World Tour Finals championship preview and pick: Djokovic vs. Federer

Djoker winsNovak Djokovic just tied his lifetime head-to-head record against Rafael Nadal on Saturday at the World Tour Finals. Now he has a chance to do the same against Roger Federer in Sunday’s championship match. Federer broke what had already been a tie by beating Djokovic earlier in the tournament.

Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer will be squaring off for the 44th time in their careers–and for the second time at these 2015 World Tour Finals–when they battle for the year-end title on Sunday evening.

Federer pulled ahead 22-21 in the head-to-head series by upsetting Djokovic 7-5, 6-2 during Group Stan Smith competition on Tuesday. The 34-year-old broke Djokovic a whopping four times in 10 return games and won a hard-to-believe 49 percent of the points even when the top seed put his first serve in play.

Despite that result, Djokovic has still won four of their seven meetings this season. He triumphed 7-6(1), 6-7(10), 6-4, 6-3 in the Wimbledon final and 6-4, 5-7, 6-4, 6-4 to lift the U.S. Open trophy. In addition to his London victory earlier this week, Federer also prevailed in Dubai (6-3, 7-5) and Cincinnati (7-6(1), 6-3).

When two rivals have faced each other on 43 previous occasions, there are certainly no secrets–especially not when the 42nd encounter came just five days prior to this upcoming showdown.

The only real question is which Djokovic is going to take the court. Aside from an opening beatdown of Kei Nishikori, the world No. 1 mostly sleepwalked through round-robin action. But when the tournament brought a do-or-die situation to the table on semifinal Saturday, the three-time defending champion picked up the pace and rolled over Rafael Nadal 6-3, 6-3.

“I don’t feel unbeatable, but it does definitely feel great when I’m playing the way I played today,” Djokovic said after beating Nadal. “When I feel like I’m dictating the pace, the match itself, most of the rallies, I feel like I’m on top of my opponent.”

Whereas Djokovic has been all over the map inside the O2, Federer has been rock-solid the whole way without any significant forays to one or the other extreme. The Swiss is undefeated at 4-0 with victories over Tomas Berdych, Kei Nishikori, and Stan Wawrinka to go along with his defeat of Djokovic. He dismissed his countryman 7-5, 6-3 in the semifinals on Saturday night.
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“For me it’s an advantage because it gives me a bit of confidence,” Federer said when asked about what the Tuesday result means for Sunday’s final. “For him it’s an advantage because he gets a second chance. He’s played some great tennis since we played. So I still believe his confidence is slightly higher than mine.”

“We always play matches with a lot of tension,” Djokovic added. “There is a lot at stake. I know I have to be [in top form] in order to win against him. Hopefully I’ll be able to play better than [I did] a few days ago. But the performance [against Nadal] definitely gives me reason to believe that I’ll do that.”

The top seed was more motivated quite simply much better than he had been previously this week. Unfortunately for Federer, the same Djokovic will likely appear on Sunday and the same one cannot be defeated.

Pick: Djokovic in 2

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49 Comments on World Tour Finals championship preview and pick: Djokovic vs. Federer

  1. Fed 4-1 vs Nole on BO3 hard court since last fall all four wins in straight sets.

    If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. This one’s easy peasy.

    In Nole’s own words, he’ll hand it to him.

    Fed in two.

    #HowManyTimes???

    • Absolutely spot on. It’s a best of three on indoor hard courts. Gives no added advantage to the younger Djokovic. Federer it will be

    • That’s my point, this is just a glorified exho for which Fed excels.

      Fed 3-1 vs Nole on BO3 hard court in FINALS: Cincy, Dubai, Shanghai.

      Plus one meaningless exho match early this week.

  2. I made my pick on the wrong thread. I am picking Novak in 3 sets. I don’t think this final will be decided in straight sets. I don’t care about the H2H. I don’t see Novak losing again to Fed. He’s capable of raising his level and going to another gear when he gets to the business end of tournaments.

    I also do not expect Novak to make as many UE’s as he did against Rafa. I think he’s going to be even sharper. It should be a good one, because both guys are playing well. They have been the two best players this year, so it’s only appropriate that they are in the last tournament final this year.

