The battle is on.
For the first time in the history of the ATP Tour, a year-end No. 1 ranking will all come down to the final match of the season between the top two players in the world.
Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic will be squaring off for the 35th time in their careers when they bid for both the top spot in the rankings and the title of the World Tour Finals on Sunday. Djokovic is leading the head-to-head series 24-10, including 13-2 in their last 15 encounters dating back to the start of 2014 and 5-1 in their last six dating back to last fall.
They have faced each other four times this season, with Djokovic triumphing in the Australian Open and French Open finals in addition to the Madrid championship match. Murray’s lone victory came in the final of the Rome Masters.
Since his Roland Garros loss to Djokovic, Murray has been the man on a mission. The Scot has stolen the No. 1 ranking from his rival by winning seven of his last nine tournaments–a stretch that includes Wimbledon, the Rio Olympics, and each of this fall’s Masters events (Shanghai and Paris). He is 49-3 in his last 52 matches dating back to Queen’s Club and 23-0 in his last 23 matches overall.
Murray is 4-0 this week in London, but it certainly hasn’t been easy. In fact, he has played the two longest matches this event has seen since it moved to the O2 Arena in 2009. Murray outlasted Kei Nishikori 6-7(9), 6-4, 6-4 in three hours and 20 minutes on Wednesday and saved one match point before winning a 5-7, 7-6(5), 7-6(9) semifinal thriller against Milos Raonic that lasted three hours and 38 minutes on Saturday afternoon. He also scored more routine straight-set victories over Marin Cilic and Stan Wawrinka.
Also undefeated in London, Djokovic endured a three-setter against Dominic Thiem to begin his week and then needed two tiebreakers to scrape past Raonic. But the world No. 2 picked up the pace in a hurry to crush David Goffin 6-1, 6-2 and to clobber Nishikori 6-1, 6-1 in Saturday’s second semifinal. Nishikori had been coming off a three-set loss to Cilic on Friday night.
Now Djokovic has a date with another fatigued opponent–and with history.
“I must say that I’m very honored to be part of the history,” he commented. “I hear this is the first time in the history of the ATP that the two best players are deciding the rankings in the last match. That is something we should all be conscious of. I’m excited to go out on the court and battle.”
“I don’t know how I’ll feel tomorrow,” Murray said in his press conference. “Obviously (I’m) tired just now because it was a really hard match. Tomorrow is the last day for a while; (I) get a break after that. I’ll just give my best of what I’ve got tomorrow. Hopefully it’s enough.”
Many thought Murray’s best–which has been on display for the past five months–would be enough this week. But now he is going up against the toughest of opponents under the most difficult of circumstances. Not only has Djokovic dominated their recent head-to-head meetings, but he is also an unbelievable 23-1 in his last 24 matches at a tournament in which only the best players are invited.
To be the best you have to beat the best, and that is exactly what Djokovic has done in recent years. He will likely do it again on Sunday.
Pick: Djokovic in 2
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who ya got?
Murray in 3
Djokovic in 2, maybe 2 if he has a lapse in concentration. Its all about having something to play for and Djokovic has plenty to play for right now. He’s playing with purpose and is hitting through his shots a lot better. Murray has had a tough path, somehow surviving 2 matches that he probably should’ve lost. I think he’s luck will eventually run out in the final.
1.50 odds looks generous to me.
“Maybe 3”
The exact matchup they wanted with the “random” draw. I think Joker somehow takes it. Feel weird saying somehow, as in any year past we would all be shocked if Murray won.
Murray dominates the second half of the season …. constantly stressed on-court and throwing tantrums …. constantly outworking his opponents through long grueling weeks of tournament play …. achieves the #1 ranking …. heads to a tournament where the draw is against him and he is playing in front of his home crowd …. manages to win a match where Raonic served his best and played over his head during the volleys …. and all of this means nothing because Djokovic plays two good sets of tennis?
Nishikori was breathing hard in the first set vs Cilic yesterday … when they came to the courts today Djokovic bounced down the hallway …. Nishi looked visibly pained and walked slowly …. if you think Djokovic’s performance today makes him back to 100% you have not been paying attention ….. I certainly think they are both aware of the situation …. let me go through the checklist below on edges ….
mental : Djokovic has a love guru in his box and has shown mental weakness for the first time in years …. Murray is the more focused competitor and his on-court frustrations are not new and were present during his rise to #1 ….
serve : Murray has the bigger serve and has won a great percentage of his service points this week …. Djokovic’s current 1st serve looks like Murray’s 2nd serve …. these courts are fast which makes Novak’s excellent returning a bit less effective ….
