ATP Cup final previews and predictions: Bautista Agut vs. Lajovic, Nadal vs. Djokovic

The inaugural ATP Cup final will be headlined by a showdown between Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic. Sunday’s action in Sydney begins with Roberto Bautista Agut of Spain facing Serbia’s Dusan Lajovic.

Roberto Bautista Agut (ESP) vs. Dusan Lajovic (SRB)


Bautista Agut has been an absolute hero for Spain over the last two team competitions. He helped his country capture the 2019 Davis Cup title and now the Spaniards find themselves in the ATP Cup final thanks in part to Bautista Agut’s perfect 5-0 record. The world No. 10 was especially impressive during a 6-1, 6-4 beatdown of Nick Kyrgios on Saturday night.

Up next for Bautista Agut is Lajovic, who is a hopeless 0-5 in the head-to-head series (0-3 at the ATP level). If there is any good news for the 34th-ranked Serb, it is that he has also been in outstanding form throughout this event. But he has mostly struggled in big Davis Cup situations for Serbia and he will be feeling a ton of pressure to deliver following his nation’s recent quarterfinal disappointment in Madrid (lost to Russia). Bautista Agut is quite simply the better player and has more experience–both quantity and quality–on this kind of stage.

Pick: Bautista Agut in 2

[crowdsignal poll=10489332]

Rafael Nadal (ESP) vs. Novak Djokovic (SRB)

Djokovic and Nadal will be facing each other for the 55th time in their careers on Sunday. The head-to-head series stands at 28-26 in favor of Djokovic, but the most telling statistic is that Nadal has not won on a hard court since the 2013 U.S. Open final. Their most recent hard-court encounter came in last year’s Australian Open title match, with Djokovic dominating 6-3, 6-2, 6-3.

There are additional reasons to like the second-ranked Serb’s chances. He is 5-0 so far at the ATP Cup, and although he needed three sets against Daniil Medvedev on Saturday his level in the decider was incredible. Nadal could be especially fatigued, as he went three sets against Alex de Minaur (a 4-6, 7-5, 6-1 victory) and worked double duty against Belgium in the quarterfinals (including a 6-4, 7-6(3) loss to David Goffin).

Pick: Djokovic in 3

[crowdsignal poll=10489330]

53 Comments on ATP Cup final previews and predictions: Bautista Agut vs. Lajovic, Nadal vs. Djokovic

    • Rafa was better at the DC than Djoko was at the ATP cup, because Rafa had to do it at year end after Paris and WTF. And, Rafa was ridiculously great at DC, beating everyone in straight sets and playing doubles so often too.

      Djoko struggled to beat Shapo and Medvedev and it’s at the start of a new year, after a year end break!

      • I agree completely and I have faith that he can replicate that performance at the Australian open and win it beating whoever including djokovic. Nothing is impossible.

        • Yeah nothing is impossible.

          Why I’m frustrated with Rafa was because he obviously had the game to counter Djoko( as shown in the second set and when his back was against the wall) but he’s so sluggish at the start that he kept dropping serve at the start of his matches, and then what followed was he having to play catch up all the time in the first set.

          Once his opponents were able to break his serve, they ran away with the set quickly because they were then full of confidence and played their best to not allow Rafa to break back. It happened in the SF and now in the final. If he started his matches by playing the way he played in set two, I doubt his opponents would break his serve that easily and he would be in for a chance to win the first set and then made things easier for himself.

          He could have saved himself some energy playing that way against De Minaur instead of having to play three sets of tennis to win. Who knows, he might then have more energy in the final. If he’s tired, it would be a daunting task to have to win his matches in three sets so often, so all the more he should come out to play more offensively from the get go to put pressure on his opponents. As I’d mentioned earlier on, his offensive game was/is great and could beat anyone.

          He’s not utilising his weapons the way he should, instead he retreated to 5 to 10 metres behind the baseline and played his clay court style defensive tennis. No wonder Goffin, De Minaur and Djoko could beat him (or almost beat him in the case of De Minaur) because he’s allowing them time to step inside the court to dictate play.

