“Approach Shots” is Ricky’s weekly look at what’s ahead on the ATP Tour.
Most of the top players in the world, including everyone in the Top 10 other than an injured Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, will be making their final preparations for the U.S. Open this week at the Western & Southern Open. Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal got plenty of match practice in at the Rogers Cup, but Andy Murray (who lost his second match in Montreal to Ernests Gulbis) and Roger Federer (who skipped the tournament) must be eager for court time heading into the final Grand Slam of 2013.
Western & Southern Open
Where: Cincinnati, Ohio
Surface: Hard
Prize money: $3,729,155
Points: 1000
Top seed: Novak Djokovic
Defending champion: Roger Federer
Draw analysis: Nadal and Federer have both been in the draw of six tournaments this season. In four of those they have found themselves in the same half and three in the same quarter; first in Indian Wells (quarter), then in Madrid (half), next at Wimbledon (quarter), and now in Cincinnati (quarter). Only in Indian Wells did the anticipated quarterfinal showdown come to fruition, and another installment of the rivalry is a long way from happening this week even though the draw makes it possible. Federer awaits either Philipp Kohlschreiber or Mardy Fish (what would be a rematch of the 2010 Cincinnati final) in his opener before a possible date with Tommy Haas or Kevin Anderson. Nadal’s path is far more friendly on paper, but he is coming off a long–albeit triumphant–week in Montreal and Cincy is traditionally one of his worst tournaments. The Spaniard will begin his campaign against either Pablo Andujar or Benjamin Becker before potentially running into Grigor Dimitrov in the last 16.
A more difficult bottom half of the bracket also features a section involving Murray and Tomas Berdych. Murray may get a shot at revenge against Gulbis in the second round, although the Latvian has an intriguing first-rounder on his hands against Mikhail Youzhny. Other seeds in the final quarter are Stanislas Wawrinka and a red-hot Fabio Fognini. The Italian captured two straight clay-court titles earlier this summer and finished runner-up in another event, but he won’t have a surface advantage against Radek Stepanek or versus Julien Benneteau in round two.
It’s all setting up nicely for Djokovic, who—like Nadal—is still bidding for his first Cincinnati title. The top-ranked Serb, a four-time runner-up at this tournament, will have plenty of rest following his Montreal semifinal loss to Nadal and his nearest seeds are Gilles Simon, Richard Gasquet, and Milos Raonic. None has shown that they would have any prayer against Djokovic. Vasek Pospisil, who earned a special exemption as a result of his dream run to the Montreal semis, could face the world No. 1 in round three. Potential semifinal opponents for Djokovic out of the most wide-open quarter include David Ferrer and Juan Martin Del Potro. Both men are dealing with injuries, so a deep run by Jerzy Janowicz or Kei Nishikori—or even an unseeded floater like Benoit Paire or 2012 quarterfinalist Jeremy Chardy—could be in the cards.
First-round upset alerts: Kevin Anderson over (11) Tommy Haas – Both players are in the midst of impressive seasons but coming off opening losses in Montreal—Anderson to Dolgopolov and Haas to Marinko Matosevic. Haas, though, retired with a shoulder injury while trailing 5-0 in the first. That does not bode well for his chances of holding off an in-form Anderson.
(WC) Jack Sock over (12) Milos Raonic – Sock pulled off the upset in their only previous encounter with a 6-3, 5-7, 7-5 victory earlier this season in Memphis. That even came on Raonic’s favorite setting of indoor hard courts. Outdoors during the American hard-court summer should be more favorable for Sock. Furthermore, he is well-rested while Raonic is making a quick turnaround after lasting the entire week in Montreal–where he ultimately got pummeled by Nadal.
(SE) Vasek Pospisil over (15) Gilles Simon – Simon has not won a single match since losing the Eastbourne final to Feliciano Lopez. The rough stretch reached a new low at the Rogers Cup, where the Frenchman took set one over Nikolay Davydenko then promptly got double-breadsticked. Pospisil suffered a tough loss to Raonic in the semis, but not having to play a title match will at least give him a little bit of much-needed rest.
