2014 French Open draw analysis

Last year, Rafael Nadal was left at the mercy of the French Open draw as the No. 3 seed. Or, more accurately, the draw was at the mercy of Nadal and Novak Djokovic. They did, in fact, land on the same side and–as expected–their titanic semifinal showdown proved to be the real title match just a few days too early.

This year, there is no such skewing of the bracket. Nadal and Djokovic are in opposite halves as the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds, respectively, and even beyond that it is a balanced draw. Nadal has 2013 runner-up David Ferrer in his section, Djokovic’s quarter is loaded with talent in the form of Milos Raonic and Kei Nishikori, Stanislas Wawrinka is with Andy Murray, and Roger Federer could see Tomas Berdych, John Isner, and/or Ernests Gulbis prior to the semifinals.

Nadal’s quarter

Two of the three players to whom Nadal has lost on clay this season join him in the top quarter of the draw. Ferrer took down his heavily-favored countryman in Monte-Carlo, while another Spaniard–Nicolas Almagro–pulled off the upset in Barcelona. Nadal could face Almagro in the Roland Garros fourth round and Ferrer in the quarterfinals.

What the top seed will like about his path is a routine first-rounder against American wild card Robby Ginepri and that his nearest seed is an ice-cold Vasek Pospisil. A second-round date with Dominic Thiem will provide the 20-year-old Austrian with a big stage for a potential coming out party, but Nadal will be able to withstand the flashes of brilliance. The in-form and super-talented Grigor Dimitrov could usurp Ferrer as Nadal’s quarterfinal adversary, but we saw the different between Dimitrov vs. Nadal on hard courts (Australian Open) and Dimitrov vs. Nadal on clay (Rome). Hint: bad news for the Bulgarian.

Best first-round matchup — (32) Andreas Seppi vs. Santiago Giraldo

Talk about ironic. Giraldo was one spot away from being seeded at Roland Garros. It turns out not to have mattered at all, as he is going up against the man who snagged the 32nd and final seed by 32 ranking points. Interestingly, Seppi and Giraldo have never faced each other. This should be an ideal setting for their first-ever meeting, with Giraldo in great form at the moment and Seppi an accomplished competitor in Grand Slams. Additionally, both players are solid on clay.

Best potential second-round matchup – (1) Rafael Nadal vs. Dominic Thiem
Best potential third-round matchup – (16) Tommy Haas vs. (21) Nicolas Almagro

Possible surprises – Nadal vs. Thiem obviously won’t be the most competitive match of the second round, but–if it happens–should be wildly entertaining. Anyone who has not yet caught a glimpse of Thiem this season could be surprised, and he actually has the kind of game (similar to that of his good friend Gulbis) that can trouble the world No. 1. Meanwhile, an Almagro vs. Tommy Haas third-round showdown would be enticing but is far from a lock. Both veterans are question marks right now, so don’t be shocked if someone like Federico Delbonis or Steve Johnson steals the spot in the round of 16.

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Wawrinka’s quarter

Will Wawrinka channel his inner California Chrome and win the first two legs of the whole shebang (in Wawrinka’s case, of course, he would need four compared to Chrome’s three)? The chances are obviously not good. His shot at another Grand Slam semifinal, however, is by no means a long one. The section section is loaded with talent, but also riddled with even more question marks. The jury is still out on Murray on clay, Frenchmen Richard Gasquet and Gael Monfils do not appear to be 100 percent, and Fabio Fognini has cooled off.

As long as Wawrinka gets through an opener with Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, who is skilled on clay and prone to the random upset from out of left field, the Swiss should be home free to the second week. Things could get tricky at that point if either Monfils or Fognini has woken up prior to the fourth round. Meanwhile, an interesting four-man section features Gasquet, Bernard Tomic, Lleyton Hewitt, and Carlos Berlocq. If Gasquet’s back is still an issue, the door will be open.

Best first-round matchup — (24) Fernando Verdasco vs. (WC) Michael Llodra

This could end up being a rout, but it also has some potential if Llodra comes to play. The 34-year-old Frenchman is mostly focusing on doubles right now. On the singles circuit, he has won just a single match since Marseille back in February (and that came against a hopeless Jerzy Janowicz in Monte-Carlo). On the bright side, Llodra is a respectable 2-3 lifetime against Verdasco and even though clay is far from his best surface, he has been to the fourth round of Roland Garros on two different occasions.

Best potential second-round matchup – (12) Richard Gasquet vs. Lleyton Hewitt
Best potential third-round matchup – (14) Fabio Fognini vs. (23) Gael Monfils

Possible surprises — Monfils and Fognini are the two biggest figurative wild cards in the entire draw and they just so happen to have landed as close as seeds can get to each other–on course for a third-round encounter. Monfils is once again struggling with physical problems and Fognini’s flames have been doused since a fast start to 2014. None of the unseeded floaters in their 16th of the bracket are particularly dangerous, so if Monfils or Fognini somehow stumble in the first week, there will be a serious underdog in the last 16. In the Murray-Wawrinka quarter, however, both the Frenchman and the Italian have semifinal potential…if they are right physically and mentally.

