“Approach Shots” is Ricky’s weekly look at what’s ahead on the ATP Tour.
Most of the top players in the world, including everyone in the Top 10 other than an injured Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, will be making their final preparations for the U.S. Open this week at the Western & Southern Open. Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal got plenty of match practice in at the Rogers Cup, but Andy Murray (who lost his second match in Montreal to Ernests Gulbis) and Roger Federer (who skipped the tournament) must be eager for court time heading into the final Grand Slam of 2013.
Western & Southern Open
Where: Cincinnati, Ohio
Surface: Hard
Prize money: $3,729,155
Points: 1000
Top seed: Novak Djokovic
Defending champion: Roger Federer
Draw analysis: Nadal and Federer have both been in the draw of six tournaments this season. In four of those they have found themselves in the same half and three in the same quarter; first in Indian Wells (quarter), then in Madrid (half), next at Wimbledon (quarter), and now in Cincinnati (quarter). Only in Indian Wells did the anticipated quarterfinal showdown come to fruition, and another installment of the rivalry is a long way from happening this week even though the draw makes it possible. Federer awaits either Philipp Kohlschreiber or Mardy Fish (what would be a rematch of the 2010 Cincinnati final) in his opener before a possible date with Tommy Haas or Kevin Anderson. Nadal’s path is far more friendly on paper, but he is coming off a long–albeit triumphant–week in Montreal and Cincy is traditionally one of his worst tournaments. The Spaniard will begin his campaign against either Pablo Andujar or Benjamin Becker before potentially running into Grigor Dimitrov in the last 16.
A more difficult bottom half of the bracket also features a section involving Murray and Tomas Berdych. Murray may get a shot at revenge against Gulbis in the second round, although the Latvian has an intriguing first-rounder on his hands against Mikhail Youzhny. Other seeds in the final quarter are Stanislas Wawrinka and a red-hot Fabio Fognini. The Italian captured two straight clay-court titles earlier this summer and finished runner-up in another event, but he won’t have a surface advantage against Radek Stepanek or versus Julien Benneteau in round two.
It’s all setting up nicely for Djokovic, who—like Nadal—is still bidding for his first Cincinnati title. The top-ranked Serb, a four-time runner-up at this tournament, will have plenty of rest following his Montreal semifinal loss to Nadal and his nearest seeds are Gilles Simon, Richard Gasquet, and Milos Raonic. None has shown that they would have any prayer against Djokovic. Vasek Pospisil, who earned a special exemption as a result of his dream run to the Montreal semis, could face the world No. 1 in round three. Potential semifinal opponents for Djokovic out of the most wide-open quarter include David Ferrer and Juan Martin Del Potro. Both men are dealing with injuries, so a deep run by Jerzy Janowicz or Kei Nishikori—or even an unseeded floater like Benoit Paire or 2012 quarterfinalist Jeremy Chardy—could be in the cards.
First-round upset alerts: Kevin Anderson over (11) Tommy Haas – Both players are in the midst of impressive seasons but coming off opening losses in Montreal—Anderson to Dolgopolov and Haas to Marinko Matosevic. Haas, though, retired with a shoulder injury while trailing 5-0 in the first. That does not bode well for his chances of holding off an in-form Anderson.
(WC) Jack Sock over (12) Milos Raonic – Sock pulled off the upset in their only previous encounter with a 6-3, 5-7, 7-5 victory earlier this season in Memphis. That even came on Raonic’s favorite setting of indoor hard courts. Outdoors during the American hard-court summer should be more favorable for Sock. Furthermore, he is well-rested while Raonic is making a quick turnaround after lasting the entire week in Montreal–where he ultimately got pummeled by Nadal.
(SE) Vasek Pospisil over (15) Gilles Simon – Simon has not won a single match since losing the Eastbourne final to Feliciano Lopez. The rough stretch reached a new low at the Rogers Cup, where the Frenchman took set one over Nikolay Davydenko then promptly got double-breadsticked. Pospisil suffered a tough loss to Raonic in the semis, but not having to play a title match will at least give him a little bit of much-needed rest.
Second-round upset alerts: Ernests Gulbis over (2) Andy Murray – Will lightning strike twice in two weeks? Probably not. But based on Gulbis’ current form and what transpired in Montreal, the Latvian is obviously in with a chance. Murray has played only two matches since winning Wimbledon—one being his loss to Gulbis.
