2016 U.S. Open draw analysis

The U.S. Open cannot be won or lost at the draw ceremony, but Andy Murray had to be considered an early winner at Friday’s proceedings in New York. Consider the other top title contenders: Novak Djokovic has Marin Cilic and John Isner in his section, Rafael Nadal and Milos Raonic could meet as early as the quarterfinals, and Stan Wawrinka’s nightmarish road through Flushing Meadows starts with Fernando Verdasco and will only get more dangerous thereafter. Murray, meanwhile, finds himself in arguably the softest part of the bracket.

Djokovic’s quarter

Barring a serious problem with Djokovic’s wrist that hampers him in the early rounds of the U.S. Open, this section does not have much to offer until the second week. But that is when things could get very interesting. Isner is a potential fourth-round opponent for the world No. 1, while Cilic and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga are also on a collision course of the last 16. Cilic and Tsonga faced each other in a contentious five-setter during quarterfinal action last summer, with the 2014 champion emerging victorious.

As for the opening week, there are two all-American affairs of note in the first round. Isner is kicking off his campaign against wild card Frances Tiafoe, while Jack Sock is facing Taylor Fritz. Tiafoe and Fritz are two of the host nation’s brightest rising stars, but is the future now? In the case of these two matchups, maybe not. As for Djokovic, he will begin his fortnight against disappearing act Jerzy Janowicz.

Best first-round matchup – (26) Jack Sock vs. Taylor Fritz

These two Americans will face each other in the first round of bookend Grand Slams in 2016. Their only previous encounter came at the same stage of the Australian Open, with Sock surviving 6-4, 3-6, 0-6, 6-3, 6-4. It was a grueling battle in which the veteran—relatively speaking—looked under the weather but managed to scrape past a younger opponent who was not yet ready to play a five-setter. In this one, the 54^th-ranked Fritz will be hoping to prove that the future is now, whereas Sock wants to keep himself in the discussion with Isner and Steve Johnson as the United States’ best player.

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Best potential second-round matchup – Guido Pella vs. Mikhail Youzhny
Best potential third-round matchup – (13) Richard Gasquet vs. (20) John Isner

Possible surprises – Unless either Djokovic or Tsonga is struggling physically, there does not appear to be any real room for surprises in this section. The fourth round will almost certainly pit Djokovic against Isner and Cilic against Tsonga. Round three, however, could feature a number of unseeded floaters. Among those with decent chances of advancing to the last 32 are Bjorn Fratangelo, Yoshihito Nishioka, and Pierre-Hugues Herbert.

Nadal’s quarter

Nadal should not have much trouble until the quarterfinals. The fourth-seeded Spaniard will open with Denis Istomin before possibly facing Andreas Seppi and then either countryman Albert Ramos-Vinolas or recent Olympic opponent Thomaz Bellucci. The Brazilian treated the home crowd to some early success against Nadal in Rio, but he ended up going down in three sets. In this Spain-heavy section, Roberto Bautista Agut is a likely fourth-round adversary for Nadal if he survives his first-rounder against Guillermo Garcia-Lopez.

Raonic is the 5-8 seed whom no one wants to see on the other side of the net. The big-serving Canadian finished runner-up to Murray at Wimbledon and is coming off a semifinal performance in Cincinnati (also lost to Murray). Raonic is in an eighth of the draw that is loaded with flair (Dustin Brown in the first round, either Benoit Paire or Marcos Baghdatis in the third round), but only Gael Monfils—if healthy—would pose a real threat.

Best first-round matchup — (10) Gael Monfils vs. Gilles Muller

On paper, Monfils should probably win this without too much trouble. The Frenchman is contending for a spot in the World Tour Finals and he has already gotten the best of two big servers this summer—Ivo Karlovic in Washington, D.C. and Raonic in Toronto. He also took care of Muller 7-5, 6-0 a few months ago on the clay courts of Monte-Carlo. All of that being said, Muller is no stranger to U.S. Open success. The Luxembourgian stunned Andy Roddick in the first round 11 years ago, made a quarterfinal run in 2008, and reached the last 16 in 2011. He is 27-18 this season and just barely missed out on a seed as the No. 37 player in the world.

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Best potential second-round matchup – (32) Benoit Paire vs. Marcos Baghdatis
Best potential third-round matchup – (5) Roberto Bautista Agut vs. (24) Lucas Pouille

Possible surprises — Look for the Monfils-Muller winner to do some damage. If it’s Monfils, and he emerges from that showdown unscathed in the physical department, there is no telling how far the No. 10 seed could go. Even the title is not an entirely unrealistic expectation held by anyone drinking the Monfils Kool-Aid. If it’s Muller, the Luxembourgian flag-bearer should reach the fourth round before likely running into too much resistance against Raonic.