  1. I knew Feli and PCB would lose as soon as I knew Rafa wasn’t playing. Feli can’t concentrate for 5 minutes in a row and PCB needs Rafa to pull him through.

  2. Okay, first of all, congrats to Novak and team Serbia. Such a great effort!

    Now on to analyzing Djodal episode #55, there are quite a few takeaways.

    1. The way Rafa started off and how the early games transpired, it looked like the match would be over 6-2 6-3 or something. The first set was 6-2 but lasted 40 minutes. Rafa was making small in-roads but his court positioning was a lost cause, he was clueless behind second serves and unsure of his backhand patterns.

    2. Rafa was SO nervous at the start. His timing was way off, he was stepping away from the baseline, hitting very defensive slices. He was nervous because:

    -He was up against a man who had won 17 consecutive sets against him
    -He was low on energy and we all know why
    -He was playing in the worst possible conditions: cool weather not giving much aid to his forehand, 90% humidity worsening his perspiration issue and of course, indoor conditions!

    Djokovic is a bad match-up for him in multiple ways and the conditions made it even tougher.

    3. Rafa is not able to swing freely against Novak unless he is really back-against-the-wall and knows he’s be done if he doesn’t go all out. By then, it is usually late. SO many neutral balls, I could picture Rafa crushing them against other players but he can get shaky against Novak.

    4. Probably realizing it can’t go worse, Rafa, spurred on by Roig’s and RBA’s on-court advice, started thinking more and changed the patterns. He started serving better and FINALLY brought his serve and volley to the match! Surprisingly, he was then CRUISING on serve for most of set 2!

    IMPACT: DJokovic started feeling the heat. He began making errors and there was that 2-3 game where Rafa had 5 break points I think. That was Rafa’s chance but Novak served too well and Rafa couldn’t take chance of a second serve return he had.

    5. It is effective to use slices against Novak to build patterns but really depends how and when you use it. In set 1, Rafa was regressing from the baseline right away and slices from deep behind. This, combined with his nserves, his slices had too much underspin and the trajectory was too defensive. In set 2, he started slicing from the baseline, put more on it and was able to move Novak around. He uses aggressieve slicing in the USO 2013 final so that’s the perfect example.

    6. Novak’s return is INSANE. I don’t know how Rafa survived that 5-5 game in set 2 when Novak was THUMPING first and second serve returns. FInally Rafa hit the spots which were too good and held!

    7. Rafa lacked convinction in his offensive game in the crunch moments. He should have won set 2! There was a forehand DTL at 1-0 in the tie break that he netted, that backhand volley on 2-1 which he couldn’t put away.

    Rafa definitely started going for more but he can surely hit bigger forehands and backhands against Novak.

    8. Even though he lost in 2 sets, I think he’d take positives from set 2 and refine the execution of his tactics.

    9. Novak served too good. Uncharacteristically good I would say! He clocked second serves at 170s and 180s and that is because he was never put under too much pressure until Rafa had that 2-3 game in set 2! It is a different story when you are under pressure, even in your opponent’s service games. Rafa must work on creating more pressure on him right from the get go!

    Vamos Rafa, take some rest and good luck for AO! SO much also depends on the draw!

  3. (I repeat my comment I posted on the Rafa page.)

    Rafa said at his post-final press-conference: “In general terms, for me the last 10 days here, in the ATP Cup, have been positive.”

    I’m glad that he didn’t get injured at the ATP Cup and I think that playing there was a good practice to him before the AO.

    Rafa’s full press conference:

    https://youtu.be/owrfHonMNzc

    Vamos Rafa! 💪

    • Thank you Augusta. I was worried about him not playing doubles. I’m so happy he is not injured and he’s healthy. That’s the most important thing.

        • “Team decision” according to Rafa who admitted he was “low on energy” in his interview. He did look very tired.

