“Approach Shots” is Ricky’s weekly look at what’s ahead on the ATP Tour.
Most of the top players in the world, including everyone in the Top 10 other than an injured Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, will be making their final preparations for the U.S. Open this week at the Western & Southern Open. Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal got plenty of match practice in at the Rogers Cup, but Andy Murray (who lost his second match in Montreal to Ernests Gulbis) and Roger Federer (who skipped the tournament) must be eager for court time heading into the final Grand Slam of 2013.
Western & Southern Open
Where: Cincinnati, Ohio
Surface: Hard
Prize money: $3,729,155
Points: 1000
Top seed: Novak Djokovic
Defending champion: Roger Federer
Draw analysis: Nadal and Federer have both been in the draw of six tournaments this season. In four of those they have found themselves in the same half and three in the same quarter; first in Indian Wells (quarter), then in Madrid (half), next at Wimbledon (quarter), and now in Cincinnati (quarter). Only in Indian Wells did the anticipated quarterfinal showdown come to fruition, and another installment of the rivalry is a long way from happening this week even though the draw makes it possible. Federer awaits either Philipp Kohlschreiber or Mardy Fish (what would be a rematch of the 2010 Cincinnati final) in his opener before a possible date with Tommy Haas or Kevin Anderson. Nadal’s path is far more friendly on paper, but he is coming off a long–albeit triumphant–week in Montreal and Cincy is traditionally one of his worst tournaments. The Spaniard will begin his campaign against either Pablo Andujar or Benjamin Becker before potentially running into Grigor Dimitrov in the last 16.
A more difficult bottom half of the bracket also features a section involving Murray and Tomas Berdych. Murray may get a shot at revenge against Gulbis in the second round, although the Latvian has an intriguing first-rounder on his hands against Mikhail Youzhny. Other seeds in the final quarter are Stanislas Wawrinka and a red-hot Fabio Fognini. The Italian captured two straight clay-court titles earlier this summer and finished runner-up in another event, but he won’t have a surface advantage against Radek Stepanek or versus Julien Benneteau in round two.
It’s all setting up nicely for Djokovic, who—like Nadal—is still bidding for his first Cincinnati title. The top-ranked Serb, a four-time runner-up at this tournament, will have plenty of rest following his Montreal semifinal loss to Nadal and his nearest seeds are Gilles Simon, Richard Gasquet, and Milos Raonic. None has shown that they would have any prayer against Djokovic. Vasek Pospisil, who earned a special exemption as a result of his dream run to the Montreal semis, could face the world No. 1 in round three. Potential semifinal opponents for Djokovic out of the most wide-open quarter include David Ferrer and Juan Martin Del Potro. Both men are dealing with injuries, so a deep run by Jerzy Janowicz or Kei Nishikori—or even an unseeded floater like Benoit Paire or 2012 quarterfinalist Jeremy Chardy—could be in the cards.
First-round upset alerts: Kevin Anderson over (11) Tommy Haas – Both players are in the midst of impressive seasons but coming off opening losses in Montreal—Anderson to Dolgopolov and Haas to Marinko Matosevic. Haas, though, retired with a shoulder injury while trailing 5-0 in the first. That does not bode well for his chances of holding off an in-form Anderson.
(WC) Jack Sock over (12) Milos Raonic – Sock pulled off the upset in their only previous encounter with a 6-3, 5-7, 7-5 victory earlier this season in Memphis. That even came on Raonic’s favorite setting of indoor hard courts. Outdoors during the American hard-court summer should be more favorable for Sock. Furthermore, he is well-rested while Raonic is making a quick turnaround after lasting the entire week in Montreal–where he ultimately got pummeled by Nadal.
(SE) Vasek Pospisil over (15) Gilles Simon – Simon has not won a single match since losing the Eastbourne final to Feliciano Lopez. The rough stretch reached a new low at the Rogers Cup, where the Frenchman took set one over Nikolay Davydenko then promptly got double-breadsticked. Pospisil suffered a tough loss to Raonic in the semis, but not having to play a title match will at least give him a little bit of much-needed rest.
Second-round upset alerts: Ernests Gulbis over (2) Andy Murray – Will lightning strike twice in two weeks? Probably not. But based on Gulbis’ current form and what transpired in Montreal, the Latvian is obviously in with a chance. Murray has played only two matches since winning Wimbledon—one being his loss to Gulbis.
