Expert picks are back for the second week at Wimbledon, where quarterfinal action takes place on Wednesday. Spaniards Rafael Nadal and Roberto Bautista Agut have respective matchups against Sam Querrey and Guido Pella. The Grandstand’s Ricky Dimon and Cheryl Murray along with Mert Ertunga of Mertov’s Tennis Desk make their picks.
Sam Querrey vs. (3) Rafael Nadal
Ricky: I was wrong about Nadal vs. Nick Kyrgios, in that an absolute beatdown was forecasted. It turned out to be what is still the best match of the tournament. But Querrey isn’t Kyrgios; at least he’s not an Against-Nadal-Kyrgios. The 6’6” American will be somewhat competitive, for sure, as he has been broken only once through four rounds and is making his third quarterfinal appearance in the last four Wimbledons. But other than in round two, Nadal has been destroying people. Querrey, on the other hand, is coming off a tough fourth-rounder against Tennys Sandgren–a grass-court result that is less than encouraging, it has to be said. Nadal in 3: 6-4, 7-6(5), 7-5.
Cheryl: Ordinarily, I would surmise Querrey’s chances against Nadal as “slim.” But the American is playing some really good grass-court tennis this fortnight and Wimbledon is where Querrey is at his most dangerous, so a routine victory for Nadal is not a foregone conclusion. That’s not to say that a Nadal win isn’t highly likely. The Spaniard is playing magnificent tennis, seemingly buoyed by his second-round revenge win over Kyrgios. If Querrey serves well he could snag a set (or even two), but it’s hard to imagine him playing well enough to dispatch the world No. 2. Nadal in 4: 7-5, 6-7, 7-6, 6-4.
Mert: This is a solid test for Nadal, one that should provide for a close match but one that he should slip by at the end of the day. Querrey has won all of his service games but one (71 out of 72). He will probably only lose his serve once against Nadal, too (ok, maybe twice), but that shall be too many because he is unlikely to break Nadal’s serve. Nadal is quite successful, too, in this category (56 out of 59 service games held). On the other hand, Querrey is at the bottom of the pack out of the eight quarterfinalists in terms of return games won with an alarming 18 percent (13 out of 72). The Spaniard needs to keep a high first-serve percentage to avoid Querrey blasting returns for winners (whether he will make them consistently or not, that is another story). I believe there will be one or more tiebreakers, and if the underdog can steal one (or two) this could go to five sets, but a four-setter sounds more realistic to me. Nadal in 4: 7-5, 6-7, 7-5, 7-6.
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(26) Guido Pella vs. (23) Roberto Bautista Agut
Ricky: Bautista Agut has benefited from a favorable draw, but who cares? He has been awesome the whole, and he at least destroyed No. 10 seed Karen Khachanov during the first week. The Spaniard is 12-0 in total sets and only Khachanov managed to even force a single tiebreaker. Pella is making a quick turnaround after coming back from two sets down to stun Milos Raonic in a thrilling five-setter. It has been an incredible run for the Argentine, but it likely ends here. RBA is on fire, and outside of the Big 3 there may be no one on tour better at completely taking out an opponent’s legs. Bautista Agut in 3: 7-6(6), 7-5, 6-1.
Cheryl: Pella may have had the most impressive first four rounds in the entire men’s draw. He not only stunned 2018 finalist Kevin Anderson in the third round, but he also came back in the round of 16 to take out the 15th-seeded Raonic. The Argentine isn’t exactly a Wimbledon specialist, either. He’s played three other times, with a pair of first-round exits and a third-round result to show for his efforts. RBA’s first-week run wasn’t quite as impressive as Pella’s, but was close. He ousted Khachanov and then clobbered Benoit Paire on Monday. RBA has a 2-0 record over Pella and the Spaniard’s matches have been far more routine. Pella will fight hard, but RBA should come through his quarterfinal. Bautista Agut in 4: 6-4, 5-7, 6-4, 6-2.
Mert: Can Pella pull another one again? More importantly, does he have enough stamina left to take out a player who will surely not go down without a battle? You don’t win easy matches, nor do you get to win points short-cut points against Bautista Agut. You win, but you will suffer. Or he outlasts you, out-rallies you, and exhausts you. Pella has his hands full. RBA is the only player in the quarterfinals not to have lost a set. He will continue that streak today after a close first set. Bautista Agut in 3: 7-5, 6-3, 6-2.
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Fedal next!☺ Rafa will.up his game against Fed.
We Rafa fans have to be pretty happy he has got through his block on grass. Onwards and upwards!☺
Vamos Rafa! In the semis again! He was good enough today to win in straight sets. Ricky had it right!
Fedal again!
Big hug nny!!☺
True Amy. To think that we were staring at the Long hard draw for Rafa the day the Wimbledon draw was made known! Rafa has come a long way, navigating through such a dangerous route to the SF.
