In terms of titles, the Australian Open is Rafael Nadal’s worst Grand Slam. The Spaniard has lifted the trophy only once and is in the midst of a nine-year title drought since winning it all back in 2009. Combine that fact with Nadal’s possible physical issues heading into this fortnight and it was no surprise that he trailed Novak Djokovic (by a lot) and Roger Federer (by a little) in the pre-tournament title odds.
Since retiring from last summer’s U.S. Open semifinal against Juan Martin Del Potro, Nadal has dealth with knee, hip, ankle,and thigh injuries. The world No. 2 skipped the 2018 fall swing, withdrew from an exhibition event in Abu Dhabi last month after just one match, and then pulled out a season-opening tournament in Brisbane two weeks ago.
And with that, Nadal–who retired from a 2018 Australian Open quarterfinal against Martin Cilic in the fifth set–arrived in Melbourne with little confidence…. Well, that should read: “with little confidence instilled in him by the general public.” After all, the 32-year-old–despite being perhaps the most humble player on tour–has never lacked belief in himself.
Fast forward through two rounds and no one should be lacking belief now. Nadal trounced a pair of Aussies in straight sets to earn another meeting with an Aussie, Alex De Minaur. The second seed disposed of James Duckworth 6-4, 6-3, 7-5 before hammering Matthew Ebden 6-3, 6-2, 6-2.
“[It was] a very positive victory for me,” Nadal said following Wednesday’s rout of Ebden. “I (am) happy the way I played. I started a little bit slow, especially on the return side; serving I think was good from the beginning…. I think I play well.”
Beyond his own game, things are breaking well so far for the 17-time Grand Slam champion. De Minaur is coming off an unexpected five-set battle with Henri Laaksonen and the up-and-coming hometown hopeful had already put himself through a rigorous and triumphant Sydney campaign just last week. With Nadal well-rested by comparison, the favorite should have a huge advantage on Friday.
Moreover, projected fourth-round seeded opponent Kyle Edmund lost in round one and projected quarterfinal foe Kevin Anderson was stunned by Frances Tiafoe in round two. Looking further ahead, Novak Djokovic–a likely final adversary for Nadal–has to face 2008 runner-up Jo-Wilfried Tsonga on Thursday.
It’s still early in the tournament…but not too early to start thinking about the possibility of Nadal completing the double career Grand Slam.
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It’s going to be an exciting week and a half, I feel Rafa is looking good, but his first proper test is Berdych. Tomas has the best serving numbers of everyone in the bottom half (both first and second serve), and he can rally toe-to-toe with Rafa. If the semi-final is Fed vs Rafa, I would pick Fed no matter how good Rafa looks. As much as I want him to complete to career golden double slam, Fed will beat him on this court. Roger has cleared his head of any barriers between him vs Rafa and the victory, he’s changed his game plan and it worked to perfection in 2017. If Rafa is to make final, Roger has to lose before SF
Nah, Fed beat Rafa in 2017 because of his BH, now I don’t see Fed hitting his BH all that well and that’ll be a problem for Fed!
Rafa CAN beat Fed anywhere unless it’s low bouncing indoor HC at end of year. Fed isn’t playing as well as his AO2017, and he needed five sets (and almost lost it in the fifth set) in 2017 to beat Rafa. The current Rafa has a better serve, is playing more aggressive tennis, so I don’t see why he can’t beat Fed should they meet.
If Daniel Evans has his chances in the TBs, I don’t see why a player of Rafa’s caliber can’t go a step or two further.
Nadal does sometimes lack confidence but when he does he says so, for example pre AO 2015. When asked about his chances he said “ask me at the end of the week – if I’m still here”. But he did not lack confidence coming into AO this year, despite his injuries and lack of match play, and he said so, although apparently more to the Spanish press. Of course he cannot know whether he will get injured during this tournament, he can only do the best he can. What Rafa has going for him is an excellent level of play over the past two years, complete faith in his team and vast experience and success.
Ricky,
Does this mean you are changing your original prediction that De Minaur will beat Rafa?
I still can’t believe Tiafoe beat Anderson, but I am very happy for him.
this article doesn’t mean I am, but the daily picks page might!
I think Novak or Federer would win the title but maybe Rafa might surprise us all.
Yes, Rafa came into the AO rusty after one injury after another since September last year so it’s understandable that hopes weren’t high for his prospects here. I wasn’t too pessimistic about his fitness because reading between the lines of what he said in Sydney, I got the impression that he was saving himself for the AO. He didn’t want to rush into competitive play whilst he was going through rehabilitation, in Abu Dhabi, he said he wanted to take it step by step.
Sitting courtside in Abu Dhabi, he looked fit and well but he was constantly looking at his team and not chasing any balls. He was playing but not competition. He left the court at every changeover which made me think he had some kind of stomach bug, but it was his thigh that was bothering him. I honestly think that he only turned up in Abu Dhabi in order not to let the tournament and the fans down. In his autograph signing session, he looked preoccupied, probably feeling sorry that his fans were going to be disappointed because he wasn’t there to win it. I don’t think he planned to play more than one match anyway. I think he would still have pulled out even if he’d beaten Kevin. In the Gulf News, he said he didn’t plan to spend that long on court.
He is playing well and doesn’t seem hampered at all. So far so good. Hope that continues. One match at a time and fingers crossed that he, at least, stays fit throughout the whole tournament.
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he was playing but not competing.
Super Excited for this week!!
Personally, while I have to give Novak the slight edge just because he’s won the last 2 majors, I believe that Rafa has just as good of a chance as anyone to win this AO title. I know that not everyone agrees, but I thought that Rafa looked extremely good at both 2018 and 2017 AO. We know he played great in 2017 because he barely lost the final, and last year I thought he was playing really well- well enough to have won the title. The problem to me was just that it gets harder and harder for Rafa to play that intensely in best-of-5 on hardcourts without avoiding nagging injury. It happened at both AO and US last year.