Second-round upset alerts: Ernests Gulbis over (2) Andy Murray – Will lightning strike twice in two weeks? Probably not. But based on Gulbis’ current form and what transpired in Montreal, the Latvian is obviously in with a chance. Murray has played only two matches since winning Wimbledon—one being his loss to Gulbis.
Benoit Paire over (7) Juan Martin Del Potro – Del Potro also carried an injury last year in Cincinnati (left wrist) despite making it to the quarterfinals. Now it’s a back issue. The Argentine barely got past Ivan Dodig in the Montreal second round before falling to Raonic in straight sets. Paire, who is enjoying a stellar 2013 campaign, may be able to capitalize.
John Isner over (8) Richard Gasquet – If Isner advances, a fourth career meeting with Gasquet will come on the American’s favorite stomping crowds: outdoor hard courts in the USA during the summer. Isner had played and won a ton of matches heading into Montreal (semis in Newport, title in Atlanta, final in Washington, D.C.), but he should be well-rested after losing in the first round to Pospisil in a third-set tiebreaker. Gasquet reached the quarters but was downright dreadful in bowing out to Djokovic.
Hot: Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, Rafael Nadal, Juan Martin Del Potro, Tommy Haas, Fabio Fognini, Vasek Pospisil, Kevin Anderson, Tommy Robredo, Ernests Gulbis, Adrian Mannarino
Cold: Roger Federer, Gilles Simon, Janko Tipsarevic, Brian Baker, James Blake, Jurgen Melzer, Sam Querrey, Alexandr Dolgopolov, Jeremy Chardy, Mardy Fish, Thomaz Bellucci, David Goffin
Quarterfinal predictions: Novak Djokovic over John Isner, Jerzy Janowicz over Kei Nishikori, Kevin Anderson over Grigor Dimitrov, and Andy Murray over Tomas Berdych
Semifinals: Djokovic over Janowicz and Murray over Anderson
Final: Djokovic over Murray
Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!
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This is more evidence of the price Rafa pays when he has to be out for a while. Yes, he did have his back taped at MC. As he said, his body has to adjust to the rigors of playing again.
We all remember how he had that stomach tear when he came back in 2009. I think he is holding back with his serving. Someone mentioned on vb that he has changed his ball toss and service motion. I thought that we would see a milder version of the USO serve this time. But this person said that the change in mechanics would be to avoid the shoulder problems he developed in the last months of 2009.
I just have this feeling that Rafa will have some surprises in store for everyone at the USO. Either he has figured out that he doesn’t need to go all out and hit 130+ serves now, or we might just see that big serve reappear. I personally think that hitting 123, 124 and 125 mph aces is good enough. That’s what he was doing in the match with Djoker.
Djoker never had a huge serve. He would stay in the mid 120’s with his first serve. But his second serve was bigger than normal. He usually served in the 90’s and sometimes even in the low 100’s. I know that Rafa hit a 98 mph serve in the first set of that semifinal match. I don’t remember him going for that much. Despite that, Djoker still hit a ROS winner. But overall Rafa’s serve held up quite well. I think that Djoker only broke Rafa once, in the second set. There were no breaks of serve in the third set. Rafa broke Djoker twice in the first set. That is a huge difference from their matches in the past.
Yes I think so too, however you cant say it is similar to 2010. He did not show us his monster serve in Canada/Cinci in 2010..it sddenly appeared in USO..However here, he showed us his aggressiveness, court positioning, good serving all n Montreal..It can either be variations to his serve which can take people by surprise.
Sanju,
I don’t think that Rafa had a choice, considering that he had to play Djoker in the semis. If he hadn’t shown those tactics in that match, then he would have lost. Also, in 2010 he was coming off a great win at Wimbledon. He got treatment for the knee and wasn’t able to practice until right before Canada. So he came in very rusty. I think he also didn’t show us the USO serve because he had some problems with his stomach and didn’t want to risk another stomach tear.
