ATP Cup final previews and predictions: Bautista Agut vs. Lajovic, Nadal vs. Djokovic

The inaugural ATP Cup final will be headlined by a showdown between Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic. Sunday’s action in Sydney begins with Roberto Bautista Agut of Spain facing Serbia’s Dusan Lajovic.

Roberto Bautista Agut (ESP) vs. Dusan Lajovic (SRB)


Bautista Agut has been an absolute hero for Spain over the last two team competitions. He helped his country capture the 2019 Davis Cup title and now the Spaniards find themselves in the ATP Cup final thanks in part to Bautista Agut’s perfect 5-0 record. The world No. 10 was especially impressive during a 6-1, 6-4 beatdown of Nick Kyrgios on Saturday night.

Up next for Bautista Agut is Lajovic, who is a hopeless 0-5 in the head-to-head series (0-3 at the ATP level). If there is any good news for the 34th-ranked Serb, it is that he has also been in outstanding form throughout this event. But he has mostly struggled in big Davis Cup situations for Serbia and he will be feeling a ton of pressure to deliver following his nation’s recent quarterfinal disappointment in Madrid (lost to Russia). Bautista Agut is quite simply the better player and has more experience–both quantity and quality–on this kind of stage.

Pick: Bautista Agut in 2

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Rafael Nadal (ESP) vs. Novak Djokovic (SRB)

Djokovic and Nadal will be facing each other for the 55th time in their careers on Sunday. The head-to-head series stands at 28-26 in favor of Djokovic, but the most telling statistic is that Nadal has not won on a hard court since the 2013 U.S. Open final. Their most recent hard-court encounter came in last year’s Australian Open title match, with Djokovic dominating 6-3, 6-2, 6-3.

There are additional reasons to like the second-ranked Serb’s chances. He is 5-0 so far at the ATP Cup, and although he needed three sets against Daniil Medvedev on Saturday his level in the decider was incredible. Nadal could be especially fatigued, as he went three sets against Alex de Minaur (a 4-6, 7-5, 6-1 victory) and worked double duty against Belgium in the quarterfinals (including a 6-4, 7-6(3) loss to David Goffin).

Pick: Djokovic in 3

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71 Comments on ATP Cup final previews and predictions: Bautista Agut vs. Lajovic, Nadal vs. Djokovic

  1. I try to avoid this forum when Rafa is playing because of the negativity and really quite derogatory comments about Rafa’s capabilities.

    • Noone is questioning rafas capabilities but the results show that rafa is ill equipped against djoko.. it is not even close.. rafa looks like he has retooled his game vs lesser opponents but seems like it is status quo vs djoko..

  2. A good start to 2020 for Djoko, beating the no.1 player. Rafa just doesn’t have the tools to beat Djoko on the HCs; Djoko is 13-2 vs Rafa on the HCs from 2011 onwards, that’s how far ahead Djoko is on the HCs.

    As long as Djoko is in the final on the HCs, Rafa can forget about winning it. Unless Rafa changes like a chameleon, and starts hitting flat penetrating shots, he’s not going to win against Djoko on the HCs. It’s so obvious that there’s so many flaws in Rafa’s game on the HCs, I’m sure Fed and Djoko know that and then exploit that when meeting Rafa on the HCs.

    • Yet, Rafa has won the USO 2 out of the last 3 times and retired with injury in the SF in 2018 otherwise he could have won it 5 times same as Roger Federer. Of Rafa’s 4 USO titles, he beat Djokovic twice in the final.

      • Nadal is excellent on hard courts…what he isn’t is excellent against Djokovic on hard courts. It’s a match up problem, every bit like Federer has a match up problem on clay against Nadal….and Djokovic with Nadal on clay, for that matter.

        • It took Djokovic 6 hours to beat Rafa in Australia in 2012 and last year, Rafa said he hadn’t had time to train on his defensive game after his ankle surgery before the AO. His defensive game is crucial against Djokovic. Djokovic is 2:0 against Rafa in Australia; nothing like Rafa’s 6:1 dominance against Djokovic on clay.

      • Yeah, and one of those two USO wins against Djoko was in 2010, Rafa’s best year. After 2011, Rafa only managed to beat Djoko twice on the HCs in 2013, another of his best years, and that’s all.

