive he was on clay last year, and wondered out loud at times why Rafa wasn’t playing that way. I’m interested to hear your take on this.
Whoops! I made a big typo, Lucky! I meant to ask why you think Rafa has NOT played as consistently aggressive on the other surfaces! Wow, that one typo completely ruins the whole post haha. Please disregard it!
My vote is that it’s simply between his ears i.e., mental.
Confidence!
To me Rafa’s aggressive game can be played on any surface but what’s important is his confidence. It’s on clay that he can truly feel so confident and at ease because he grows up playing on clay.
I’m not going to talk about his earlier days as Ive said enough; but I saw in 2010 and 2013 how great he was playing on the HCs (and the quicker ones) – Montreal/ Cincy in 2013 and Tokyo in 2010, even if we want to classify the USO court as medium slow.
I personally liked his Tokyo 2010 tournament a lot, after watching the matches again, I felt I’d almost forgotten just how good he was back in 2010 on the HCs – big serve (serving 18 aces in a BO3 match), aggressive hitting, great footwork, hardly missing anything.
Who can forget his big serving at the USO in 2010, but his aggressive play at Canada/Cincy in 2013 was truly impressive, playing close to the baseline, stepping inside the court often and beating Djoko at Montreal SF, and Raonic and Isner both big server in the two finals.
I feel he was playing confidently in those two years after having great results on clay. I think he felt the same way at Beijing and Shanghai in 2017 after winning at USO but too bad he suffered an injury during Shanghai.
He was playing quite well at Wimbledon last year even without playing a warm up event, he certainly wasn’t defensive in his first three rounds; and up his level in the last three sets in R4 after losing the first two.
Exactly LS. Well said.
I remember Rafa being so happy after winning Wimbledon in 2010 talking to McEnroe about getting it done at the USO. He was beaming with confidence and he was right.
Confidence is everything and is what makes all the difference at the elite level.
But theres more to tennis than whos the best !
Thats why ive always loved the idea that we have a number of all time greats rather than one whos the great-est ever, IMO tennis doesnt merely revolve around one player and his/her achievements, its bigger than one player ….
I agree, there are many all time greats but there is a best player in every sports and tennis has a current best player today.
His name is…🤣.
Here’s a question. Which one’s more likely? Federer to win at RG or Rafa at Wimbledon
Federer to win RG is likely if he plays.
I don’t think it’s likely if Rafa is healthy
Obviously neither would be terribly likely. Practically speaking, the Fed on clay possibility would be less probable right now simply for the reason that he is unlikely to even play the clay court season. I would be surprised if he played it, and I don’t think he will. Nor do I think he should, he is old, clay is a tough surface that does not suit his game. In fact his game is probably less suited to clay than it ever has been. Points will be longer and more drawn out, he’ll be forced to defend quite a bit, and he’ll have to spend a lot of time on court. Despite Fed being no clay slouch (Correct me if wrong but I think he’s top 10 for win % at the French, 1 FO, made five finals and was only likely to be beaten by Rafa), he is probably more vulnerable now on clay than he’s ever been. Don’t forget, the
risk of injury, which is apparently more likely for Fed on clay (clay should be easier on the knees, perhaps injury is likelier mainly because of the exertion/time on court? I don’t know). The injury thing is even more of a worry as it would really harm his Wimbledon chances too. Plus, even though he’s pretty good at starting quickly with little run-up, he’d surely still have to play at least one lead-up. Again, the more he plays, the more chance of injury. At this stage in his (anyone’s) career, injuries are to be more expected than ever, and the risk would just go up the more the schedule is packed.
Hell, even if Rafa was out of the French before it started, it would be risky. There are other players who would fancy their chances over this version of Fed on clay, e.g. Wawrinka, Thiem, Djoko if he’s close to fitness. Maybe Zverev too, Chung if he could somehow recover from that mental & physical capitulation at the AO – which is a lot to ask, but I feel like Chung has a pretty good attitude, at least relative to the rest of the next-gen. If Rafa were somehow out (don’t worry Rafa fans, he will surely be there, and be favourite) Fed may be so tempted by the possibility of a 2nd FO that he would go for it. And it would really add to his resume, more than anything else right now, and even with Rafa gone. But I think it would still be a bad decision, and imo he’d still be substantially less likely to win the FO than any other slam.
