There were two all-Big 3 Grand Slam finals in 2019, but before the next generation takes over (which appears to be a long way off still!) we seem to be in a transition period of Big 3 vs. non-Big 3 finals.
Another such installment will take center stage when Novak Djokovic and Dominic Thiem battle for the Australian Open title on Sunday night. Thiem has reached this stage at each of the last two French Opens (lost to Rafael Nadal on both occasions), while Daniil Medvedev is the other 20-something to have made a breakthrough of sorts (also lost to Nadal in the 2019 U.S. Open championship match). Djokovic continues to rack up major titles, and he has mostly done it at the expense of Nadal and Roger Federer as opposed to beating the younger crowd of Thiem, Medvedev, Alexander Zverev, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and others.
Speaking of Zverev, he and Thiem squared off in the second Aussie Open semifinal on Friday night. Experience may have made a slight difference for the fifth-ranked Austrian, whose fifth slam semifinal appearance saw him prevail 3-6, 6-4, 7-6(3), 7-6(4). Thiem preceded that result with victories over Adrian Mannarino, Alex Bolt (five sets), Taylor Fritz, Gael Monfils, and Nadal.
Djokovic has endured no tests like the ones his upcoming opponent received from Nadal and Zverev. The second-ranked Serb dropped one set to Jan-Lennard Struff in his opening match but has since reeled off consecutive straight-set defeats of Tatsuma Ito, Yoshihito Nishioka, Diego Schwartzman, Milos Raonic, and a less-than-100 percent Roger Federer.
“I’ve been feeling well,” the seven-time Aussie Open champion understated. (At) the end of the day, this is my favorite court–the court where I (have) had the most success in my career.”
Success has not been easy to come by against Thiem, who is a respectable 4-6 lifetime in the head-to-head series and an eye-popping 4-1 in their last five meetings. They faced each other three times last year, all resulting in absolute thrillers. Djokovic got the job done 7-6(2), 7-6(4) in Madrid before Thiem triumphed twice in row at Roland Garros (6-2, 3-6, 7-5, 5-7, 7-5 in the semifinals) and at the Nitto ATP Finals (6-7(5), 6-3, 7-6(5) during round-robin action). Three of Thiem’s four recent wins, however, have come on clay; Djokovic still leads 3-1 on hard courts.
“I have to risk a lot,” the 26-year-old assured. “I have to go for many shots. At the same time, of course, not too much. That’s a very thin line. In the last match against him, (I) hit that line perfectly in London. Of course (I’m) going to take a look at that match, how I played, and try to repeat it.
“But for sure he’s the favorite. I mean, he won seven titles here–never lost a final, going for his eighth one.”
As Thiem pointed out, Djokovic is an overwhelming favorite for a reason. The 16-time Grand Slam champion is the best player ever at the Australian Open and he has been the best player throughout this fortnight. Moreover, Thiem has spent seven hours and 52 minutes on court in his past two matches and he also has one less day of rest than Djokovic prior to Sunday’s festivities.
As we saw at the 2019 Nitto ATP Finals, Thiem’s peak is good enough to test and even beat Djokovic. But it is much harder to sustain that kind of level in a best-of-five situation–especially on the Serb’s Melbourne Park stomping grounds.
Pick: Djokovic in 4
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Ok I read comments on other sites. Everyone says it was a poor match quality wise with Nole playing badly.
That doesn’t reflect well on Dom’s ability to win big matches.
Oh and there is absolutely no way he would play poorly against rafa and fed!!
This reinforces lucky ‘s position against Happy that Meddy not Dom is the bigger threat on hard courts in the long run…
Sorry Amy I respectfully disagree. Medvedev would have messed up just like Thiem. It seems to be everyone’s motto to mess up against Djoko when he’s so beatable. Med has never beaten Djoko in a slam. Best of 5 is different to best of three. Medvedev couldn’t even beat Stan, forget djokovic. It would have been the same story imho. I would love for him to beat djoko but this has happened too many times that is a miracle if Djoko loses a match in a slam these days except at the French.