        His problem on the HCs is Djoko, not the others, as Djoko is good at exposing Rafa’s weaknesses on the HCs.

  3. Rafa came close to breaking Nole’s serve and squandered those precious break points! Novak serving DF in the tiebreak means he also fears Rafa and Rafa should have taken the advantage on it, but Rafa has too much respect for Nole on fast surfaces! I think Rafa playing the way he did most of the second set has strong chance of beating Nole on HCs in the near future!

    The comments here are so disrespectful of Rafa, even from his own fans, that I am just astonished! I recall Rafa beating Fed all the time and Fed fans still believed in their fave and gave Fed chance to level it on the HCs which Fed managed to do lately!

    I am so proud of Rafa! I knew he would not give up just easily and the match was close from the second set onwards! Hope Rafa comes out believing in himself now and can have his game further adjusted to finally beat Novak at his favorite surface in Melbourne!

    Vamos Champ! ❤️

    • The problem is Rafa doesn’t believe! It’s when his back is against the wall then he starts to fight back! Why wait until such time then he plays his best tennis, that’s not the way to win matches!

      It’s more frustration than disrespect imo, because Rafa’s offensive game is good enough to beat most guys, even Fed and Djoko, but Rafa rarely wants to play offensive tennis against those two guys, for lacking in confidence. He prefers to grind against them.

      He should learn something from his Rome match win against Djoko, no doubt that’s on clay, but since on clay he could be offensive, then all the more he needs to be more offensive on the HCs. It’s a matter of he not feeling confident on the HCs against those two guys; against all others he doesn’t feel intimidated imo.

      At times Djoko wasn’t even at his best, but he still was able to beat Rafa, whilst Rafa needs to be at his absolute best to beat Djoko, esp on HCs and grass.

    • Thank you Natashao. Some of these comments are so outrageously disrespectful. Based on these comments Nadal shouldn’t even bother playing Australian open, and US OPEN and Wimbledon for that matter since the ALMIGHTY djokovic is there. Nobody gave Nadal hope after 2011 and 2012 consecutive losses to Djoko on hardcourt. Nadal came back and beat djokovic twice on hardcourts in 2013 including at the US Open. So Rafa can beat Djoko on hardcourts period.

      He should have won that 2nd set after many breakpoints but made mistakes. If he won it, then the 3rd set is 50/50 cause Nadal serve was solid thru the second set.

      I agree with Nadaline too.

      Vamos Rafa. We believe in you.

    • Close but not enough; how many times he came close but lost? AO2012, Miami 2011 for examples, and now. Rafa since his win in 2013 USO, had not won a set against Djoko on the HCs, that’s pretty poor by any standard.

      Whether we like it or not, that’s the reality. Rafa has to break this spell, and overcome the Djoko ‘demon’ in his head. He doesn’t have any issue with all the other players.

    • That’s because Fed’s fans treat him like he’s god; likewise Djoko’s fans with Djoko.

      I doubt Rafa’s fans treat him like a god; more like treating him as a fellow human being, and seeing his flaws in his game and wanting him to improve.

      My personal opinion: Rafa is the best athlete among the tennis players, and he comes with a good tennis brain, one of the best if not the best tennis brain. His attitude towards the sports plus his skills set, together with his physical attributes and his tennis brain should make for a complete tennis player achieving much more on the tennis courts, on all surfaces. Imo he still has not reached his full potential, at least not on the HCs and grass, and should and could achieve even more if he continues to work hard to win more on the non clay surfaces, esp beating his main rivals on those surfaces.

  4. I don’t even think Rafa has had time to train since he arrived in Sydney because he’s played everyday until late and has barely had time to go to bed.

    • Good choice! Rafa should just lay back and enjoy! He did enough so far, time for Nole to fight in the doubles and if they win good for them!

  5. I think Rafa played at close to his best in set 2 and it was close. Could have gone his way. But, in critical moment, he just lacked the belief. Like the volley at 2-1 in tie breaker. This is the problem.
    But, overall, it’s not a bad loss, IMO. Plus, it’s better to get a match in now rather than straight the AO final.
    I still don’t see anyone, but Djok or Fed beating Rafa at AO. I genuinely see a lot of people who can beat Djoker ( Med, Tsisi to name a few).

