There were two all-Big 3 Grand Slam finals in 2019, but before the next generation takes over (which appears to be a long way off still!) we seem to be in a transition period of Big 3 vs. non-Big 3 finals.
Another such installment will take center stage when Novak Djokovic and Dominic Thiem battle for the Australian Open title on Sunday night. Thiem has reached this stage at each of the last two French Opens (lost to Rafael Nadal on both occasions), while Daniil Medvedev is the other 20-something to have made a breakthrough of sorts (also lost to Nadal in the 2019 U.S. Open championship match). Djokovic continues to rack up major titles, and he has mostly done it at the expense of Nadal and Roger Federer as opposed to beating the younger crowd of Thiem, Medvedev, Alexander Zverev, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and others.
Speaking of Zverev, he and Thiem squared off in the second Aussie Open semifinal on Friday night. Experience may have made a slight difference for the fifth-ranked Austrian, whose fifth slam semifinal appearance saw him prevail 3-6, 6-4, 7-6(3), 7-6(4). Thiem preceded that result with victories over Adrian Mannarino, Alex Bolt (five sets), Taylor Fritz, Gael Monfils, and Nadal.
Djokovic has endured no tests like the ones his upcoming opponent received from Nadal and Zverev. The second-ranked Serb dropped one set to Jan-Lennard Struff in his opening match but has since reeled off consecutive straight-set defeats of Tatsuma Ito, Yoshihito Nishioka, Diego Schwartzman, Milos Raonic, and a less-than-100 percent Roger Federer.
“I’ve been feeling well,” the seven-time Aussie Open champion understated. (At) the end of the day, this is my favorite court–the court where I (have) had the most success in my career.”
Success has not been easy to come by against Thiem, who is a respectable 4-6 lifetime in the head-to-head series and an eye-popping 4-1 in their last five meetings. They faced each other three times last year, all resulting in absolute thrillers. Djokovic got the job done 7-6(2), 7-6(4) in Madrid before Thiem triumphed twice in row at Roland Garros (6-2, 3-6, 7-5, 5-7, 7-5 in the semifinals) and at the Nitto ATP Finals (6-7(5), 6-3, 7-6(5) during round-robin action). Three of Thiem’s four recent wins, however, have come on clay; Djokovic still leads 3-1 on hard courts.
“I have to risk a lot,” the 26-year-old assured. “I have to go for many shots. At the same time, of course, not too much. That’s a very thin line. In the last match against him, (I) hit that line perfectly in London. Of course (I’m) going to take a look at that match, how I played, and try to repeat it.
“But for sure he’s the favorite. I mean, he won seven titles here–never lost a final, going for his eighth one.”
As Thiem pointed out, Djokovic is an overwhelming favorite for a reason. The 16-time Grand Slam champion is the best player ever at the Australian Open and he has been the best player throughout this fortnight. Moreover, Thiem has spent seven hours and 52 minutes on court in his past two matches and he also has one less day of rest than Djokovic prior to Sunday’s festivities.
As we saw at the 2019 Nitto ATP Finals, Thiem’s peak is good enough to test and even beat Djokovic. But it is much harder to sustain that kind of level in a best-of-five situation–especially on the Serb’s Melbourne Park stomping grounds.
Pick: Djokovic in 4
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Thiem takes the 3rd set! he’s kind of following a Wawrinka blue-print in his approach. He’s started to hit the DTL backhand a bit better, after really missing it for most of the match. But even without that shot, he’s just been better from the baseline, forcing Novak to try different tactics like serve and volley and drop shots. Unless Djokovic can really lift his game here, it’s hard to see him winning this match.
Damn! Thiem has been projected has the heir apparent to rafa at rg and he is now in a position to do what even rafa has been unable to do- beat nole at ao
Well, Thiem has all the tools and he’s much younger and now hitting his peak, Rafa is off his peak now.
Thiem has his FH and BH CC and DTL shots, Rafa hasn’t a good BHDTL thus he tends to go CC with his BH; Djoko knows exactly where Rafa will be hitting to. I said before, that Rafa really needs a good BHDTL shot so that he can change direction and be less predictable.
Thiem playing like this will be another guy who will trouble Djoko a lot in the future, like the way Stan used to do to Djoko.
The match is not over yet, Djoko still has chances to fight back. For Thiem’s sake, I hope he wins this in four sets.