          I think Rafa could have used more vacation over the so called year end break. All he got was a few days with his cousins and wife at Disneyland Paris. The rest of the time he’s been in training or playing Abu Dhabi. I think the thing is, he’s used to being injured at the end of the year, which is annoying but restful in a way, rehabbing, then taking a break after the AO.

  4. Congrats Djoko and team Serbia! What a beast Djokovic is, time for number 17 in AO! By the way, first time I ever saw a crowd cheer for Nole when he was playing Fed or Rafa. It was beautiful.

    • Yeah that is true.. first time djoko got the greater crowd support and he seemed as dialled in as he is when the crowd is against him… would have been interesting if he had faced fed in such an atmosphere

  5. Too bad Fed and the Swiss team didn’t play here. Fed and Stan make a good team in singles and doubles. If both are fit, they are formidable in doubles and Stan as the second man can beat most guys. Fed as no.1 can beat all except maybe Djoko so Team Swiss may have a good chance of winning the Cup.

  6. For Rafa to win Australian open 2020, he has to avoid Djokovic at any cost.Rafa doesn’t have the right tactics nor the mental state to overcome Djoker who is a beast on Australian hard courts. Too many things have to fall in place for NADAL and too many things should go wrong for Djoker. Nadal’s game feeds into Djoker’s strengths on this surface and Rafa cannot redline his game
    In a best of 5. Hoping somebody takes out Djoker before finals and I am very confident Nadal will bear Fed in best of 5 with his improved serve and overall game on hard courts. Med should take out Djoker if they are on the same half. Fed has no chance against Djoker if they are in the same half.

  7. I am not surprised by the result today. I also don’t think it was the be-all and end-all. Rafa did battle back in the second set and had his chances. I do think it was a guide thung fir him to sit out doubles and I do not think there is anything eating with him. He was carrying his team playing both singles and doubles and it was enough. No sense risking overplaying and injury before the AO. At least Rafa got match play and won’t go in cold.

    I know Novak’s record at the AO. He will go in as the favorite. But not for one minute would I say that Rafa might as well not play because he has no chance against Novak. It’s true that it would be nice if someone knocked out Novak before the final. But Rafa will focus on what he has to do. Streaks do have to end sometime. It is true that Rafa has not beaten Novak on HC since 2013. The tennis channel commies kept saying it. But I do think Rafa can beat Novak if it comes down to it. You never know what can happen. There is no such thing as a sure thing in a slam. Rafa is the closest to it at RG.

    Rafa still has his fighting spirit and I think he will work to get into his best form and peak at the right time for the AO.

    Vamos Rafa! 😀

  8. One sentence in my previous comment was totally butchered by autocorrect.

    For the record, it should have read – I do think it was a good thing for RAF to sit out the doubles and I do not think there is anything wrong with him. *

  9. dull biased fangirls in ruins :yummy: congrats Serbia for taking the trophy. Can’t wait for another dull smackdown by mighty Nole.

  10. kay, first of all, congrats to Novak and team Serbia. Such a great effort!

    Now on to analyzing Djodal episode #55, there are quite a few takeaways.

    1. The way Rafa started off and how the early games transpired, it looked like the match would be over 6-2 6-3 or something. The first set was 6-2 but lasted 40 minutes. Rafa was making small in-roads but his court positioning was a lost cause, he was clueless behind second serves and unsure of his backhand patterns.

    2. Rafa was SO nervous at the start. His timing was way off, he was stepping away from the baseline, hitting very defensive slices. He was nervous because:

    -He was up against a man who had won 17 consecutive sets against him
    -He was low on energy and we all know why
    -He was playing in the worst possible conditions: cool weather not giving much aid to his forehand, 90% humidity worsening his perspiration issue and of course, indoor conditions!

    Djokovic is a bad match-up for him in multiple ways and the conditions made it even tougher.

    3. Rafa is not able to swing freely against Novak unless he is really back-against-the-wall and knows he’s be done if he doesn’t go all out. By then, it is usually late. SO many neutral balls, I could picture Rafa crushing them against other players but he can get shaky against Novak.