Benoit Paire over (7) Juan Martin Del Potro – Del Potro also carried an injury last year in Cincinnati (left wrist) despite making it to the quarterfinals. Now it’s a back issue. The Argentine barely got past Ivan Dodig in the Montreal second round before falling to Raonic in straight sets. Paire, who is enjoying a stellar 2013 campaign, may be able to capitalize.
John Isner over (8) Richard Gasquet – If Isner advances, a fourth career meeting with Gasquet will come on the American’s favorite stomping crowds: outdoor hard courts in the USA during the summer. Isner had played and won a ton of matches heading into Montreal (semis in Newport, title in Atlanta, final in Washington, D.C.), but he should be well-rested after losing in the first round to Pospisil in a third-set tiebreaker. Gasquet reached the quarters but was downright dreadful in bowing out to Djokovic.
Hot: Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, Rafael Nadal, Juan Martin Del Potro, Tommy Haas, Fabio Fognini, Vasek Pospisil, Kevin Anderson, Tommy Robredo, Ernests Gulbis, Adrian Mannarino
Cold: Roger Federer, Gilles Simon, Janko Tipsarevic, Brian Baker, James Blake, Jurgen Melzer, Sam Querrey, Alexandr Dolgopolov, Jeremy Chardy, Mardy Fish, Thomaz Bellucci, David Goffin
Quarterfinal predictions: Novak Djokovic over John Isner, Jerzy Janowicz over Kei Nishikori, Kevin Anderson over Grigor Dimitrov, and Andy Murray over Tomas Berdych
Semifinals: Djokovic over Janowicz and Murray over Anderson
Final: Djokovic over Murray
Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!
[polldaddy poll=7313302]
and I also dont understand whenever I feel andy can win he just crashes out of the tournament 🙁 I dont see him to be a strong contestant for the world no. 1 🙁 sad but its true he is a good world no 2 and 3 at the moment :/
I voted for Rafa in the poll above (Who will win Cincinnati?). He is my favorite to win, no matter what.
vmk1: I’m of exactly the same view as you. I fail to understand why Cincy should be any more difficult than Montreal/Toronto if Rafa went flat out for it. Interestingly enough both he and Nole bowed out in the Cincy 2010 QFs (on that occasion Baggy recorded his one and only win against Rafa in 8 meetings) but the two went on to meet in the USO final. Who can forget how that ended!!!!
Rafa has stated he has his eye on regaining the No.1 spot but I doubt he will put his knees at risk in order to do so. Lke you I believe he is actually more comfortable at No.2.
I disagree ed251137. I believe Rafa was comfortable as a #2 with Roger as #1. Call me crazy but I get the sense Rafa does not think Novak is a deserving #1. Not in the sense of his game, but as an ambassador for the position. I get the sense Team Nadal doesn’t absolutely like playing second fiddle to those “people”. Especially Uncle Toni, he has a hard time hiding his contempt. But with Roger, it was as if it was an honor to be second to Fed. During Fed’s reign, Uncle Toni never ever came out publicly talking about aiming for #1 but this year he has. Rafa will not put his knees at risk for it but he is gunning for it alright.
Quite interesting!!!
though it has been quite clear that Rafa views Fed in much high regards than Nole!!
Same applies for Fed abhi..He holds Rafa in far far higher esteem than Nole n Muzz. H has kinda gone public about it many times.
Sana, I too have the same feeling for Muzz. He is too inconsistent to be a World no.1. He’s gotta improve on that. He cant afford to take the clay swing so leniently.
Muzz’s priority is winning slams. If in the process he gets to no. 1, ok. But he is not gunning for No. 1.
Nole on the other hand has always wanted to be no. 1.. Even though Roger was equally arrogant, his arrogance was less irksome to Rafa because Roger was already established when Rafa came along so Rafa was sufficiently in awe to accept Roger’s no. 1 as his rightful due. Not so with Nole who came along later.
Also Roger’s celebrations were always about how great he is and not about dancing on his rival’s fallen body.
Nole and his team’s disgraceful over the top celebrations of victories over Rafa as well as the distasteful mock holdup of Djoko staged by Troicki on facebook didn’t help matters. We also have the stink and vile posts of Nole fans on Rafa’s wall and in every tennis forum when Djoko was winning.
I am sure even Muzz is disgusted by Nole and his team’s behavior.
