Australian Open expert picks continue with Day 4, when Milos Raonic faces another marquee matchup–this one with Stan Wawrinka. The Grandstand’s Ricky Dimon and Cheryl Murray preview the action and make their predictions.
Stan Wawrinka vs. (16) Milos Raonic
Ricky: This is perhaps the marquee matchup of the entire second round and both guys had to get through difficult first-rounders–on paper, at least–just to get here. Neither opener lived up to the billing. Ernests Gulbis retired against Wawrinka in the second set, while Raonic took care of Nick Kyrgios in straights. The Canadian may be in slightly superior form at the moment, but it is always tough to pick against Wawrinka Down Under. He is quite simply a force in Melbourne. Wawrinka in 5: 7-6(5), 4-6, 6-7(4), 6-4, 6-4.
Cheryl: Raonic and Wawrinka have met once before at the Australian Open. The result was a five-set battle, with the Canadian edging Stan 6-3 in the fifth. Stan holds a winning record in the head-to-head series, but Raonic won their last two encounters–most recently dispatching the Swiss in straight sets at the U.S. Open several months ago. Count on this being a real battle, with Raonic’s serve going toe-to-toe with Stan’s backhand. Wawrinka in 5: 6-4, 5-7, 7-6, 4-6, 7-5.
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Ivo Karlovic vs. (8) Kei Nishikori
Ricky: At 39 years old (40 next month), Karlovic is absolutely balling right now. The 6’11” Croat finished runner-up in Pune (and probably should have won the final against Kevin Anderson) and he played well in four-set victory over Hubert Hurkacz in round one. Unfortunately for Karlovic, this just isn’t a good matchup. Nishikori’s passing shots are as solid as they come and it’s not like Karlovic can hang at the baseline, so he has to get to the net. The Japanese world No. 9 has won three straight in the head-to-head series. Nishikori in 3: 7-6(5), 4-6, 7-6(11).
Cheryl: Nishikori and Karlovic offer plenty of interesting contrasts. Karlovic is just over one foot taller than Nishikori. The Croat is known for his monster first serve, while Nishikori is an accomplished baseliner. Of their five meetings, Nishikori has won three (though it should be noted that Karlovic won their first two encounters back in 2012 and 2013). It’s hard to imagine that the big guy will be able to serve well enough to get past Nishikori in a best-of-five match, but there’s sure to be at least a tiebreak or two. Nishikori in 4: 7-6, 6-4, 6-7, 7-5.
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(32) Philipp Kohlschreiber vs. Joao Sousa
Ricky: Sousa vs. Guido Pella had five-set slugfest written all over it and it did not disappoint, with Sousa getting the job done in five. Kohlschreiber, on the other hand, got perhaps the best draw anyone in the field could have asked for and trounced Chinese wild card Zhe Li 6-2, 6-2, 6-4. A five-setter in Melbourne heat may be a concern for some…but not for Sousa. The Portuguese world No. 44 is just about as first as any player on tour. He is also 2-0 lifetime against Kohlschreiber on hard courts (2-2 overall). Sousa in 5: 6-3, 5-7, 7-5, 2-6, 6-3.
Cheryl: Thus far, this has been a competitive matchup. Kohlschreiber and Sousa have split wins with two wins apiece, although Kohli has won the two most recent. Sousa comes into this second round match off a blistering four-hour affair in the first round over Pella. By contrast, Kohlschreiber had an easy straight-set win on Monday. Look for the German to try exploiting any lingering fatigue. Kohlschreiber in 4: 7-5, 6-4, 2-6, 6-3.
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Ryan Harrison vs. (15) Daniil Medvedev
Ricky: This may not be overly competitive, but fireworks should still be expected. You can just tell these are two guys who would not–and probably do not–like each other. Both are combustible characters who have a history of run-ins with other opponents, albeit not with each other (yet). Unfortunately for Harrison, Medvedev is one of the hottest players on tour these days. In fact, the Russian has arguably been producing top 10 kind of stuff dating back to last summer. Medvedev in 4: 6-3, 6-1, 1-6, 6-4.
Cheryl: Harrison had a routine first-round match against Vesely, but he isn’t likely to enjoy the same against his second-round opponent. Medvedev is one of a group of promising young players moving his way up the rankings. He is No. 19 in the world and he already owns a win over Harrison in the last five months (straight sets in Winston-Salem). Harrison’s ranking has been on a slow slide since 2017, and now he sits at 83rd in the world–down from a career-high of 40th. Medvedev in 3: 6-4, 6-2, 6-3.
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WWW?
Stan in 5 – hope this is a better match than their 1st rounds turned out to be Raonic is looking pretty impressive though, so I dunno.
Ivo in 5
Medvedev in 3
Sousa in 5
Haha, Kei is serve-and-volleying! And he ain’t that bad at it! I like that he’s being more aggressive in his own service games, knowing that it’s crucial that he protect his serve against Karlovic.
I know that Kei’s return prowess is recognized, however, I think it’s underrated sometimes. He just perfectly anticipated, and crushed, a return on a Karlovic 1st-serve bomb, on break point. He’s just awesome when he’s on. I think he’s a top-3 returner in the game, maybe even #2 behind Djokovic.
And he perfectly placed it right at Ivo’s feet as he attacked the net, drawing the error from Ivo to get the break. Beautiful.
Nope, Murray is better! I’ll rate him at about the same level as Rafa and Ferrer.
Fair enough. I didn’t include Murray because I consider him retired, but he was definitely top 3 at least.
I do feel Murray may be as good as Djoko in the returns category. Kei is more like a Ferrer, shorter swing and takes the ball early but not as precise as Djoko.
Both Murray and Rafa stays further back while returning, but Murray has the ability to move forward quickly once he sees the serve in play. Rafa on the other hand prefers to stay back and hits a strong return and then runs quickly behind the baseline ready to take the next shot. They all return according to their own strength; I do feel Djoko or Kei for examples, if they return from position like Rafa’s, chances are they’ll hit a weak return; you need to be quick and powerful like Rafa to return from so far back.
Nishikori Karlovic was epic!! LETS GO STAN
Stan’s gone!