Australian Open expert picks continue with Day 5, when Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer continue their campaigns. The Grandstand’s Ricky Dimon and Cheryl Murray preview the action and make their predictions.
(27) Alex De Minaur vs. (2) Rafael Nadal
Ricky: Nadal arrived in Melbourne with a ton of question marks, especially on hard courts. De Minaur went into the season’s first slam on the strength of a Sydney title. Fast forward through two rounds, however, and everything has changed. Nadal showed no signs of injury issues in two mostly dominant performances, while de Minaur is coming off an energy-sapping five-setter against Henri Laaksonen. It’s been another great Australian summer for the 19-year-old Aussie, but it will come to an end in a big way on Friday. Nadal in 3: 6-3, 6-3, 6-3.
Cheryl: When the draw was first revealed, I thought this match might be Nadal’s first challenge of the fortnight. However, de Minaur’s struggle against world No. 166 Henri Laaksonen has left me in some doubt of de Minaur’s ability to stick with the heavy physicality of Nadal’s game. The Spanish world No. 2 has had an ideal first week, with routine straight-set wins over his first two opponents. This should be a straight-forward affair for the Spaniard. Nadal in 3: 6-4, 6-2, 6-1.
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Taylor Fritz vs. (3) Roger Federer
Ricky: Wednesday was an absolute banner day for young Americans Fritz (ousted Gael Monfils in a four-set thriller) and Frances Tiafoe (upset Kevin Anderson in four). Tiafoe’s reward is a favorable draw against Andreas Seppi, whereas Fritz has to face Federer. This won’t put any damper on Fritz’s overall tournament, but Friday is not going to end well for him. The youngster has to be low on energy; Federer–the two-time defending AO champion, has cruised through two rounds. Federer in 3: 6-2, 7-5, 6-4.
Cheryl: Federer is the odds makers’ second favorite to take the Aussie Open title. The Swiss has taken care of business fairly efficiently during the first week of play, despite a more-competitive-than-expected outing against bad boy Briton Daniel Evans, who pushed Federer to two tiebreak sets. As this is the first time Fritz has ever advanced past the first round in Melbourne, it would not be unexpected if the moment–playing on the big stage against the tour’s most popular player–got the better of him. Federer in 3: 6-1, 6-3, 6-4.
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(6) Marin Cilic vs. (26) Fernando Verdasco
Ricky: Cilic has already passed two tests in impressive fashion, disposing of Bernard Tomic in easy straights and holding off tough customer Mackenzie McDonald in four. Verdasco has capitalized on a routine draw, but this is where the favorable road ends. The veteran Spaniard has lost four in a row to Cilic, is 1-7 in their last eight overall, and has dropped six consecutive sets. Moreover, the Croat finished runner-up Down Under last year. This has all the makings of one-way traffic. Cilic in 3: 6-3, 7-6(4), 6-3.
Cheryl: Cilic and Verdasco are no strangers to each other. This will be the 15th meeting between the two tour veterans. The bad news for the Spaniard is that Cilic not only holds a 9-5 advantage over the Spaniard, he has won their last four meetings, two of which came in 2018. Cilic is younger, with a bigger serve and heavier groundstrokes. Unless the Croat has a really off night, this will be the end of Verdasco’s 2019 Australian Open campaign. Cilic in 3: 6-4, 7-5, 6-3.
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Frances Tiafoe vs. Andreas Seppi
Ricky: It has to be said that Seppi in the third round of a Grand Slam is an amazing draw. At the same time, though, Seppi is also just so, so tough–especially in Melbourne. The veteran Italian has reached the fourth round four times and stunned Federer in 2015. In fine form at 34 years old and 35th in the rankings, Seppi finished runner-up in Sydney and has replenished his reserves by making quick work of Steve Johnson and Jordan Thompson. Seppi in 4: 5-7, 6-4, 6-3, 6-4.
Cheryl: Tiafoe and Seppi is one of the more intriguing matches on a day already filled with good matchups. America’s Tiafoe has what is likely the upset of the tournament so far, with a shocker 2nd round victory over the No. 5 seed Kevin Anderson. The American had a dreadful fall swing, with a series of first round defeats, though he seems to have righted the ship during the off season. Seppi, the veteran Italian, took out Tiafoe’s countryman Steve Johnson in the first round. The Italian is playing well this week and has far more experience in big match play than his opponent. Seppi in 4: 7-5, 4-6, 6-3, 6-3.
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I like how Federer said in his post-match interview, when asked about Rafa vs. De Minaur:
“De Minaur is great, but I still have to with Rafa because… he’s RAFA, and I love the guy!”
The Fedal “bromance” always makes me laugh. 🙂
Yes, they are fond of each other, rather amazing given how often they demolish the other’s dreams. In that documentary they did on the Wimbledon 08 final, Federer said he considered it the worst day of his life. That is not something easily overcome.
Neither of them take wins/losses personally. Most of the guys out there these days don’t. They’re very professional. It was the worst day of Fed’s tennis life but they met at the net and walked off the court with arms wrapped about each other’s waists. And, really, if that’s the worst day of your life you got a pretty good life there. I am quite certain that Rafa would not rate his AO final loss to Djokovic as the worst day of his life. Nowhere close.
Yeah Kevin!….LONG LIVE FEDAL BROMANCE!!…And other bromance as well!…
I am watching my recording of Rafa’s match. These AO matches with the time difference are challenging for those of us in the states.
I am midway through the second set and as I expected, Rafa was ready. He is looking extremely good and that DTL forehand has been brilliant. De Minaur did his best and he has the game to do well in the figure, butbte was outclassed today.
I woke up a few times and saw that Rafa won the first set easily. Then I saw the end as he again struggled to close out the match. That seems to be from lack of match play.