At that point, he just wanted to come into the USO healthy. That big serve is what got him through his early rounds when he wasn’t yet in his best form.
I still don’t know if Rafa is going to come out with that huge 2010 serve. Maybe he realized that he doesn’t have to serve that hard. He can do it by blasting aces in the mid 120’s. I still think that there are going to be more surprises. He was testing his aggressive game in all his matches at Montreal.
Does Rafa still have problems with his back?
NNY: Now I’m truly intrigued. Can you give me a cryptic clue?
It is someone who was banned from both tennis-x and tt. There was only one Roddick fan on either site. Do you remember scoretracker talking about Roddick and American tennis often? That was a big clue.
There is only one person with whom I have had contact that hates me as much. This person also hated Jane with a passion.
I don’t know if you ever read tennis-x. Danny Morris really finally confirmed it for me when he was going after people for getting someone banned.
You think Nishikori’s gonna take down Del Potro?
Nishikori can do it only if Delpo’s back is still hurting.
blake beat jerzy !!!
That was a dreadful performance from Jerzy! Blake did play well, but what on earth was Jerzy thinking out there? Or was he thinking? He finally woke up in the second set and had his chances to break Blake. But he didn’t get the job done. He was just hitting harder and harder. He has to think and adjust to opponents. It’s not just about blasting the ball has hard as possible.
Two of Ricky’s semi-finalists have bitten the dust. – Jerzy and Anderson.
youzhny beat gulbis so some relief for muzz and duecy 😉 I see muzz making a strong impact in this tournament
“Looking at the match that we had a few days ago, I think it was decided by just a few points,” said Djokovic. “There was no difference in the previous matches we had – most of them – in the last few years. 2011 I was winning most of them; now he’s winning. It’s a course of life.”
“You can’t always be winning the matches,” added Djokovic. “You can’t always be the one that is going to prevail in the important moments. It’s mental. It’s a matter of confidence also. Sometimes you manage to go for the shot that usually you wouldn’t and sometimes it works; sometimes it doesn’t for you. I guess that makes a difference.”
this gives me a feeling djokovic is not so confident heading into the open , esp if he faces rafa…there seems to have a ‘mental block’ developing that will continue to grow if novak is unable to solve the rafa puzzle… and the fact that he lost to muzz at last year’s final and this year’s wimby final makes him significantly vulnerable… he is not in the best states of mind, that is for sure..If he is not able to put together a very strong performance here at cincy, he’l be struggling for confidence big time ..
Agree. He is feeling slightly vulnerable vis a vis Rafa and Andy right now. More than the RG loss, I think the Montreal loss may have hurt his confidence a bit more as it came on HC.
Just watched the 2nd set of Fed-Kohlbi. He wasn’t looking particularly impressive but got the job done: Kohlbi tried to be a bit too tricksy which was his undoing.
Waiting with interest to see where Djokovic is at.
ed,
I saw that match, too. I wanted to see the new, reinvigorated Fed! His serve stats were really great. I think for the match he won something like 87% of first serves and over 60% of second serves. However, he was unable to capitalize on many of his break chances. It’s hard to judge him against Kohls, who I think did not play that well. I think you may have a point about Kohls trying to be too cute or tricksy.
Kohls broke Fed in the second set and was up 4-2, but was broken back. So it went to a tb and Fed had a bit of trouble closing it out. Fed’s serve was really good and his groundstrokes were pretty sharp, but we will have to see what happens with him as he moves on.
I am very interested to see where Djoker is at. I think his comments about his loss in the semis at Montreal to Rafa, were kind of disingenuous. He said that it came down to a few points like it always does with them. Unfortunately, he didn’t mention that he has won their last five meetings on hard courts. So this is a sea change. If Djoker doesn’t get serious about his game and work on some things, then he is going to regret it.