If he can just get to the QF without those nagging injuries popping up, and STAY un-injured, I think Rafa would be really difficult to beat. As well as Fed has done in recent years to find a winning formula against Rafa, I just don’t see how his age factor can be avoided much longer, if at all.
Typically I would slightly favor Fed in a potential SF matchup on a court like AO, particularly given the last few results of their matches on courts like this. But in this case, I think I would have to favor Rafa slightly because I just have too much doubt that, at age 37 1/2, Fed can sustain the same physical and mental level that he could sustain at age 35 1/2. I understand that Fed doing what he did even at age 35 was completely unprecedented in the modern era, but once every human being gets to age 35, every year that follows MUST bring a dip in physical ability. And with that dip usually comes a dip in mental ability. We have witnessed these dips from Fed over the last year- and its only going to get worse. When it comes down to it, I just don’t know if I can bring myself to expect a guy who is pushing 38 years old to beat Rafa or Novak in a best-of-5 match. Others may have more faith in that regard, but I just don’t. It’s never been done. Quite frankly, the only reason I am giving Fed any realistic chance or winning a 3rd straight AO is simply because he has not lost there since 2016. That should earn any player respect, and acknowledgment that they have a shot, even if he’s pushing 38.
As for a potential Rafa-Novak final, I would have to slightly favor Novak for the obvious reasons. One being that he has won the last two majors, and beat Rafa en route to one of them. But also because it’s the AO we’re talking about, and despite falling flat the last two years, when he is in good form the AO has historically been Novak’s stomping grounds. Rafa went two years without winning RG, and then once he found his game again he started owning RG all over again. I feel the same way about Novak at the AO. He was struggling and lost two years in a row. But now he’s back, and he will be hungrier than ever to reclaim his AO throne…. HOWEVER, as I previously stated, I think Rafa has been awesome at AO the last two years, and HE will be hungrier than ever to get that elusive 2nd AO title.
I seriously think that if we got a Rafa-Novak AO Final again that it would be SO EPIC! Think about what the stakes would be for them! If Rafa won, he would not only get the career double grand slam, but he will also have beaten Novak at all 4 majors. Winning a 2nd AO title over Novak would be a serious boost for Rafa’s legacy. And Novak would know this going into it, so he would be super motivated, too. Also, Novak would know that if he can go into RG as the winner of the last 3 majors, he would have a good shot at getting a 2nd non-calendar year Grand Slam. So there would be so much on the line for them, and it would be awesome!
Rafa didn’t lose twice in a row at RG before winning last year, he withdrew after the 2nd round in 2016 with a wrist injury. Rafa is playing well but as long as Fed and Djoker are still in the draw, I will have to hold my horses about him winning the title. All three of them are capable of toppling each other. It’s ridiculous to say that Djokovic is definitely the favourite should he meet Roger or Rafa.
Djoker has won the AO 5 times in the last 8 years, at the same time, Rafa has been injured there about 6 times since he won it in 2010, either pulling out during a match or not playing at all so it’s not because Rafa is not good enough to win it. He came very close in 2012 and 2017 when he lost in 5 sets to Djokovic and Federer respectively. The fact that Djoko is 1-6 against Rafa at RG and has only won it once, doesn’t prevent people from picking him to win it. That’s fine because he is capable of winning it and nothing is guaranteed even for the 11 times champion.
I think people get confused when I say some should be slightly favored… It would be ridiculous to say that Novak should be heavily favored in a potential final with Rafa or Fed. But surely it wouldn’t be ridiculous to say that Novak should be SLIGHTLY favored, right? If a guy has won the last two majors, and has never lost to either Rafa or Fed at this tournament since 2007, then how would he not at least be a 51/49 percent favorite? If someone is favored slightly, then that’s still basically a toss-up, which means that Rafa could very well win! Not sure why some people think that being slightly favored means they are any sort of lock to win…
Too early to talk about that, things normally won’t pan out the way we expect them. How many epics the three ATGs could produce any more?
Imo should Rafa get to meet Djoko, I’m sure he’ll be super aggressive, and a super aggressive Rafa is hard to beat, but a lot have to depend on how they get there. If Rafa has to get through a few five setters, I think physically he’ll be affected, Djoko may too but Djoko without any knee issue, unlike Rafa, won’t be that much affected imo.
Djokovic’s draw looks easy to be honest. I think his SF wont be a torrid affair unlike the other second of the draw.
We never know how the draw would unfold but I would say Djoker looks like the favorite if I have to pick one.
Yeah, with Stan gone (he’s still not back to his good level of the past), Sasha having to go five sets to beat Chardy, there’s no one who’s really a big threat to him in his half of the draw.
If he draws Cilic in the QF and then Fed in the SF, then I would say he has a tough draw but now both of them in the other half, so Djoko imo has a relatively easier or easiest draw among the big three.
I feel whoever draws Sasha in his half of the draw may have it easier at the slams. It’s not unlike long time ago when we had Davydenko as no.4 and the big three occupying the top three positions, until Murray came along and became a solid no.4.
Even Fed and Rafa both have to go through tough opponents at least now. Fed’s draw at the moment looks very tough but then you never know.
I think if DelPo had been fit he could have posed a bigger threat to Djoker.
Given that the 3 GOATs are not that young anymore we can see upsets especially with younger guys getting slightly better. But still I firmly believe that the winner would be one of the 3 GOATs as its very difficult to get on a roll.
Do you think Sasha just has slams in his head now? All these needless 5 setters! He tends to get 2 sets up and then starts playing not to lose, while his opponent starts playing like he’s got nothing to lose. Not good.