    4. Probably realizing it can’t go worse, Rafa, spurred on by Roig’s and RBA’s on-court advice, started thinking more and changed the patterns. He started serving better and FINALLY brought his serve and volley to the match! Surprisingly, he was then CRUISING on serve for most of set 2!

    • CONTINUED..

      IMPACT: DJokovic started feeling the heat. He began making errors and there was that 2-3 game where Rafa had 5 break points I think. That was Rafa’s chance but Novak served too well and Rafa couldn’t take chance of a second serve return he had.

      5. It is effective to use slices against Novak to build patterns but really depends how and when you use it. In set 1, Rafa was regressing from the baseline right away and slices from deep behind. This, combined with his nserves, his slices had too much underspin and the trajectory was too defensive. In set 2, he started slicing from the baseline, put more on it and was able to move Novak around. He uses aggressieve slicing in the USO 2013 final so that’s the perfect example.

      6. Novak’s return is INSANE. I don’t know how Rafa survived that 5-5 game in set 2 when Novak was THUMPING first and second serve returns. FInally Rafa hit the spots which were too good and held!

      7. Rafa lacked convinction in his offensive game in the crunch moments. He should have won set 2! There was a forehand DTL at 1-0 in the tie break that he netted, that backhand volley on 2-1 which he couldn’t put away.

      Rafa definitely started going for more but he can surely hit bigger forehands and backhands against Novak.

      8. Even though he lost in 2 sets, I think he’d take positives from set 2 and refine the execution of his tactics.

      9. Novak served too good. Uncharacteristically good I would say! He clocked second serves at 170s and 180s and that is because he was never put under too much pressure until Rafa had that 2-3 game in set 2! It is a different story when you are under pressure, even in your opponent’s service games. Rafa must work on creating more pressure on him right from the get go!

      • MPACT: DJokovic started feeling the heat. He began making errors and there was that 2-3 game where Rafa had 5 break points I think. That was Rafa’s chance but Novak served too well and Rafa couldn’t take chance of a second serve return he had.

        5. It is effective to use slices against Novak to build patterns but really depends how and when you use it. In set 1, Rafa was regressing from the baseline right away and slices from deep behind. This, combined with his nserves, his slices had too much underspin and the trajectory was too defensive. In set 2, he started slicing from the baseline, put more on it and was able to move Novak around. He uses aggressieve slicing in the USO 2013 final so that’s the perfect example.

        6. Novak’s return is INSANE. I don’t know how Rafa survived that 5-5 game in set 2 when Novak was THUMPING first and second serve returns. FInally Rafa hit the spots which were too good and held!

        • 7. Rafa lacked convinction in his offensive game in the crunch moments. He should have won set 2! There was a forehand DTL at 1-0 in the tie break that he netted, that backhand volley on 2-1 which he couldn’t put away.

          Rafa definitely started going for more but he can surely hit bigger forehands and backhands against Novak.

          8. Even though he lost in 2 sets, I think he’d take positives from set 2 and refine the execution of his tactics.

          9. Novak served too good. Uncharacteristically good I would say! He clocked second serves at 170s and 180s and that is because he was never put under too much pressure until Rafa had that 2-3 game in set 2! It is a different story when you are under pressure, even in your opponent’s service games. Rafa must work on creating more pressure on him right from the get go!

        • 7. Rafa lacked convinction in his offensive game in the crunch moments. He should have won set 2! There was a forehand DTL at 1-0 in the tie break that he netted, that backhand volley on 2-1 which he couldn’t put away.

          Rafa definitely started going for more but he can surely hit bigger forehands and backhands against Novak.

          8. Even though he lost in 2 sets, I think he’d take positives from set 2 and refine the execution of his tactics.

          • 9.

            Novak served too good. Uncharacteristically good I would say! He clocked second serves at 170s and 180s and that is because he was never put under too much pressure until Rafa had that 2-3 game in set 2! It is a different story when you are under pressure, even in your opponent’s service games. Rafa must work on creating more pressure on him right from the get go!