I am praying hard that Rafa gets to the finals, meets Djoker there and beats him! That would be the final stake in Djoker’s heart, he would fold. For all the positive srides he made in 2011 with regards his mentality, he has shown mental fragility this year and I think he is vulnerable right now.
However, Fed produced plenty of his classically executed BH shanks lol!
Ricky’s picks are falling like nine-pins
my Dimitrov in the quarters pick is looking good tho!!!!!
lol..dimitrov will be tough for rafa….rafa to win win though
Yeah, Ricky you can talk up your pick about Dimitrov now, but I think Rafa will be able to handle him.
vamosrafa,
I do think that on this surface Dimitrov could be tough. But Rafa had to deal with Jerzy when he only had one match under his belt. I expect Rafa to come out prepared just the way he did against Jerzy.
Rafa isn’t thinking about Dimitrov right now. I don’t know much about his first opponent. Hah! I bet if chr18 was here he would get on me for not knowing this qualifier! I remember him getting on me because I didn’t know two of Fed’s opponents ranked outside the top 100!
I want to see who Ricky picks if Rafa and Fed do meet in the quarterfinals.
Benjamin Becker? he’s the guy who beat Agassi.
And as a result his career was blighted by being named ‘Most Promising Newcomer’ in 2006 and he’s never managed to go further than R2 in Slams and Majors ever since.
RT @TennisReporters: “RT @tennis Roger returned to his smaller frame and scored a big win: #RacquetReaction to Federer d. Kohlschreiber: ”
Sums up where Roger’s at right now. Beating Kohls is deemed big……..
I thought that Fed was going to use the big racket. I saw the match. Big win? Please tell me they are kidding! Kohls did not play well at all. He had a chance when he broke Fed in the second set. I thought Kohls let opportunities get away from him.
The one thing is that Fed’s serving stats were excellent. But what is going to happen when he bumps up against someone who can challenge him? I am of course talking about Rafa!
Look at this point Fed has to do something. He is defending 1000 points here. If he can’t win and drops more points, his ranking could fall further. Unfortunately for him, he could potentially have to play Rafa, Andy and Djoker to win!
NNY: Of course! There was a time when I had made that connection but I’d forgotten about her completely in the meantime.
May peace reign here!
ed,
I thought you weren’t going to answer me. Since you said nothing, I just let it go. So now you do know who I was talking about? I don’t want to say the name here publicly. I also don’t want to tempt fate and give this person a reason to go after me or anyone else.
There is so much I could say, but I don’t dare. I know a lot more than I have let on. So you now think that was her? I contacted Cheryl Murray in the past with my suspicions, but I don’t think she believed me or just didn’t want to go there.
Long live peace and great tennis discussions!
between nadal and federer, ricky usually picks nadal , no matter the surface !…
anyway, monaco recovered and then lead 5-4 after being down 1-4 againt djo in set 1 only to choke in that important ‘serving for the match’ game… djo not so comfortable so far
I am not looking ahead to Rafa and Fed yet. Rafa hasn’t even played his first match. But I looked up this guy Becker on the atp website. He is the one who gave Agassi his final loss in the game. The guy is old and has been around for a long time. He’s currently ranked 100. If Rafa comes out sharp, then he shouldn’t have too much trouble with this guy. Dimitrov is another thing.
I saw the Djoker/Monaco match. Some ugly stuff from Djoker. Lots of UE’s. He was up 4-1 in that first set and then Monaco came back to even it up at 4-4 and then go ahead 5-4. That’s when Djoker seemed to raise his level of play to get the first set. After that Monaco didn’t put up much resistance.
These are the kinds of lapses that Djoker has been having all year. He got away with it against Monaco, but he won’t be able to do it against Murray or Rafa.
Ricky is trying to emulate the sequence of events in Montreal where 2 ‘wild cards’ made it to the SF. I was hoping he would leave his crystal ball at TT.
you wanted me to get picks correct!?!?!
^^^Probably not.