Physical ability : Murray is admittedly the more tested player, having come through an actual draw while Novak played a cold Thiem (who took a set but played more like himself than he has of late) ….. Novak isn’t showing any signs of the supposed injuries Tennis Channel liked to guess that he had to explain away his losses ….. big edge to Novak
Djokovic may be the fresher player, but his game has NOT been on form lately …. I see his only chance here being if he carries over the sharp finessed play he exhibited against a faltering Nishikori ….. before the draws came out everyone was singing Murray’s praises ….. prior to the match against Raonic I don’t see what had changed ….. if his physical training isn’t such to endure that I don’t know whose is …. I’ll be taking Murray and will be taking the world #1 vs the world #2 at +175 anytime I see that offered for the foreseeable future ….
very good post…even tho i disagree
Tennis is a bit like boxing – if u take too much punishment in earlier rounds it comes back to hurt you further down the line. The 1 time Andy has beaten Novak this yr in Rome cumulative fatigue was massively in his favour – tomorrow it is massively against him and Novak will exploit that edge to win and reclaim world no 1 status
Murray approves of the boxing comparison
Agree. Djoko’s group made him looked better than he was. I mean Goffin? And then a tired Kei in the SF, after Kei’s grueling three sets match vs Murray, and then another three sets vs Cilic, and next day to play Djoko in the SF? Kei not known to have good physical fitness, as shown in his USO this year.
The only tough opponent in his group is Raonic and he barely beat him, both sets in TBs. Murray had himself to blame too for being too passive in his matches vs Kei and Raonic. I feel Murray had underestimated Raonic, having beaten him so often this season, but Raonic was on a mission (mission to take the YE no.3 ranking and reached the WTF final). Had Murray been more offensive minded and took the initiative to step forward instead of waiting for the ball to reach him at the baseline, things would work out better for him, rather than wasting energy to scrape through a three plus hours match.
Andys forehand has not been getting through the court this week which has contributed to his marathon matches with Kei and Milos – novak has been getting sharper all week and has a point to prove – 2 set win most likely outcome. May i ask if u bet on your predictions ricky ?
nope
but you guys should!
Going to be a tough and interesting match. Nole will not be sweeping through against stronger Murray though he played 3hours+ the night before. 60:40 at Nole advantage.
Been a lousy fall season. Not exciting at all. However tomorrow’s match is very significant. Kind of how it should be. 1 vs. 2 for #1 rank in the last match. Nole for the win. Beside Marcello Rios, can’t think of a more miserable diagreeeable disliked #1. Hope the reign is short and ends tomorrow.
#NeverHillary
#NeverAndy
Don’t think that’s a fair statement. I doubt Murray is that disliked by everyone, perhaps only by most Djoko fans when he dethroned Djoko.
You deserve The Orange Fuhrer.
#SilverLinings
Murray has played the best tennis of his life, but he’s had such a tough match against Raonic he might not recover. Djokovic in three.
I thin Andy will recover… that’s why they train… for games like these and to be able to play 3 matches in a row if need be… that should not be an excuse for today…
We all know Murray has come a long way. I’m not an Andy fan but give respect when it’s due and earned. This however will see exactly how far he has come against Nole in a championship match as well as number 1…
Even in front of his home crowd. .. Nole will win this match up. Just has a “purpose ” about him this week… can visibly see it
I am afraid it will be a lopsided match with Murray being fatigued and under tremendous pressure of home crowd and the No1…Murray did not impress this week! He could have lost to Milos if it wasn’t for Milos being mental midget in crucial moments…Novak OTOH has improved, had easy draw exactly what he needed to come to terms with himself. He seems to have resolved his personal issues and is back to playing his best tennis ( his last night performance was outstanding! No wonder Nishi was not able to do anything.,,.)
Novak in 2
Yes, Nole has improved as the week progressed. However, Kei hardly had the energy to walk on to the court after his 3 plus match with Murray. Murray’s best match was against Stan. Not sure Murray has the vigour to play Nole. Hope it is not 6-0, 6-0.
$5000 on djokovic lock
Djoker in 3.
Murray in three. I think Murray will summon whatever energy he has left to beat Djoko. I really hope he can, for who knows, he may not have another chance for YE no.1 so why not now?
Andy in 3.
bold
Murray isn’t playing his best tennis. It’s actually a mini-miracle he’s in the final.
I had money in him against both Nishikori and Raonic and couldn’t believe my luck when he won. Those 2 players are complete head cases and had the match in the bag.
Let’s see if Murray survives again in the fina with a against the strongest player mentally on tour with a 23:1 record on this court and with everything to play for.
Not to mention Djokovic’s complete and utter domination of Murray over the over the past 12-18 months. Djokovic has won 9 of 11 and had genuine excuses for losing the 2.
Djokovic has no excuses going into this final.
How can it be 23-1 record? Djoko had lost at O2 arena in 2009 to Sod; 2010 to Rafa and Fed; 2011 to Tipsy and Ferrer.
The 23-1 is over Djoker’s last 24 matches in O2, not lifetime.
Sorry, don’t see Andrew winning this one. His h2h vs Djokovic is poor and he’s got to be tired while Djoko has had easy wins and is more focussed and energized than he has been over the past months. I think Djoker in 2, maybe 3. Murray has been playing the best tennis of his life, but he has not had to contend with Rafa, Roger or the real Djokovic over the past serveral months.
nice line: “to be the best you have to beat the best”….but I think the best today is Andy Murray, in 3.
Get it done, Andrew Barron Murray! ?