Vamos djoko! Take it to 5 please
Thiem asking for trouble, one poor service game and the set is over! Looks like Thiem will have a hard time now, his serve not as good as Djoko’s I feel so he’ll have a hard time holding serve in the fifth. I’m sure Djoko will now up his level. If Thiem loses this, he’ll be devastated, losing from a winning position!
Djoko – the mental beast.. a big salute after the energy sap midway through the match
Mental beast or highly deceptive?
If the guy on the other side is falling prey to deception then the mental strength of that player is to be questioned.
Djokovic does everything possible to get the victory. Comes out fast and hard hoping to steamroller his opponent for a quick and easy victory.
When he starts losing, he shortens the posts, takes injury time-outs and makes it his opponent think he has the match in the bag.
Snatches the 4th set and then goes into lock down mode, doesn’t miss a balll and starts playing like he did at the beginning.
To beat Djokovic you have to know what game he plays and don’t lose focus of it from start to finish otherwise he will pull the wool over your eyes as he has done to many of his opponents in the past.
Thiem has himself to blame for not able to hold serve in the fourth set. Looks like Djoko has this one as he’s prepared to grind for five sets to win, tired or not, knowing that Thiem may be fatigued after his QF and SF with one less day of rest.
Poor Thiem, I thought he has this one, but it looks unlikely now. Djoko with one break up is not going to give it away esp when the finishing line is near.
Theim is falling victim to Djokovic’s antics like many before him. #disappointing
Ok Thiem, may not be your time now, maybe at the USO?
You can’t beat Djoko at AO, I don’t think you can beat Rafa at the FO, so perhaps your time will come at the USO?
Not a really exciting match, more grinding than anything else with both looking lethargic.
When Djokovic tries to generate his own.pace he misses it most of the time.
You’re the man Djokovic, the master at stealing victories from your opponents through deception.
What a playaa.. esp against the hostile crowd😃
Bummed for thiem though
Why is the crowd hostile? …because they see thru his BS!
Well after all the grinding, Djoko wins the match and the AO. I don’t find him impressive, just barely scrape through to win this title.
I hope Rafa is physically ok so that he’ll get back the no.1 ranking by the clay season. Too bad for Thiem, he’s not going to beat the TOP two guys yet at their respective favourite slam. Thiem making all those errors is not going to cut it at the FO against Rafa, who will extract all the errors from Thiem’s BH.
Thiem must be feeling bad losing after leading for three and a half sets. Had he served better, the match could be his and the AO title.
Congrats to djokovic. Congrats on being world no1 again. The next gen are just not ready yet to topple the big 3. Thiem had the match in his hands and fell apart. Disappointing. As usual djokovic finds a way to win when not playing his best. Has happened so many times I’ve lost count. He really is a mental giant. Djoko handled the crowd quite well also.
It’s annoying that everyone lose against Djoko, even when he’s far from his best. I mean, come on Thiem, leading 2:1, being younger. It would have been amazing to get his 1st slam here. Would give him so much confidence… Do you think Zverev would have won it? I still believe Novak will not touch 20 slams.. He can enjoy probably last or pre last slam ever.
Unfortrunatley, there’s is much more to tennis in this day and age than just playing better tennis. Against Djokovic, gamesmanship is probably 75% of what determines the result.
If you don’t have a handle on that part of the game, you will lose at this level 9 times out of 10.
As I said, Thiem’s best chances this year will be at the USO, when all the big three will be tired after the Olympics.
Sorry to say, Thiem is disappointing esp in the fourth set; he should try his very best to hold serve no matter what when he knew he’s feeling fatigue. I mean if you lost the fourth set, you would have to play another set, how then would he win if he’s tired? All the more he should hang in tough there. Sorry to say, he’s not there yet.
Stan at age 28 was still fitter than this Thiem at age 26; Stan at AO2014 went five sets with Djoko (I mean Djoko at the AO and a younger Djoko at age 26!) to beat him, and then four sets to beat Berdych (and I think Berdych back then > Sasha now) and then beat Rafa in the final (no doubt Rafa was hampered by injury but that’s Stan’s first ever slam final and he remained mentally focused to beat Rafa to win the title).
Thiem couldn’t overcome his physical fatigue I feel, unlike Djoko who just concentrated on the match mentally focused, hung in there to win.
An opportunity missed by Thiem sadly when Djoko was lack lustre for most part of the match!
