There were two all-Big 3 Grand Slam finals in 2019, but before the next generation takes over (which appears to be a long way off still!) we seem to be in a transition period of Big 3 vs. non-Big 3 finals.
Another such installment will take center stage when Novak Djokovic and Dominic Thiem battle for the Australian Open title on Sunday night. Thiem has reached this stage at each of the last two French Opens (lost to Rafael Nadal on both occasions), while Daniil Medvedev is the other 20-something to have made a breakthrough of sorts (also lost to Nadal in the 2019 U.S. Open championship match). Djokovic continues to rack up major titles, and he has mostly done it at the expense of Nadal and Roger Federer as opposed to beating the younger crowd of Thiem, Medvedev, Alexander Zverev, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and others.
Speaking of Zverev, he and Thiem squared off in the second Aussie Open semifinal on Friday night. Experience may have made a slight difference for the fifth-ranked Austrian, whose fifth slam semifinal appearance saw him prevail 3-6, 6-4, 7-6(3), 7-6(4). Thiem preceded that result with victories over Adrian Mannarino, Alex Bolt (five sets), Taylor Fritz, Gael Monfils, and Nadal.
Djokovic has endured no tests like the ones his upcoming opponent received from Nadal and Zverev. The second-ranked Serb dropped one set to Jan-Lennard Struff in his opening match but has since reeled off consecutive straight-set defeats of Tatsuma Ito, Yoshihito Nishioka, Diego Schwartzman, Milos Raonic, and a less-than-100 percent Roger Federer.
“I’ve been feeling well,” the seven-time Aussie Open champion understated. (At) the end of the day, this is my favorite court–the court where I (have) had the most success in my career.”
Success has not been easy to come by against Thiem, who is a respectable 4-6 lifetime in the head-to-head series and an eye-popping 4-1 in their last five meetings. They faced each other three times last year, all resulting in absolute thrillers. Djokovic got the job done 7-6(2), 7-6(4) in Madrid before Thiem triumphed twice in row at Roland Garros (6-2, 3-6, 7-5, 5-7, 7-5 in the semifinals) and at the Nitto ATP Finals (6-7(5), 6-3, 7-6(5) during round-robin action). Three of Thiem’s four recent wins, however, have come on clay; Djokovic still leads 3-1 on hard courts.
“I have to risk a lot,” the 26-year-old assured. “I have to go for many shots. At the same time, of course, not too much. That’s a very thin line. In the last match against him, (I) hit that line perfectly in London. Of course (I’m) going to take a look at that match, how I played, and try to repeat it.
“But for sure he’s the favorite. I mean, he won seven titles here–never lost a final, going for his eighth one.”
As Thiem pointed out, Djokovic is an overwhelming favorite for a reason. The 16-time Grand Slam champion is the best player ever at the Australian Open and he has been the best player throughout this fortnight. Moreover, Thiem has spent seven hours and 52 minutes on court in his past two matches and he also has one less day of rest than Djokovic prior to Sunday’s festivities.
As we saw at the 2019 Nitto ATP Finals, Thiem’s peak is good enough to test and even beat Djokovic. But it is much harder to sustain that kind of level in a best-of-five situation–especially on the Serb’s Melbourne Park stomping grounds.
Pick: Djokovic in 4
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WHO YA GOT?
Ricky..why do u so hare Novak? For God sake, who Novak beat at his last 2 GS finals? Rafa and Roger. And u said Novak wins GS, at expense of Roger and Rafa. Accept the fact, u and all other biased western tennis writers, that NOVAK WILL BE GOAT when all big 3 finishes careers. I predict an easy win for Novak, 3 sets w 1 tb.All the best, Ricky Dimon.
Relax eech. He has to win 4 more slams. When he does 20, you can argue, nit now.
I apologize, Ricky, bad translation. You want to say that he has beaten Roger and Rafa in the GS finals. I apologize one more time.😊👍😉🤗
Dominic’s best is now good enough to beat Novak on a HC. He brought something very close to it against Rafa in QF, and was a bit under-cooked against Zverev but still prevailed. Djokovic, meanwhile, is past his best. Federer was able to dominate early in the first set, before the effects of injury set in, and fairly dominated their last two matches as well, apart from the wimby tie-breaks. That was not true 3 years ago at AO, when Djokovic’s best was pretty much unstoppable.
The key to this match will be Thiem’s ability to return the improved Djokovic serve. I think he will do it well enough to create a few break chances, which he will need to do to counter-balance the likelihood that Novak will be able to make some inroads against the Thiem serve. There will almost certainly be some tri-breakers, which both players have excelled at recently. This time, I think Thiem will come out on top. Thiem in 5.
I feel like Djokovic is in very good form right now, though obviously he might not reach the lofty heights of 2011 or 2015/2016 again.
In the first set against Fed he did look rattled, which was a little surprising. But maybe not so much when you consider the circumstances: As you say, the previous two Djokovic/Federer matches have involved a lot of aggressive play from Federer where he’s dictating the points, which isn’t always the case historically.
