Expert picks are back for the second week at Wimbledon, where quarterfinal action takes place on Wednesday. Spaniards Rafael Nadal and Roberto Bautista Agut have respective matchups against Sam Querrey and Guido Pella. The Grandstand’s Ricky Dimon and Cheryl Murray along with Mert Ertunga of Mertov’s Tennis Desk make their picks.
Sam Querrey vs. (3) Rafael Nadal
Ricky: I was wrong about Nadal vs. Nick Kyrgios, in that an absolute beatdown was forecasted. It turned out to be what is still the best match of the tournament. But Querrey isn’t Kyrgios; at least he’s not an Against-Nadal-Kyrgios. The 6’6” American will be somewhat competitive, for sure, as he has been broken only once through four rounds and is making his third quarterfinal appearance in the last four Wimbledons. But other than in round two, Nadal has been destroying people. Querrey, on the other hand, is coming off a tough fourth-rounder against Tennys Sandgren–a grass-court result that is less than encouraging, it has to be said. Nadal in 3: 6-4, 7-6(5), 7-5.
Cheryl: Ordinarily, I would surmise Querrey’s chances against Nadal as “slim.” But the American is playing some really good grass-court tennis this fortnight and Wimbledon is where Querrey is at his most dangerous, so a routine victory for Nadal is not a foregone conclusion. That’s not to say that a Nadal win isn’t highly likely. The Spaniard is playing magnificent tennis, seemingly buoyed by his second-round revenge win over Kyrgios. If Querrey serves well he could snag a set (or even two), but it’s hard to imagine him playing well enough to dispatch the world No. 2. Nadal in 4: 7-5, 6-7, 7-6, 6-4.
Mert: This is a solid test for Nadal, one that should provide for a close match but one that he should slip by at the end of the day. Querrey has won all of his service games but one (71 out of 72). He will probably only lose his serve once against Nadal, too (ok, maybe twice), but that shall be too many because he is unlikely to break Nadal’s serve. Nadal is quite successful, too, in this category (56 out of 59 service games held). On the other hand, Querrey is at the bottom of the pack out of the eight quarterfinalists in terms of return games won with an alarming 18 percent (13 out of 72). The Spaniard needs to keep a high first-serve percentage to avoid Querrey blasting returns for winners (whether he will make them consistently or not, that is another story). I believe there will be one or more tiebreakers, and if the underdog can steal one (or two) this could go to five sets, but a four-setter sounds more realistic to me. Nadal in 4: 7-5, 6-7, 7-5, 7-6.
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(26) Guido Pella vs. (23) Roberto Bautista Agut
Ricky: Bautista Agut has benefited from a favorable draw, but who cares? He has been awesome the whole, and he at least destroyed No. 10 seed Karen Khachanov during the first week. The Spaniard is 12-0 in total sets and only Khachanov managed to even force a single tiebreaker. Pella is making a quick turnaround after coming back from two sets down to stun Milos Raonic in a thrilling five-setter. It has been an incredible run for the Argentine, but it likely ends here. RBA is on fire, and outside of the Big 3 there may be no one on tour better at completely taking out an opponent’s legs. Bautista Agut in 3: 7-6(6), 7-5, 6-1.
Cheryl: Pella may have had the most impressive first four rounds in the entire men’s draw. He not only stunned 2018 finalist Kevin Anderson in the third round, but he also came back in the round of 16 to take out the 15th-seeded Raonic. The Argentine isn’t exactly a Wimbledon specialist, either. He’s played three other times, with a pair of first-round exits and a third-round result to show for his efforts. RBA’s first-week run wasn’t quite as impressive as Pella’s, but was close. He ousted Khachanov and then clobbered Benoit Paire on Monday. RBA has a 2-0 record over Pella and the Spaniard’s matches have been far more routine. Pella will fight hard, but RBA should come through his quarterfinal. Bautista Agut in 4: 6-4, 5-7, 6-4, 6-2.
Mert: Can Pella pull another one again? More importantly, does he have enough stamina left to take out a player who will surely not go down without a battle? You don’t win easy matches, nor do you get to win points short-cut points against Bautista Agut. You win, but you will suffer. Or he outlasts you, out-rallies you, and exhausts you. Pella has his hands full. RBA is the only player in the quarterfinals not to have lost a set. He will continue that streak today after a close first set. Bautista Agut in 3: 7-5, 6-3, 6-2.
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WYG?
Nadal and RBA, both in 4
Nadal in 5. Bautista in 4.
5…oh no..you want us to pass out is it 🙂
Rafa in 3
Agut in 5
Nadal in three easy sets, losing not more than 10 games
3 easy sets, lol! Are u trying to jinx Rafa?
