Expert picks at the U.S. Open are wrapping up with the men’s singles final on Sunday. It’s Novak Djokovic vs. Daniil Medvedev, with history on the line. A three-team panel previews the action and makes its predictions.
(1) Novak Djokovic vs. Daniil Medvedev
Ricky: I can see valid arguments on both sides. Djokovic has not been dominant this fortnight, Medvedev is 14-1 since Wimbledon, and their head-to-head history has been relatively competitive. But I think all of that goes out the door in this situation: not only a major final, but also one in which Djokovic is facing someone other than Rafael Nadal or Roger Federer. And it’s not just any major final; the calendar-year Grand Slam and 21 slam titles are on the line. Nobody has ever been as tough mentally under these kinds of conditions as the 34-year-old Serb. Oh, yeah; he’s not too shabby physically, either. Medvedev is not the kind of player who can hit Djokovic off the court; the Russian is going to have to beat him at his own game. That just isn’t happening in this particular match. It’s too important for Djokovic; it’s an opportunity he probably won’t come close to letting slip away. Djokovic in 4: 7-6(4), 6-4, 4-6, 6-2.
Cheryl: It’s not that Medvedev can’t beat Djokovic. The world No. 1 holds a 5-3 record over the underdog–hardly an emphatic head-to-head edge. It’s just that Medvedev won’t. History is on the line on Sunday. BIG history. A calendar-year Grand Slam. It’s the kind of moment for which Novak Djokovic is uniquely suited. It’s no accident that the player with probably the most impressive mental toughness of all time is poised to do the unthinkable. He isn’t the greatest server on tour, but he’s probably the best server under pressure. He brings the heat exactly when he needs to. There is also the fact that Djokovic just gave Medvedev a shellacking in the final of the Australian Open. This one is going to be more competitive. Djokovic actually hasn’t played as well as he’s capable over this fortnight. The Russian may even take an early lead, but in a best-of-five match on a hard court, it’s simply impossible to pick against Djokovic. Djokovic in 5: 3-6, 7-5, 7-6, 5-7, 6-2.
Pete (Tennis Acumen): Prior to the start of the U.S. Open, it was being reported that the speed of the courts–particularly Ashe–was faster than anyone could ever recall. This fact “may” be relevant during stretches in this final since it was in Cincinnati two years ago that Medvedev was able to utilize the quick courts there to his advantage to defeat Djokovic and then continue to play exceptional tennis since that time. The speedy courts in New York have been favorable to the Russian, as he has dropped just one set in reaching the final. Djokovic continues to take his time in getting into the flow of his game, as he has inexplicably dropped the opening set in his last four matches. Despite the fact that the last six meetings have been split, it will come down to the ability to focus for more than three hours. Medvedev has had the unfortunate ability to lose his focus (disagreeing with the chair umpire, running into TV cameras on the court, and destroying racquets), which has cost him dearly at times this year. Meanwhile, Djokovic has his eyes firmly on the grandest of prizes that has not been seen on the ATP tour since 1969–the calendar-year Grand Slam. One more win and that monumental accomplishment will be his. Novak Djokovic will not be denied. Djokovic in 5: 4-6, 7-5, 6-3, 2-6, 6-3.
“It’s hard for Novak to hurt the Russian with his “weapons” on Arthur Ashe, so he depended on his opponent missing often enough.”
This, I completely agree with; Djokovic’s formula relies mostly on his opponents missing. There’s nothing wrong with that but I personally have a bias towards players that go after their shots a bit more. Nadal and Federer were both great shot makers.
BTW, even if Djokovuc won the calendar Grand slam I don’t think it makes any difference to his first claim. People that understand the game know there isn’t an outright GOAT. It’s all relative and circumstantial.
Damn, spell check. “GOAT claim”