          • Yeah, Rafa made far too many errors and that’s because it’s Djoko across the net; against anyone else he would’ve won the match, tired or not tired.

            Djoko seemed able to bring out the worst from Rafa, a few times during the match, Rafa had Djoko pinned to one corner while Rafa was at the net, yet he stupidly hit right back at Djoko instead of hitting to the open court at the other end, and then it was Djoko who passed Rafa at the net to win the point!

            Rafa just couldn’t think clearly when playing against Djoko on the HCs, I bet he not being able to win a single set against Djoko on the HCs since USO2013 did bother him and played in his mind when he faced Djoko across the net.

            He not being able to take advantage of Djoko’s second serve is also a sign of him not being confident, so he’s unsure which way Djoko’s shot would come back to him.

            I do believe if he approached the match like the way he did at Rome last year, he would give himself a higher chance of winning the match. The Rafa at Rome last year was very determined to beat Djoko at all cost, came out all guns blazing. Who knows, if Rafa could do that on the HCs against Djoko, Djoko might be taken aback and would be busy defending and might not be able to impose his game on Rafa the way he would want to.

    • So, Rafa was nervous against Djoko, that proved the point that Djoko is/was in Rafa’s head. I feel against Djoko, perhaps Rafa should choose to receive serve instead of serving first.

      I feel once Rafa is nervous he tends to revert back to his defensive game, and that goes to show he’s still not comfortable playing his offensive game. His default game (ie his defensive game)is so much more ingrained into his mindset that it’s difficult for his offensive game to take over.

      It’s a pity, because his offence is so good and he could beat anyone with his offensive game.

      • Once again,very agree with all your points lucky!…It’s really shame coz if he believe in himself…i have no doubt in my mind that he could beat Novak(on hc)…even at Novak sacred place..Melbourne..

        At the same time,i am really sad knowing that Novak ‘damaged’ him that bad,changed him from the strong bull(mentally) to the player that doubted himself,clueless sometimes on court…don’t know what to do against Novak…i just hope Rafa will find a way to get rid of Novak’s demon in his head…once he’s be able to do that..insyaallah the old strong bull will return.

        • I actually hope that Moya was there to help Rafa to impose his offensive game on anyone, on the get go. I mean, since Rafa was physically tired, why not shortened all his matches by being more aggressive? Somebody must drill it into him, that his offensive game is seriously good and can beat anyone anywhere, to make him believe it and so to go for it esp when he’s not in tip top conditions physically.

          Logically speaking, if you’re not physically in tiptop conditions, all the more you would want to spend less time on court, so why not take things into your own hands instead of being at the mercy of your opponent and have to spend time defending? It doesn’t make sense!

  11. Reading comments from Rafa and Medvedev, yes, they were hard done by the travelling and the time difference between Perth and Sydney, and didn’t have enough rest and time to get used to the court at Sydney.

    Poor scheduling had cost them I feel; Khachanov could do better vs Lajovic (who said he’s more comfortable playing in Sydney than Brisbane!); Medvedev could have a chance too vs Djoko given how close the match was.

    Going forward, if they have to play at the three locations again, it’s better to let those at Perth to finish the group matches two days ahead of the rest and then travel to Sydney ASAP to give them time to adjust to different time zone and also the court surface.

  12. The seedings are out. Kyrgios got 24 which means he can’t play the big 3 till 4th round. 13-16 is dangerous for big 3. Shapo, stan, Diego, Karen..all big hitters and all are aggressive .wonder who is the best for rafa…djoko sure will be desperate to avoid stan

    • I’ll take Khachanov any day for Rafa, because want Stan or Diego to face Djoko, ha ha! Shapo is good enough to extend the TOP two but not good enough to beat them in BO5 I feel.

    • Talking about Stan, he’s the only one who could beat Djoko regularly in BO5 but rarely in BO3. I wonder why that’s so; maybe in BO5, Stan could afford to start slow but still has time to catch up and then overcome Djoko, with his consistently powerful and unrelenting groundstrokes.

