Wimbledon SF preview and prediction: Federer vs. Berdych

Roger Federer and Tomas Berdych will be facing each other for the 25th time in their careers when they collide in the Wimbledon semifinals on Friday.

The head-to-head series stands at 18-6 in Federer’s favor, which is actually a respectable number for Berdych. But it has not been competitive of late. Since winning five times in the span of eight meetings from 2010 through 2013, Berdych has lost seven in a row against Federer and the underdog is 1-16 in their last 17 total sets. The Czech did, however, make things interesting earlier this season in Miami; Federer prevailed 6-2, 3-6, 7-6(6) during his run of consecutive Masters 1000 titles.

That came in a stretch that saw the fifth-ranked Swiss go 19-1 in his first 20 matches of 2017. After skipping the clay-court swing and losing his grass-court opener in Stuttgart to Tommy Haas, Federer appears to be back in the same kind of form. He is in the midst of a 10-match winning streak that includes the Halle title and Wimbledon victories over Alexandr Dolgopolov, Dusan Lajovic, Mischa Zverev, Grigor Dimitrov, and Milos Raonic. The 18-time Grand Slam champion is the only one of the four semifinalists who has not surrendered a single set.

Berdych had been mediocre at best prior this fortnight, to the extent that he still won’t be in the top eight in the race to the World Tour Finals if he falls to Federer. But a return trip to the All-England Club was just what the doctor ordered for the world No. 15. The 2010 runner-up and 2016 semifinalist is 42-13 lifetime at this tournament and is back in the semis following defeats of Jeremy Chardy, Ryan Harrison, David Ferrer, Dominic Thiem, and Novak Djokovic–the latter via second-set retirement.

Still, Berdych has not done enough to suggest he can take down Federer, which he did in the 2010 quarterfinals before upsetting Djokovic in the semis and losing to Nadal in the title match. Only his straight-set demolition of Ferrer was a particularly impressive result, and Ferrer is a shadow of his former self at 35 years old.

Berdych’s next 35-year-old foe, on the other hand, is aging like a fine wine. The 11th seed’s favorable draw has come to an end, and his 2017 Wimbledon campaign will likely do the same on Friday.

Pick: Federer in 3

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31 Comments on Wimbledon SF preview and prediction: Federer vs. Berdych

    • Just because Federer has won 5 matches easily, it doesn’t mean he will win another one or two easily. Imagine the first set goes to a tie break, and Fed loses it! Nerves will set in. And the fact that with all the “main” competitors are now gone, he is the overwhelming favourite, could add to the nerves further. It’s not that easy playing against a big serving guy. If Berdych gets into his groove, and if Fed loses the first set, anything is possible.

      • I think at his level having the main competitors gone is an extra reason to be super focused and motivated. It’s not that the best Murray or Rafa is waiting at the final.. it’s “only” Cilic.
        Just remember that game against Haas, I think Soderling won his game against Rafa when Roger was 0-2 in sets.

  1. This is not so much about who will win in how many sets, but has more to do with the amount of therapy Berdych will need to get him over his post traumatic stress disorder after what Roger does to him tomorrow.

    Poor Tomas.

    • I agree with you, Fg. I think there will be at least 1 tie-break. Berdych has a big serve, so if he has a good first serve percentage he could push it to a tie-break. Even though I think a straight sets defeat is the most likely outcome, I also would not be surprised if it ended up being a close match. As I’ve said before, Rafa and Novak each have the title record at one of the majors, RG and AO respectively, so I think it would be cool if Roger could be the lone record holder of Wimbledon titles. If Fed, Rafa, and Novak are going to go down as arguably the three greatest to ever play the game, then it would fitting for each of them to have the record number of slams at their respective best major tournament. And who knows- maybe Murray can win 5 more US Opens and then the Big 4 would all have the record at one of the majors (joke)!

  2. Berdych will believe mentally that he beat Djokovic which will give him confidence going into this match and the prospect of playing an opponent in the final that he’s capable of beating will motivate him more than ever to fight this tooth and nail all the way. This is familair territory for him also and knows he cant beat Fed in te latter stages of a grand slam and on this surface.

    Fed in 4.