Benoit Paire over (7) Juan Martin Del Potro – Del Potro also carried an injury last year in Cincinnati (left wrist) despite making it to the quarterfinals. Now it’s a back issue. The Argentine barely got past Ivan Dodig in the Montreal second round before falling to Raonic in straight sets. Paire, who is enjoying a stellar 2013 campaign, may be able to capitalize.
John Isner over (8) Richard Gasquet – If Isner advances, a fourth career meeting with Gasquet will come on the American’s favorite stomping crowds: outdoor hard courts in the USA during the summer. Isner had played and won a ton of matches heading into Montreal (semis in Newport, title in Atlanta, final in Washington, D.C.), but he should be well-rested after losing in the first round to Pospisil in a third-set tiebreaker. Gasquet reached the quarters but was downright dreadful in bowing out to Djokovic.
Hot: Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, Rafael Nadal, Juan Martin Del Potro, Tommy Haas, Fabio Fognini, Vasek Pospisil, Kevin Anderson, Tommy Robredo, Ernests Gulbis, Adrian Mannarino
Cold: Roger Federer, Gilles Simon, Janko Tipsarevic, Brian Baker, James Blake, Jurgen Melzer, Sam Querrey, Alexandr Dolgopolov, Jeremy Chardy, Mardy Fish, Thomaz Bellucci, David Goffin
Quarterfinal predictions: Novak Djokovic over John Isner, Jerzy Janowicz over Kei Nishikori, Kevin Anderson over Grigor Dimitrov, and Andy Murray over Tomas Berdych
Semifinals: Djokovic over Janowicz and Murray over Anderson
Final: Djokovic over Murray
Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!
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who ya got?
so which players are taking out nadal and federer??
Federer will lose to Kohlschreiber or Anderson (probably Anderson) and Nadal will either not play or lose to Dimitrov.
ricky has as love affair with picking djokovic to win every single hard court tournament in the world lol
haha..fed will not to either i think…which racket is he using btw?!
“Murray has played only one match since winning Wimbledon—his loss to Gulbis.”
one correction. He played two (Granollers 2R)
thanks! fixed!
Ricky,
Really? Rafa not even getting to the quarterfinals? What, he’s tired after playing five matches? Or he won’t want to kill himself before the USO? Why not just pull out altogether?
So far Rafa is playing. I think he would have pulled out already. I assume he would ask for a Wednesday start.
I don’t see Rafa playing if he doesn’t expect to have a decent result. I would expect him to get to the quarterfinals.
ricky thinks cincy is played on a planet where rafa finds hard to breathe LOL… if rafa wants to do well there, he’l make it to the semi finals in my view … or may be the qtrs..cincy is fast but there is nothing substantial to suggest rafa cant win in fast conditions when he is playing this well ! he has never approached playing cincy this well so I am not looking too much into the past results…
Rafa is physically fresh too..today’s match was just a practice session…
worst tournament of his career. not sure why anyone would pick him to go further than i did.
Ha ha, thank you Ricky!
Ricky,
Please! I can give you two reasons – match play and rankings points.
Even somehow I get a feeling that Rafa would not get too far in this tournament. Traditionally Rafa does not enjoy Cincy. But he stands a chance of winning or reaching the final if the draw opens up with seeds tumbling out.
Which seeds tumbling out would benefit Rafa. I find that quite condescending.
it was often said that US open is rafa’s worst slam..he was never comfortable there until he won it in 2010 dropping a single set ! so if cincy is his worst tournament, that does not mean he is forever going to bow out in that early…not saying he is going to win cincy but he can surely do well here if he wants to
Oh my both Roger and Rafa not even making the qtrs, now thats really bold Ricky 🙂
I hope we know if Roger doesn’t make it even to qtrs and Berdy, DElpo put up decent results , Roger may go down to No 6/7 too. I dont think he will let that happen, I am sure he will have something to say about it.
Really Ricky? Rafa will not make it to Qtrs coz its his worst tournament? And Fed? He will lose coz its his best tournament? Seriously man..