Rafa in 3
Pella in 5. A heart pick, not serious, but I just love Guido Pella and want his exellect grass court game to continue. 🙏
Pella has now beaten Cilic, Anderson and Raonic at Wimby, so he must be doing something right. But he will be tired.
Querrey struggled a bit against Sandgren , so I cant see Querrey beating Rafa here , very different conditions to Acapulco where he did beat him.
Bautista in four , Nadal in five.
No he didn’t beat Cilic. He’s not in Rafa’s quarter of the draw. It’s Sousa who beat Cilic in R2.
Pella beat Cilic last year, the defending finalist.
I meant last year
I like him, but not this time. Screwed up my bracket 🙂
Pella that is
Pella screwed up a lot of people’s bracket and helped me stay in touch. All you Raonic pickers 😀
This match hangs on Querry’s serve; it’s pretty much as simple as that. If his serve is on (along with the second strike FH), then the match will take on the character of Nadal-Kyrgios in sets 3-4. Querry isn’t a great returner and Nadal has been serving extremely well, so don’t expect a lot of break points against the Rafa serve. If Querrey can’t bring the serve, the match will be over quickly. But if he continues to serve as he has been, Nadal will find it just as hard to manufacture BPs as he did against Kyrgios. Expect a lot of TBs, where anything can happen. Nadal in 5.
Querrey has had just seven tiebreaks out of 14 sets and broken just once in 16 break point chances.
Rafa plopped back on Court 1 to boot. All we need now is a closed roof ffs (with showers forecasted).
I wonder about this closed roof thing . Has Nadal a poor record ‘indoors’,ie when its normally an outdoor tournament?
RBA is playing the best tennis I have ever seen him play. Pella has been inspired, but I don’t think he has the energy left to make this competitive. Batista-Agut in 3.
Post from vamosrafa:
I was trying to post after the Kyrgios match but my posts were not going through. A bit outdated now but will share some interesting serving stats:
*posting under a different user until the issue with my account is fixed.
-Rafa won 82% first serve points compared to Nick’s 71%
-NK’s fastest serve was a second serve clocked at 143MPH !
-Rafa won 71% second serve points so his second serve was as effective as NK’s first serve!
I think Rafa was RUTHLESS against Tsonga. I had zero doubts about his chances against Tsonga but was still impressed with how well he played.
Rafa’s baseline game, return, serve as well as the mental game are on point and he is getting better and better.
I don’t think Sam can beat this Rafa. Rafa will land enough returns back and his ‘average groundstroke’ is too good to be overpowered over 5 sets.
I think Rafa wins this in 3 sets or may be 4 (could lose a tie break).
I am aware of the threat posed by Sam’s game on this surface but there I have total faith in Rafa’s game at the moment. I believe we are heading for a fedal semi.
Nadal 3-1
Bautista_Agut 3-0
Bautista Agut has a good chance of playing the sunday. He must have a quick match against a tired Pella and he play well against Djokovic but friday will be semi-finals (nervous? sure, he will be nervous).
Rafa in 3; RBA in 3
Rafa, good luck tomorrow! We all know you can do it……so just do it!!!
Querry will beat Nadal in 4 sets. His service is even 2 steps better than Kyrgios. Querry has actually NOT BAD ROS, and his tall stature and Nadal’s relatively NOT SO GREAT SERVE should let Querry creating decent BP chances against Nadal. Querry’s ROS is highly underrated. Against Peak Djokovic in 2016 Wimbledon, he won first service ROS almost twice more than the greatest returner of all time. Querry created staggering 19 BP chances against Peak Djokovic at that time. A bad returner can’t get that many BP chances on grass against the man who had won consecutive 4 grand-slams. You can’t bagel the likes of Theim on Wimbledon who has great service.
And Querry’s ground game is not that bad. WHEN HE IS ON, his ground can damage seriously on Wimbledon grass.
Querry loves grass and Wimbeldon, has already beaten the likes of Djokovic and Murray at Wimbledon. Only service can’t let you beat those Giants at Wimbledon. Querry also sounds mentally strong. Always sounds calm and how many times you have found striking ACES on Breaking Point?
This should be the toughest possible guy Nadal is going to face before Semi-finals. When Draw came out, more than Kyrgios and Tsonga, it was Querry who was the toughest.
Nadal is the best returner in the last 52 weeks. Querry lost 22 games against Sandgren. Querry only got 5 breakpoints in that game (nearly one per set). You can win against Nadal with only one oportunity of break per set. I think, that Nadal can do a best work than Sandgren. I think Nadal will win in 3 sets.
I would like to think you’re right (though I really want Fed to beat Nadal in the SF), but I can’t believe that this version of Nadal is only going to win one set against Querrey. Rafa is just playing too well, and I think it’s going to take Fed’s best to beat him. OTOH, Querrey is certainly the type of player to beat Rafa on grass. I suppose if he serves 90% 1st serves he could win in 4 sets, but otherwise, no, I just don’t see it.
