Novak Djokovic will be bidding for history–the first calendar-year Grand Slam in men’s singles since 1969–when he goes up against Daniil Medvedev in the U.S. Open final on Sunday afternoon. Djokovic will also be trying to break a tie with Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal atop the all-time major titles list.
Medvedev, meanwhile, is still eyeing his first slam title.
In other words, it doesn’t get much bigger than this. The question is: will the quality and drama of the match live up to its prestige?
Arguments can easily be made for both sides. Djokovic is the obvious favorite as the world No. 1 and 20-time major champion, but he has not exactly been dominant this fortnight. The 34-year-old has dropped six sets in five different matches while losing the opener four times in a row (to Kei Nishikori, Jenson Brooksby, Matteo Berrettini, and Alexander Zverev). In Friday night’s semifinals, Zverev was the first player to take Djokovic to five but the German eventually succumbed 4-6, 6-2, 6-4, 4-6, 6-2.
Medvedev will also be encouraged by his own current form. The second-ranked Russian is 14-1 in 15 matches since the Olympics, a hot stretch that includes the Toronto title and victories in New York over Richard Gasquet, Dominik Koepfer, Pablo Andujar, Dan Evans, Botic Van de Zandschulp, and Felix Auger-Aliassime. Only Van de Zandschulp has even managed to take a set.
Finally, the head-to-head series is much more favorable for Medvedev than it is for most of Djokovic’s opponents. The 25-year-old is a respectable 3-5 lifetime with a pair of Masters 1000 victories in 2019 and a win at the 2020 Nitto ATP Finals.
But that is pretty much where the good news for Medvedev ends. The story is a much different one at slams, where Djokovic is 2-0 against his fast-rising rival. A 2019 Australian Open encounter went the Serb’s way via a 6-4, 6-7(5), 6-2, 6-3 decision before he completely dominated 7-5, 6-2, 6-2 in the 2021 final at Melbourne Park.
As the latter score indicates, Djokovic simply takes his game–especially from a mental standpoint–to a different level on the biggest stages in the world. After thrashing Medvedev in Melbourne earlier this year, he overcame Stefanos Tsitsipas from two sets down at the French Open and beat Matteo Berrettini in four sets at Wimbledon.
Djokovic is letting opponents hang around, but nobody has been good enough to deliver a knockout blow. There is no reason to think the top seed will let that happen at the last hurdle between himself and history.
“(I’m) all in; let’s do it,” he said following his semifinal win over Zverev. “I’m going to put my heart, my soul, my body, and my head into that one. I’m going to treat the next match like it’s the last match of my career.”
Words won’t win the match, but that kind of mentality will. With so much at stake, bet against Djokovic at your own risk.
Pick: Djokovic in 4
WWW?
Med in 5
Al. Didn’t u say few days back if djoko goes to final ,he wins ? What changed ?
If I had to bet on it would be Djoko.
But I can see a good case for a Med win as well .
I guess I’m hoping it’s not one-sided as I like both players
Well said.
Sanju your right .I remember thinking Zverev was the big banana skin .Once past him, Nole would win the final .
I still give Med a chance but no more than 40 percent
Has anyone seen who Medvedev has beaten this year after the Australian Open? Based on ranking his best wins has been either PCB(Cincinnati Masters) or Herbie(Toronto). He is coming into the US Open final without beating a top 10 player in the entire US Hard court series. If not mistaken, his last top 10 victory was at the Australian Open(Tsitsipas). Don’t think Djoker is losing this one. You can only play who is in front of you, but don’t think he is at the level of 2019, 2020 or even Australian open 2020.
Sorry meant Australian 2021
“But that is pretty much where the good news for Medvedev ends.”
Not really, unless you’re accustomed to cherry-picking.
There’s a significant age difference which may or may not be a factor. Djokovic doesn’t look like a typical 34-year-old player nearing the end of his career, but you can’t ignore the historical data that post-34 major victories are few and far between.
If there’s ever a player to test this age-performance theory, Medvedev would be it.
This matchup has historically been a difficult one for Djokovic because they have very similar styles. Medvedev claims his performance at the AO was out of character, and Djokovic used a tactic that he wasn’t anticipating. He said he’s learned from that encounter.
Medvedev has performed far better on US hard courts than the AO because of the extra pace he can get on his serve and groundstrokes.
The cumulative time Djokovic has spent on the court has to be a factor as well, especially coming off a 5-setter.
I’m not saying Medevedv will win, but I think there’s enough evidence to build a strong case for a Medvedev victory, and he has to be a chance if he can play a tactically sound match. Djokovic defeated a declining Nadal at the French, and there were no serious contenders at Wimbledon, but here we have a US Open final where the contender is a genuine threat.
My data suggest this should go to 5-sets, and so does IBM Watson, which has limited reliability, IMO (it gave Radacanu almost no chance of winning her main draw matches).
Medvedev’s stats against FAA were impressive. This has upset written all over it.
Id say pressure of the occasion is a big factor-but if anyone can handle it, Nole can.
Exactly, and Medvedev probable thinks he’s got nothing to lose which is another factor in his favour.
and Medvedev is a proven 5-setter performer, unlike Zverev. This should be Djokovic’s toughest test of the tournament.
5-set
A confirmed 21st slam, no other logical outcome. Just pass him the trophy.
Similar to 2003/4 weak era. One is too strong, the rest is just average. Zero competition in 4 slams this year.
Going w/the upset….Med in 4.
Well played.