World Tour Finals preview and prediction: Wawrinka vs. Nadal

Rafa in a good mood todayStan Wawrinka’s 2014 World Tour Finals campaign was nothing short of memorable, both on and off the court. One year later, his tournament should get off to a similarly entertaining start. On the other side of the net come Monday night will be Rafael Nadal.

Stan Wawrinka and Rafael Nadal will be squaring off for the 17th time in their careers and for the third time this fall when they kick off their weeks at the World Tour Finals with a round-robin showdown on Monday night.

They split their two most recent meetings, with Nadal dominating 6-2, 6-1 in the Shanghai quarterfinals before Wawrinka exacted revenge with a 7-6(8), 7-6(7) victory at the same stage of the Paris Masters. Their only previous encounter at the year-end championship came in 2013 and it also went to a pair of tiebreakers before Nadal survived 7-6(5), 7-6(6). Overall, the Spaniard owns a 13-3 lead in the head-to-head series–including 8-2 on hard courts and 2-1 indoors.

This season will go down as a disappointment for Nadal regardless of what transpires at the O2 because he failed to win a Grand Slam title or even a Masters 1000 tournament. That being said, the world No. 5 is in relatively resurgent form at the moment. In addition to his Paris performance, Nadal’s fall swing includes a semifinal showing in Shanghai and runner-up finishes in Beijing (to Novak Djokovic) and Basel (to Roger Federer).

Wawrinka’s year, of course, is highlighted by his second-ever major title at the French Open. The fourth-ranked Swiss also reached semifinals at the Australian Open and U.S. Open to go along with a trip to the Wimbledon quarters. He has plenty of momentum heading into London with a 17-4 record dating back to the start of the season’s final Grand Slam.
Stan
Neither man has ever triumphed at the World Tour Finals. Nadal, who missed the event in 2014 due to injury, is 13-11 lifetime with runner-up efforts in 2010 and 2013. Wawrinks is 4-4 in two appearances and reached the semis in both 2013 and 2014. He had four match points last year against Federer only to fall 4-6, 7-5, 7-6(6) in a semifinal thriller that featured as much drama in the post-match locker room as between the lines.

A relatively slow hard court that is reportedly identical to the Paris surface should be conducive to each player’s game and will likely result in another high-quality, competitive contest. Nadal will be well-rested this time around and may be particularly motivated for his first London appearance since 2013.

Pick: Nadal in 3

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65 Comments on World Tour Finals preview and prediction: Wawrinka vs. Nadal

  1. “Koenig and Goodall were very candid openly criticizing Wawrinka’s lack of professionalism and lack of respect for the paying fans.

    Similar criticisms from Tignor.”

    I think their criticism is disrespectful of Wawa! I didn’t see anyone criticizing Nishi for losing to Novak 6:1 6:1. That was, what?? expected? and where was there the so called” respect for paying fans”…

    Nishi certainly does not seem injured and is moving pretty well against Berdy…so the injury excuse will not work this time…It seems to me that some people almost give the right to Nole to destroy his opponents while Rafa shall not be allowed the same? Why is that?

    Tignor must have placed money on Wawa and lost…that’s it…and I hope he keeps on losing BIG money… 🙂

    • There really was no evidence that Nishi wasn’t trying against Nole despite the score.

      However it was obvious that Wawrnka on many points was just slapping at the ball, abnormally rushing between points, playing flat footed and sulking about the court.

      Nishi at least stayed positive and tried his best.

      • well, we will just have to wait for Rafa’s next match and see…

        I think Nishi just gave up against Novak but that is my own opinion and it might be wrong…however, everyone would have expected Nishi to suffer a beat down because his opponent being “Mighty Nole”…Rafa OTOH due to experiencing serious issues this year “was not the least expected” to beat Wawa easily…he was supposed to suffer, to make comebacks, DFs, to have mental lapses, to make errors…nobody expected Rafa to play well and block Wawa’s natural game…this is why I think people have rather distorted picture of this match…

        anyway, I am really proud of Rafa! I hope he proves that he can do it! I know he can…

      • Maybe near the end but it wasn’t obvious but Wawrinka takes it to a new level.

        I am also proud of Rafa. He is now beating the guys he should really not have problems with like he did earlier this year.

        The next step is the rest of the Big Four.

      • hawkeye,

        I absolutely agree with you. So did Courier and Annacone. So did the tennis channel commies have some kind of bias against Rafa, refusing to give him credit for playing well? Annacone has always been very complimentary about Rafa’s game. He continued in that vein in the match with Stan. But Stan’s lack of effort and spraying errors all over the place, was also acknowledged by the commentators.

        Anyway, in the end what does it matter what people say? Rafa won! What’s the big deal? No one is taking anything away from Rafa because overall he played well and won easily. Why is it so hard for some to acknowledge that Stan wasn’t at his best and did not give full effort? Both can be true.

