Wimbledon final expert picks: Djokovic vs. Murray

July 6, 2013 Ricky Match previews, Predictions 96

Sunday’s Wimbledon final pits top two seeds Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray against each other in what will be their fourth meeting in a Grand Slam title match. A three-time panel chooses sides and previews the action.

Chris Skelton (@ChrisSkelton87): The rivalry between Djokovic and Murray has unfolded mostly on hard courts–the best surface for both men. A key exception came last year at the Olympics, when Murray swept a semifinal from the Serb in straight sets to set up his gold medal. Standing tall against two previous nemeses that week, Djokovic and Roger Federer, Murray proved that he could overcome the pressure of playing on home soil for national pride. All the same, one sensed that the Scot would need to win a major other than Wimbledon before taking home what his compatriots view as the ultimate prize. Having lost his first four major finals, Murray finally snapped Great Britain’s title drought at majors with a five-set victory over Djokovic at the US Open last fall. Although Djokovic has recaptured the upper hand in their rivalry by winning their last three meetings, their head-to-head has seen plenty of abrupt momentum shifts and sudden spurts.

Murray will gain confidence from those two marquee victories over Djokovic last year, one on the same court where he will face the Serb on Sunday. Moreover, his appearance in the 2012 Wimbledon final will have inoculated him to some of the tension that weighed on him then. Competing gallantly in a four-set loss to Federer, Murray has learned what it feels like to contest the final at his home major and will not approach this match with the same wide-eyed uncertainty. While Djokovic holds a clear edge over Murray on clay, the balance of power shifts the opposite direction on grass. The home hope has reached four consecutive finals on grass, arguably Djokovic’s worst surface, and their Olympics meeting revealed two key areas in which he surpasses his rival. Those areas, his first serve and his forecourt play, reap more rewards on grass than they do on the increasingly slow hard courts. Meanwhile, Djokovic’s key strengths of fluid defense and a smooth transition game shine less on grass than they do elsewhere.

Through the last few rounds, Djokovic has burst out of the gate impressively before coming back to earth. By contrast, Murray has started slowly in his last two matches before gradually settling into his groove. I expect him to bounce back from early adversity and finally lay Fred Perry’s ghost to rest. Murray 4-6, 7-6, 6-3, 7-5.

Steen (Tennis East Coast): I predicted this final at the start of the tournament, and again at the start of week two, and I’m sticking with my original prediction: Murray to break the British drought and topple Djokovic for the second time in a slam. In all of his matches this week, he has shown mental fortitude and generally the positive attitude needed to get past the Djokovic challenge, and he has avoided many of his common issues–including mentally disappearing for long periods in matches.

Against Fernando Verdasco and Jerzy Janowicz, specifically, Murray wasn’t always playing the best. But he kept pushing through and didn’t allow himself to get run over. Eventually his competition softened up and he broke through. Furthermore, I think the fans will be a factor and they seem to be helping Murray rather than dragging him down, because they seem to have the same self belief that he now does in terms of winning slams at this point. As for the Djokovic side of things, he has played well and avoided much difficulty except for not closing out Del Potro in four sets and being pushed to five, but I think his stamina level should be fine and I expect him to be at or near his best. However, an edge goes to an inspired Murray in the key moments and I’ll pick him in five. Murray 4-6, 6-4, 7-6, 3-6, 7-5.

 
Ricky: Strictly looking at the numbers, the edge goes to Djokovic. He owns an 11-7 record in the overall head-to-head series and he is 3-1 against Murray at Grand Slams, 2-1 in slam finals, and 5-3 against the Scot since the beginning of 2012. Whereas Murray is a mere 1-5 in major title matches despite triumphing at the 2012 US Open, Djokovic boasts an impressive 6-4 mark in such matches.

Taking current form at this installment of Wimbledon into account, Djokovic still appears to have the advantage. The world No. 1 is coming off a five-setter against Del Potro, but he has generally been more impressive than Murray this fortnight. Djokovic did not drop a set prior to the semifinals and Del Potro arguably would have defeated any other player in the world given his performance on Friday in what was nothing short of an epic encounter. Murray dropped two sets to Verdasco and also lost his opener to Janowicz before needing to come back from a 4-1 third-set deficit in order to avoid what would have been at best a five-set victory. Murray played well in those two matches, but neither match came close to rivaling Djokovic-Delpo. Verdasco’s level dipped considerably and Janowicz basically disappeared after giving the break back midway through set three.