Happy, HC doesnt only mean the AO, Djoko is very much beatable at the USO and Meddy is a bigger threat at the USO than at the AO, as the court there suits his game more than at the AO. Don’t just think about the AO, the USO is also played on HC.
Miracle? Didn’t Djoko lose in R4 at the USO last year?
He lost bc apparently he was “injured”-whatever that means. That’s what he claims which I don’t buy. The real reason he lost is bc of his Achilles heel- STAN.
True Amy, Rafa played better at the USO final last year than Djoko at the AO final this year, yet Meddy could push Rafa to the limit there. Thiem should’ve won in four sets this final yet he let it slipped away all because he served poorly one game to lose serve in the fourth set. A Meddy playing like his USO final last year would’ve beaten this Djoko imo and would not let the two sets to one advantage slipped away.
Meddy’s best HC level > Thiem’s best on the HC!
Luckystar, respectfully with regards to that US OPEN final, it was rafa that messed up tremendously and ALLOWED Medvedev into the match. Why is everyone forgetting that? Rafa had no business allowing that match to get to even the 4th set let alone the 5th set. He should have won in straight sets. There is absolutely no excuse. Medvedev did not play lights out to take it to 5th set, rafa was two sets up and a break in the 3rd set and then as he often does he became nervous and started playing badly and his serve went AWOL and he allowed medvedev back into the match. Rafa often does this when serving for a set or the match, he almost always gets broken.
Even in the 5th set, 5-2 up,again the nerves kick in, his serve goes AWOL as usual, and he ALLOWS medvedev back into the match AGAIN.
I remember Sanju out of anger and frustration saying after rafa lost the 4th set, that if rafa loses that match, he will never forgive him. We rafans all felt like that. So why are we acting as if medvedev was on fire and rafa had no answers and was hopeless when RAFA should have won in straight sets? Rafa should have won in straight sets regardless of Medvedev’s level imho.
Until medvedev actually beats djokovic at the US OPEN, it’s hypothetical to suggest that he will. Especially since everybody except STAN these days seems to cave in to djokovic even when he’s playing badly.
Please don’t kill me, this is just my humble opinion. I say this respectfully, Please I’m not being rude.
You see, whether it’s Rafa’s mistake or not, you can’t deny that Meddy played very well the third to the fifth sets. It’s not like Rafa was playing badly but rather Meddy took it to him.
And, Rafa at USO played better than Rafa at this AO QF! Rafa played better in R4 vs Kyrgios and that match probably took a lot out of Rafa, given that Rafa had already played so much lately. Despite that, Rafa had his chances in all three sets against Thiem and had he played a little better could have won in straight sets.
Meddy has better chances vs Djoko at the USO than at the AO, my opinion. Djoko not as dominant at the USO despite getting to the final 8 times, winning 3 out of 8, below 50%, whilst Rafa won 4 out of 5 finals ie 80% success rate.
Is Cilic the last first time winner to win a slam during this big three era? Cilic back then in 2014 USO was 25 almost 26 years old and he was on fire beating Fed (then no.2 player) in straight sets in the SF. At least Cilic won a slam in his first slam final (like Delpo and Stan) before losing his next two slam finals (to Fed Wimbledon 2017 and AO2018). Delpo made his second final and lost to Djoko (USO 2018), and Stan after winning three slams lost his fourth final to Rafa at the FO2017.
I see they (Stan, Delpo and Cilic) are losing to the big three in the finals, and had to beat at least one of the big three to win their slam(s).
Thiem and company are not there yet, not even able to beat the big three (who are past their prime) to win a slam. They can’t even beat the trio who are so much older than them!
I feel that maybe I am coming across as being disrespectful to Dom. Apologies if so! He is a very nice guy with a great work ethic…
Djoko’s level wasn’t great especially in Set 2 and late Set 3 but he was able to bring out his best on the big points (also his serve helped him out as through the tournament). Partly Thiem crumbled but Djoko also raised his level in the fifth and didnt give away any free points. Great stuff Djoko, number 17! Onto being the GOAT.
