World Tour Finals preview and prediction: Wawrinka vs. Nadal

Rafa in a good mood todayStan Wawrinka’s 2014 World Tour Finals campaign was nothing short of memorable, both on and off the court. One year later, his tournament should get off to a similarly entertaining start. On the other side of the net come Monday night will be Rafael Nadal.

Stan Wawrinka and Rafael Nadal will be squaring off for the 17th time in their careers and for the third time this fall when they kick off their weeks at the World Tour Finals with a round-robin showdown on Monday night.

They split their two most recent meetings, with Nadal dominating 6-2, 6-1 in the Shanghai quarterfinals before Wawrinka exacted revenge with a 7-6(8), 7-6(7) victory at the same stage of the Paris Masters. Their only previous encounter at the year-end championship came in 2013 and it also went to a pair of tiebreakers before Nadal survived 7-6(5), 7-6(6). Overall, the Spaniard owns a 13-3 lead in the head-to-head series–including 8-2 on hard courts and 2-1 indoors.

This season will go down as a disappointment for Nadal regardless of what transpires at the O2 because he failed to win a Grand Slam title or even a Masters 1000 tournament. That being said, the world No. 5 is in relatively resurgent form at the moment. In addition to his Paris performance, Nadal’s fall swing includes a semifinal showing in Shanghai and runner-up finishes in Beijing (to Novak Djokovic) and Basel (to Roger Federer).

Wawrinka’s year, of course, is highlighted by his second-ever major title at the French Open. The fourth-ranked Swiss also reached semifinals at the Australian Open and U.S. Open to go along with a trip to the Wimbledon quarters. He has plenty of momentum heading into London with a 17-4 record dating back to the start of the season’s final Grand Slam.
Stan
Neither man has ever triumphed at the World Tour Finals. Nadal, who missed the event in 2014 due to injury, is 13-11 lifetime with runner-up efforts in 2010 and 2013. Wawrinks is 4-4 in two appearances and reached the semis in both 2013 and 2014. He had four match points last year against Federer only to fall 4-6, 7-5, 7-6(6) in a semifinal thriller that featured as much drama in the post-match locker room as between the lines.

A relatively slow hard court that is reportedly identical to the Paris surface should be conducive to each player’s game and will likely result in another high-quality, competitive contest. Nadal will be well-rested this time around and may be particularly motivated for his first London appearance since 2013.

Pick: Nadal in 3

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33 Comments on World Tour Finals preview and prediction: Wawrinka vs. Nadal

  1. Rafa missed a huge opportunity to break Stan early in this match. Now he’s had to come back in his service game. But it’s nice to see him moving well and coming up with some great shots.

    • Koenig and Goodall were verbally slating Stan for his behaviour/performance I’m happy to say. Rafa did well to maintain concentration in the circumstances.

      • I was offered complimentary tickets for this year but when it seemed there was a risk Rafa might not play I decided the cost and hassle of getting to London was too great just before Christmas. Now I’m quite glad I didn’t accept. I’d just as rather not been in a 200,000 seat venue this week πŸ™

  2. These commies have to accept that when Stan beat Rafa there were extenuating circumstances. In Australia, Rafa was injured, This year he beat a Rafa suffering from lack of confidence.

  3. Courier and Annacone were extremely critical of Stan’s effort in this match. He just didn’t show up. But I will still take this win for Rafa! It has to be a good feeling to get that first win. A win is a win!

    I think the commies thought that Stan was tanking at some points in the match. The crowd didn’t get it’s money’s worth, that’s for sure!

    But Rafa got the win! That’s what counts!

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