Djokovic is the best returner and baseline player in the sport, and as if that isn’t enough his serve is also on fire right now. He blasted 22 aces (compared to Del Potro’s four) in the semis and for the tournament he has 76 aces compared to just seven double-faults. His serve percentage has been at least 61 percent in each of his last four matches, including 74 against Jeremy Chardy and 69 vs. Del Potro. Still, for reasons mentioned by Steen and Chris (especially the surface, the home-court advantage, and a slam title in his pocket), Murray is going to make it difficult. Djokovic 6-3, 6-7, 6-3, 5-7, 6-4.

[polldaddy poll=7230771]

41 Comments on Wimbledon final expert picks: Djokovic vs. Murray

  1. Certainly would like andy to win, as would all of England, but I think Joker has the edge, and he’s just as hungry as Andy.

    Reply

      • Hey, it’s all good! Everyone is entitled to their opinions. I just felt that Murray was more mentally tough with Lendl’s help. I also thought that Nole wasn’t playing as well as others thought. If he was at his best, then the semifinal with Delpo on a bad knee and not the fittest guy, should have been over in four sets. I thought that Murray could get the job done this time. He stepped it up in the latter half of his semifinal match with Jerzy. That’s when he played his best tennis.

        Reply

  6. Congrats Muzza and Muzz fans.

    Will miss TT but hope to see old friends here.

    #NewHome
    #AKAconspirator
    #HumbleHashtags

    Reply

  7. It shows me as nativenewyorker7. But it’s still me from good old TT!

    I hope that we can make a new home. I will always miss TT, but hope that people decide to come here and post. It’s really easy.

    Reply

    • Hi everybody!
      Seem to have made it! Hooray!
      Really hope this is a user friendly troll free zone. Have stopped sobbing and shaking but am still pinching myself! Did THAT really happen 🙂 And, no, I don’t have a hangover….
      Looking forward to more gr8 tennis this Summer.
      Thanks to the Rickster for giving us a lifeline 🙂

      Reply

      • deuce,

        So glad to see you here! I answered you on tt. No way do I want the trolls here at all! It cost us luckystar and probably some others. I have to believe that Ricky doesn’t want them here either.

        I would expect you to continue the celebration for quite a while. I don’t know that you will come down from that high for a while. This is really such a great story. It’s going to be quiet until the Roger’s Cup. I know that there will be some smaller tournaments, but I just can’t get too excited after this.

        Reply

  9. vamosrafa,

    You’re here! YAY!!! I say let’s give this site a chance. With at little work, it could turn out to be great.

    Just please no more trolls! We still want to talk tennis.

    Reply

  10. Hi Ricky and hallo to all the TEXTs 😉
    Was going to wait till tomorrow but couldn’t resist the temptation to see who was posting.

    Am still feeling euphoric about Andy’s Wimby Triumph. Imagine his clan’s celebrations tonight. Did anyone notice Kim hyperventilating in the final moments? I was imagining the newspaper headlines: ‘Andy wins Wimbledon but girlfriend suffers heart attack’.

    Reply

    • What is TEXTs? Is that ex-TT’ers? So nice to see you here!

      Oh and I did notice Kim hyperventilating in the final moments! I wondered if she was going to faint! It seemed to be almost too much for her.

      Also, you asked about facebook and twitter. I didn’t want to reveal anything on tt because someone we know all too well got in some final digs by posting right after you did. I don’t know if I want to reveal my twitter name or facebook name. This is public and anyone can read it.

      Reply

  11. Well, this starts to feel like TT lol. Ricky, please turn off the comment moderating made by you. It will make the blog more dynamic, plus I don’t considere its really necessary at the moment.

    Reply

  15. Im just hope Deuce, Alex and the rest can come along and enjoy the party! I hope I get used to theis site soon!!!

    Anyway, congrats to Muzz and cant wait for the hard court season to start!!!!

    Reply

      • We haven’t heard from lucky for a while now. She left because of the people who were attacking all the time. She came back once or twice to post a few times, but didn’t stay.

        I don’t know what will happen with rafaisthebest. She is climbing Mount Kilimanjaro and is out of touch. I think some people will be able to let her know what happened on tennis-x, because she also posted there.

        I have posted on tennistalk and tried to make sure that people know about this site.

        Reply

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.




Copyright © 2024 | MH Magazine WordPress Theme by MH Themes