This time Fed was clearly hampered, and Djokovic would’ve felt confident. But Fed was still going for broke and I think he caught his opponent off guard with how effectively he threw caution to the wind. You could see that Djokovic was unable to get much rhythm and as a result made some uncharacteristic errors that probably should’ve cost him the first set. After Fed squandered his opportunities Djokovic recovered momentum, and he became increasingly comfortable as the match wore on.
I think Thiem’s best is enough to beat Djoker on HC, he has the ability to take large cuts from the back of the court like Wawrinka, which can cause problems for the Djokovic defence. If he’s going to win it will have to be pretty grueling though, and I’m a little concerned because Thiem didn’t look as sharp against Zverev and he has one less day of rest. Still, he is the younger man and one of the fittest on tour.
Djoko in 3 or 4 sets. With the world number 1 ranking on the line he’s not going to let that opportunity slip. I hope I am very wrong and thiem blows djokovic off the court with his power game
Theim’s red-line is pretty high. He played lights out when he won IW when Fed was in great form. He knows this is a good match for him and he can beat Djokovic. He’s been steadly improving on hardcourts in recent years and his youth, strength and will to win should see him prevail in a tight 4 sets to mark a new era in men’s tennis.
Djokovic hasn’t faced anyone yet that doesn’t roll over at the sight of him at the other end of the net on a hardcourt (Fed was solid until he realised he could win) and think it only takes a capable player with the belief that they can win to expose Djokovic’s vulnerability.
Theim in 4
FYI, the weather is mild tomorrow with average humidity.
Novak 3-2.
Djoko in four but Thiem has a real chance
Djoko vs Thiem – 60% vs 40% chances of winning.
Thiem should try his best to win this one, he’ll have harder task ahead at the FO and Wimbledon. If not, he has to wait until the USO when all the big shots except him will play at the Olympics to have another go at the slams (higher chances I feel as the others will probably be fatigued).
At FO he not only has to deal with Rafa most likely but also Djoko or Tsitsipas or Sasha, all of them are great on clay. Wimbledon is not his surface so the USO is his best bet.
He’s still second only to Nadal on clay,why wouldnt he beat Nole or Zverev there?
And Rafa is going to lose at RG sometime.
Hope Thiem break the curse of big 3 slams.
There is no other professional sport as uncompetitive where champions are almost eternally the few same persons.
If this remains, maybe should have a slam played by only three competitors or maybe two. The result would be the same as 128 competitors.
If you want a greater variety of slam champs I suggest you watch women’s tennis. No lack there! Including a brand new one – Sofia Kenin, born in Russia, emigrated to USA as a baby. In fact “The Russians Are Coming!” is a current theme in tennis. Russia has a very strong young trio of male players. Zverev is from a Russian family that moved to Germany. Tsitsipas and Shapovalov both have Russian roots. Of course women’s tennis has long boasted good Russian players.
Or just stick with the men a bit longer. The Big 3 will fade away in the next few years. I think.
Few more years of boredom and certain eternity then
How can you exclude Medvedev who’s a Russian from Russia? Oh, Rublev too and also Khachanov!
Let’s go Djoko! It’s going to be tight but I think Djoko will pull it off in 4
Looked like 62 61 63 in the making
Great stuff from Thiem. Djoker was on a v high level and Theim raised his game to match his
Theim’s slice backhand and variety is working beautifully tonight.
He’s just not getting enough free points yet to swing this around.
Vamos Djoko!
Wtf!! Djoko is always dialled on against rafa!! Here he is going walk about🙄🙄🙄
So Thiem pulls off a Wawrinka in set 2! That’s how I have been calling this match. His backhand DTL is a very important shot. Doesn’t have to be too close to the sideline given the pace. We know how Stan uses that shot against Novak!
I am glad to see Thiem using slices and a bit of rhythm changing backhands CC. He is thinking and not going for broke on every shot. That’s how he has matured against Novak.
I think Djoko’s been overdoing with his 2nd serve so will back down a bit until he finds himself in the lead.
Thiem NEEDS a high 1st serve %.
This will be very very physical. 5 sets is a good possibility
Also, Thiem has a good backhand volley. Should not be afraid to come in every now and then. Keep changing direction, spread the court and take the risks by coming in sometimes!
Thiem now in control of this match, two breaks up in set 3. Novak actually looks a bit old, not matching the energy or pace of Thiem. And to be honest, Novak hasn’t had a lot of tests so far in this tournament. He didn’t look great against Fed at the beginning of their match, before effects of Fed’s injury set in. And he just hasn’t looked that good tonight. He can’t be counted out, of course, but a Thiem victory in 4 would not surprise me at this point.
Yeah, and I really feel that playing the ATP cup and getting to the final really did take a lot out of Djoko and Rafa, considering their age.
Thiem otoh is six to seven years younger and very fit and he trained hard during the off season last year. If he wins here then it’s really reward for all the hard work put in.
Honestly, I dont think it was a wise decision to play ATP Cup for both these guys. Theim has played well today but Novak has really gone off the boil. I think Rafa and Novak would rather play less than come into a major tired.