World Tour Finals championship preview and pick: Djokovic vs. Federer

Novak Djokovic just tied his lifetime head-to-head record against Rafael Nadal on Saturday at the World Tour Finals. Now he has a chance to do the same against Roger Federer in Sunday’s championship match. Federer broke what had already been a tie by beating Djokovic earlier in the tournament.

Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer will be squaring off for the 44th time in their careers–and for the second time at these 2015 World Tour Finals–when they battle for the year-end title on Sunday evening.

Federer pulled ahead 22-21 in the head-to-head series by upsetting Djokovic 7-5, 6-2 during Group Stan Smith competition on Tuesday. The 34-year-old broke Djokovic a whopping four times in 10 return games and won a hard-to-believe 49 percent of the points even when the top seed put his first serve in play.

Despite that result, Djokovic has still won four of their seven meetings this season. He triumphed 7-6(1), 6-7(10), 6-4, 6-3 in the Wimbledon final and 6-4, 5-7, 6-4, 6-4 to lift the U.S. Open trophy. In addition to his London victory earlier this week, Federer also prevailed in Dubai (6-3, 7-5) and Cincinnati (7-6(1), 6-3).

When two rivals have faced each other on 43 previous occasions, there are certainly no secrets–especially not when the 42nd encounter came just five days prior to this upcoming showdown.

The only real question is which Djokovic is going to take the court. Aside from an opening beatdown of Kei Nishikori, the world No. 1 mostly sleepwalked through round-robin action. But when the tournament brought a do-or-die situation to the table on semifinal Saturday, the three-time defending champion picked up the pace and rolled over Rafael Nadal 6-3, 6-3.

“I don’t feel unbeatable, but it does definitely feel great when I’m playing the way I played today,” Djokovic said after beating Nadal. “When I feel like I’m dictating the pace, the match itself, most of the rallies, I feel like I’m on top of my opponent.”

Whereas Djokovic has been all over the map inside the O2, Federer has been rock-solid the whole way without any significant forays to one or the other extreme. The Swiss is undefeated at 4-0 with victories over Tomas Berdych, Kei Nishikori, and Stan Wawrinka to go along with his defeat of Djokovic. He dismissed his countryman 7-5, 6-3 in the semifinals on Saturday night.

“For me it’s an advantage because it gives me a bit of confidence,” Federer said when asked about what the Tuesday result means for Sunday’s final. “For him it’s an advantage because he gets a second chance. He’s played some great tennis since we played. So I still believe his confidence is slightly higher than mine.”

“We always play matches with a lot of tension,” Djokovic added. “There is a lot at stake. I know I have to be [in top form] in order to win against him. Hopefully I’ll be able to play better than [I did] a few days ago. But the performance [against Nadal] definitely gives me reason to believe that I’ll do that.”

The top seed was more motivated quite simply much better than he had been previously this week. Unfortunately for Federer, the same Djokovic will likely appear on Sunday and the same one cannot be defeated.

Pick: Djokovic in 2

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