Two more matches to go I hope, just hope that Rafa will be successful and be the last man standing come Sunday.
Yes indeed lucky! We have to be proud of him !☺
Vaaaaammmmmooooossssss!
No way was Querrey going to beat Rafa. His serve is his only weapon and only his first serve. His ROS is appalling and he has no game.
SHFTW! (So happy for the win!) Fedal next! Woooot! Vamos Rafa!! Congrats to all the Rafans here. And to the Fedfans!
Rafa did not have a great serving day, but at least he KNOWS he has to serve better going forward. All of them save for Bastista had the hibigibies in the first set. These guys are super nervous and there’s immense pressure on them to perform. There is a lot riding on this for them. Cut Rafa some slack. He knows he’s playing well so there is no reason to think that he will lose to Fed based on his serving today! He’s a champ for a reason! Kei and Goffin gave up after set 1, Rafa will NEVER do that!!!
C’mon Rafa, bring that trophy home!!! I know you can do it!
Yes Mona!too much criticism of Rafa when both Nole and Fed had poor first sets. I expect all 3 to up their games next round. It’s very hard to play a big server on grass
I just came here n am surprised after seeing the score here to read Rafa did not play that well..what did he do bad? It’s not as if fed played great either against kei.
He didn’t serve well sanju. But to win in straights against a big server is a fine achievement and I am very happy and proud of him☺
Did he drop his serve multiple times ?
Only once when serving for first set! But he did well on second try obviously
Exactly Sanju! The way I look at it, Rafa is getting battle tested bcos in the upcoming rounds he will leave it all out there, and that is something he has done his entire career!! I always said from the beginning that Rafa will win Wimbledon, there is that fire in his eyes! He’s here to make a statement, esp after the roof and the seeding debacle!
In the semis both Rafa and Roger will be nervous in first set, but Rafa will find a way to win, especially if he wins first set! I will be shocked if Rafa loses to Roger, even if its grass, to me it matters not!!
I think we are too hard on Rafa at times. He was shaky in that first set but settled down and served better in the next two sets. It is very tricky to play a big server on grass. But Rafa beat him in straight sets. No tiebreaks. Rafa had no trouble breaking Querrey’s serve.
It was a very good performance from Rafa! He got stronger as the match went on. Rafa will know what he has to do against Fed. I expect him to bring his best.
At the moment Novak is the one thats cold and ruthless. Rafa has everything it takes to win but is more nervous messing up serving for the set and not holding easy. Fed I dont know if is as strong as 2017. I would give both a 50-50 chance to beat each other. Nadal may hold an edge believing again his game plan works.
But no I dont think either have a chance at Novak in the finals. He just is mentally superior at the moment. but as a fan, I would hope Rafa gets through all the way. Not impossible.
Rubbish PK!! Rafa can definitely.beat Nole! You are overestimating him. The real advantage Nole has is a very easy draw.
Rafa has played better tennis overall than Nole this wimby. McEnroe was saying precisely that yesterday and he is right.
Let’s see how Novak handles agut . He has lost the last 3 times against him . I don’t think he will roll over agut.
I hope you are right :). Novak ups his game when it comes to Rafa but if Rafa stands up to him like he did last year, I would be happy and yes would be a treat if he wins ( assuming he is over Fed) .
But whos not to say Novak wont lose to RBA..
He won’t lose to agut . It’s a centre court where agut has never played. The occasion can get to him. However his game style troubles Novak n his flat shots,his speed and balls coming back surely will result in a long match hopefully
What has Novak done in past 5 months after AO to justify being mentally superior ? The biggest moment where he was needed to be mentally strong at french..he totally messed up. So what mental strength are we talking about ?
Novak has the edge that’s it against both but both roger n Rafa can beat him..Rafa with slight better chance as fed can get weary as match goes on with Novak getting balls back all time.
Rafa is on a run of 17 wins as well. Winning begets winning!!
Uh Huh! I agree!
Its just body language Sanju. Look at how he came back down a break in the first set. absolute demolition in the second with Goffin. I am not saying he wins every match. Honestly back of my mind I hope RBA takes him down.
I just dont like Nadals chances. Maybe its the match up. Maybe I am just being a stupid fan getting nervous everytime he goes break point down .. Its quite normal to have ups and downs and our perspective changes after he wins as against watching him struggle during the match.
Agreed a lot of us are extra critical. Even today its the quarters and its not like Sam is a nobody. Few hours earlier Sam was dangerous having taken down Novak at his peak and now its like all he has is his serves. its how we are prior and post a result.
But lets face it. How many times has Novak beaten Rafa easy vs the other way around. The Aus Open final was a shocker. I had high hopes Nadal was in a perfect run to take Novak down but oh well it happens. I am happy and appreciative Nadal got his French and in his second consecutive Wimbledon semi. A couple of matches goes his way, I will be super happy.