My pick: Fedal Qf will take place with Rafa as winner (given their recent form). Then a Rafa-Muzz Sf whose outcome is difficult to predict coz of Muzz puzzle.
@ vamosrafa. USO was most difficult but the kind of effort that Rafa would put into winning it is not the same as the one he would want to put in to win Cincy considering its so close to USO. And certainly not if he has to go thru the likes of Federer,Murray and Djoko to win it. Especially since he did well in canada and has sent a message out to the field. No .1 ranking can wait. I love Rafa where he is the hunter. The thing is that matches with top players not only drain you physically but mentally as well. Imagine Rafa having to play Murray rather than Raonic after that match with the Djok! If he really wants number 1, he has ample tournaments in the fall to make a dash for it. But now USO is his priority, isn’t it?
vmk, Rafa dropped his serve 3 times in the whole tournament at the USO in 2010. What kind of effort are you talking about?
Lol Andy is “hot.” “Luke warm”, I’d say.
Lol abhirf Andy certainly is a “puzzle.” You must be a fan! Andy had the trainer out for his back in his double semi, so don’t think he’ll be risking anything here. Hope he gives Gulbis a slap though….:) But, on the other hand, hasn’t he won here twice, so obviously likes/does well here. EEK.
Got no idea whose gonna win tbh
#OnTheFence
Hahaha! Hahaha! Hahaha!, Hahaha! Hahaha! Hahaha! Hahaha!
That’s all I have to say about Ricky’s prediction for Rafa and Fed…………..
I am glad that you are laughing. Maybe that’s the best way to look at it. We know that Rafa hasn’t done well at this tournament, but look at how he’s playing!
I am happy that Rafa wants to play at Cincy. I just couldn’t see him sitting around on his butt or practicing for the next two weeks. He’s been out for a while and it’s great to see him playing this well, but he’s not in his best form yet. At the very least it’s more match play for him and some additional points.
As for Rafa moving up in the rankings, my issue is that if he can at least get to #2, then he won’t have to bump up against Djoker in the semis anymore. I don’t think he can get to #2 before the USO, but it would be nice to see him get there after. It depends on how he does at the USO.
Someone said on another site, I think it was tennis-x, that Rafa needs 2500 points to become #1. I haven’t looked into it so can’t say if this is correct.
Hi NNY…Thanks for the welcome. You thought about me and I am here 🙂
My take is both Murray and Djoko are equally difficult now on for Rafa.. Djoko may just be more troublesome given the history but we really never know how he will square up against the newer Murray GS version.
Rafa s currently 3540 points behind Novak in points, but in the race he is like 1420 points ahead of Novak. Novak has a good 4300 points plus (Cin Finalist, USO finalist, Shanghai wnner, WTF winner) to defend till year end, Rafa has 0. This can swing any way. USO will be the key. Rafa somehow needs to clock about 3000 points from now till year end I feel to assure himself of the No 1 ranking.
Rafa is currently only 750 points behind Andy in points and 2560 points ahead in race. I think the only way for Rafa to get to No 2 before USO is to win Cincy. I think overtaking Andy is doable , Djoko is a herculean prospect, but let us see how it pans out.
Rafas take on World No 1, my this guy is really serious about it. He is actually keeping a tab on the points and even admitting it unlke a certain Mr Federer who said he rarely sees the rankings and checks it to see where Stan is at 🙂
“I feel I have an advantage, but not enough to say that I am the favourite,” he said. “On this kind of surface, Novak is really good. [There] remains three Masters 1000s, one Grand Slam, [Barclays ATP World Tour Finals] – more favourable surfaces for him than for me. So we are talking about 6,500 points.
“We have to realise how many points I have to win to be No. 1. I think I will not be No. 1 if I have less than 10,000 points at the end of the season. Today I have 8,000. I need to win minimum 2,000 more. That’s very difficult in this part of the season, but I’m going to try.”
Nah Deucey.. Not a Muzz fan. But yeah , I do like his game (not that passive one). 😉
As usual Rafa downplaying his chances.. Not a surprise.
why rafa always underestimates his chances? the way he is playing I m sure he can win 4000 points easily … who can beat him in us open?? murray is the only guy I think but its not gonna be at all.. and I have a feeling he will perform incredible in WTF note my words rafans.. 😉