In order to like Nole you have to keep beating him. Let him win and he is unbearable.
I can bet on it that Andy respects and puts Rafa on a far far higher pedestal than Novak
clayqueen definitely has to contend with some mysterious glitches. Her posts suddenly appear out of time sequence. Ricky should look into this. Without her active contributions, this site just will not have the vitality of the old group.
As far as Rafa being more comfortable at #2, well he’s not there yet. For myself, at least that would preclude him meeting Djoker in the semis. I also believe that Rafa has matured and would be more comfortable at #1 now. It’s been a few years. I also think it would mean even more to him now to get back at the top after all that he has been through.
As far as Rafa not liking being behind Djoker in the rankings because he is not a deserving #1, I don’t know that he thinks like that. Uncle Toni may have issues, but I don’t know about Rafa. They don’t always agree. The comments from Djoker’s father are not helping either.
Rafa may have had respect for Fed when he was #2 behind him, but that didn’t stop him from wanting to be #1.
Rafa is not stupid. He will not put his knees at risk to gain the #1 ranking. However, some Rafa fans need to stop freaking out every time he plays on hard court. Rafa is not a porcelain doll. He’s not going to break because of two back-to-back hard court tournaments. He has to have enough match play before the USO. He’s been off and had the chance to rest and get treatment. He can play for one month and then after the USO take some time off.
Regarding the comment about Djoker’s fans, we should remember that the idiots who were so disgusting on TT, were not real Djoker fans. They were haters and trolls.
nativenewyorker7 (August 12, 2013 at 5:19 pm),
Uncle Toni was lately asked about Novak’s father comments. U.Toni answered that Rafa and Novak have still good relationships.
—Question: In this sense, one thing that has caught my attention were the statements of the father of Novak Djokovic, saying that Novak and Rafael are no longer friends since Novak wins often.
Toni Nadal: Yes, yes, but first I think it is misinformed, because the relationship between Rafael and Djokovic is the same as a few years ago. They have a good relationship. And if he sees a different relationship, maybe it would have to ask your child, or maybe it’s his son who now is about less. But the relationship is good. You do not go to dinner with him because you’re with your team or with the Spanish, but the relationship is good.—
[Jot Down, 12.08.2013, Google translate]
http://www.jotdown.es/2013/08/toni-nadal-rafa-probablemente-es-el-jugador-que-mas-partidos-gana-jugando-mal/
ed,
If you don’t want to answer this here on this site, I will understand. But I have always wondered if you knew who scoretracker really was. You made some comments hinting at it. Because I have my own ideas.
He always claimed to be male but the hysterical rants and epic meltdowns always struck me as being a female with PMT. The constant references to age and the goading remarks about lifestyle/lack of education/immaturity etc were uncannily similar to S*****
Oh, so that’s who you thought it was. I thought it was someone else.
We do agree that this person was a female. I also do not believe that she was really a Fed fan.
One more comment. I don’t think that’s who it was. This person went after me from the start. It was intensely personal. I know there are people on tennis-x who really can’t stand me, but it never got to the point of being that intense kind of personal hatred. I am not going to say publicly here who I believe it was.
Isn’t this the first time Rafa has ever said he is gunning for number 1? Took me by surprise. In the past he always downplayed the importance and talked about not worrying about, worrying only about improving and about trying to win matches one at a time.
Quite, @chloro, quite. And you have to wonder why……….
Does someone have a direct source or quote where Rafa or Toni have said this?
Well thank goodness. We have our answer. But I already knew it. Rafa showed me with his actions at Montreal. You could see he was a man on a mission. He came prepared with a game plan and having practiced his serve and ROS. He understands that if he is to be successful on hard court, then there are some aspects of his game that need work.
So now we see one more time that the only pressure Rafa has is what he puts on himself. It’s a lot for him to come out and say it. He realizes that there is an opportunity that doesn’t come along that often. He has nothing to defend for the rest of the year. I am sure that he was not happy about losing his first match at Wimbledon. So the adversity and setbacks only seem to make him even more determined.
I watch him and realize that I have to cherish the time that he is in this sport. We will not see someone like him again. With all the he has gone through, all the injuries and disappointments, he is still in there fighting. Remarkable.
All true, nny. But as ritb says, you have to wonder why Rafa says publicly he is gunning for number one. In the past he might when he was near the number one with Roger within touching distance) I’m sure he was looking at it as a goal but he never said it in public.