Goffin started well but just choked under pressure, and that was it!! He just gave up, even the commies were frustrated!! So of course Nole made him pay, Goffin posed no resistance so Novak looked deadly!!
Who exactly has Novak faced?! None of those donkeys gave Novak a test. He has a free pass to the finals, well save for Agut, but chances Novak may win! If Goffin had more fire in his belly he could have taken a set, but he gave up after losing first set, hence made Novak look good!! Querry just did not have the tools to bother Rafa, except his serve!
Same way ppl were predicting Querry is in for a chance, has great serve blah blah blah! Tennis is always about ‘on the day’!! Rafa wins in str8ts, not ONE tie-break!
Rafa for the trophy!!! Vamos!!
Yep, never in doubt. Winning 6-2 6-2 against Sam is very impressive.
Wow, do we actually have a Fedal semi at Wimbledon?!
It will be a nice sunny day and I can only imagine the excitement.
So who is going to prevail?
VR, I know, but I’m not going to tell you, lol!!!
Is it sunny ..amy ? Sun means Rafa smiles
Rafa has to compensate for India’s horrible loss today at WC cricket
And he did. I was afraid I was going to have a bad day after India lost. Maybe I was being a lil too confident with Rafa. But thank God. Rafa played well enough to have a reasonably straight forward straight set win. He isnt tired. having a good decent run into the semis. a lil mental edge with winning the last match with Fed. Pretty much in a good place for now.
By compensate I mean win wimby not the qtrs 🙂
For now there is good hope he might. Let’s relax for a day. Our collective energy seems to help.hopefully he gets two more wins. He certainly deserves one more Wimbledon. Nite all
Yes it Will be warm and sunny on Friday sanju!☺ Lots of extra spin!
vr,
Aren’t you going to post your thoughts on who will win?
I wouldn’t go as far as to say I’d be “shocked” if Fed wins against Rafa, but I would be surprised. If it were almost any other year since 2010, then I wouldn’t be that surprised. It’s a different story now. Fed will be retired by August of next year (or whenever the Olympics are). This match is Rafa’s to lose. Maybe I would even feel a little differently if the court was playing quicker, but it’s actually the opposite. I don’t care how well Fed is still serving and playing at the net for almost 38- you cannot be lacking from the back of the court as much as he is now if you want to beat Rafa at a major. Again, I don’t know if I could quite use the word “shocked” yet, but I would absolutely be surprised. And I never would have been surprised by Fed beating Rafa at Wimbledon had it happened any other times in recent history.
One thing is for sure, as far as Fed kid concerned- he absolutely cannot afford to start out poorly like he did today and in his first round match. Before this year’s RG, I cannot remember the last time Fed failed to win one of the first two sets at a major- maybe AO 2016 against Novak? But it’s different now. Rafa is still at an extremely high level, and Fed is about to retire. He better win that first set if he wants to have any realistic shot.
The commies and BBC are mad with joy at the thought of a Fedal semi-final. Will.have huge viewing numbers. They are getting so excited that there is a danger they may spontaneously combust come Friday!
https://www.wimbledon.com/en_GB/video/interviews.html
Thanks Elizabeth , loved Aga too, good to see you here, and the rest of the crew 🙂 ….
Amy lol 🙂
I only saw third set of Nadal-Querrey. I didn’t think Rafa looked as good as he has in previous few rounds. And I thought Querrey was well below his best. Fed match I also only saw 4th set. Fed looked good to me but also not his best, and his inability to convert break chances was a concern.
That said, even with this being slower grass, it’s still grass and Fed still has the edge, as long as he serves well. But it’s slight, imo. This is the best Nadal has played on grass for a long, long time. He’s playing pretty similar tennis to Fed, actually, with a serve not quite as good but a baseline game that is a bit better. A lot will come down to the ROS and the first strike after serve.
A lot of people are mentioning the SF match at RG last month, but more relevant, imo, is the previous 5 match win streak Fed had, and particularly AO 2017. Even at RG, he played Rafa very evenly for two sets, much more than the scoreline indicates. But Fed didn’t serve well when he held game points; that was really the difference, probably due to the wind, which Rafa handled much better. I think he will serve well in this match, and that will be enough. Fed in 4, maybe 5.
Saw the match against Querrey. I didn’t expect much from the guy. He’s a humble man, total respect for him, but he played well only in the 1st set. Not very good at rallying, somehow similar to Isner. And of his 1st serve percentage is below 60 against Rafa, that’s not enough. Kyrgios still better, but a bit mentally unstable.
Ok, excited for this one. Hope Fed stays cool, no need to get emotional and start strong, aggressive.
Going forward, Rafa will have a lot more confidence against big serves, lol!
Rafa gets more dangerous in the latter part of GS! This semi final match will be brutal, but for who, lol!
Fed had a hard time vs Kei, against Rafa it’ll be worse for him.
Rafa is able to handle big serves and great serves throughout the event so he’s ready for Fed.