In a significant change dating back to last season, Masters 1000 tournaments in Madrid and Rome are now two-week events instead of one and the draw sizes have increased to 96 (the 32 seeds get byes in a bracket of 128). Yes, that means they are on par with Indian Wells and Miami.
Madrid’s prestige was not enough to lure Novak Djokovic into the field, as he is skipping it for a second consecutive year. However, a couple of the biggest names are on tour are back after missing Madrid in 2023: Rafael Nadal and Jannik Sinner. Those two guys are obviously at very different points in their careers. Nadal is presumably making his final appearance in Madrid and doesn’t figure to be a real contender, while Sinner is the undisputed best player in the world right now and unquestionably the title favorite.
Before main-draw action gets underway on Wednesday, it’s time to break down the second of three clay-court Masters 1000 tournaments.
Mutua Madrid Open
Where: Madrid, Spain
Surface: Clay
Prize money: 7,877,020 Euros
Points: 1,000
Top seed: Jannik Sinner
Defending champion: Carlos Alcaraz
Draw analysis: With Djokovic having withdrawn and Carlos Alcaraz dealing with a right-arm injury, can anyone stop Sinner? We find out the answer to that question sooner rather than later, because Sinner’s side of the draw is stacked. To say that he doesn’t have an easy path to the final would be a gross understatement. The top half also includes Daniil Medvedev, Casper Ruud, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Grigor Dimitrov. Ruud and Tsitsipas just faced each other in back-to-back clay-court finals in Monte-Carlo and Barcelona, while Dimitrov has been red hot throughout the 2024 campaign. Sinner could run into either Ruud or Dimitrov in the quarterfinals.
The Medvedev-Tsitsipas section probably won’t end up producing a quarterfinal showdown between those two rivals. Medvedev may have to go up against Sebastian Korda in the third round and the American has given the Russian all kinds of problems in the past. Tsitsipas, who has to be fatigued following a title in Monte-Carlo and a runner-up showing in Barcelona, likely awaits Dusan Lajovic in his opening match. That would be a rematch of the Barcelona semifinals, won by the Greek in three tough sets.
At the bottom of the bracket, Alcaraz returns to the court after missing both Monte-Carlo and Barcelona. The 20-year-old is the two-time defending champion in Madrid, but he isn’t the favorite in 2024 given his health status along with Sinner’s incredible hot streak. Alcaraz beat surprising finalist Jan-Lennard Struff for the title last spring and the Spaniard could meet the Munich champion in the fourth round of this year’s event.
Alexander Zverev, Hubert Hurkacz, Holger Rune, and a struggling Andrey Rublev also find themselves in Alcaraz’s half.
Meanwhile, Nadal’s comeback continues with a first-round matchup against 16-year-old American Darwin Blanch. The 37-year-old Spaniard returned last week in Barcelona, where he beat Flavio Cobolli 6-2, 6-3 before losing to Alex de Minaur 7-5, 6-1. If Nadal gets past Blanch, he will once again run into De Minaur.
In addition to Nadal vs. Blanch, first-round matchups worth watching in Madrid are Chris Eubanks vs. Botic van de Zandschulp, Tomas Machac vs. Emil Ruusuvuori, Alex Michelsen vs. Joao Fonseca, Gael Monfils vs. Luciano Darderi, and Denis Shapovalov vs. Facundo Diaz Acosta,
Hot: Jannik Sinner, Casper Ruud, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Hubert Hurkacz, Grigor Dimitrov, Alex de Minaur, Ugo Humbert, Ben Shelton, Jan-Lennard Struff, Mariano Navone, Alejandro Tabilo, Joao Fonseca, Matteo Arnaldi, Dominik Koepfer, Tomas Machac, Fabian Marozsan, Nuno Borges
Cold: Andrey Rublev, Frances Tiafoe, Francisco Cerundolo, Rafael Nadal, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Miomir Kecmanovic, Pedro Cachin, Aslan Karatsev, Denis Shapovalov, Dan Evans, Chris Eubanks, Botic van de Zandschulp
Quarterfinal predictions: Jannik Sinner over Grigor Dimitrov, Daniil Medvedev over Jiri Lehecka, Hubert Hurkacz over Fabian Marozsan, and Jan-Lennard Struff over Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Semifinals: Sinner over Medvedev and Hurkacz over Struff
Final: Sinner over Hurkacz
who ya got?