    • I agree. A Djokovic win in Melbourne is not a foregone conclusion. Depends on the draw. I actually give Medvedev the edge over Djokovic in a best of 5. If Rafa is in the final against anyone but Djokovic, he’ll be at 20.

      • Sorry Cheryl, I respectfully disagree. Judging by what I saw in the 2nd set, If Nadal brings that level consistently in the Australian open final against djokovic he will win barring injury. The end.

        • If! How often you see that? The problem is mental, when Rafa is facing anyone else not named Djoko, he could play his best tennis on the HCs to beat them; but when he sees Djoko across the net, doubts begin to cloud or crowd his mind (eg. in the match that just ended, how often Rafa hit the wrong shot, right back at Djoko, when the open court was right there for him to attack?).

          Rafa can win the AO provided he plays like he did at the DC last year, just be aggressive throughout and serves well, even against Djoko.

    • For Rafa’s sake, just hope that Medvedev and Tsitsipas end up in Djoko’s half of the draw at the AO. Now that Medvedev will be seeded fourth, it may be better that Fed is in Rafa’s half of the draw leaving Medvedev to Djoko’s half.

      Rafa needs the help of the next gen to get rid of Djoko on the HCs. Most of them do not have mental scars against Djoko so they may fare better than Rafa against Djoko. They’re young and fit too, most importantly they’re offensive and have no fear of Djoko.

      • Rafa is not afraid of Djokovic on h/c same as Djokovic is not afraid of Rafa on clay. I think Rafa has more than proved himself on hard court but no one wants to recognise that.

        • Exactly nadaline. Well said. Plus I am not wishing that Medvedev or Tsitsipas is in djoko’s side of draw. Nadal can beat anyone in Australian open including djokovic, Medvedev, Tsitsipas. For goodness sake Nadal is a 19 time grand slam champion! He deserves better appreciation and respect.

          • The fact that Rafa wins one AO out of five finals, and he last won it more than ten years ago, says something about him and the AO. Djoko has proven that once he’s in the AO final, like Rafa at the FO, he’s always winning. So, the best chances for Rafa is not having to face Djoko in the final, and that’s not disrespectful to Rafa but just being realistic ( and showing respect to the seven time AO champion).

          • Nadal was leading in the 5th set in the Australian open final 2012 against Djokovic and should have won it imho. So he is more than capable of beating djoko at the Australian open final. Nadal has no equal to his expertise at the French open, djoko at the australian open
            is not even close to Nadal’s level at the french. It is VERY disrespectful to say that if djoko is in a hard court final including australian open, that nadal should forget about winning it. That is not being realistic, that is fear, period.

            He only won once because he was injured too many times at the australian open. So injury is his problem and Achilles heel not Djokovic. He is more than capable of beating djokovic at the australian open cause nobody is invincible especially not djokovic at the australian open and not djokovic with regards to playing nadal and that is my realistic humble opinion.

          • Sorry don’t agree. Djoko has proven when he’s in a AO final, he would win it, so not recognising that is not giving him respect. Rafa also lost before the final there at the FO no matter how invincible he’s there. So, Djoko may also lose before the final at the AO (and he lost there far more than Rafa losing at the FO) but once he’s at the AO final, he’s ruthlessly good, esp after his early loss in 2014.

      • What guarantee that Rafa will beat fed. He has not beaten fed too outside clay last 5 times right..Medvedev maybe easier than fed for rafa

        • Sanju, I prefer Rafa facing Fed in the SF than facing Djoko in the final. So, it’s better to have Medvedev to deal with Djoko in the SF, and hopefully he could beat Djoko to reach the final. Or better still, have Tsitsipas to meet Djoko in the QF too.

          But, knowing Rafa’s luck at the AO, he will have a tougher draw than the other two big three fellas.

          • We’ll see thiem n tsitsipas will be tough for the big 3 in qf..neither of the big 3 will have easier time beating both..now it depends who draws them..i hope fed gets tsitsipas n djoko thiem

            I prefer rafa to have Medvedev than fed. Yes fed has lesser chance to beat djoko but fed has better chance to beat rafa than med. We will think of djoko in final seperately .for all you know rafa may beat him

          • Funny, you think Rafa can beat Djoko in the final but will have problems against Fed in the SF? Rafa could at least take a few sets off Fed on the HCs, but he couldn’t take a single set against Djoko lately.

