The inaugural ATP Cup final will be headlined by a showdown between Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic. Sunday’s action in Sydney begins with Roberto Bautista Agut of Spain facing Serbia’s Dusan Lajovic.
Roberto Bautista Agut (ESP) vs. Dusan Lajovic (SRB)
Bautista Agut has been an absolute hero for Spain over the last two team competitions. He helped his country capture the 2019 Davis Cup title and now the Spaniards find themselves in the ATP Cup final thanks in part to Bautista Agut’s perfect 5-0 record. The world No. 10 was especially impressive during a 6-1, 6-4 beatdown of Nick Kyrgios on Saturday night.
Up next for Bautista Agut is Lajovic, who is a hopeless 0-5 in the head-to-head series (0-3 at the ATP level). If there is any good news for the 34th-ranked Serb, it is that he has also been in outstanding form throughout this event. But he has mostly struggled in big Davis Cup situations for Serbia and he will be feeling a ton of pressure to deliver following his nation’s recent quarterfinal disappointment in Madrid (lost to Russia). Bautista Agut is quite simply the better player and has more experience–both quantity and quality–on this kind of stage.
Pick: Bautista Agut in 2
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Rafael Nadal (ESP) vs. Novak Djokovic (SRB)
Djokovic and Nadal will be facing each other for the 55th time in their careers on Sunday. The head-to-head series stands at 28-26 in favor of Djokovic, but the most telling statistic is that Nadal has not won on a hard court since the 2013 U.S. Open final. Their most recent hard-court encounter came in last year’s Australian Open title match, with Djokovic dominating 6-3, 6-2, 6-3.
There are additional reasons to like the second-ranked Serb’s chances. He is 5-0 so far at the ATP Cup, and although he needed three sets against Daniil Medvedev on Saturday his level in the decider was incredible. Nadal could be especially fatigued, as he went three sets against Alex de Minaur (a 4-6, 7-5, 6-1 victory) and worked double duty against Belgium in the quarterfinals (including a 6-4, 7-6(3) loss to David Goffin).
Pick: Djokovic in 3
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who ya got?
RBA in 3, Djokovic in 2. Nadal doesn’t look great atm. Normal for him, since it usually takes a while to shake off the rust…but it isn’t fantastic for him to be facing Djokovic so close to the AO.
RBA DOES look good, but then so does Lajovic. I thought he was was particularly impressive against an out-of-sorts Khachanov. I think Nadalovic will be disappointing and Lajovic/RBA will be entertaining.
I agree with Cheryl. Novak in 2 easy sets.
Spain could still win it though. Have to give them the advantage in doubles.
I think Spain will still win it, actually.
Rafa has/had the luck that, when not playing well, he has/had to meet Djoko! How often that happened (esp in 2015-2016) whilst Djoko when not playing well (2017 to mid 2018) only met Rafa twice, on clay.
It should be an easy win by Djoko in straight sets, judging from how poorly Rafa played vs Goffin and De Minaur. Djoko is so much better a player than those two.
I don’t foresee an easy win for Novak! He struggled to beat both Shapovalov and Medvedev, no easy win for him there! And Rafa, although tired and kind of out of sorts will be playing for his country so there he will get the energy from…
I personally do not care if Rafa loses to Novak tmrw, I want him to win this AO, which hugely depends on how he will cope with the heat and humidity..Rafa has had enough match play and should be ready for Melbourne!
Vamos Champ!
Natashao..waiting for your vision of rafa winning a second ao to come true..missed 4 chances 12,14,17,19.
Rafa has never reached consecutive ao finals..so let’s see..the draw will be key..who draws Nick in third round? Which side fed lands in? Who gets tsitsipas or thiem in qf..lot of intangibles at play…
Strange that they had a rest day in the RR but are playing 3 days in a row – singles and doubles – in the knockout stages. The scheduling leaves a lot to be desired. Spain lost 3 hours moving from Perth to Sydney and had to play immediately they got there. That’s why Rafa is so tired and just making the best of it.
I really dislike the scheduling fir this ATP tournament. I did not realize the circumstances under which Rafa was playing against Goffin. Five hour flight, three hour time difference between Perth and Sydney. Belgium had a day of rest. Then the court conditions and the godawful humidity.
Rafa’s game is not where it needs to be, but he does not have to be at his best now. He needs to get enough match play to be ready for the AO. I am now watching the replay of his match against Demon. The time difference is always awful with Australia and it’s confusing to know when Rafa will be playing.
I am not going to freak out about Rafa playing Novak. It would seem that Novak is in better firm, but he has not had a cakewalk in his matches. I don’t know what Rafa will have left for the final.
It’s all good so far with Rafa helping his team to get to the final. The big prize is the AO.
Novak is in better form. *
RBA is strong and consistent, I would be very surprised if he loses tomorrow. Simply the better player, that is correct.
Neither Djokovic nor Nadal is playing at their best right now. Granted, Novak found some form today, but that is no guarantee that he’ll be able to maintain it.
Rafa started slow both yesterday and today (he could still have beaten Demon in two if not for the first game of the match). I think that he as well ended playing the right stuff today. However, I doubt that Djokovic will employ the same go-for-broke strategy as Goffin and de Minaur. He does not have the mindset and tools to do it and he also must consider himself the favorite tomorrow. So he will present a different kind of challenge for the Spaniard.