The either thing most people don’t see (as they are mostly Rafa and Fed fans) is how hard it is to play with the crowd against you. Especially when you are one of the three legends of this era. It happened again today but Nole is so mentally strong. Rafa had to face that in the ATP cup (against Djoko) when the Serbian heavy crowd was against him and he was getting quite frustrated. Kudos to Nole for being such a great champions against all odds. Amazing and motivating.
Separately, I think Thiem definitely has a shot at the French the way he is playing this year, running Novak to 5 sets at AO is in itself a great achievement and bodes well for his future.
I though it was a good effort from Thiem, few would’ve been shocked if he went down only taking one set.
He did mentally crack and let Djokovic back in, but his overall level was still strong and he never stopped trying. I think at the end he just went a bit sloppy and didn’t force Novak to play enough (Novak was still a little nervous), but he’ll learn from that.
Also, you have to factor in that Djokovic kind of let the third set lapse, much the way he let an almost un-saveable set go last year at Wimbledon against Federer. It’s a tactical thing that you won’t see Nadal do, but some other players will.
I still think Thiem is easily the #2 favourite at the FO at this stage. Remember that the difference between hardcourt and clay is huge – not just for Rafa but also for Thiem. He will be much more comfortable against Djokovic at the FO if he faces him there, I could see him beating him in 3-4 again.
Tsitsipas or Wawrinka might make a run at things, but for me they are still FO outsiders at this point in the year. One his yet to really prove himself, and the other has been AWOL until quite recently.
Thiem’s game has come on leaps and bounds in the last 18 months and I won’t be at all surprised to see him facing off against Nadal once more.
Djoko really played strictly average…he was there for the taking and thiem let him off..whether it was nerves or just fatigue i dont know..however i think expecting djoko to dominate the year,that won’t happen..if he has to face say kyrgios ,thiem in qf..you think he would have survived with ease ? he was a little lucky with the draw here to face no one till qf and then a compromised fed in sf..so i think its game on for the rest 3 slams..and no rafa is not a lock for french too..anything can happen…the draw will be key there as to which side thiem falls in..
I can’t understand why was crowd against djoko here too..he has won this 8 times ..
Big 3 have to be lucky. Rafa had an easy USO 2017, also he was lucky in a way that Djoker took a loot out of Theim in RG SF.
Big 3 have become old but they would still have more will to win. Today Djoker willed to win.
One weird stat – Its the first time either of big 3 had to come from 2 sets to 1 down in major final to win it.
But Rafa played well to win; Djoko didn’t here at the AO. Djoko was pretty average; can’t say Rafa was average at USO2017 or 2019. Rafa had to beat Delpo in the SF in 2017 before getting to the final, and Meddy in the final in 2019, who was the red hot player then.
I don’t call Rafa lucky at the FO, and at all times that he won at the FO, he played his best tennis in the finals, unlike Djoko here.
I completely agree. Rafa is the best clay court player ever for a reason. Luck has nothing to do with him winning the french open. If he plays his best he is arguably unbeatable regardless of who is his opponent.
How I wish rafa will play this year’s french open the way he did at 2017. It was such a pleasure watching rafa in Godmode at the 2017 french open. He was serving and baking bagels and breadsticks and baguettes at will throughout the tournament. Gosh, I miss that rafa. He was simply incredible.
Agree about the draw, it’s as if it’s destined that Djoko will win this AO and so gets eight titles at a slam just like Fed (at Wimbledon). His draw becomes a joke once Tsitsipas and Agut lost early and no matter how average he played, he still could grind his way through to get the title, what more can we say?
He’s a great champion whether he plays average at times or not, for when his game is on its scarily good.
I would say, Thiem is not in the league of the big three, and I would even say he’s at least half a level below the level of Delpo, Cilic and Stan during their heydays, not forgetting those three beat the big three when they’re close to their best.
Ofcourse rg is a good 3.5 months away..lot can happen in 3.5 months .we know last year what happ..rafa was down till Madrid..then suddenly switched .so we can’t say anything now about RG…i just hope rafa somehow gets to 20 at french n 21 sumwhere else
Rafa needs to play less! He played less after Wimbledon till USO. Won everything. He needs to follow the same now. He played way too many matches in ATP Cup. He should skip Acapulco and Miami as he has not much to defend there.