          • I never said he will beat djoko in final..i said he needs to reach final to beat djoko n beating med is maybe easier than fed for rafa…n in a final going for 20…maybe the adrenaline can get him through..n chance of both fed n djoko getting upset is bleak..so let them both be on other side n kill each other:-)

          • Fed and Djoko won’t kill each other on the HCs, at this moment Djoko > Fed on the HCs. Medvedev could at least extend Djoko and runs him crazy.

            Oh, and Fed may have problems himself against the other young guns; Rafa OTOH can beat the rest of the guys when fit and healthy; it’s still Fed and Djoko who will give Rafa the most problems at the AO.

        • Any news on how courts in Melbourne this year are playing …fed has had a hit already…are they fast like 2017 or medium fast…

          N hope rafa is physically fine over playing n no injury at all

    • Yeah I was hoping that Rafa would appear here at the ATP Cup but too bad, that Rafa disappeared. The DC Rafa was offensive Rafa at his best – served incredibly well, very offensive moving inside the court so often, held serve all through the DC and didn’t lose a set in the singles, and playing in both singles and doubles.

      DC Rafa played flawless tennis, if that Rafa appears here, he would beat this Djoko. The current Rafa reverted back to playing defensive tennis on the HCs, hence all the flaws creeping in. Unless he plays at Melbourne the same way he played at DC, he’s not going to beat Djoko if they meet there, imo.

      • DC court surface was very fast. That helped Rafa. Here, it’s slower, which gets Djokovic returning and ground game into play. That’s a difference, lucky.

        • And Melbourne courts are faster these days! Rafa stands more chance, he just needs to have beliefs and plays with more confidence on key points..

          He will be just fine provided no injuries.,.

  6. Rafa at AO vs 125 players not named Djok or Fed = win and slam no.20. That’s how good Rafa is. No1 is taking that away.

    A lot of The serves that Novak retuned today, will not come back against any other player.

  7. Rafa has explained that he’s not playing the doubles because he is low in energy. He’s been playing on fumes since he arrived in Sydney.

    • I was right all the way.,,I noticed Rafa was lacking energy! All these matches, bad scheduling and traveling did take it’s toll on Rafa’s body.,.

      • I hope it is just lack of energy as to why he’s not playing doubles and not any injury. Please I hope he’s ok physically. He should go and rest. He has had enough match practice for australian open and he should do well there.

  8. I hope Spain wins the cup, to prove they are the best team despite all the poor scheduling against them. Come on Feli and PCB!

      • The Serbian supporters are very loud, the same goes for the Greek supporters and also the Bulgarian supporters. Oh, and the Argentines too.

        I noticed during Dimitrov’s matches, his Bulgarian supporters courtside were so loud, making Djoko (and Rafa) rather pissed off. The Greek fans were very loud courtside at Abu Dhabi final when Tsitsipas played against Rafa. The Argentines were very loud too supporting Delpo at Miami and also during their DC final against Spain, in Spain one year.

        These fans are loud regardless of where they are, supporting their players. Sometimes I wish for the Rafa fans courtside to be louder than them, its not like there’s a lacking of Rafa fans around; its only in Madrid that I feel the crowd is really very loud in support of Rafa, because its in Spain.

        The only group that could be louder than all these groups, imo, is the Fed supporters, maybe only in Spain that the Rafa supporters drown the Fed ones. Even in Melbourne, his supporters drown that of Djoko’s, regardless of the Serbian migrants there, imo.

  9. There was the reason why Rafa had to play all the doubles! Feli is old and I would expect him to retire soon, while Carreno can play well when Rafa is there to bail him out of troubles. Troicki is back to playing well, played great matches this whole tournament and serves great…paired with Djokovic they make a winning combination!

    • “Old” people CAN still play doubles well. It’s just that Spain’s doubles teams have been useless in team competition unless Rafa is half of them. Just the way it is. I hope Rafa recovers some energy in the next week. Rafa without his trademark energy is very sad to see. I am very glad that Team Spain decided to sit Rafa out for this one though. No point in risking injury!

      • Amen! Ramara. It was an excellent decision. And I am happy Rafa faced Djoko before Australian open, so he knows what to expect should they meet and can work on implementing his DC game and his level at the 2nd set. And I believe he can beat Djoko and fed at the Australian open. I am optimistic unlike some people.

        Vamos Rafa

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