Rafa is healthy and that is the best thing. He is moving better in every match, speed picking up. It is a joy to see him back playing and looking great.
Berdy is next and Rafa knows what to expect. No surprises there.
De Minaur has the game to do well in the FUTURE. *
TBH Ive never wanted Rafa to be overly friendly with his rivals, in fact it annoys the hell out of me when he is, buisness like handshakes are fine, but thats where i want it to stop, respect each other fine but leave it there, prefer annymosity and hatred which brings spice to their contests on court, like Sharapovas attitude im not in this to make friends, im in this to win titles, no high fives in the shower get in and out as quick as possible AMEN to that !
`no high fives in the shower get in and out as quick as possible AMEN to that !´
That does not sound right.
Plenty to improve for Rafa. The scoreline is a bit misleading in my opinion.
In summary, the positives in my view were:
-forehand DTL working well, even under pressure. The final hold was cool!
-flat first serves. Rafa’s hitting stronger first serves and he is hitting the spot on the deuce court to attack righty’s forehand.
-The movement! Rafa’s defending great and at 32 and injury after injury, his footwork to run arounf that forehand is INCREDIBLE.
Negatives/development points:
– too much net clearance on the backhand. Rafa’s been holding back and hitting too many central and loopy shots. The CC backhand haa also not been firing consistently enough and this will be exposed going forward if he doesn’t address.
-I feel the new service motion has been a bit disappointing for me so far as I had higher hopes. The serves don’t feel as heavy, esp the second serves! I hope he can overcome this with confidence.
I would also like to see Rafa counter punching more aggresively off both wings. His ROS will only get better as he gains more confidence.
Thanks for the input, VR! Always interesting. I believe Rafa mentioned something about wanting to improve his 2h backhand – I’ve noticed him running around it to hit his FH a bit more often than he has been for the last two years. The AO court and new balls this year don’t take his topspin all that well so he has to adjust. It’s better in the day, but semis and final will be night matches. I think his first serve has been working very well but so far he has not gone up against great returners.
Hi VR,
The problem with Rafa is that we hardly could see him playing with all his weapons firing very well at the same time!
When his serve is great, his returns is so so; when his FH is unbelievable, his BH has problems; when his BH becomes lethal, his FH misfires! Just imagine, if all of them are working great, how invincible he would be!
I’ve seen both Fed and Djoko playing with all their weapons working well at the same time, and so they’re almost unbeatable; but I’ve not seen Rafa playing this way yet, except maybe once at FO (in 2017).
Maybe USO2010, when he’s almost perfect – serve, returns, FH, BH but he hardly approached the net so his volleying skills not on display.
I find that Rafa better than his AO2009 self, as he’s more attacking than defending, and had not spent too much time on court.
So you think he can go far VR ?
Lovely to see you here vr!!! I haven’t been able to watch any tennis yet. I had very high hopes for Rafa’s new serve…is it possible he simply isn’t in the groove yet? What do others ie nny and lucky ( or anyone else) think? Some people are saying here his second serve has dropped off again, is that really so?
I felt like I saw some good crushing bhs yesterday too n few winners too
The three ATGs have beaten three up and comers rather comfortably (Djoko is about to beat Shapo in straight sets); De Minaur imo played the best among the three youngsters – he’s so quick and with the least weapons, he worked so hard and fought so hard until the last point. Fritz is a bit one dimensional, with a big serve but couldn’t move well; Shapo has all the weapons but yet to find the balance and precision of his shots, tends to go for broke.
I do feel that Tsitsipas and Medvedev in R4 for Fed and Djoko respectively, may offer better challenges.
Spoke too soon, Shapo manages to win a set now, lets see how the match goes from here.
Rafa’s BH is a problem so far. Serve is better and he is not broken in last two matches. FH has been very good. His volleys are tentative and so is his drop shot. These two could be attributed due to lack of match play.
Tomorrow is a tough one for Rafa even more difficult than his potential QF with Tiafoe/Dimitrov. If he does well tomorrow , he should feel very confident.
First set will be the key as Berdych is serving well. Berdych is always a threat at AO.
Warning signs you mean ? Sniff an upset ?
N btw where did that stellar dropshot of wimby disappear…that was a thing of beauty…it just disappeared like feds sabr.
vr,
Great to read your analysis of what is working well and not working in Rafa’s game. I have been pleasantly surprised overall at how well he is playing, given how long he has been out of action and the lack of match play leading up to the AO.
It is strange that the backhand is not as good as it was last year. I noted the brilliance of his DTL forehand, the shot they was killing De Minaur. I also pointed out his improved movement. I am not sure what to make of the serve. So far Rafa has not been broken, but he has not faced a really good returner. ESPN mentioned some serves stats that were good. Rafa needs a serve that can stand up under the pressure of someone like Novak. That serve cost him the Wimbledon semifinal. Maybe he needs more time with the new serve.
De Minaur was the first test and Rafa handier it well. De Minaur was out of his depth and not sure how to play Rafa. The big key is that Rafa looks healthy. But Berdy will be the first real test for him. I did not know how well he is playing since he has come back, but he always had the game to challenge Rafa. He just never had Rafa’s mental strength. This should be a good match. I think Rafa will raise his level of play. He has done that in every match. I said that if he gets through the early matches in the first week, he could be dangerous.
Hi NNY,
Agree with you. To me Rafa’s serving is now not only important for facing Novak but also for facing Roger! People have made it all about Fed’s improved backhand to be the reason for the turnaround he’s had against Rafa but I believe it was his improved ROS.
I am not worried about Rafa’s net game or lack of drop shots. These things have never been a part of Rafa’s Tier-1 arsenal and they only kick in when he gains confidence. I also think he has been trying to strengthen the basics and will shift gears against Berdych.