Exactly .this is what irritates me most..Davis cup last year..atp cup this year..laver cup..cut all this crap seriously ..put yourself over others n country except at olympics .Davis n atp really doesn’t matter
I read that Moya and his team tried to stop Rafa from playing the ATP Cup but it’s Rafa’s decision to play. Well I hope Rafa learns his lesson, he’s no longer that young anymore, and HCs not his fave surface unlike Djoko, so all the more he needs to just concentrate on the important events and skip the not so important ones.
I hope rafa skips everything and plays Indian wells and Miami only and then prepares for clay season. I don’t know why rafa never listens and he keeps overplaying time and again and then gets injured. He did it in 2017, 2019 with that LAVER cup and all the other cups. Sometimes I wish uncle toni comes back and really disciplines rafa for these foolish mistakes he makes that always leads to injuries. Uncle toni I think is the only person he respects and can deal with him when he’s being stubborn.
I won’t be surprised if he decides to play everything under the sun again and then gets injured again. Somebody needs to talk some sense into him. His health and fitness is the most important thing not pleasing his country or fed with regards to that Laver cup.
How many weeks does rafa have at no.1 now. Djoko in all probability will not let no.1 go until wimbledon considering how little he has to defend. Is he set to surpass roger by the time the us summer swing starts?
Nope, he’s 35 weeks short of Fed’s 308 weeks so no, he won’t surpass Fed’s until probably after the USO.
Djoko has lots of points to defend from clay to Wimbledon, ie 4500 points (4635 including IW and Miami). Rafa has 5025 points from IW to Wimbledon, but Rafa could gain points at MC, Barcelona or Madrid.
I expect Rafa to regain no. 1 during the clay season – to me Rafa winning at FO > Djoko winning at Wimbledon, esp if Fed prepares himself for one last push at Wimbledon this year (he may skip clay, who knows).
Rafa has 208 weeks as no. 1 exactly 100 weeks short of Fed’s.
Oh, Sanju is correct, Rafa has 210 weeks at no. 1 (got to include these two weeks at the slams).
Rafa has 210 weeks at no 1..
Djoko will likely cross fed but can’t be sure ..
Fed has 310 right..djoko has 275..so 35 weeks means around 8 more months..i think he will surpass it..but fed has predicted there will be 3 no1 this year..god knows who he thinks is third
So Fed is at 310, Djoko at 275 and Rafa at 210.
Rafa with all his injuries still gets to 210 weeks, not bad at all. I just hope he regains the no.1 this year and adds some more weeks to that. I guess both Djoko and Rafa could draw nearer to Fed’s 310 weeks at no.1, as I agree with Sanju, that Djoko won’t dominate so Rafa would have his chances to get back to no.1 and winning slams.
Lucky .rg getting roof this year .that may have it’s say..god knows how indoor clay plays as paris weather is really awry
Oh no! Now I’m really worried. I don’t know if rafa is as good indoors as he is outdoors on clay. I hope he can adapt to whatever conditions indoors cause who knows if he faces thiem in the semifinal or djoko in the final and it starts raining heavily.
Rafa won’t play at Miami as MC is only one week away this year (Olympic year so the calendar is affected). Rafa will play at Acapulco and then IW.
I agree Djoko looks beatable, so no he won’t be as dominant as before. He lost at Shanghai last year and then lost to Fed and Thiem at WTF, not to mention losing to Meddy at Cincy and to Stan at USO. To me he’s pushing hard to gain points at ATP Cup so that he could catch Rafa for the no.1 ranking. I guess he’s running on fumes by now and so don’t expect him to do well at IW/Miami.
He also has a boat load of points to defend on clay and Wimbledon so he may lose points if he couldn’t defend them. Rafa otoh has chances to gain points at MC, Barcelona and Madrid, having reached SFs only in those three events last year.
Not indoor, because the roof is unlike AO or the others, with openings on all sides to allow in the wind. It’s not fully indoor conditions.