        Then there are these same generalizations all the time. As a matter of fact, I did expect Rafa to play well against Stan and that’s why I expected him to win. However, I did expect Stan to put up more of a fight.

        I don’t ever remember the tennis channel commies being quite so critical of a player’s effort. Courier was especially harsh at times. Do they also have a bias against Rafa? I don’t think the world as a whole refuses to give Rafa credit when he plays well and wins. Stan’s serve stats were dreadful. The serve is the one thing that a player can control. So that is proof right there that Stan was off his game. It takes nothing away from Rafa giving a great effort and getting the win.

  2. ATP
    Craig O’Shannessy
    Nov 17 2015

    Rally Control

    Nadal was typically able to increase control as rallies developed, pressuring with superior court position, and getting the ball up high in Wawrinka’s backhand strike zone.
    After the first three games of the match, Wawrinka had made contact with 60 per cent of his rally shots more than two metres behind the baseline, to only 27 per cent from Nadal.
    Nadal’s forehand also had more spin on it than normal, averaging an astounding 3390 RPM’s. This helped push Wawrinka back, averaging hitting backhands 1.44m (4.7 feet) behind the baseline, to Nadal’s 1.19m (3.9 feet).

    All of these key metrics point to one obvious conclusion for Nadal – his game is getting healthier.

    The Spaniard was able to clearly frustrate Wawrinka, who rushed between points, and could not put together a clear game plan to counter Nadal’s key patterns. Wawrinka was often out of sorts, and Nadal must get most of the credit for that.
    The rebuilding stage for Nadal is now in full flight. Key patterns are being correctly executed, and confidence is building.

    “I go day by day, that’s all,” Nadal said in his post-match interview, clearly happy with his performance. That’s how a champion is made in our great game.

    http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/news/brain-game-nadal-beats-wawrinka-at-london-2015

    • thanks nadline…this is great reading…exactly what I was saying…Wawa was not able to play in his comfort zone due to Rafa’s top spins (which I noticed where higher than before)…it further made it difficult for Wawa to play his BHs freely…pretty significant change in Rafa’s game which made me think he was using a different racquet (which he was not, as augusta confirmed!) Wawa was pushed way behind the baseline and couldn’t defend…such a good play by Rafa…it is so unfortunate that people do not see this and do not give Rafa credit for it…

      Vamos Rafa!

      • Actually, that is exactly what I said Rafa was doing if you read any of my comments during the live blog for this match and also after Rafa won. I pointed out a few times how Rafa was staying close to or inside the baseline and forcing Stan to play more defensively. I also pointed out that Stan isn’t a great defender.

        Maybe if people read more carefully, then they wouldn’t jump to erroneous conclusions. Rafa has been given a good deal of credit for how he played.

      • @ nny,

        Your opinion is that Stan was not himself which is why Rafa was able to beat him. The same opinion we hear from the King of All Predictions his Majesty hawkeye… 🙂

        I think Rafa played well and that is why Stan was not himself, i.e., was not able to play his A game…simple as that…and that is how we differ…I do not see how I made “erroneous conclusions”?

        BTW, I did not even refer to your posts…I was reflecting to hawkeye posts and to those so called experts who were obviously not giving Rafa the credit where its due, but you jumped in…however, we are all entitled to our own opinion and discussions…no need to over react…I do not see hawkeye getting upset about any of it …he is just enjoying it and so should we… 🙂

  3. When it was put to Stan that he wasn’t trying at his presser he said that’s not the case that they won’t understand what it’s like unless they were on court themselves.

    Rafa knows that he beat Stan fair and square; if some people choose to qualify his victory I’m sure he won’t lose sleep over that.

      • hawkeye,

        Again, I agree! That’s also what Courier and Annacone were saying. They did everything but come right out and say that Stan should have been fined for lack of effort. But they were unhappy with the lack of effort from him.

        That takes absolutely nothing away from Rafa, who played very well. Now that I have seen Rafa, I am feeling better about his chances here. He’s continuing to be aggressive and staying close to the baseline. It’s paying off because his shots are much more effective than when he’s standing way behind the baseline.

        That lob he hit to win one of the rallies, was just insane! Oh and by the way, the commentators were effusive in their praise of that one.

      • It would be one thing if it was an isolated incident but everyone like Courier, Annacone, Mirka, Koenig, Goodall, Tignor, Fowler, etc. can’t all be wrong.

        Yep, Koenig gave full props to Rafa on many great shots last night and praised his professionalism in handling Wawrinka’s sulking behaviour. He is used to it by now.

      • Again, you are solely focussed with Mirka. It’s much broader than that. I don’t know why you are still focussing on that single event of so many examples.

        But speaking of,yes, Mirka was a professional tennis player and Fed’s manager. So I’d definitely put her among the likes of Koenig, Goodall, Annacone, Courier, Miles, Tignor, Fowler, etc. that have called Wawrinka out on his sulking.

        When Wawrinka complained to Layhani about Rafa taking too long last night, Koenig and Goodall rightly pointed out that he had no right to complain.