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Federer’s quarter

In general, Federer heats up as majors progress toward the latter stages. He will be well-served over the next fortnight if that trend continues. The 2009 French Open champion should be able to sleepwalk through his first three matches, but that’s when it could get difficult. Gulbis, a current Nice finalist and possible fourth-round adversary for Federer, is playing the most consistent tennis of his career. Potential quarterfinal opponents include Berdych and Isner. Berdych often gives the Swiss problems and who wants to play Isner?

Watch out, though, for Roberto Bautista Agut. One of 2014’s breakout players has a dream draw through two rounds and will likely face Berdych in the last 32. They squared off earlier this spring on the Czech’s preferred hard-court surface in Indian Wells and Bautista Agut won in three sets. Gulbis, too, cannot overlook the early rounds. He is historically poor at slams and he recently blew a match point in a Miami loss to likely second-round opponent Julien Benneteau.

Best first-round matchup — (15) Mikhail Youzhny vs. Pablo Carreno Busta

Carreno Busta, a dominant force on the Challenger circuit in 2013, has struggled to make the transition to the ATP level. The 22-year-old Spaniard, however, at least managed to reach the Casablanca quarterfinals and the third round of Monte-Carlo as a qualifier earlier this spring. Will his clay-court prowess help make this one interesting, or will Youzhny have way too much Grand Slam experience? Youzhny has also been inconsistent at best this season, but he should take heart from having pushed Nadal to three sets last week in Rome.

Best potential second-round matchup – (17) Tommy Robredo vs. Albert Montanes
Best potential third-round matchup – (6) Tomas Berdych vs. (27) Roberto Bautista Agut

Possible surprises — The Wawrinka and Federer quarters were always going to be the most wide open of the four. Friday’s draw ceremony only exacerbated that fact. While talents like Monfils and Fognini are with Wawrinka, Gulbis and Isner loom large near Federer. Berdych is also vulnerable on clay, making the top two seeds in this section less than scary (at least less than, say, Federer in his prime). Gulbis and Isner generally underwhelm at slams, but if their serves are working, one of the two could reach a first-ever major semifinal. Also watch out for Bautista Agut against Berdych in the third round. If RBA beats him (again), there is no telling how far the Spaniard could go.

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Djokovic’s quarter

No part of the draw is more intriguing than the top half of Djokovic’s quarter. Who will earn the right to play–and lose–to the Serb in the last eight? Who knows. Contenders include Raonic, Nishikori, and Alexandr Dolgopolov. Raonic extended Djokovic to three sets in Rome, Nishikori is the hottest player on tour outside of the world No. 2, and Dolgopolov stunned Nadal in Indian Wells. Even Gilles Simon, the other seed in this eighth, showed signs of his 2008 self in a Rome three-setter against Nadal.

As for the other part of the section, anyone who has been following tennis in 2014 will not overreact to a potential fourth-round clash between Djokovic and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. The Frenchman, a 2013 Roland Garros semifinalist, is woefully out of form. Jeremy Chardy in the second round and Marin Cilic in the third round will make Djokovic work, but neither one is particularly dangerous in a best-of-match on red dirt.

Best first-round matchup — (13) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs. Edouard Roger-Vasselin

Tsonga is 6-0 lifetime in the head-to-head series between the two Frenchman. But all is not lost for Roger-Vasselin. Three of their four matches since the start of the 2013 season have gone to three sets, including earlier this year in Marseille and on the clay courts of Madrid. Tsonga survived, but he is still slumping down at No. 14 in the world. He is just 17-10 in 2014 and did not win more than two matches in any one of his three preceding clay-court events. Roger-Vasselin has been dealt a ton of tough draws of late, so he has plenty of experience against the best players in the world.

Best potential second-round matchup – (29) Gilles Simon vs. Alejandro Gonzalez
Best potential third-round matchup – (9) Kei Nishikori vs. (20) Alexandr Dolgopolov

Possible surprises — Djokovic will almost certainly take care of business in this section, even though it is not an easy one. What will be most interesting to watch is the battle to face him in the quarterfinals; a battle like to feature Raonic, Nishikori, and Dolgopolov. While those men slug it out, the surprise could come among Djokovic’s potential fourth-round opponents. Tsonga and Janowicz are two of the most vulnerable seeds in the entire field, so their 16th of the bracket is beyond wide open. Look for one of two lefties–either Jarkko Nieminen or Jurgen Melzer–to convert the opportunity and reach the second week.

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