World Tour Finals title match preview and prediction: Murray vs. Djokovic

The battle is on.

For the first time in the history of the ATP Tour, a year-end No. 1 ranking will all come down to the final match of the season between the top two players in the world.

Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic will be squaring off for the 35th time in their careers when they bid for both the top spot in the rankings and the title of the World Tour Finals on Sunday. Djokovic is leading the head-to-head series 24-10, including 13-2 in their last 15 encounters dating back to the start of 2014 and 5-1 in their last six dating back to last fall.

They have faced each other four times this season, with Djokovic triumphing in the Australian Open and French Open finals in addition to the Madrid championship match. Murray’s lone victory came in the final of the Rome Masters.
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Since his Roland Garros loss to Djokovic, Murray has been the man on a mission. The Scot has stolen the No. 1 ranking from his rival by winning seven of his last nine tournaments–a stretch that includes Wimbledon, the Rio Olympics, and each of this fall’s Masters events (Shanghai and Paris). He is 49-3 in his last 52 matches dating back to Queen’s Club and 23-0 in his last 23 matches overall.

Murray is 4-0 this week in London, but it certainly hasn’t been easy. In fact, he has played the two longest matches this event has seen since it moved to the O2 Arena in 2009. Murray outlasted Kei Nishikori 6-7(9), 6-4, 6-4 in three hours and 20 minutes on Wednesday and saved one match point before winning a 5-7, 7-6(5), 7-6(9) semifinal thriller against Milos Raonic that lasted three hours and 38 minutes on Saturday afternoon. He also scored more routine straight-set victories over Marin Cilic and Stan Wawrinka.
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Also undefeated in London, Djokovic endured a three-setter against Dominic Thiem to begin his week and then needed two tiebreakers to scrape past Raonic. But the world No. 2 picked up the pace in a hurry to crush David Goffin 6-1, 6-2 and to clobber Nishikori 6-1, 6-1 in Saturday’s second semifinal. Nishikori had been coming off a three-set loss to Cilic on Friday night.

Now Djokovic has a date with another fatigued opponent–and with history.

“I must say that I’m very honored to be part of the history,” he commented. “I hear this is the first time in the history of the ATP that the two best players are deciding the rankings in the last match. That is something we should all be conscious of. I’m excited to go out on the court and battle.”
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“I don’t know how I’ll feel tomorrow,” Murray said in his press conference. “Obviously (I’m) tired just now because it was a really hard match. Tomorrow is the last day for a while; (I) get a break after that. I’ll just give my best of what I’ve got tomorrow. Hopefully it’s enough.”

Many thought Murray’s best–which has been on display for the past five months–would be enough this week. But now he is going up against the toughest of opponents under the most difficult of circumstances. Not only has Djokovic dominated their recent head-to-head meetings, but he is also an unbelievable 23-1 in his last 24 matches at a tournament in which only the best players are invited.

To be the best you have to beat the best, and that is exactly what Djokovic has done in recent years. He will likely do it again on Sunday.

Pick: Djokovic in 2

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50 Comments on World Tour Finals title match preview and prediction: Murray vs. Djokovic

  1. The smart money will be on Novak to win this final and reassert himself. For me it’s heart versus head. I would love to see Andy even n this. It’s been enjoyable to watch Andy play done of his best tennis in the second half of this tennis year. We need competition in the men’s game. I don’t want to see Novak dominating and winning everything next year.

    I think Novak is the favorite in this match. I would like to think that Andy’s tough victory over Raonic helped him mentally to be ready for this match. His fitness is unquestioned. So I don’t know that having a tougher road wil hurt him.

    Novak is looking more like his old self. Both guys have something on the line here. Novak has the advantage in recent match play.

    I am hoping for a match worthy of a final. I think it will go 3 sets. Against the odds, I will go with Andy for the win in 3 sets.

  2. Glad some of you aren’t betting with my money. You write a solid case for a Djokovic victory and then decide to fade him for some unknown reason. The Bleacher Report did the same thing.

    That’s a fast track towards bankruptcy in the betting game.

    Djokovic in 2.

    • Well, I don’t make bets on tennis matches. So i get to take chances. You can disagree with me as long as it’s respectful. Of course U would make the case for Novak. What I said was accurate, but I am sure that you have heard of the idea of an upset. If things always went the way they were supposed to, then sports would be very boring.

      Novak will most likely win, but this time I felt like goung with head over heart.