      • No he brought her up amongst a list of prior examples. It was about Wawrinka’s chronically poor behaviour.

        But you are making it about Mirka and focussing on her alone. Yet again.

        And therein lies the difference.

      • @ 5:56 pm,
        .
        Speaking of poor behaviour, I wrote at 6:11 that Mr. Tiggy continues to make attempts to justify somebodies poor behavior. You have been doing the same thing for a long time.

      • I’m sorry if that is how you still feel.

        Not in a long time I haven’t justified it. So why continue to bring it up repeatedly with nothing new to add to it.

        While her behaviour was definitely poor in the heat of the moment, the observation itself was quite accurate at the time and is shared by many tennis experts as being a chronic problem of Wawrinka.

        That was Tignor’s point. And mine. It wasn’t about Mirka.

      • @ 6:19 pm
        —Not in a long time I haven’t justified it. So why continue to bring it up repeatedly…—
        ===
        .
        What??? YOU have repeatedly justified her behaviour in THIS thread!

      • Not her behaviour I didn’t on this thread or in a long time even before site rules were established..

        But I do justify her observation along with everybody else mentioned.

        Her behaviour was wrong. But not her observation.

        Therein lies the difference.

        Again, it’s about Wawrinka, not Mirka.

      • @6:36 pm
        —Not her behaviour I didn’t on this thread or in a long time even before site rules were established..—
        ===
        .
        What??? What does her (Mrs. Fed) behaviour at the 2014 WTF has to do with the Site (The Grandstand) Rules!

    • nats,

      I am not overreacting in the least. I did say that Stan was not himself, but that is not all I said. I specifically made a point of saying that Rafa was standing on or inside the baseline and forcing Stan to play from further back. You are cherry picking what I said, without including all that I said.

      I do not think that Stan making 35 UE’s in a two set match means he was playing well. I do not think his serve stats were good at all. Well below normal. I believe he won something like 38% of second serve points. First serve stats were average. So he was definitely off his game.

      I have also given Rafa all due credit for his efforts. That may have caused some of Stan’s poor play, but not the serving and not that high a number of UE’s. Stan was spraying errors all over the place, to the point where the tennis channel commies were questioning his effort.

      I don’t know to whom you were addressing your comment because it was a general one to the effect of people not giving Rafa credit for playing well. I don’t know which people you were referencing. I merely pointed out what I said, which is not confined to simply stating that Stan wasn’t himself. There was more to what I said.

      I have never had any issue with you. I wanted to make a point, that’s all. You have been reasonable and fair, so there’s no reason for me to take any offense. 🙂

      • I was the first one to say rafa played well and he did some really good things. Positive steps. I was better able to analyze when I watched it on Tv.

        stan was NOT playing great. He just hit some good shots but misfired a lot . Rafa showed some really encouraging signs but , yeah, the lopsided scoreline is also a result of stan misfiring a lot… surely..

      • @nny,

        I never said Stan played well…I said Stan was not allowed to play well because of Rafa’s great game and tactics…that is all…

        I am glad Rafa is back to wining ways and it is all that matters…we all see his matches differently and interpret it in various ways…but all we care is Rafa beating his opponents and that we can all agree on!

        At least I have hawkeye admitting that he was wrong in assessing Rafa’s game vs Murray… 🙂 Gosh, he is right, isn’t he?…this site is somehow hawkeye centric… 🙂

        NNY, I respect your tennis knowledge and there is no reason to feel differently now…cheers!

  4. No one is qualifying Rafa’s victory over Stan. There will no asterisk next to his win that says – Stan didn’t play well and give full effort! It doesn’t work that way.

  5. @natashao2013 says:
    November 17, 2015 at 3:37 pm

    nats, you are spot on. Just read what Miles Maclagan had to say during the match. They all expected Rafa to go down and can’t accept that they are wrong.

    ‘Wawrinka attitude disappointing’
    Nadal beats Wawrinka

    Miles Maclagan
    British tennis coach on Radio 5 live sports extra
    Posted at 21:44
    We weren’t expecting that result at all. Wawrinka broke in the first game but then lost his serve immediately. It was a great tussle with Nadal asking questions and eventually he broke through and in the end it was a disappointing contest. Wawrinka’s attitude was disappointing tonight. He wasn’t prepared to put in the intensity needed to beat Nadal.

  6. Why would anyone expect Rafa to lose? I sure didn’t! I do think that the commentators and media thought it would be a more competitive match.

    I thought Miles made some good points about the match. I think that he and many others did expect it to be a more competitive match. Nothing wrong with that at all. He did give Rafa credit for how he played.

  7. Stan did a lot more than just throw his racket. He didn’t put full effort into this match. He seemed disconnected and not fully into the match. That’s not what Novak does in his matches. He at least gives a decent effort.

    Rafa has given Novak full credit for what he’s done. He’s got enough class to acknowledge what has been accomplished by his rival. I merely agree with Rafa! 🙂

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