90% first serves is not humanly possible over 4sets I presume. I think querry can give rafa a scare but ultimately rafa will figure out a way to beat him. Here’s hoping for the best. Vamos Rafa
OK, I’m officially in the frazzling-for-Rafa faction now, lol! Betting analyst Jean Calvert picked Querrey. I may have underestimated Querrey. But he has already seized the scalps of two Former Wimby champions now. It’s not impossible that he will go for a third. However, neither Novak nor Andy were at the peak of their abilities when Querrey ambushed them. Looking at his great performances so far, I still expect Rafa to win, since his variety and tennis intelligence is better than Querrey’s and he hasn’t spent a lot of time on-court so far, but it might not happen in three sets.
I won’t get worked up just yet, though, since I don’t have the time to watch or follow the match.
Are you sure that Calvert has picked Querrey to win outright? I know that before the tournament, he picked Querrey as the best bet to win his quarter (at 38-1). So if he beats Nadal, I imagine that Calvert and his followers stand to make a lot of money. But I wasn’t aware that he has picked Querrey to win outright. One thing is for sure: that guy has been very good at picking winners lately.
who?
Sean Calvert
https://www.cbssports.com/tennis/news/2019-wimbledon-odds-predictions-tennis-expert-reveals-picks-for-rafael-nadal-vs-sam-querrey/
littlefoot,
Okay I am with you! The nerves have started to get to me! I am not even going to bother with predictions. I just know that Rafa is as ready as he can be. He is healthy, confident and playing some stellar tennis. He will not underestimate Querrey. I think it will be a challenge, but Rafa has always relished it.
If necessary, I can hide behind the couch or switch the channel.
😳
NNY, so, expert Sean Calvert was wrong and our gut feelings were right after all ☺ – although the first set was tighter than it needed to be. I was busy all day and couldn’t even follow scores, so I didn’t have any opportunity for intense frazzling-for-Rafa.
Joe Smith, I think a good version of Federer is enough to beat Nadal at Wimbledon, despite of the fact current Wimbledon is almost playing as slow as RG, but relative low bounce and normal conditions should be enough for a decent Federer to beat Nadal in 4 sets, if not in straight.
Nadal is indeed playing a great tennis, but the outcome of the Fedal in semi-final will be likely same as Australian Open Final 2019, where it was widely made an assumption as Nadal being Favorite to beat Djokovic considering Nadal hadn’t lost even a single set but suddenly a straight set beat-down occurred in AO final.
I am not sure Federer will beat Nadal in straight set, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Federer beats Nadal in straight sets. I think Nishikori is going to give Federer a lot of practice to face Nadal, if somehow Nadal manages to beat Querry which I don’t think will happen.
Ordinarily I might agree with you. But I have been extremely impressed with Nadal in this tournament. He is playing ultra aggressive tennis to a very high level. And the slow court/balls definitely help him. I would be thrilled but extremely surprised if Fed delivers a Novak-like beat-down of Nadal in the SF.
I’m calling it now, it will be an all Spanish men’s final at Wimbledon this year: Nadal vs Bautista Agut.
And Bautista-Agut will win the trophy ☺☺☺
You should bet a small amount of money on this outcome now. If it will happen you will earn some bucks😋
Rafa will win. RBA is to Djokovic as Davydenko is to Nadal.
Hey, I was joking and I believe, you are joking, too, since the probability that both Spaniards make it into the final is close to zero😉 Bautista-Agut won’t beat the Djoker and Rafa’s Road into the final is rocky, too.
I will bake and eat a nice crow cake if I’m wrong.
Littlefoot….Why u said RBA won’t beat Nole?I mean,RBA has beaten him twice if i’m not wrong…so the posibility is there right?(if he get past Pella that is!)…
I also think that RBA has slowly become Nole’s nemesis,the kind of opponent that can makes him nervous & potentially can creates an upsets..tho it’s really hard to do that giving the form of Nole atm…
wow
I expect Nadal will have to face the Querrey serve in 1-2 tiebreakers, but it’s still Rafa in 3 for me.
RBA in 4.
Querrey is a poor man’s Berdych except that his first serve seems to be his only weapon, when he gets it in and his ROS is not very good. If he redlines like he did in Acapulco last year against Rafa, it will be a contest but so far, he hasn’t played that attacking tennis. If they both play the way they’ve been playing, Rafa won’t have too much trouble.
Querrey heads the leaderboard for aces at Wimbledon this year, with 100 aces but that’s with 2 of his matches going to 5 sets.
I think you mean 4 sets.
You’re right – 4 sets.
Querrey won’t know what hit him