Wimbledon best bets: Men’s quarterfinals

The men and women are playing on opposite days the rest of the way at Wimbledon, where Wednesday marks the first Men’s Day when it comes to singles. Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, and Rafael Nadal remain heavy favorites going into the quarterfinals.

Here are some of the best ATP bets for Wednesday and beyond:

(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (21) David Goffin

In recent times, the quarterfinal stage of Grand Slams is often the least interesting of all. Such is this era of “Big 3” dominance. Djokovic, Federer, and Nadal frequently go up against overmatched opponents, and there is a good chance that more of the same could continue at the All-England Club. Of Wednesday’s three matches that feature the top three players, this one—Djokovic vs. Goffin—will likely be the most competitive. It’s true that the top-seeded Serb has mostly cruised so far in SW19, but he needed four sets against Hubert Hurkacz in round two and the first two set scores were 7-5, 6-7(5). Goffin was completely dominant through two rounds and looked especially impressive in wins over Daniil Medvedev and Fernando Verdasco. The 23rd-ranked Belgian beat Djokovic the last time they faced each other, on the red clay of Monte-Carlo in 2017. Djokovic is in much different form now and still leads the head-to-head series 5-1, so he will almost certainly get the job done this time. But Goffin could make it interesting.

Pick: Over 31.5 games (-120)

(2) Roger Federer vs. (8) Kei Nishikori

In his last four major meetings with the Big 3 dating back to Wimbledon in 2018, Nishikori has simply been steamrolled. Thee Japanese world No. 7 took one set off Djokovic during the 2018 Wimbledon quarterfinals but lost the other three sets 6-3, 6-2, and 6-2. He got blown out by Djokovic 6-3, 6-4, 6-2 in the U.S. Open SFs, retired against Djokovic in the Australian Open QFs while trailing 6-1, 4-1, and got erased by Nadal 6-1, 6-1, 6-3 in the French Open QFs. Now it’s Federer’s turn, and it comes at the 37-year-old’s All-England Club stomping grounds. The eight-time Wimbledon winner has cruised so far this fortnight and he destroyed Matteo Berrettini 6-1, 6-2, 6-2 on Monday. Berrettini had previously been 10-1 on clay this summer.

Pick: Federer in 3 sets (-115)

Parlay: (3) Rafael Nadal vs. Sam Querrey and (23) Roberto Bautista Agut vs. (26) Guido Pella

Roll with the Spaniards here. Nadal has been bullish through four rounds, completely crushing three opponents and winning the best match of the tournament to date against the most dangerous unseeded player in Nick Kyrgios. Yes, Kyrgios is even more dangerous than Querrey. This is the 56th-ranked American’s third trip to the Wimbledon quarters in the last four years, but he had previously been struggling in 2019 and suffered a discouraging 6-3, 6-4 loss to Taylor Fritz in the Eastbourne final. Nadal has won his opening sets 6-3, 6-3, 6-2, and 6-2 at this event, while Querrey is coming off a tough fourth-rounder against Tennys Sandgren. The third seed should jump on the underdog early and often. As for Bautista Agut, he is looking like a good bet for the semis. He is 12-0 in sets through four matches and has been pushed to a tiebreaker only once. Pella, meanwhile, is coming off a five-setter against Milos Raonic and has never played in the QFs of a slam.

Pick: Nadal to win first set (-350) and Bautista Agut to win (-500)

Futures: Odds to win the title

Novak Djokovic -155
Rafael Nadal +300
Roger Federer +300
Roberto Bautista Agut +3300
Sam Querrey +4000
David Goffin +5000
Kei Nishikori +5000
Guido Pella +6600

Djokovic probably should win this tournament as the world No. 1 and defending champion; plus, he is also in the friendlier half of the draw opposite Federer and Nadal. But those odds are not great, whereas there is decent value on his two chief rivals. At present, another Federer vs. Nadal showdown in the semis is shaping up to be an absolute blockbuster. The Spanish southpaw dominated 6-3, 6-4, 6-2 at Roland Garros, but grass obviously gives the Swiss a much better chance. That being said, this grass appears to be playing slow enough such that Nadal may still have a slight edge. And based on respective current form, Djokovic wouldn’t be a huge favorite in the final.

Best value: Nadal +300

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