  3. I’m watching on TennisTV. Over the past few weeks is the first time I’ve tried Ttv and finally I understand who Margot is talking about when she says it’s, “Bouncy” and “Know it all” hahaha. Still, I’m thinking they are better than all the commercials on Tennis Channel or ESPN. Nice to watch the players on changovers again.

    Gosh I hope this is good.

      • Yep, I’m literally scratching my head here. Can’t believe the lack of energy behind his shots. He’s not injured…physically, anyway. Well…

        • well we rafa fans who have got used to him not being there mentally are used to this kind of thing. so much so that we can normally see it coming. looks like something is still very off with nole psychologically speaking. could feel it straightaway today…

          • And it’s disappointing for a fan. I did want to see Andy win YE #1 but a fan likes to see a fight for it. Oh my god, even when I think he’s going to win a point he misses the easiest shot so terrible. Utter facepalm

          • well in the absence of rafa i wanted nole to win. some dreadful tennis by him today. fine if he loses playing well but it’s just depressing to see this.
            also it isn’t good for the game to have a great big void at the top with rafa and fed out and nole on a strange vacation…no competition at all..

          • Why couldn’t Kei have got this Nole yesterday. Or maybe he really is this out of shape? Woke up tired from waxing Kei yesterday and Goffin the day before? Hitting balls short, into the net smashes, no fire, no moxie. nothing. uhg.

            I’m watching to see Andy hold the trophy.

  4. Wasn’t it Andy who used to say it seemed like Rafa never got tired even after long matches? Maybe people will think he is on something no? Karma.

  5. Djoko not playing well at the warm up tournaments really is hurting him now. No matter how good you are, you need match plays and wins to help you do well in the major tournaments.

    The same thing happened to Rafa last season during the clay season, not winning a single clay event before the FO and thus losing in the WF at the FO.

    Murray OTOH was winning tournaments after tournaments and so his tennis now looks so smooth and well polished. Goffin and a tired Kei made Djoko looked better than he really is/was. Murray is the first truly tough opponent for Djoko in this tournament.

    • yes! Muzz is the form player. But, it’s not like Muzz is outclassing him. It’s more like Nole outplaying himself from the match!

    • No kidding, Mark.

      Get back to yourself soon, Novak. Not time to quit yet.

      Biggest congrats to Andy Murray and his fans. Happy for Andy!

  6. Thoroughly deserving world no.1 ! Murray is a legend. Lots of work to be done by Djokovic if he is to retain his AO title.

    I say this every year and am saying this again. Never get carried away with the recency effect in tennis! According to most Novak was to be on par with Nadal or be on 13 slams and end the year as no.1. Things can change suddenly in tennis. Not saying Djokovic’s form has evaporated or something but it is a clear trend. When Nadal dominated 2010 people thought he was unstoppable.

    Let’s see what 2017 has in store for us.

    By the way, for those who might be curious, I have not been posting much as I have been really busy.

    Getting married next month 🙂

    Hope everyone is well.

  7. Let Federer come back to court first abhi and first win a 250 or too first. You straightaway hoping for no 18 which he has not in 4.5 years

  8. So Andy wins and so those who have faith in him are right. Congrats Murray, a worthy champion and YE no.1, doing it the tough way to dethrone the formidable Djoko.

    So happy for Andy Murray, when he plays like this it’s a joy to watch. Well done Murray.

    • Okay, now I get to gloat a little! I decided to go with my heart and gut and picked Andy! That’s why you go against the favorite! I didn’t risk any know bewhat on it because I don’t bet, so I could take a chance.

      I find it surprising that Novak has kind of dissembled since he won RG and the career slam and four slams in a row. He is just not the same player. Rafa fans are all too familiar with his mental struggles and also injuries. But there has been a kind of malaise about Novak in the second half of the year.

      Rafa’s problems didn’t happen after a great triumph. It was more of something building as he started getting injuries like the back and the wrists. But Novak was at the very peak of his career when he seemed to just lose the passion.

      I am happy for Andy because he’s had a long struggle and was in the shadow of Fed, Rafa and Novak for a long time.

      I want to see what happens when Fed and Rafa are in the mix again in the new year.

      • Haha same we picked the right guy lol. Logically Djoker was the right pick but I had a feeling Andy would find a way. Psyched he did!!

  9. Lesson from the match…NEVER UNDERESTIMATE POWER OF PURPLE PATCH IN TENNIS

    You may be tired gassed and opponent maybe fresh but when you on a purple patch you just win as you have skyhigh confidence beneath your wings ..rafa proved it in AO 2009 Nole Rome 2011 and Andy today where they were expected to lose due to fatigue but still win

    Congrats Andy

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