I don’t think Sasha would win either, because Djoko would simply drag it into a war of attrition; Sasha didn’t have the patience I feel.
I think Djoko can get to 20 slams if he keeps winning Wimbledon and the AO. At the AO he’s still physically in better conditions than when he’s at the USO (I doubt he would keep pushing hard to win the ATP Cup going forward when he’s getting older and older). He’ll grind his way to more AOs I feel but may start to lose at Wimbledon (he may still get to six or seven Wimbledon who knows!) so 20 slams is achievable imo.
Rafa may win another one or two FOs and maybe one more USO before he retires I feel. So both Rafa and Djoko will exceed 20 slams imo.
Are you nervous about Rg lucky? How big a threat will thiem be in your opinion?
Zero. The way he messed up here, he’ll be much worse at the French. The person I am worried about is Djoko at the French bc we know he can be very dangerous there being the only person among active players to beat him there in straight sets for that matter. But Rafa should be the overwhelming favorite as usual.
I agree with Eugene. It’s so annoying seeing everybody caving in to djokovic when he’s so beatable and allowing him to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. If you can’t beat Djoko when you are leading and the match is in your hands then please don’t waste your time and just let him beat you in straight sets. I mean, what’s the point of playing great tennis and then when you are at the finish line and the trophy is basically within your reach, then you completely fall apart. Just a complete waste of time.
Dom is going to be more than zero threat wise! Clay is easily his best surface where he has already been to 2 slam finals. I don’t want Rafa to have to play him in the quarters…
I agree that Nole is always a threat. He really lifts his game against rafa playing way more aggressive…
Amy, Djoko has always been a much greater threat at the French to Rafa than Thiem. Djoko is capable of beating Rafa at the French as he has done once in straight sets and pushed him to five sets in 2013 and was leading 4-1 in the 5th set bf Rafa went into God mode. Thiem has never come close to beating Rafa at the French and considering the way he lost this match against Djoko when he should have won it, he’s not there mentally yet.
Thiem may not reach the FO final this time because Sasha could also beat him on clay! After reaching his first SF at the AO, Sasha should be more confident now at a slam and he has the game to beat Thiem on clay (Madrid 2018).
I don’t know how Tsitsipas will play this year on clay, he lost narrowly to Stan in R4 last year in five sets, I think Tsitsipas learns fast and may go further this year at the FO.
Both of them may not only threatened Thiem but also Djoko on clay at the FO.
No, looking at Thiem now, I think he’s mentally not there. Djoko was there for the taking imo, and yet Thiem just relaxed a bit after winning the third set and then lost his serve and the fourth set. After that I knew he’s done, because Djoko would be relentless being thrown a lifeline.
Rafa on clay would be harder to beat than Djoko on the HC; and seriously Djoko was playing poorly by his standard. I feel Djoko would need a long long break after this; and Rafa could take back the no.1 ranking by the clay season.
And I feel Thiem will have to fight hard on clay against guys like Tsitsipas and Sasha and Djoko too, not making it any easy for him at the FO. Those three can beat him on clay and so he may have to go through them before meeting Rafa.
Poor Thiem, he’s collecting plates on three occasions now; he beat Rafa here but lost to Djoko in the final, he beat Djoko in the SF at the FO but lost to Rafa in the final!
I guess it’s only Stan who’s able to beat both Djoko and Rafa in a slam to win it.
Congrats to Nole fans Elizabeth and vmk! Happy for you!😀
I didn’t see any of the match but judging from the comments here Nole was nowhere near his rapacious best.
I did say I thought this would happen! Nole really brings it against rafa and fed and is much more nervy and less focused against younger players.
Nole fans? See, you’re part of the problem. You’re agenda overides honesty which makes you no different. Create a better world, dont perpetuate the problem.
What are you talking about?! I am congratulating those who support Nole, including Elizabeth who is not here right now. Nole is her favourite player! He is my second fave! Vmk always cheers for him except against rafa!
Thanks Amy, Nole is one of my favourites!
When you get to 2 sets to 1, you have to be ruthless against someone like Djokovic until the the last stroke is played. If you relax he will find a way to snatch victory from your grasp and you will be wondering what the hell just happened.
This I agree!
Djoker has not much to defend till Madrid. He can surpass Fed in most weeks as number 1. He has all Masters, WTF. If he has the most majors, he will definitely be GOAT.