Wawrinka’s quarter

Drawing Juan Martin Del Potro in the opening round was every seed’s worst nightmare. Wawrinka, who lost to Del Potro in the Wimbledon second round, at least managed to avoid that fate. But to say the Swiss still has a bad draw would be a considerable understatement. He has to play Verdasco in round one before potential battles with Alexander Zverev (third round) and familiar foe Nick Kyrgios (fourth round).

Del Potro, on the other hand, finds himself on the opposite side of this quarter and he could not have asked for a better spot in the bracket. The Argentine will start against compatriot Diego Schwartzman in advance of what would be a mouth-watering contest with Steve Johnson. Early last week, Johnson suggested that the USTA should give its wild cards to as many young Americans as possible and deny Del Potro a spot at risk of seeing an American having to face the 2009 U.S. Open champion in the early rounds. Well, it looks like Del Potro vs. an American—Johnson, himself, as it turns out—is exactly what will happen. A fatigued Dominic Thiem and a slumping David Ferrer are the top two seeds in this eighth of the bracket, so the Johnson-Del Potro winner would have a good shot at reaching the quarters.

Best first-round matchup — (3) Stan Wawrinka vs. Fernando Verdasco

Verdasco has fallen to 47^th in the rankings as he toils through the presumably latter stages of his career, but the Spaniard remains one of the most dangerous unseeded floaters in the draw. He is a decent 27-19 for the season and his post-Wimbledon summer includes a runner-up showing in Bastad and quarterfinal performances in Atlanta and Winston-Salem. Verdasco also leads the head-to-head series with Wawrinka 3-2, having defeated the Swiss 6-2, 7-6(3) two months ago on the lawn of Queen’s Club. Wawrinka is a mere 5-5 in his last 10 matches, so he is definitely on upset alert right away in New York.

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Best potential second-round matchup – (19) Steve Johnson vs. (WC) Juan Martin Del Potro
Best potential third-round matchup – (14) Nick Kyrgios vs. (17) Bernard Tomic

Possible surprises — Where to begin? Thiem overloaded his schedule throughout the first half of the season so he will be vulnerable in NYC, just as he was at Wimbledon. Potential third-round opponent Sam Querrey stunned Djokovic at that stage at the All-England Club on his way to the quarterfinals,so the American will not shy away from the big stage. The Ferrer-Johnson section may end up producing a third-round meeting between Del Potro and Fabio Fognini. Verdasco would have a decent chance to make a run to the quarters if he pulls off a first-round upset of Wawrinka.

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Murray’s quarter

Murray famously told Lukas Rosol, “nobody likes you. Everyone hates you.” Well, Rosol won’t like the guys at IBM for spitting him into a first-round match with the world No. 2 when the draw ceremony took place on Friday. It should not be a tough day at the office for Murray with Rosol on the other side of the net and the 2012 champion may not even break a real sweat until the last 16 (likely vs. Feliciano Lopez or Grigor Dimitrov).

The story will be a similar one for Kei Nishikori through the first three rounds. The world No. 7 opens with Benjamin Becker, has a qualifier in round two, and his nearest seed is a struggling Philipp Kohlschreiber. But Nishikori will likely be faced with a tougher fourth-round test than, for example, Murray. A red-hot Ivo Karlovic and World Tour Finals contender David Goffin will likely duke it out in the last 32 for the right to meet Nishikori.

Best first-round matchup — (16) Feliciano Lopez vs. Borna Coric

While they are separated by 15 years in the age department (Lopez is 34; Coric is 19), there will likely be very little between the two when they square off for the first time in their careers at the U.S. Open. Coric’s hard-court summer features a decisive fifth-rubber Davis Cup victory over Sock, which put Croatia in the semifinals, and a recent quarterfinal run in Cincinnati. Lopez won the Gstaad title last month, finished runner-up to Karlovic in his next tournament, and advanced one round in Cincinnati before succumbing to Dimitrov in a third-set tiebreaker. This showdown should be high on both quality and entertainment.

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Best potential second-round matchup – (22) Grigor Dimitrov vs. Jeremy Chardy
Best potential third-round matchup – (12) David Goffin vs. (21) Ivo Karlovic

Possible surprises — Not too much unlike Thiem, Goffin has cooled off just a little bit since a blistering first half of the year. Winston-Salem semifinalist Viktor Troicki could take advantage in the second round, in which case a second-week appearance would become likely for the Serb. But Coric may have an even better chance than Troicki of becoming a week-two participant. In addition to his relatively surprising Davis Cup win over Sock on American soil, the teenager upset Kyrgios in Cincinnati. If Coric can take out Lopez right away, the door will open—and it will open wide.

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