Rafa at Wimbledon? Despite the poor showings and injuries during 2012 – 2015 showed last year that he can still play decent grass tennis. Problem is, big servers can hold against him too easily when he’s standing far back, and then take a free swing at his service games. On his day though, he’s still good enough to be favourite against most big servers…it’s just that he’d likely have to beat a few of them to win it, even with a good draw. And then there’s the risk of injury too, the soreness in the knees etc.
In way, the two situations kinda mirror each other, and both are pretty low percentage outcomes. I think there is very little splitting them. Rafa on grass might just be slightly more likely. Even though Fed’s not had the same early exits of 2012-2015 on clay, he hasn’t actually played the FO since 2015, so he is a bit of an unknown on the surface, at his age, and with a different approach. Rafa made it out of the first few rounds okay last year, and was beaten by a pretty good Muller, who went down to Cilic in 5.
TLDR: Nadal, because he’s at least got *some* recent form which is okay, and he’s probably going to actually play the tournament.
Nah, on grass Rafa didn’t stand way back to return serves, you got it wrong there!
Considering the fact he didn’t play any warm up event on grass last year, and still reached R4 without dropping a set, beating Khachanov (a big server and big hitter who played well vs Fed at Halle) along the way, he wasn’t playing badly. It’s because he didn’t start well against Muller who’s red hot during the grass season, had to fight hard to level the match at 2-2 and went the distance in the fifth set before losing.
As long as his knees hold up, he should be able to play well against the big servers/big hitters, as I feel his serve is better now than during 2015/2016.
Fed without playing any warm up event on clay won’t go far at the FO; after 2012, he hadn’t reached any SF at the FO even after playing warm up events on clay. I think Thiem, A Zverev or even a Stan who should be back on clay by then would pose problems for Fed even when Rafa is absent.
I wasn’t saying Rafa stood way back last time, I remember the debate on here and how he decided to stand closer to the baseline, just thought he might try and do it because he seems very comfortable with that tactic. If he’s willing to do it on a medium-fast HC, is grass that much crazier? Either way, I think it’s a bad idea.
Fed probably wouldn’t go far on clay without a warm-up yes, but if he were 1-2 seed he would probably get a couple of nice rounds to get used to the competition. In his 2015 appearance he did still get to the QF’s, lost to Wawrinka in 3 (not common) but Wawa was of course the eventual winner. Again though, I don’t think he’ll play, and I think that’s the right call.
In 2015 Fed did play a few warm ups, won Istanbul, lost to Djoko at Rome final, still couldn’t make it past the QF at FO. In 2014 and 2015 he was seeded top three and he’s younger. Fed is not going to grind on clay and then expects to still do well on grass, he’s wise enough not to take any risk last year.
I think we mostly agree here Luckystar. Fed would be silly to play the FO, even with big name players out it would not be worth the risk given Wimby is around the corner.
And Rafa is not going to stand way back to return serves on grass because the ball bounces lower on grass, so Rafa would be at a disadvantage.
True, and really he should be playing the points as short as possible anyway. I guess the other big factor for him is how the clay season goes, given the short turnaround. (1) Does he play the same schedule as last year, and (2) can he win the FO without difficult matches? I think the answer to both is probably ‘yes’, but it wouldn’t be a bad idea imo to drop a lead-up tournament, despite the points loss.
you’re right, Rafa has a good grass game. If he got a draw without many big servers of grass court specialists he has a real chance of winning Wimbledon
No matter what draw Rafa gets he can never win Wimbledon again.
TWD, I personally would love to see Fed play RG this year, without any warm-up. Sure it’s hard to put his chances really high, but you never know, and especially if he does well in the remaining HCs he would go in with a lot of confidence. If he doesn’t play clay warm-ups he would be well-rested as well.
Imo, another RG title would be worth *much* more to Fed than any other (just as, imo, another non-clay slam or even WTF would mean more for Nadal than another RG title). Even if it reduces Fed’s chances at Wimby I think it would be worth it. And if Roger is healthy, I like his odds to go deep in the tournament. Just my take.
I think you’re wrong on both counts.
Federer has intimated several times that he values more Wimbledon titles over anything else and Rafa values the French titles over any other slam. No way he’d take a non slam event over a slam of any kind. That goes I’m sure for any player at any time in history. Just ridiculous to think otherwise.
Just my take.
Olly, unfair question given the age difference .
