There were two all-Big 3 Grand Slam finals in 2019, but before the next generation takes over (which appears to be a long way off still!) we seem to be in a transition period of Big 3 vs. non-Big 3 finals.
Another such installment will take center stage when Novak Djokovic and Dominic Thiem battle for the Australian Open title on Sunday night. Thiem has reached this stage at each of the last two French Opens (lost to Rafael Nadal on both occasions), while Daniil Medvedev is the other 20-something to have made a breakthrough of sorts (also lost to Nadal in the 2019 U.S. Open championship match). Djokovic continues to rack up major titles, and he has mostly done it at the expense of Nadal and Roger Federer as opposed to beating the younger crowd of Thiem, Medvedev, Alexander Zverev, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and others.
Speaking of Zverev, he and Thiem squared off in the second Aussie Open semifinal on Friday night. Experience may have made a slight difference for the fifth-ranked Austrian, whose fifth slam semifinal appearance saw him prevail 3-6, 6-4, 7-6(3), 7-6(4). Thiem preceded that result with victories over Adrian Mannarino, Alex Bolt (five sets), Taylor Fritz, Gael Monfils, and Nadal.
Djokovic has endured no tests like the ones his upcoming opponent received from Nadal and Zverev. The second-ranked Serb dropped one set to Jan-Lennard Struff in his opening match but has since reeled off consecutive straight-set defeats of Tatsuma Ito, Yoshihito Nishioka, Diego Schwartzman, Milos Raonic, and a less-than-100 percent Roger Federer.
“I’ve been feeling well,” the seven-time Aussie Open champion understated. (At) the end of the day, this is my favorite court–the court where I (have) had the most success in my career.”
Success has not been easy to come by against Thiem, who is a respectable 4-6 lifetime in the head-to-head series and an eye-popping 4-1 in their last five meetings. They faced each other three times last year, all resulting in absolute thrillers. Djokovic got the job done 7-6(2), 7-6(4) in Madrid before Thiem triumphed twice in row at Roland Garros (6-2, 3-6, 7-5, 5-7, 7-5 in the semifinals) and at the Nitto ATP Finals (6-7(5), 6-3, 7-6(5) during round-robin action). Three of Thiem’s four recent wins, however, have come on clay; Djokovic still leads 3-1 on hard courts.
“I have to risk a lot,” the 26-year-old assured. “I have to go for many shots. At the same time, of course, not too much. That’s a very thin line. In the last match against him, (I) hit that line perfectly in London. Of course (I’m) going to take a look at that match, how I played, and try to repeat it.
“But for sure he’s the favorite. I mean, he won seven titles here–never lost a final, going for his eighth one.”
As Thiem pointed out, Djokovic is an overwhelming favorite for a reason. The 16-time Grand Slam champion is the best player ever at the Australian Open and he has been the best player throughout this fortnight. Moreover, Thiem has spent seven hours and 52 minutes on court in his past two matches and he also has one less day of rest than Djokovic prior to Sunday’s festivities.
As we saw at the 2019 Nitto ATP Finals, Thiem’s peak is good enough to test and even beat Djokovic. But it is much harder to sustain that kind of level in a best-of-five situation–especially on the Serb’s Melbourne Park stomping grounds.
Pick: Djokovic in 4
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