      In recent times, off clay, only Stan could beat Djoko at the slams ( when Djoko wasn’t in his slump from 2017 to mid 2018). On grass Djoko seems invincible again, even Fed couldn’t have win over Djoko at Wimbledon.

  13. Hi all. I didn’t see the whole ATP cup final, but I saw 15 minute highlights. I have to say, I thought the level of tennis was INSANE. Novak was sensational in the first set, but it seems they both were in the 2nd. Obviously that second set could have gone either way, but based on that set, it’s very hard to believe Nadal hasn’t beaten either of his two main rivals on a hard court in six years.

  14. As is often pointed out, it’s hard to miss Nadal’s defensive court positioning. However, I don’t think it would necessarily help him to move forward, at least against Djokovic. Although Rafa has developed a great flat backhand that he can basically take on the short hop and muscle either CC or DTL, I don’t think he can manage it on the FH, where he needs more time to generate his whip motion. If he steps forward to the baseline, I think Novak will force a lot more errors on the FH side. In any case, if Nadal can serve like he did in that second set and play his game, he should do fine.

    • I too thought Nadal did pretty well in that 2nd set. He was tired from previous matchplay and the conditions (humidity, closed roof) favored Novak, but he still came close.

      I don’t know if he needs to move forward or not, but I thought he seemed a bit passive in some rallies, basically just trading down the middle of the court. Then Novak would be the aggressor, and get him running out to the FH side (also a successful tactic against Fed). The problem on hard courts now is that he doesn’t have his old defensive skills. On clay it’s not such a problem because his forehand causes insane difficulty with the top spin so he’s rarely on the defensive. Plus, when he is on the defensive his movement is better and clay gives him more time.

      It’s those hard courts that have less bounce that can really cause problems, because the ball is ending up in a hittable zone as soon as it’s a little bit short. Even guys like Goffin and De Minaur who aren’t known for their offensive abilities can then cause problems in three set matches. I do think it’s partly a matter of timing though, he seems to take a little while to adjust to the speed of the HC. Once the timing on the FH is right he doesn’t give many short balls away, although indoor conditions obviously favour opponents because it’s easier to rush him.

    • The problem with Rafa as always, is that he tends to camp at his BH corner, and so his FH tends to be under attack more often than not these days, esp when he’s now older and not as quick to cover his FH corner.

      To me that’s the flaw in his game, he could never be like Djoko and Murray, who tend to recover their positions quickly back to the centre of the baseline after each shot they make. For them, it would be easier to cover the court at both ends and at the same time, make it easier for them to redirect shots back to their opponents whichever directions they want.

      Rafa standing way back means his shots may land short at his opponent’s court and so giving his opponent chances to step in to take the ball early. How often we see that happening during his match with Djoko!

      I don’t agree that if Rafa stays closer to the baseline it would make it worse for his FH, it’s a matter of how he controls or hits it. In practice he could hit a flatter FH, but once in a match he has the tendency of reverting back to hit it with more topspin.

      During this ATP cup, Rafa netted a few make-able FH and that’s due mainly to his court position behind the baseline. Had he hit from closer to the baseline, he would’ve gotten the ball over the net. What he could do imo is to hit his FH flatter than usual when playing on the HCs and hitting from closer to the baseline.

      A consistently good serve may help him with his S&V tactics and that’s pretty effective against anyone. Djoko has a great serve when he needs it and his one two punch was very effective against a Rafa who stands so far behind the baseline to return serve. Rafa, when he’s serving well, could also employ the one two punch tactics very well (as per AO2019) so mixing in all these tactics may help Rafa be the aggressor in this match up.

      • Yes, flattening it out is a logical option that would allow him to stand further forward on faster/lower-bouncing hard courts. I guess the issue is how comfortable he’ll be in taking on that extra risk.

        And yeah, personally if I were Djokovic/Fed I would like seeing Nadal standing so far back on the return. It just means he’s in a very defensive position to hit any return ball, even if he is usually able to move in afterwards.

        Good analysis of Rafa/Djokovic in the ATP cup: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i7jPXpyhTBA

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.