I mean this year Big Al, what’s more likely?
I think I sort of answered it, a 37 yr old to win a Slam on clay,has got to be less likely .
Well thats it then, peoples opinions are now bona fide facts, Rafa will never win Wimbledon again lol ….
🤣😁, Alison your funny.
I have my reasons, I could be wrong but I don’t think so.
I Dont mind plausable reasoning, Nadal winning W again granted is most unlikely, however what really grates on me, is people giving an opinion and stating it out to be a bona fide fact, at the begining of 2012 us fans heard, he aint winning off clay again, err correct me if im wrong but hasnt he won the USO twice since ?, he will never be number 1 again, err hasnt he been number 1 twice since?, he will retire at the end of 2013 ,err isnt he still playing? blah, blah, blah, wrong, wrong, wrong and wrong again, so brilliant to shut a few of the naysayers up 😉
Rafa winning at Wimbledon again is not unlikely, it depends on the draw and also how he plays.
He needs to stay fit and healthy, plays aggressive short point tennis with confidence. He really needs to play warm up event to at least give him some confidence playing on grass, and I hope he doesnt adopt a wait and see attitude when playing on grass but to come out all guns blazing.
I feel he shows too much respect to guys who serve very well when he plays on grass, should just concentrate on his own serve, and tries to be clutch in TBs when he has to play them (when he couldnt break his opponent’s serve); just keeps trusting his own game and not tense up at crucial moments (he was tense and made crucial errors in the TB vs Kyrgios in 2014; he couldnt make any adjustment to his return position against Muller in the fifth set in 2017, for examples).
I am busy so I can’t write much but I am confident Rafa won’t win Wimbledon again, he just can’t even with a good draw.
He had an amazing draw in AO(2018) but couldn’t, I can’t see Rafa winning Wimbledon again, it’s close to impossible.
Stanley he has an injury during the AO, he was making it to the final most likely. Alison is right, you should have said I think he won’t win Wimbledon instead of, he won’t win Wimbledon. Personally Rafa could win it again. If he avoids big servers he has a great chance.
Olly, respectfully, you are talking to a racist and misogynist. Two examples of litterally hundreds he’s posted here. Your choice of course but I just wanted to let you know. The rest of us tend to ignore his bait.
Stanley said:
“when a terrorist murders an innocent person there motivation is found in the quran the words of muhammed & allah.”
https://tenngrand.com/non-tennis-forum/comment-page-24/#comment-269704
and…
“murdering an innocent baby in the womb is EVIL, WICKED, DEMONIC etc and those who support these BARBARIC organizations that have murdered hundreds of millions of defenceless babies are worse than Adolf hitler.”
https://tenngrand.com/2017/01/09/kyrgios-wears-f-donald-trump-shirt-following-win-nadal/comment-page-11/#comment-250364
Ricky:
Once again I’ll ask you remove these comments and to warn Hawkeye for an inappropriate post on what is supposed to be a tennis forum. I’d ask you to remove Stanley’s response on the next page as well.
I realize that it’s a big ask to monitor every instance on these pages where Hawkeye is just being a garden-variety dickhead.
But surely it’s not too much to require that totally unprovoked and gratuitous allegations or insinuations of racism, sexism, homophobia, etc. be confined to the non-tennis forum.
Again, I’d ask you to warn Hawkeye that he will be banned if he continues in this vein.
To others who agree with me: I’ll again ask you to let Ricky know that you don’t want this sort of commentary on the tennis pages of this forum; and that anyone who continues to engage in it should be banned.
I never said Rafa won’t win a title off clay, never become #1 or that he would retire at the end of 2013.
What I am saying is that Rafa won’t win Wimbledon again, I don’t think it would ever happen again of course I could be wrong but I don’t think so.
Rafa might win other GS’s but Wimbledon is highly unlikely.
Alison,
Great post! So well said! Thank you!
😀
While we are on the subject of Wimbledon. On the 2nd of July big upsets have almost always happened. 2001- Federer defeats Sampras, 2010- Berdych beats Federer, 2011- Tsonga beats Federer, 2012- Rosol defeats Nadal 2013- Stakhovsky defeats Federer, 2014- Dimitrov beats Murray, 2015- Brown defeats Rafa, 2016- Querrey defeats Djokovic 2017- started on 3rd of July
2018- first round starts on 2nd of July
Wow. Great observation!