Maybe this time it is because the writing is on the wall. He has done it before, Nole is not playing this year as he did in ’11, Andy is not (yet) consistent enough to be too big an obstacle, Rafa has no points to defend for the next 6 months while leading in the race!, and Rafa’s season since coming back in Feb is as good so far as Nole’s was in ’11 (minus the early exit in London). So this is the best chance he may have in the next couple of years and this is hard not to see. So perhaps to be too modest about it would seem disingenuous. Before he overtook Roger for number one it was an up-hill climb with no guarantees it would happen.
I thought that Rafa fans would want to know that he had his lower back taped in Montreal. There were some people on vb who were at the tournament and saw it in the quarterfinal match. They only posted it after the fact. They did not want to upset Rafa fans by revealing this while the tournament was in progress.
Now it makes even more sense that Rafa wanted to get through the match with Matosevic if his back was bothering him. He did say in an interview that the knee is fine, but his back was hurting. This is from being out for so long. They also thought that Rafa was holding back with this serving against Matosevic because of the match with Djoker coming up. I rememeber thinking that Rafa was only doing just enough to win. Now we have another reason why.
They also said that the tape wasn’t on his back for the semifinal match with Djoker. I have a feeling that Rafa isn’t showing us everything. I think there will be some surprises at the USO.
NNY ..With Rafs aggression..I am liking your aggression too :-). You are like come what may..Rafa has to get the No 1 back and I too feel the same..he has to get it back..I dont care how long he keeps it..3 months or 1 year..but he has to end the season as No 1 ..Go Rafa Go
nny, Saturday’s match and yesterday’s did remind me of Rafa’s getting ready for the USO in 2010. No guarantees of course it will happen. Were he to win it a second time this summer, even after playing so well the last 6 months, would be a major surprise and achievement. But he seems to be working on it with dedication, the same as any important goal he’s set himself in the past. I am curious to see whether he will find a way to play aggressively for most of the match each match he plays at the USO. And I hope he will play many of them :-). And that the lower back tape two days ago means little re this week.
hawkeye
which matches did you watch live?
@hawkeye, after RG Uncle Toni said Rafa was in a good position to end the year #1 and that whoever wins Wimby will be in pole position to end the year in front. After Montreal Rafa said, given his current ranking points, he would need to get to at least 10,000 ranking points to have a shot at the #1 spot and he would try his best. I will look for the relevant links and post.
ritb,
I think I read those comments from Rafa on vb. I would have to go back and look for that interview. It stood out to me because it indicates that Rafa has been thinking about the rankings . He said that he now has 8000 points and would need no less than 10,000 points to be #1. He is almost at 8000 points after Montreal. I think he also said in that interview that there is 6000 some thing points up for grabs in the final part of the tennis year.
I post Rafa’s interview for the third time.
‘An interview with Rafael Nadal (August 11, 2013)’
http://rafaelnadalfans.com/2013/08/12/an-interview-with-rafael-nadal-august-11-2013/#more-902
Rafa said after the yesterday’s final:
– it’s difficult to reach the world No. 1 spot this year, but he is going to try.
6500 points up for grabs with 3 Masters, 1 GS, WTF…..and no 10000 wont do, has to be 11000 at a minimum..Nole is not going to watch from the sidelines..
Here is the link to the article posted on vb. The comments from Rafa were made here.
http://www.tennis-x.com/xblog
When you click the link, then go to Rafa rocks Raonic in Montreal. That is the blog that has his comments about the rankings.
Does anybody else remember Rafa had his back taped earlier this year? Cant remember where but it might have been IW.
I have just checked: it was during Monte Carlo.
Yes, Rafa had his lower back taped in Monte Carlo.
Interview in Monte Carlo on 19/04/2013
[Google translate]
—Question. “Bandages were seen in your lower back at the end of the game…”
Rafa: “Yes…( he hesitates, then sighs ). Yes, there is something, but I do not want people talking about it. After a break it’s normal to have back, shoulder or elbow problems. I haven’t had enough time to practice. After Indian Wells, I did not play for two weeks, because I still had to undergo treatment for my knee. The body needs to adapt to this new playing intensity.”—
http://www.lequipe.fr/Tennis/Actualites/Nadal-a-besoin-de-temps/364868
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