Anyway why are you people so afraid of the roof? Please, Rafa can win on clay, roof or no roof! Keeping away the rain is better for Rafa, as there’ll be no wet clay affecting the bounce of the ball.
Does ball bounce as high on clay under roof too ? I thought it needs sun for high bounce n fh pop
Great players can win roof or no roof, rain, hail or shine.
We’re in February and already speculating about the roof at RG affecting Rafas chances, get a grip.
Id like to add something here. I totally commiserate with all fans when their favourite loses, even Im not a fan of them. Its so painful . I felt for Theim , was rooting slightly for Djoko, but would have been happy either way. You can have a balanced view of things and still have your favourite player, if that makes sense.
Djoko could be setting up for another monster year… not unlike his 2015 or 2011. He has been terrific on his serve and today he was feeling low on energy and still managed to come out on top. He is unbeaten this year and already has notched up routine wins over his fellow goats.. will be interesting to see how he goes. He reiterated the fact that we wants to beat rogers record of no.1 and grand slams
Its setup pretty nicely. But I think even though Djoker has won what 5 slams after his comeback, I still think he is beatable.
His mid match lapses have become much more prominent, he has improved serve, but he is less offensive now more of a grinder and thats why he is nowhere as consistent as he was before. Look at Djoker in hard court Masters 1000, he loses a lot these days. He used to be untouchable in his prime in IW and Miami, and someone needed to play a real good match to stretch him.
Not as easy as it seems vmk1. He is winning but surely looking very beatable..infact after last ao..he has played just average all season..he won wimby as fed choked..plain n simple..today thiem choked..
Djoko has said he wants to end with highest slams and highest weeks at no 1 within max next season as his kids are getting bigger n he needs to spend time with them, so has to reduce play post that..now that’s some clear intent made out loud
Not surprising, he seemed to be in a hurry. But, Rafa may have a say in it. Rafa has to keep himself fit and healthy, that’s the most important thing; next concentrate on winning the slams. This year there are too many distractions- ATP cup, Olympics, followed by LC and DC for Rafa. Rafa may have to concentrate on winning the FO and knowing him, the Olympics. I doubt he’s going to win many things else.
Who knows, Rafa may get to 20 slams by winning the FO, and Fed to 21 by winning Wimbledon. The USO may be won by Thiem or Medvedev (if he doesn’t play at the Olympics), everything else they and Djoko, Tsitsipas maybe, may split among themselves.
Thiem my favourite player after Fed after seeing him play years ago. Not sure about a candidate from the next gen. Tsitsi too arrogant and I still don’t get it how he managed to lose to Raonic, whose movement is poorer than Isner’s.
The ROS is poor!
One thing that did stand out to me, in comparing Thiem to Wawrinka as Novak-opponents, is that Stan’s flatter ball causes more problems for Djokovic than Thiem’s topspinny shots, even if the latter come with just as much (or more) pace. Stan also hits a flatter, harder serve; I didn’t think Thiem’s serve troubled Novak too much today.
Stan mentally tougher! After losing to the big three so often during his career, he at 28 might have decided that it’s now or never, so played very well and very determined to win his maiden slam at the AO in 2014. From then, with the belief and confidence he won another two slams in as many finals, ie 100% success rate before losing to Rafa at the FO in his fourth slam final (by then Stan was 32) – four finals in four years, not bad!
Thiem has lost three finals in three years so far, maybe he will be like Murray, loses a few slam finals before winning his first slam title?
IMO Not mentally tougher, less expectation than Thiem or Murray.He was totally overshadowed by Fed, no-one expected him to do so well.
True, that Stan actually hit flatter shots and flat harder serves than Thiem.
Stan can also hit his shots CC and DTL at will from both wings with great power, depth and precision. He’s also better than Thiem when at the net as he’s used to play in doubles in the past.
He’s a better player than Thiem I must say, even though he made his first slam final at age 28, because he spent his prime dealing with the big three or four when they’re in their prime and was able to beat them to get his slams (Djoko/Rafa at AO2014, Fed/Djoko at FO2015, Djoko at USO2016, and Murray at FO2017 even though he lost to Rafa in the final).