  3. Djokovic can match the Great Pete Sampras with 5 titles at World tour finals if he triumphs tomorrow, he hasn’t lost a knock out match since Cincinnati, no one has won 4 straight titles at WTF so that is added motivation for Djokovic. He played a high class match today expect more of the same tomorrow but Federer has a better serve so he can steal a set.

  4. Jeff Sackmann ‏@tennisabstract 26s27 seconds ago
    This will be the 5th time that Fed beats someone in the round robin then faces them in the final. He’s won 3 of 4–the loss was ’05 v Nalby.

    Will be 4 of 5 after tomorrow.

    • Gosh, I loved Nalbandian…his tennis was so unpredictable…he could beat just about anyone when he was on…I wonder where have the players like that disappear?…nobody to inherit him…weak era it is…

  5. before yesterday I would say Federer in 2 (Nole not playing great this tournament and Federer won against Nole this week), but now that I’ve seen Nole playing against Nadal; Nole in 2 sets. this was another level than his last 3 matches and he probably will play today like he did against Nadal so… Nole for the win.

    • Novak has been playing well against Rafa for a while now. He has Rafa’s game all sorted just like Rafa did for Federer’s game. But Novak has always had troubles against Roger and never could get too many wins in a row against Roger ever. Plus it’s a best of three sets so the physical conditioning and younger age won’t be to Djokovic’s advantage unlike the best of fives. So Federer should win this one

  6. I picked Fed in RR play but this is a final and Novak played really well against Rafa.
    I am also going with Novak in 3. Roger’s the only , though, who can beat Novak here.

    • vamosrafa,

      As usual, good reasoning from you. I also picked Fed in RR play. But we have seen how Novak raises his level when it comes to the semis and finals of a tournament. He did play well against Rafa, but that wasn’t his best. I expect to see that against Fed in the final. I know that it wouldn’t be shocking to see Fed beat him, but I am still going with Novak as I said previously on this thread.

  7. I apologise in advance for harping on about this but it enrages me everytime Djokovic is referred to as the reigning champion with ‘four consecutive wins’. This will be his fifth consecutive final and he is reigning champion by virtue of Federer’s withdrawal from the 2014 final. But he did not win the title. IMO the result should be listed as ‘Final Not Played’. It should not count when statistics are compiled for the Record Books.

    • Unfortunately, asterisk is not used in sport, certainly not in tennis. No one puts an asterisk when someone retires from a match it is put down as a win/loss. Of Andy’s 6 wins over Rafa one of them was when Rafa retired from the AO 2010 during the match.

      • Rafa was 2 sets down and 3-0 in the 3rd when he retired.If they start putting asterisk for such losses then the players will start retiring just before the match point to save their H2H record. If someone wants to retire they should do before the start of the match

      • I must be getting soft in my old age but I am hoping Federer will not be bull dozed off the court and when Djokovic wins he does not rub salt into the wound by succumbing to his former bellicose celebrations.

      • alpha25 (at 12:08 pm),
        —If someone wants to retire they should do before the start of the match.—
        ===
        .
        Rafa didn’t know before the match that he would get injured at the end of the 2nd set.
        ESPN, January 29, 2010: ¤¤ Rafael Nadal will miss up to four weeks of competition to recover from a knee injury that forced him to quit in the third set of his Australian Open quarterfinal against Andy Murray.
        MRI and ultrasound tests showed a small tear at the back part of Nadal’s right knee… ¤¤

  8. I so wish Fed to win this as he deserves it in a way…he beat Novak once and it would be so to say justly for Novak to lose this final…however, I really think that Novak is going to play his A game which he reproduced vs Rafa…he will be so high on confidence (if it can go any higher than this right now) and Fed as he grows older unfortunately shows tendency to stumble in key moments…

    Novak in 3 is my pick…

  9. Novak for the moment is almost unbeatable. The only thing you can do is congratulate him. But things are like this today. What Novak is doing is just amazing. It is obvious that it’s true if somebody can do it, it’s him, but it’s not easy to stay at that high level four years in a row or five years in a row.
    He’s hitting amazing. The return is always amazing. This year he is serving great. And then he is able to play with no mistakes and changing directions so easy, playing so, so long. He’s doing everything good.

    That maybe true,
    But Fed,
    In two.

    Un petite poem from le hawk.

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