I don’t agree that Nadal is tired, he just struggled with horrible scheduling (travel, timezone change, going to sleep in the morning, etc.) and adjusting with the new conditions – but he looks fine now.
That being said, Djokovic is indeed the favorite against Nadal on a hardcourt – or is he? If Rafa brings his USO / Davis cup tennis tomorrow, he can win this. However, I agree that he probably won’t just yet so Novak has the edge for now.
If that’s the case, Lajovic would’ve been under pressure against Khachanov knowing Medvedev was a strong chance of beating Djokovic.
I actually think Lajovic is stepping up to the ocassuk and handling the pressure except his next opponent is a different kettle of fish to his previous opponent.
With Spain up 1:0 and having an edge in doubles that changes things slightly and Nadal will liklely use it to his advantage from the outset.
Baptista Agut in 2
Nadal in 2
Now that I watched Rafa’s match with De Minaur, I think that the third set was the best tennis he has played in this tournament. He really had to tough it out in the second set until he got the break at the end. Then he seemed to change his tactics in the third set. I did not expect that third set to be so easy. Rafa just took over and De Minaur started making more errors. The only blip was Rafa getting broken when he was up 4-0. But he broke right back and then served it out for the win.
I am not that concerned if Rafa loses to Novak in the final. I know that Rafa will give it his best playing for his country. I don’t think that beating Novak will necessarily give Rafa a boost heading into the AO. At least this time Rafa will not be coming in cold. I just want Rafa to be match ready to give himself the best shot at winning that doh me career grand slam,
Me too. But every year I feel like Charley Brown when Lucy…you know.
Winning that DOUBLE career grand slam! *
It’s tough for Rafa against Djoko, that guy seems to have his numbers everywhere and it’s only lately after 2015/2016 that Rafa is > Djoko on clay again. He’s still struggling against Djoko on the HCs and grass, and doesn’t seem to figure out Djoko ‘s game – tried to be aggressive and it backfired re AO2019, tried to go toe to toe with Djoko and he lost after a long battle re: Wimbledon2018.
Djoko seems to have whatever Rafa has and even better – better serve, better returns, better BH, better court position, better speed and movements, better defence. His FH may not be better than Rafa’s but it’s not worse; his volleying may not be better but they’re already at a good level. It’s only his overhead smashes that are not up to par.
Unless Djoko has an off day or is injured somehow, once he sees Rafa in a final, he’ll play his best tennis to beat Rafa. I hope Rafa is at least competitive enough, and not loses like at Doha 2016 or AO2019.
Seeing the number of negatives rafa has as per this site, it seems rafa is ranked below 100 and knows nothing about tennis ..
Djoko may beat rafa likely today but that’s ok .all i hope is rafa not to get injured so that he has maximum chances at ao n he gets lucky with the draw in avoiding muck,fed,tsitsipas,thiem
Speak for yourself Sanju; you’re always the negative one here.
Let’s be honest, Rafa has problems vs De Minaur and Goffin, would he not have even bigger problem with the no.2 player? Rafa at times this ATP Cup doesn’t play like the world no.1, even Agut does better than him at times. Agut clinically despatched Kyrgios without much fuss, imagine Rafa vs Kyrgios, his own serve would be broken by Kyrgios, and Rafa’s ROS won’t be able to handle Kyrgios big serves (and Kyrgios would be extra motivated facing Rafa).
It’s Rafa’s tenacity more than his game that helped him came through, but the biggest test is still Djoko. Rafa has the problem holding serve in his first service game of his matches, and also when serving for a set or the match; it’s a bad habit that he fails to shake off, perhaps he’s more nervous at the start and nearing the end of matches?
His tenacity alone cannot win him 19 slams .it’s a big factor but there are lot other good things too..i am nervous about him losing because i want him to win n get the highest slam count ,not negative about him .Anyways i don’t watch his matches live, so i am not in a position to comment what parts of his game are clicking or not. All i know is perhaps he does not need to try so hard n push himself as atp cup is not Olympics. The only things that matter now are slams and olympics this year.
Come on Sanju, I’m talking about ATP cup here, why are you talking about the slams? Rafa’s game here at the ATP cup is not up to par, still some way to go before he gets back on track imo.
As far as the AO is concerned, Rafa said in an interview in Spain that he didn’t want a 5 hour slugfest with Djokovic after his ankle surgery in November so didn’t push too hard. Anyone watching that match could see for themselves that it was hardly the kind of contest they normally have. Djokovic took 6 hours to overcome Rafa in the 2012 AO final and the 2018 Wimbledon SF could have gone either way. It was 10-8 in the 5th set played indoors in bright sunshine because Djokovic preferred that.
Their h2h is only 28-26 to Djokovic. Most of Djokovic’s wins have been since 2011 and since 2012 Rafa has been plagued with one injury or another not even finishing the season except for 2015 and 2013.
$5M Bautista Agut 2:0 @ 1.75
$1M Bautista Agut 2:0 + Nadal to win at least a set @ 3.10
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9laEwg1Qzh8&feature=emb_title
Keep your mind focused, remain confident, be strong and show off your fighting spirit, Rafa!
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EOEMHnbWoAAMAxY?format=jpg