U.S. Open SF preview and prediction: Medvedev vs. Dimitrov

It will be the first Grand Slam semifinal without any member of the Big 3 since Wimbledon in 2018 (Kevin Anderson vs. John Isner) when Danill Medvedev and Dimitrov collide in an improbable matchup at the U.S. Open on Friday evening.

Medvedev’s presence in the semis is not entirely shocking aside from the fact that he found himself in world No. 1 Novak Djokovic’s section of the bracket. Djokovic, however, retired while trailing Stan Wawrinka two sets to love in the fourth round and then Medvedev defeated Wawrinka 7-6(6), 6-3, 3-6, 6-1 on Wednesday afternoon. The 23-year-old Russian’s energy-sapping, crowd-enraging run also includes victories over Prajnesh Gunneswaran, Hugo Dellien, Feliciano Lopez, and Dominik Koepfer.

One more win would propel Medvedev into an incredible fourth consecutive title match. He finished runner-up in Washington, D.C. and Montreal to begin his hard-court summer before lifting the trophy in Cincinnati.

“I am surprised; I am surprised,” the soon-to-be world No. 4 admitted. “That’s what I’ve been working for all my life, especially the last two and a half years. That’s where I’ve been going step by step. I was improving my rankings. But I am still really surprised with the way this last four weeks have been going. I mean, so many circumstances. Usually when you make a final like I did in Washington, come to Montreal, you’re a little bit tired. You’re like saying to yourself, ‘Okay, I’ve done already a final, maybe this tournament is not that important, I’m a little bit tired. Then I’ve done final of a Masters, which was the best result in my life so far. Coming to Cincinnati, same…. Again I was like, ‘Okay, now I’ve done the best result of my life, maybe I should take this tournament easy.’ Then I won it.

“That’s what I’ve been working for. That’s what I’ve dreamed of. I’ve achieved some of what I’ve dreamt.”

Dimitrov’s summer had been a nightmare, but his U.S. Open has developed into something that not a single person could have expected. The 28-year-old Bulgarian was a disastrous 1-7 in his eight most recent matches prior to arriving in New York City, where he has suddenly reeled off wins over Andreas Seppi, Kamil Majchrzak, Alex de Minaur, and Roger Federer–the latter in five sets on Wednesday night.

Dimitrov has been both lucky and good this fortnight, as he got a walkover from Borna Coric in round two, Majchrzak was a lucky loser, and Federer was dealing with an upper-back injury. Still, the world No. 78 has been showcasing his best tennis since winning the Nitto ATP Finals in 2017.

“I kept on believing in the process, kept on working, kept on trying to improve whatever else I had to improve on my end,” Dimitrov explained. “I really controlled the things that I could. I think that’s as simple as that. Sometimes the most simple things are hardest. Yeah, it was not a pretty time (over the past two years). I’m not going to lie.

“It was that low that I don’t even want to go there any more. It was just obviously injury, losing points, ranking. That’s the lowest point of any player. I think the past six, seven months have been pretty rough for me. But I had somebody to lean on, my friends, my family. I kept on believing again in the work, the rehab I had to put behind my shoulder, the exercise, the practice, fixing up the racket a little bit. There were so many things I had to adjust in such a small but big period of time. Next thing you know, you’re almost end of the year, you have a result like that. It’s pretty special to me.”

It could continue, too, as Medvedev may not be 100 percent due to a left-quad issue and general fatigue. That being said, two days off instead of one will do the favorite a world of good. For both good and bad reasons, Medvedev has arguably been the biggest story on the ATP Tour this summer–especially at the U.S. Open–and it only feels right for him to make final number four in a row.

If Medvedev is close to 100 percent, he will likely be too consistent and win too many free points on serve for Dimitrov.

Pick: Medvedev in 4

[polldaddy poll=10400699]

28 Comments on U.S. Open SF preview and prediction: Medvedev vs. Dimitrov

  1. If both players are healthy, I see this going five sets. I give Medvedev the slight edge, but Dimitrov really impressed me against Fed, and if he brings his best he could definitely pull off the upset. I think the key will be Med’s health. Medvedev in 5.

  2. I’m going for Dimi here but if Rafa makes it to the final I would much prefer him to play Medvedev than Dimitrov who, I think, has far more weapons than Medvedev.

  3. 1.50 for Medvedevhas to be one of the best value bets of the tournament. Dimitrov will have to play even.better than he did against Fed and Medvedev will have to have a very off day for Dimitrov to win IMO.

    Medvedev is well rested now too and Dimitrov will likely turn up flat after beating Fed where he was running on adrenalin.

    Medvedev 3-0

  4. This match should be interesting. My damn bracket pick is Medvedev and I think he’s too clever for Dimitrov. I’ll be happy if Grigor wins but I just think the Mad Russian is mentally tougher. And it was good to see Grigor win his match vs Federer but I can’t trust Grigor to do more than take a set maybe. Prove me wrong, Grigor!!

    Medvedev in 3 or 4 or preferably 5.

  5. ?? I see a poll. It’s overwhelmingly in favor of Medvedev. I think Dimi at his best could take Medvedev, but I don’t think he’s there yet.

  6. It would appear that Dimi has come to play. My thoughts on this match are pretty similar to Elizabeth’s. I think the obvious pick is Medvedev, but Dimi could make this interesting.

    So far Dimi has played very well. It appears that the win over Fed gave him confidence and belief. He is playing like it.

    I don’t like the Mad Russian. Love that name! Perfect! I do respect his game and talent. But it seems that everyone is on the Medvedev bandwagon. I tend to be a little skeptical and cautious with the supposed next big thing in men’s tennis.

    • Sorry NNY

      Almost immediately after I told you I was here for you during the last Rafa match, I fell asleep. Again, I’m sleepy – and don’t know how long I’ll last, lol

      Set point Grigor. But Medvedev is good at fighting those off. Good tennis by both!

    • That’s y i can’t make a call. I feel Dimi played the better tennis in the first set but all of a sudden Dimi allowed errors to creep into his game, sigh! Hope he can recover and make this an interesting five set encounter, lol!!

      Medvedev is remaining cool and calm and waiting for his opportunities which obviously paid off!

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