  3. Somehow I wish Fed wins in 4. He needs a kind of ‘alarm’ to be more vigilent and alert in the final. I just want him to be ready for the final.

  4. Poor Berdych, what must and what can he do, in order to win a slam before he retires into the sunset? There’s always someone standing in his way whom he can’t beat.

    Cilic at least could power his way through to get his one and only USO trophy; Delpo too. Berdych plays a similar game and yet he couldn’t do the same.

    Even the late bloomer that is Stan, still could manage to win not one but three slams and two of which not on his fave surface! It’s not like Stan, Delpo and Cilic had it easy when they won their slam(s); they each had to beat either Fed or Rafa or Djoko, or even two of them.

    What’s wrong with Berdych, that what those three could do to win slams but he simply couldn’t?

        • Yeah but it seems to me that Berdych is more susceptible to choking than most other top guys. Double faults at bad times and crucial errors at crucial moments in a lot of his matches even when he’s playing well.

          • Perhaps he’s not good in his court craft, choosing the wrong shots, wrong timing or wrong placement of shots etc. I feel he’s not as good as Delpo or Cilic when moving up to the net, but right now he’s improving in that aspect of his game.

            I feel it’s his decision making that ls the main problem, other than his mental fragility at crucial moments. I also feel that he should also work on his footwork, train to hit with precision while on the run, that’s something the big four are doing so well, i.e. not compromising the precision of their shots even when forced to go on the run or being stretched out wide.

            Berdych is more unfortunate than Delpo and Cilic in that he’s born a few years earlier (3 years) and his prime coincided with that of Rafa’s/Djoko’s, while Fed was still going strong. He’s being in top ten for a long time now, much longer than Stan. Had he be like Stan, i.e. a late bloomer, he may have better chances, when he could capitalize on Rafa’s injury absences and Fed’s decline and only had Djoko as the main obstacle (Berdych used to have relatively good H2H vs Murray). Too bad, he himself is also on a decline.

            Both Cilic and Delpo, with their big game, will have better chances to win some more slam(s) as they’re younger and may outlast the big four in the tour. Berdych imo doesn’t have such luxury.

          • Good points. You’re right Cilic and Del Po still have time. Berdych not so much. I’ve always felt sad for him in this respect. Talent capable of winning slams or at least making more than just one final.

          • Yep, feel sorry for him too. Berdy played a good SF match vs Stan at AO2014, and lost in TB sets! Had he won that one and faced Rafa who injured his back during warm up in the final, perhaps Berdych would have won one slam (that AO2014) by now. Stan still have two slams with him even if he didn’t win that AO title. Too bad for Berdy, it’s not meant to be for him, Stan was simply unstoppable back then!

          • Well guys…Maybe i will sound a little bit mean but…i’m not feel sad at all about Berd…i mean,he’s on tour for how long?12,13,14 years?..he’s got all this years to improve himself…God!He’s one of the player’s that got the huge serve on tour..big,flat groundstrokes…all he needs to do is take care of his mental toughness,fitness etc that will take him to the same level as the Big 4…

            Rafa don’t have a serve like him…and so is Andy..but those guys still find a way to improve themselves all the time…take a look at Andy..only last year he can reach to the pinnacle of his career by reaching No 1 after been put behind by the Great 3 almost his entire career! ..and at the verge of 30 years old nonetheless…If Rafa,Novak and Andy can improve and established themselves after working so hard all this years,why can’t Berd?

            I know it’s easy to talk than to implicate things on court.but,if u choose to be a professional athlete,u have no choice but to find a way to make yourself success especially you’re already involve in this sport 12,13 years ago…

          • H’mmm, what is Berdy’s TB record? He loses a lot of TB’s to Rafa, I know.

            Berdy used to play a LOT of Davis Cup. He and Steps were virtually a 2 man team and won a couple. Wonder how much that took out of him in his best years?

            Eh, Fed in 3.

  5. Federer in three sets. It is possible that he might need a tiebreaker to win one of the sets. Roger is playing really well on grass right now. He was smart to skip the French Open.

  6. I want to give berd one tb. Although I still feel fed in 3 is most probable. Il say fed in 4 final answer with 1 tiebreak to berd.

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